
Oil fluctuated in choppy trading as tensions between Russia and NATO intensified, with European leaders warning the Kremlin that Western military alliance is ready to respond with force to violations of its airspace.
West Texas Intermediate swung between gains and losses to settle near $65, after earlier falling as much as 1.4%, as European diplomats concluded that a recent Russian incursion into Estonia was a deliberate tactic ordered by Russian commanders. Those comments echo earlier remarks by US President Donald Trump, who on Wednesday said that NATO should shoot down Russian aircrafts that cross into their airspace.
Russian flows have been in the spotlight over the past few weeks amid global efforts to pressure Moscow to make peace in Ukraine by targeting its energy assets. Crude received a bump earlier Thursday after Trump told Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan to “stop buying any oil from Russia,” just a day after urging Europe to stop purchasing energy from the OPEC+ member, leading oil investors to cover bearish positions.
Elsewhere, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered an urgent meeting of top military commanders for an unusual meeting early next week, fueling concerns over wider unrest that could imperil global crude flows.
Still, the confluence of bearish inputs didn’t succeed in breaking out of a narrow range since early August as traders balance a bearish outlook against escalating global tensions. Market watchers led by the International Energy Agency are forecasting excess supply later in the year due to increased output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, as well as from outside the group.
The commodity was down earlier as traders assessed future flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan to global supply chains. A landmark agreement to resume exports could return 500,000 barrels a day to the market, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said in an interview.
The prospect of rising flows from the Kurdistan region, following a two-year export halt, amplifies concerns that the oil market is headed for oversupply.
Oil Prices
- WTI for November delivery slipped 1 cent to settle at $64.98 a barrel in New York.
- Brent for November edged up 11 cents to settle at $69.42 a barrel.
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