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There can be no winners in a US-China AI arms race

The United States and China are entangled in what many have dubbed an “AI arms race.”  In the early days of this standoff, US policymakers drove an agenda centered on “winning” the race, mostly from an economic perspective. In recent months, leading AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic got involved in pushing the narrative of “beating China” in what appeared to be an attempt to align themselves with the incoming Trump administration. The belief that the US can win in such a race was based mostly on the early advantage it had over China in advanced GPU compute resources and the effectiveness of AI’s scaling laws. But now it appears that access to large quantities of advanced compute resources is no longer the defining or sustainable advantage many had thought it would be. In fact, the capability gap between leading US and Chinese models has essentially disappeared, and in one important way the Chinese models may now have an advantage: They are able to achieve near equivalent results while using only a small fraction of the compute resources available to the leading Western labs.     The AI competition is increasingly being framed within narrow national security terms, as a zero-sum game, and influenced by assumptions that a future war between the US and China, centered on Taiwan, is inevitable. The US has employed “chokepoint” tactics to limit China’s access to key technologies like advanced semiconductors, and China has responded by accelerating its efforts toward self-sufficiency and indigenous innovation, which is causing US efforts to backfire. Recently even outgoing US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, a staunch advocate for strict export controls, finally admitted that using such controls to hold back China’s progress on AI and advanced semiconductors is a “fool’s errand.” Ironically, the unprecedented export control packages targeting China’s semiconductor and AI sectors have unfolded alongside tentative bilateral and multilateral engagements to establish AI safety standards and governance frameworks—highlighting a paradoxical desire of both sides to compete and cooperate.  When we consider this dynamic more deeply, it becomes clear that the real existential threat ahead is not from China, but from the weaponization of advanced AI by bad actors and rogue groups who seek to create broad harms, gain wealth, or destabilize society. As with nuclear arms, China, as a nation-state, must be careful about using AI-powered capabilities against US interests, but bad actors, including extremist organizations, would be much more likely to abuse AI capabilities with little hesitation. Given the asymmetric nature of AI technology, which is much like cyberweapons, it is very difficult to fully prevent and defend against a determined foe who has mastered its use and intends to deploy it for nefarious ends.  Given the ramifications, it is incumbent on the US and China as global leaders in developing AI technology to jointly identify and mitigate such threats, collaborate on solutions, and cooperate on developing a global framework for regulating the most advanced models—instead of erecting new fences, small or large, around AI technologies and pursing policies that deflect focus from the real threat. It is now clearer than ever that despite the high stakes and escalating rhetoric, there will not and cannot be any long-term winners if the intense competition continues on its current path. Instead, the consequences could be severe—undermining global stability, stalling scientific progress, and leading both nations toward a dangerous technological brinkmanship. This is particularly salient given the importance of Taiwan and the global foundry leader TSMC in the AI stack, and the increasing tensions around the high-tech island.  Heading blindly down this path will bring the risk of isolation and polarization, threatening not only international peace but also the vast potential benefits AI promises for humanity as a whole. Historical narratives, geopolitical forces, and economic competition have all contributed to the current state of the US-China AI rivalry. A recent report from the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, for example, frames the entire issue in binary terms, focused on dominance or subservience. This “winner takes all” logic overlooks the potential for global collaboration and could even provoke a self-fulfilling prophecy by escalating conflict. Under the new Trump administration this dynamic will likely become more accentuated, with increasing discussion of a Manhattan Project for AI and redirection of US military resources from Ukraine toward China.  Fortunately, a glimmer of hope for a responsible approach to AI collaboration is appearing now as Donald Trump recently  posted on January 17 that he’d restarted direct dialogue with Chairman Xi Jinping regarding various areas of collaboration, and given past cooperation should continue to be “partners and friends.” The outcome of the TikTok drama, putting Trump at odds with sharp China critics in his own administration and Congress, will be a preview of how his efforts to put US China relations on a less confrontational trajectory. The promise of AI for good Western mass media usually focuses on attention-grabbing issues described in terms like the “existential risks of evil AI.” Unfortunately, the AI safety experts who get the most coverage often recite the same narratives, scaring the public. In reality, no credible research shows that more capable AI will become increasingly evil. We need to challenge the current false dichotomy of pure accelerationism versus doomerism to allow for a model more like collaborative acceleration.  It is important to note the significant difference between the way AI is perceived in Western developed countries and developing countries. In developed countries the public sentiment toward AI is 60% to 70% negative, while in the developing markets the positive ratings are 60% to 80%. People in the latter places have seen technology transform their lives for the better in the past decades and are hopeful AI will help solve the remaining issues they face by improving education, health care, and productivity, thereby elevating their quality of life and giving them greater world standing. What Western populations often fail to realize is that those same benefits could directly improve their lives as well, given the high levels of inequity even in developed markets. Consider what progress would be possible if we reallocated the trillions that go into defense budgets each year to infrastructure, education, and health-care projects.  Once we get to the next phase, AI will help us accelerate scientific discovery, develop new drugs, extend our health span, reduce our work obligations, and ensure access to high-quality education for all. This may sound idealistic, but given current trends, most of this can become a reality within a generation, and maybe sooner. To get there we’ll need more advanced AI systems, which will be a much more challenging goal if we divide up compute/data resources and research talent pools. Almost half of all top AI researchers globally (47%) were born or educated in China, according to industry studies. It’s hard to imagine how we could have gotten where we are without the efforts of Chinese researchers. Active collaboration with China on joint AI research could be pivotal to supercharging progress with a major infusion of quality training data and researchers.  The escalating AI competition between the US and China poses significant threats to both nations and to the entire world. The risks inherent in this rivalry are not hypothetical—they could lead to outcomes that threaten global peace, economic stability, and technological progress. Framing the development of artificial intelligence as a zero-sum race undermines opportunities for collective advancement and security. Rather than succumb to the rhetoric of confrontation, it is imperative that the US and China, along with their allies, shift toward collaboration and shared governance. Our recommendations for policymakers: Reduce national security dominance over AI policy. Both the US and China must recalibrate their approach to AI development, moving away from viewing AI primarily as a military asset. This means reducing the emphasis on national security concerns that currently dominate every aspect of AI policy. Instead, policymakers should focus on civilian applications of AI that can directly benefit their populations and address global challenges, such as health care, education, and climate change. The US also needs to investigate how to implement a possible universal basic income program as job displacement from AI adoption becomes a bigger issue domestically.  2. Promote bilateral and multilateral AI governance. Establishing a robust dialogue between the US, China, and other international stakeholders is crucial for the development of common AI governance standards. This includes agreeing on ethical norms, safety measures, and transparency guidelines for advanced AI technologies. A cooperative framework would help ensure that AI development is conducted responsibly and inclusively, minimizing risks while maximizing benefits for all. 3. Expand investment in detection and mitigation of AI misuse. The risk of AI misuse by bad actors, whether through misinformation campaigns, telecom, power, or financial system attacks, or cybersecurity attacks with the potential to destabilize society, is the biggest existential threat to the world today. Dramatically increasing funding for and international cooperation in detecting and mitigating these risks is vital. The US and China must agree on shared standards for the responsible use of AI and collaborate on tools that can monitor and counteract misuse globally. 4. Create incentives for collaborative AI research. Governments should provide incentives for academic and industry collaborations across borders. By creating joint funding programs and research initiatives, the US and China can foster an environment where the best minds from both nations contribute to breakthroughs in AI that serve humanity as a whole. This collaboration would help pool talent, data, and compute resources, overcoming barriers that neither country could tackle alone. A global effort akin to the CERN for AI will bring much more value to the world, and a peaceful end, than a Manhattan Project for AI, which is being promoted by many in Washington today.  5. Establish trust-building measures. Both countries need to prevent misinterpretations of AI-related actions as aggressive or threatening. They could do this via data-sharing agreements, joint projects in nonmilitary AI, and exchanges between AI researchers. Reducing import restrictions for civilian AI use cases, for example, could help the nations rebuild some trust and make it possible for them to discuss deeper cooperation on joint research. These measures would help build transparency, reduce the risk of miscommunication, and pave the way for a less adversarial relationship. 6. Support the development of a global AI safety coalition. A coalition that includes major AI developers from multiple countries could serve as a neutral platform for addressing ethical and safety concerns. This coalition would bring together leading AI researchers, ethicists, and policymakers to ensure that AI progresses in a way that is safe, fair, and beneficial to all. This effort should not exclude China, as it remains an essential partner in developing and maintaining a safe AI ecosystem. 7. Shift the focus toward AI for global challenges. It is crucial that the world’s two AI superpowers use their capabilities to tackle global issues, such as climate change, disease, and poverty. By demonstrating the positive societal impacts of AI through tangible projects and presenting it not as a threat but as a powerful tool for good, the US and China can reshape public perception of AI.  Our choice is stark but simple: We can proceed down a path of confrontation that will almost certainly lead to mutual harm, or we can pivot toward collaboration, which offers the potential for a prosperous and stable future for all. Artificial intelligence holds the promise to solve some of the greatest challenges facing humanity, but realizing this potential depends on whether we choose to race against each other or work together.  The opportunity to harness AI for the common good is a chance the world cannot afford to miss. Alvin Wang Graylin Alvin Wang Graylin is a technology executive, author, investor, and pioneer with over 30 years of experience shaping innovation in AI, XR (extended reality), cybersecurity, and semiconductors. Currently serving as global vice president at HTC, Graylin was the company’s China president from 2016 to 2023. He is the author of Our Next Reality. Paul Triolo Paul Triolo is a partner for China and technology policy lead at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group. He advises clients in technology, financial services, and other sectors as they navigate complex political and regulatory matters in the US, China, the European Union, India, and around the world.

The United States and China are entangled in what many have dubbed an “AI arms race.” 

In the early days of this standoff, US policymakers drove an agenda centered on “winning” the race, mostly from an economic perspective. In recent months, leading AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic got involved in pushing the narrative of “beating China” in what appeared to be an attempt to align themselves with the incoming Trump administration. The belief that the US can win in such a race was based mostly on the early advantage it had over China in advanced GPU compute resources and the effectiveness of AI’s scaling laws.

But now it appears that access to large quantities of advanced compute resources is no longer the defining or sustainable advantage many had thought it would be. In fact, the capability gap between leading US and Chinese models has essentially disappeared, and in one important way the Chinese models may now have an advantage: They are able to achieve near equivalent results while using only a small fraction of the compute resources available to the leading Western labs.    

The AI competition is increasingly being framed within narrow national security terms, as a zero-sum game, and influenced by assumptions that a future war between the US and China, centered on Taiwan, is inevitable. The US has employed “chokepoint” tactics to limit China’s access to key technologies like advanced semiconductors, and China has responded by accelerating its efforts toward self-sufficiency and indigenous innovation, which is causing US efforts to backfire.

Recently even outgoing US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, a staunch advocate for strict export controls, finally admitted that using such controls to hold back China’s progress on AI and advanced semiconductors is a “fool’s errand.” Ironically, the unprecedented export control packages targeting China’s semiconductor and AI sectors have unfolded alongside tentative bilateral and multilateral engagements to establish AI safety standards and governance frameworks—highlighting a paradoxical desire of both sides to compete and cooperate. 

When we consider this dynamic more deeply, it becomes clear that the real existential threat ahead is not from China, but from the weaponization of advanced AI by bad actors and rogue groups who seek to create broad harms, gain wealth, or destabilize society. As with nuclear arms, China, as a nation-state, must be careful about using AI-powered capabilities against US interests, but bad actors, including extremist organizations, would be much more likely to abuse AI capabilities with little hesitation. Given the asymmetric nature of AI technology, which is much like cyberweapons, it is very difficult to fully prevent and defend against a determined foe who has mastered its use and intends to deploy it for nefarious ends. 

Given the ramifications, it is incumbent on the US and China as global leaders in developing AI technology to jointly identify and mitigate such threats, collaborate on solutions, and cooperate on developing a global framework for regulating the most advanced models—instead of erecting new fences, small or large, around AI technologies and pursing policies that deflect focus from the real threat.

It is now clearer than ever that despite the high stakes and escalating rhetoric, there will not and cannot be any long-term winners if the intense competition continues on its current path. Instead, the consequences could be severe—undermining global stability, stalling scientific progress, and leading both nations toward a dangerous technological brinkmanship. This is particularly salient given the importance of Taiwan and the global foundry leader TSMC in the AI stack, and the increasing tensions around the high-tech island. 

Heading blindly down this path will bring the risk of isolation and polarization, threatening not only international peace but also the vast potential benefits AI promises for humanity as a whole.

Historical narratives, geopolitical forces, and economic competition have all contributed to the current state of the US-China AI rivalry. A recent report from the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, for example, frames the entire issue in binary terms, focused on dominance or subservience. This “winner takes all” logic overlooks the potential for global collaboration and could even provoke a self-fulfilling prophecy by escalating conflict. Under the new Trump administration this dynamic will likely become more accentuated, with increasing discussion of a Manhattan Project for AI and redirection of US military resources from Ukraine toward China. 

Fortunately, a glimmer of hope for a responsible approach to AI collaboration is appearing now as Donald Trump recently  posted on January 17 that he’d restarted direct dialogue with Chairman Xi Jinping regarding various areas of collaboration, and given past cooperation should continue to be “partners and friends.” The outcome of the TikTok drama, putting Trump at odds with sharp China critics in his own administration and Congress, will be a preview of how his efforts to put US China relations on a less confrontational trajectory.

The promise of AI for good

Western mass media usually focuses on attention-grabbing issues described in terms like the “existential risks of evil AI.” Unfortunately, the AI safety experts who get the most coverage often recite the same narratives, scaring the public. In reality, no credible research shows that more capable AI will become increasingly evil. We need to challenge the current false dichotomy of pure accelerationism versus doomerism to allow for a model more like collaborative acceleration. 

It is important to note the significant difference between the way AI is perceived in Western developed countries and developing countries. In developed countries the public sentiment toward AI is 60% to 70% negative, while in the developing markets the positive ratings are 60% to 80%. People in the latter places have seen technology transform their lives for the better in the past decades and are hopeful AI will help solve the remaining issues they face by improving education, health care, and productivity, thereby elevating their quality of life and giving them greater world standing. What Western populations often fail to realize is that those same benefits could directly improve their lives as well, given the high levels of inequity even in developed markets. Consider what progress would be possible if we reallocated the trillions that go into defense budgets each year to infrastructure, education, and health-care projects. 

Once we get to the next phase, AI will help us accelerate scientific discovery, develop new drugs, extend our health span, reduce our work obligations, and ensure access to high-quality education for all. This may sound idealistic, but given current trends, most of this can become a reality within a generation, and maybe sooner. To get there we’ll need more advanced AI systems, which will be a much more challenging goal if we divide up compute/data resources and research talent pools. Almost half of all top AI researchers globally (47%) were born or educated in China, according to industry studies. It’s hard to imagine how we could have gotten where we are without the efforts of Chinese researchers. Active collaboration with China on joint AI research could be pivotal to supercharging progress with a major infusion of quality training data and researchers. 

The escalating AI competition between the US and China poses significant threats to both nations and to the entire world. The risks inherent in this rivalry are not hypothetical—they could lead to outcomes that threaten global peace, economic stability, and technological progress. Framing the development of artificial intelligence as a zero-sum race undermines opportunities for collective advancement and security. Rather than succumb to the rhetoric of confrontation, it is imperative that the US and China, along with their allies, shift toward collaboration and shared governance.

Our recommendations for policymakers:

  1. Reduce national security dominance over AI policy. Both the US and China must recalibrate their approach to AI development, moving away from viewing AI primarily as a military asset. This means reducing the emphasis on national security concerns that currently dominate every aspect of AI policy. Instead, policymakers should focus on civilian applications of AI that can directly benefit their populations and address global challenges, such as health care, education, and climate change. The US also needs to investigate how to implement a possible universal basic income program as job displacement from AI adoption becomes a bigger issue domestically. 
    • 2. Promote bilateral and multilateral AI governance. Establishing a robust dialogue between the US, China, and other international stakeholders is crucial for the development of common AI governance standards. This includes agreeing on ethical norms, safety measures, and transparency guidelines for advanced AI technologies. A cooperative framework would help ensure that AI development is conducted responsibly and inclusively, minimizing risks while maximizing benefits for all.
    • 3. Expand investment in detection and mitigation of AI misuse. The risk of AI misuse by bad actors, whether through misinformation campaigns, telecom, power, or financial system attacks, or cybersecurity attacks with the potential to destabilize society, is the biggest existential threat to the world today. Dramatically increasing funding for and international cooperation in detecting and mitigating these risks is vital. The US and China must agree on shared standards for the responsible use of AI and collaborate on tools that can monitor and counteract misuse globally.
    • 4. Create incentives for collaborative AI research. Governments should provide incentives for academic and industry collaborations across borders. By creating joint funding programs and research initiatives, the US and China can foster an environment where the best minds from both nations contribute to breakthroughs in AI that serve humanity as a whole. This collaboration would help pool talent, data, and compute resources, overcoming barriers that neither country could tackle alone. A global effort akin to the CERN for AI will bring much more value to the world, and a peaceful end, than a Manhattan Project for AI, which is being promoted by many in Washington today. 
    • 5. Establish trust-building measures. Both countries need to prevent misinterpretations of AI-related actions as aggressive or threatening. They could do this via data-sharing agreements, joint projects in nonmilitary AI, and exchanges between AI researchers. Reducing import restrictions for civilian AI use cases, for example, could help the nations rebuild some trust and make it possible for them to discuss deeper cooperation on joint research. These measures would help build transparency, reduce the risk of miscommunication, and pave the way for a less adversarial relationship.
    • 6. Support the development of a global AI safety coalition. A coalition that includes major AI developers from multiple countries could serve as a neutral platform for addressing ethical and safety concerns. This coalition would bring together leading AI researchers, ethicists, and policymakers to ensure that AI progresses in a way that is safe, fair, and beneficial to all. This effort should not exclude China, as it remains an essential partner in developing and maintaining a safe AI ecosystem.
    • 7. Shift the focus toward AI for global challenges. It is crucial that the world’s two AI superpowers use their capabilities to tackle global issues, such as climate change, disease, and poverty. By demonstrating the positive societal impacts of AI through tangible projects and presenting it not as a threat but as a powerful tool for good, the US and China can reshape public perception of AI. 

    Our choice is stark but simple: We can proceed down a path of confrontation that will almost certainly lead to mutual harm, or we can pivot toward collaboration, which offers the potential for a prosperous and stable future for all. Artificial intelligence holds the promise to solve some of the greatest challenges facing humanity, but realizing this potential depends on whether we choose to race against each other or work together. 

    The opportunity to harness AI for the common good is a chance the world cannot afford to miss.

    Alvin Wang Graylin

    Alvin Wang Graylin is a technology executive, author, investor, and pioneer with over 30 years of experience shaping innovation in AI, XR (extended reality), cybersecurity, and semiconductors. Currently serving as global vice president at HTC, Graylin was the company’s China president from 2016 to 2023. He is the author of Our Next Reality.

    Paul Triolo

    Paul Triolo is a partner for China and technology policy lead at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group. He advises clients in technology, financial services, and other sectors as they navigate complex political and regulatory matters in the US, China, the European Union, India, and around the world.

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    Key takeaways from Cisco Partner Summit

    Brian Ortbals, senior vice president from World Wide Technology, which is one of Cisco’s biggest and most important partners stated: “Cisco engaged partners early in the process and took our feedback along the way. We believe now is the right time for these changes as it will enable us to capitalize on the changes in the market.” The reality is, the more successful its more-than-half-a-million partners are, the more successful Cisco will be. Platform approach is coming together When Jeetu Patel took the reigns as chief product officer, one of his goals was to make the Cisco portfolio a “force multiple.” Patel has stated repeatedly that, historically, Cisco acted more as a technology holding company with good products in networking, security, collaboration, data center and other areas. In this case, product breadth was not an advantage, as everything must be sold as “best of breed,” which is a tough ask of the salesforce and partner community. Since then, there have been many examples of the coming together of the portfolio to create products that leverage the breadth of the platform. The latest is the Unified Edge appliance, an all-in-one solution that brings together compute, networking, storage and security. Cisco has been aggressive with AI products in the data center, and Cisco Unified Edge compliments that work with a device designed to bring AI to edge locations. This is ideally suited for retail, manufacturing, healthcare, factories and other industries where it’s more cost effecting and performative to run AI where the data lives.

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    AI networking demand fueled Cisco’s upbeat Q1 financials

    Customers are very focused on modernizing their network infrastructure in the enterprise in preparation for inferencing and AI workloads, Robbins said. “These things are always multi-year efforts,” and this is only the beginning, Robbins said. The AI opportunity “As we look at the AI opportunity, we see customer use cases growing across training, inferencing, and connectivity, with secure networking increasingly critical as workloads move from the data center to end users, devices, and agents at the edge,” Robbins said. “Agents are transforming network traffic from predictable bursts to persistent high-intensity loads, with agentic AI queries generating up to 25 times more network traffic than chatbots.” “Instead of pulling data to and from the data center, AI workloads require models and infrastructure to be closer to where data is created and decisions are made, particularly in industries such as retail, healthcare, and manufacturing.” Robbins pointed to last week’s introduction of Cisco Unified Edge, a converged platform that integrates networking, compute and storage to help enterprise customers more efficiently handle data from AI and other workloads at the edge. “Unified Edge enables real-time inferencing for agentic and physical AI workloads, so enterprises can confidently deploy and manage AI at scale,” Robbins said. On the hyperscaler front, “we see a lot of solid pipeline throughout the rest of the year. The use cases, we see it expanding,” Robbins said. “Obviously, we’ve been selling networking infrastructure under the training models. We’ve been selling scale-out. We launched the P200-based router that will begin to address some of the scale-across opportunities.” Cisco has also seen great success with its pluggable optics, Robbins said. “All of the hyperscalers now are officially customers of our pluggable optics, so we feel like that’s a great opportunity. They not only plug into our products, but they can be used with other companies’

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    When the Cloud Leaves Earth: Google and NVIDIA Test Space Data Centers for the Orbital AI Era

    On November 4, 2025, Google unveiled Project Suncatcher, a moonshot research initiative exploring the feasibility of AI data centers in space. The concept envisions constellations of solar-powered satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), each equipped with Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) and interconnected via free-space optical laser links. Google’s stated objective is to launch prototype satellites by early 2027 to test the idea and evaluate scaling paths if the technology proves viable. Rather than a commitment to move production AI workloads off-planet, Suncatcher represents a time-bound research program designed to validate whether solar-powered, laser-linked LEO constellations can augment terrestrial AI factories, particularly for power-intensive, latency-tolerant tasks. The 2025–2027 window effectively serves as a go/no-go phase to assess key technical hurdles including thermal management, radiation resilience, launch economics, and optical-link reliability. If these milestones are met, Suncatcher could signal the emergence of a new cloud tier: one that scales AI with solar energy rather than substations. Inside Google’s Suncatcher Vision Google has released a detailed technical paper titled “Towards a Future Space-Based, Highly Scalable AI Infrastructure Design.” The accompanying Google Research blog describes Project Suncatcher as “a moonshot exploring a new frontier” – an early-stage effort to test whether AI compute clusters in orbit can become a viable complement to terrestrial data centers. The paper outlines several foundational design concepts: Orbit and Power Project Suncatcher targets Low Earth Orbit (LEO), where solar irradiance is significantly higher and can remain continuous in specific orbital paths. Google emphasizes that space-based solar generation will serve as the primary power source for the TPU-equipped satellites. Compute and Interconnect Each satellite would host Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) accelerators, forming a constellation connected through free-space optical inter-satellite links (ISLs). Together, these would function as a disaggregated orbital AI cluster, capable of executing large-scale batch and training workloads. Downlink

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    Cloud-based GPU savings are real – for the nimble

    The pattern points to an evolving GPU ecosystem: while top-tier chips like Nvidia’s new GB200 Blackwell processors remain in extremely short supply, older models such as the A100 and H100 are becoming cheaper and more available. Yet, customer behavior may not match practical needs. “Many are buying the newest GPUs because of FOMO—the fear of missing out,” he added. “ChatGPT itself was built on older architecture, and no one complained about its performance.” Gil emphasized that managing cloud GPU resources now requires agility, both operationally and geographically. Spot capacity fluctuates hourly or even by the minute, and availability varies across data center regions. Enterprises willing to move workloads dynamically between regions—often with the help of AI-driven automation—can achieve cost reductions of up to 80%. “If you can move your workloads where the GPUs are cheap and available, you pay five times less than a company that can’t move,” he said. “Human operators can’t respond that fast automation is essential.” Conveniently, Cast sells an AI automation solution. But it is not the only one and the argument is valid. If spot pricing can be found cheaper at another location, you want to take it to keep the cloud bill down/ Gil concluded by urging engineers and CTOs to embrace flexibility and automation rather than lock themselves into fixed regions or infrastructure providers. “If you want to win this game, you have to let your systems self-adjust and find capacity where it exists. That’s how you make AI infrastructure sustainable.”

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    Harnessing Gravity: RRPT Hydro Reimagines Data Center Power

    At the 2025 Data Center Frontier Trends Summit, amid panels on AI, nuclear, and behind-the-meter power, few technologies stirred more curiosity than a modular hydropower system without dams or flowing rivers. That concept—piston-driven hydropower—was presented by Expanse Energy Corporation President and CEO Ed Nichols and Chief Electrical Engineer Gregory Tarver during the Trends Summit’s closing “6 Moonshots for the 2026 Data Center Frontier” panel. Nichols and Tarver joined the Data Center Frontier Show recently to discuss how their Reliable Renewable Power Technology (RRPT Hydro) platform could rewrite the economics of clean, resilient power for the AI era. A New Kind of Hydropower Patented in the U.S. and entering commercial readiness, RRPT Hydro’s system replaces flowing water with a gravity-and-buoyancy engine housed in vertical cylinders. Multiple pistons alternately sink and rise inside these cylinders—heavy on the downward stroke, buoyant on the upward—creating continuous motion that drives electrical generation. “It’s not perpetual motion,” Nichols emphasizes. “You need a starter source—diesel, grid, solar, anything—but once in motion, the system sustains itself, converting gravity’s constant pull and buoyancy’s natural lift into renewable energy.” The concept traces its roots to a moment of natural awe. Its inventor, a gas-processing engineer, was moved to action by the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, seeking a way to “containerize” and safely harvest the vast energy seen in that disaster. Two decades later, that spark has evolved into a patented, scalable system designed for industrial deployment. Physics-Based Power: Gravity Down, Buoyancy Up Each RRPT module operates as a closed-loop hydropower system: On the downstroke, pistons filled with water become dense and fall under gravity, generating kinetic energy. On the upstroke, air ballast tanks lighten the pistons, allowing buoyant forces to restore potential energy. By combining gravitational and buoyant forces—both constant, free, and renewable—RRPT converts natural equilibrium into sustained mechanical power.

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    Buyer’s guide to AI networking technology

    Extreme Networks: AI management over AI hardware Extreme deliberately prioritizes AI-powered network management over building specialized hyperscale AI infrastructure, a pragmatic positioning for a vendor targeting enterprise and mid-market.Named a Leader in IDC MarketScape: Worldwide Enterprise Wireless LAN 2025 (October 2025) for AI-powered automation, flexible deployment options and expertise in high-density environments. The company specializes in challenging wireless environments including stadiums, airports and historic venues (Fenway Park, Lambeau Field, Dubai World Trade Center, Liverpool FC’s Anfield Stadium). Key AI networking hardware 8730 Switch: 32×400GbE QSFP-DD fixed configuration delivering 12.8 Tbps throughput in 2RU for IP fabric spine/leaf designs. Designed for AI and HPC workloads with low latency, robust traffic management and power efficiency. Runs Extreme ONE OS (microservices architecture). Supports integrated application hosting with dedicated CPU for VM-based apps. Available Q3 2025. 7830 Switch: High-density 100G/400G fixed-modular core switch delivering 32×100Gb QSFP28 + 8×400Gb QSFP-DD ports with two VIM expansion slots. VIM modules enable up to 64×100Gb or 24×400Gb total capacity with 12.8 Tbps throughput in 2RU. Powered by Fabric Engine OS. Announced May 2025, available Q3 2025. Wi-Fi 7 access points: AP4020 (indoor) and AP4060 (outdoor with external antenna support, GA September 2025) completing premium Wi-Fi 7 portfolio. Extreme Platform ONE:Generally available Q3 2025 with 265+ customers. Integrates conversational, multimodal and agentic AI with three agents (AI Expert, AI Canvas, Service AI Agent) cutting resolution times 98%. Includes embedded Universal ZTNA and two-tier simplified licensing. ExtremeCloud IQ: Cloud-based network management integrating wireless, wired and SD-WAN with AI/ML capabilities and digital twin support for testing configurations before deployment. Extreme Fabric: Native SPB-based Layer 2 fabric with sub-second convergence, automated macro and micro-segmentation and free licensing (no controllers required). Multi-area fabric architecture solves traditional SPB scaling limitations. Analyst Rankings: Market leadership in AI networking Foundry Each of the vendors has its

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    Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

    And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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    John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

    Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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    2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

    Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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    OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

    Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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