In partnership withMicron The era of AI inference has arrived. Imagine a healthcare system analyzing millions of data points in real time to accelerate life-saving medical research, or an intelligent assistant instantly resolving thousands of complex customer needs at once. These real-world breakthroughs rely on advanced infrastructure acting as the engine of continuous intelligence, powering real-time services while also supporting an increasingly intelligent edge of IoT and consumer devices. However, in this inference-driven landscape, every delay, bottleneck, or wasted watt directly affects human outcomes and operating costs.  This shift changes what infrastructure must deliver. Performance, latency, memory bandwidth, storage throughput, and networking cannot be optimized in silos. Inference workloads are continuous, geographically distributed, and highly sensitive to response time, requiring systems designed for scale, resilience, and efficiency from the start. “We tend to think of AI as a single workload, and it’s not. It’s thousands, it’s millions, it’s billions of different workloads,” says Jim McGregor, founder and principal analyst, Tirias Research. AI inference changes the optimization problem from one of raw compute to coordinated infrastructure—memory, storage, and networking. For business leaders, the priority is clear: AI infrastructure decisions must balance cost, flexibility, and future readiness. The winners will be organizations that improve performance per watt, reduce environmental footprint, and remove memory and storage bottlenecks before they limit growth.
AI inference requires a new architectural approach Systems for AI need to be rearchitected because shoehorning modern AI systems into legacy infrastructure limits AI’s transformative potential. Purpose-built architectures are essential to realize the true value of AI, from accelerating scientific discovery to creating truly autonomous digital agents. Traditional enterprise IT has been able to rely on relatively stable infrastructure assumptions, but inference and agentic AI introduce new demands around latency, data movement, scalability, and utilization that make architecture choices far more consequential.
“Data centers must now support continuous, distributed, and increasingly real-time AI services—none of which are a single workload,” says McGregor. “They all require different requirements from a system-level perspective.” To support real-time AI, enterprises can no longer view memory and storage merely as supporting hardware, but at the heart of the system. Organizations need to architect a data pipeline that can rapidly ingest, clean, transform, store, move, and deliver data. Inference workloads place sustained pressure on infrastructure in ways that look very different from earlier training-centric deployments, demanding continuous data retrieval and caching that traditional applications never required. Accordingly, performance by itself is no longer the sole benchmark that matters. Enterprises increasingly must balance performance with efficiency, cost, and scalability, especially as they try to support different AI services without overbuilding infrastructure for peak conditions. “You have to optimize the entire network, and that includes memory and storage, around the types of workloads you plan on running,” says McGregor. “You have to really have a detailed understanding of what those workloads are going to be.” Any AI infrastructure strategy must start with workload awareness. Inference, agentic AI, and other emerging AI use cases require organizations to treat the data center as an integrated system. Data movement is the new bottleneck and an opportunity for competitive advantage As enterprises deploy advanced inference and agentic systems, the sheer volume of data being queried in real time has made data movement the most pressing constraint. Modern AI techniques like retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) require systems to constantly scan massive databases to generate accurate responses. This requires immense computing power, but more importantly, it requires immediate access to data. McGregor says the focus shift to how efficiently data can be moved, cached, and delivered across the broader architecture elevates memory and storage from background infrastructure to strategic assets. “The biggest thing we’re doing right now is moving data from one place to another and making sure that we can use it effectively.” Because AI is not a single workload category, simply buying the fastest processors is insufficient. Inference depends heavily on memory bandwidth, caching, storage proximity, and the ability to retrieve relevant information quickly and consistently. Understanding where each resource belongs in the stack and how those layers interact under real operating conditions has become a business imperative.

The most effective AI infrastructure looks less like a collection of best-in-class parts and more like a balanced system of compute, memory, storage, and networking, McGregor says, because bottlenecks tend to migrate from one layer to the next. “You have to architect all four together to be efficient, and that’s the challenge.” The interdependence of data-plane design and network bandwidth means AI infrastructure planning has become a business decision just as much as an engineering one: latency is now inseparable from value. In robotics, financial services, healthcare, and customer-facing AI systems, delays are not merely technical imperfections; they can undermine safety, responsiveness, or trust. AI infrastructure performance becomes a matter of reputation management. The organizations that gain the most from AI may not be those with the largest clusters, but those with the clearest understanding of how to align every infrastructure element to effectively execute AI workloads. Building an AI infrastructure procurement framework Planning AI infrastructure is not simply about choosing the fastest hardware. It is about how to scale without locking the organization into assumptions that may quickly become obsolete. “You need to be flexible because the demands are going to change rapidly and the technology is changing rapidly,” McGregor says. Future-proofing AI infrastructure requires keeping your options open as workloads, economics, and architectures keep shifting: Define the AI workloads that are being optimized. Infrastructure choices must match business needs rather than what McGregor calls generic “AI readiness,” which risks overspending in some areas while leaving bottlenecks unresolved in others. Build a modular architecture for compute, memory, storage, power, and cooling so capacity can change as demand shifts rather than committing too early to a rigid architecture. Work with the full ecosystem of suppliers and integrators to reduce supply risk and improve access to the right components. McGregor says buyers can no longer assume their OEM or cloud provider alone will insulate them from supply constraints or architectural complexity. Reassess your procurement strategy continuously. AI requirements, hardware, and business models are changing too quickly for a fixed long-term design. Optimize for efficiency and ROI, not just peak performance. The most powerful setup may be too costly to sustain. Efficiency is also a public-facing metric—better utilization and more workload-aware system design can help companies respond to growing scrutiny around power consumption and water use. The strategic goal of smarter AI data center design is not maximum performance at any cost, but an adaptable architecture that can deliver value, absorb change, and justify its footprint. AI infrastructure is now a business strategy AI data centers have quickly evolved from a back-end technical concern to becoming strategic business systems that help determine how effectively an organization can turn AI into revenue, improve human outcomes, and create a competitive advantage. In the inference era, memory and storage are no longer passive repositories, explains McGregor, they are the active lifeblood of AI. The organizations that gain the most from AI will not necessarily be those with the largest computing footprint, but those that align infrastructure investments to business outcomes, reduce data bottlenecks, and build the flexibility to adapt as workloads evolve. He predicts that competitive advantage will increasingly belong to enterprises that treat compute, memory, storage, and networking as an integrated system designed to deliver AI efficiently, at scale, and with measurable ROI. Procurement is now strategy and system design is a leadership issue, McGregor concludes. “One of the biggest questions every executive has to ask is how is AI going to change my business model?” This content was produced by Insights, MIT Technology Review’s custom content arm, not its editorial staff. It was researched and written by humans, with any AI tools that may have been used limited to production processes under human oversight.

This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. Data from drones in Ukraine is fueling a new Wild West marketplace —Cory Alpert, a researcher at the University of Melbourne studying AI’s impact on democracy, who previously served in the Biden White House. Battlefields in Ukraine are littered with the remnants of drones. But behind all that wreckage, there’s a new gold mine for the defense sector: the data those drones generate. Ukraine has begun making millions of data points gathered during tens of thousands of drone flights available to military contractors and commercial companies. It’s a quick way to attract funding and partnerships, but it turns the front line into a model training site, using the chaos of war to create conditions that AI companies struggle to reproduce.
As this new industry takes shape, we need a regulatory system that ensures battlefield data isn’t treated like ordinary commercial material. Read the full op-ed on why battlefield data needs new rules.
Mother tongue —“Mother Tongue” is a short fiction story by author and AI ethicist Jenny Williams “Daddy?” Theo curled against my side in bed. “Where do words go when they die? “Well, kiddo,” I said, scratching my beard. “Words aren’t really alive to begin with. Not like you and I are alive.”Inside, Theo’s AI companion teaches him strange songs in a language his father doesn’t understand. But outside, the world is edging toward disaster. A mysterious agentic system called Tingsu has emerged in a nuclear-armed country, and no one seems to understand what it wants. Read the full short story about what happens when AI begins to reshape language. This story is from our latest print magazine, which is all about kids. Subscribe now to get every issue as soon as it lands. The must-reads I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 OpenAI has launched Astra, its most capable model yetThe firm says boosted capabilities are being paired with stronger safeguards. (Verge)+ OpenAI’s president claims that AI is now as capable as humans. (WP $)+ But the company is also warning that Astra can evade human monitoring. (Reuters $)+ It’s OpenAI’s first model to hit its “critical” risk level. (Quartz)+ Bill Gates says we’ve lost control of AI. (MIT Technology Review)

2 Automakers have urged Congress to ban Chinese cars permanentlyOn the basis of unfair trade, market dumping, and surveillance. (The Hill)+ The group wants legislation barring them from the US this year. (Reuters $)+ It includes GM, Ford, Toyota, VW, Hyundai, Honda, and Stellantis. (CNBC)+ China’s EV boom has a recycling problem. (MIT Technology Review) 3 Tesla has launched the Cybercab, starting with rides in AustinThe company has 45 of the robotaxis registered in Texas. (AP)+ It was an unusually muted launch. (Verge)+ Regulators are already evaluating the steering-wheel-free service. (Reuters $) 4 Republicans are increasingly breaking from Trump’s pro-AI agendaThe most striking shift is a data center backlash in Texas. (Reuters $)+ Should we move data centers to space? (MIT Technology Review) 5 Bernie Sanders wants a permanent ban on “superintelligent” AIHe also renewed his call to pause advanced AI development. (Politico)+ Rep. Greg Casar is cosponsoring the bill. (Axios) 6 The Pentagon and Commerce Department are split over AnthropicAn official said Anthropic is still considered a “supply chain risk.” (Axios)+ A day earlier, the commerce chief said the firm was back onside. (Quartz) 7 A transplanted pig kidney worked in a human for a record 271 daysIt enabled the recipient to stay off dialysis while waiting for a donor.(BBC)+ Supercooling is keeping pig kidneys alive longer. (MIT Technology Review) 8 A fly-inspired algorithm that remembers smells could lead to better AIIt mimics how fruit flies remember new smells.(Ars Technica) 9 Did “technofascist” laws bring Peter Thiel to Argentina?Critics say the proposals echo his techno-libertarian ideas. (Guardian)
10 Splash-free urinals and nose-blowing research have won Ig NobelsThe awards honor unusual research with genuine scientific value. (CNN) Quote of the day
“Despite its potential deadly consequences, cutting-edge AI technology is less regulated than the average food truck. That must change.” —Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) calls for a ban on “superintelligent” AI in a press release issued alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont). One more thing Is fake grass a bad idea? The AstroTurf wars are far from over. In 2001, Americans installed just over 7 million square meters of synthetic turf. By 2024, that number was 79 million square meters—enough to carpet all of Manhattan and then some. The increase worries folks who study microplastics and environmental pollution.   While the plastic-making industry insists that synthetic fields are safe if properly installed, lots of researchers think that isn’t so. Find out why AstroTurf has ignited heated debates. —Douglas Main We can still have nice things
A place for comfort, fun, and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line.) + “Weird Al” Yankovic has performed a delightfully offbeat Tiny Desk concert.+ Step inside the sound world of The Price Is Right with broadcast mixer Henry Muehlhausen.+ Ease your fears of AI uprisings with these fails from the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games.+ A floating island that nature lovers feared had sunk has reemerged about 20 miles from where it was last spotted.

Battlefields in Ukraine are littered with the remnants of drones, which are now firmly established as a critical weapon of modern warfare. But behind all that wreckage, there’s a new gold mine for the defense sector. The data drones generate will far outlast the wars in which they are used to fight, increasingly becoming part of the AI architecture that shapes even civilian life.   For every flight, unmanned systems collect thousands of points of data, from images and video to controller inputs. Together, those records show how a machine and a person responded to constantly shifting circumstances.  Ukraine has now begun converting that experience into a resource. Its Ministry of Defense announced in January that it would make millions of data points gathered during tens of thousands of drone flights available to both military contractors and commercial companies, and since then more than 100 companies and the UK government have gained access. For a country at war, it’s a quick way to attract funding and partnerships. But this step turns the front line into an active site of model training, taking advantage of how the chaos of war creates conditions that AI companies struggle to reproduce on their own.
Other countries and battlefields are likely to follow Ukraine’s lead, but the responsibility for governing this new industry cannot fall solely on a country fighting for its survival. That legal vacuum has to be filled together by the countries and companies involved in this industry’s development.  
Explosive growth Ukraine’s battlefields are not the first to produce records used to train and develop models: American drones over Syria and Yemen collected data that informed the first generation of semiautonomous military hardware in the late 2010s. The difference now is that access to that data is being used to develop a wider ecosystem. And the financial value to defense firms is immense: Battlefield data offers large volumes of machine experience gathered under conditions that no laboratory can produce. That’s because the data that’s most valuable for training AI models comes from exceptions: the moment visibility disappears, a signal jams, or a human operator improvises. AI companies spend years and enormous sums trying to capture enough of these moments to make their models more robust. But war produces them at a frequency controlled testing cannot match. This constantly changing terrain is what makes drone data valuable far beyond the battlefield. A commercial drone used for delivery or remote sensing may never encounter artillery fire, but it must still operate with incomplete information in a world where people behave unpredictably. The same problem is compressed by war into a much shorter timeline.  Processed and matched against records of what its operator was doing, that data turns operational records into training sets. Combat becomes a commercial asset. Many conflicts have already seen this training loop happen as drone footage feeds subsequent generations of military technology, and the market is set to grow. Enabled Intelligence, an American company that specializes in processing data to become usable in AI training, says it has already made more than half a million hours of Ukrainian drone footage available to feed into the next round of models, advertising possible uses in both military and commercial systems. Closing the data loop Many of the drones that now define our modern age of warfare began as civilian technology. But they’ve recently been turbocharged by new, commercially available AI systems, which allow cheap machines to operate autonomously—either individually or as a flock—as the environment changes around them. Each flight then creates a record of what the system encountered.

The resulting data is critical. The controlled lab environments usually developed to train these autonomous systems can approximate failure but are no match for  the live conditions of a battlefield with very real risks. Military intelligence programs have held data generated by sensor-heavy systems like Predator and Reaper drones for nearly a decade through programs like Project Maven, but access remained entirely within the defense world. The data generated was available only through restricted, classified channels for the sole purpose of developing new weapons systems that would feed back into the same military that produced the data in the first place. That experience is now being shared to a much broader development network.  The loop now closes. Commercial technologies adapted for the battlefield are generating data that can flow back into the industries from which they came, becoming part of the data infrastructure relied on by governments and the private sector alike.  Drones that were trained in the signal-jammed airspace over Ukraine are now being deployed in the agricultural sector to help farmers map and survey their fields in places lacking the cell signal necessary for previous generations of technology.  Other countries are likely to follow Ukraine in selling their battlefield data, and we are not ready for the new marketplace this will create. Bad actors could acquire the data, but purchase controls already mitigate that risk. Intelligence operatives scrutinize potential customers’ infrastructure for ways that data could reach enemies or nefarious actors.  Training data creates a new tracing problem, though. Whereas the movement of commercial datasets can be followed when planted contact details appear two steps from the original buyer, the provenance of AI training data vanishes in a manner embedded in the technology itself. Another risk is that this use of the data creates an extractive economy in which wealthier countries far from danger benefit from the mortal threat borne by frontline states, potentially creating a market incentive for war to continue as an unending mine for digital gold.  A fraught new frontier Existing laws regulate how militaries may conduct war. But they say almost nothing about what happens when records created in combat are stripped of their operational context, packaged as data, and licensed to companies whose products circulate far beyond where they were made.
The responsibilities of the companies that design these systems remain unsettled. Ukraine is building access controls, which are mentioned in the newly signed UK-Ukraine AI agreement, but no governments are actively working on regulating what happens when data has been absorbed into a model and crosses back into civilian markets. Those records contain human lives. The soldiers and civilians visible in them did not agree to become training material for products that might be sold years later. But sensor data, camera footage, and coordinates from civilians fleeing a drone strike now constitute the sorts of data that inform how future machines will make decisions.
That is a problem of consent. Individuals featured in the data—be they targets, controllers, or civilians standing by—become part of the training material. The autonomous capabilities based on that data do not stop at the edge of the battlefield. Such capabilities move into other military or commercial systems like delivery vehicles or agricultural machinery. Errors and assumptions embedded in the data travel with the model even once it enters civilian life. Battlefield data should not be treated as ordinary commercial material. But there is currently no agency or regulator that has jurisdiction over this issue. In the meantime, governments that provide access to defense data should treat it as they would a controlled weapons transfer, recording its origin, licensing its users, and restricting onward sharing. Ukraine has begun to grapple with this. Its Avengers Labs program allows companies to train models on battlefield data without giving them direct access to sensitive databases. Yet that mitigates only one part of the problem.  Governments should require disclosure when models trained on wartime material are later incorporated into civilian products. The goal of such regulation should be to make the path from combat to commerce visible.  What these companies are really mining is experience. And soldiers cannot consent to having their experience used in this way—as training data that produces model advantage and ultimately supports a product used far from where the war was fought. The question is no longer only what the technology companies can sell for use in war. It is what they can extract from it. To protect ourselves from the excesses of this new industry, we need a regulatory system that follows battlefield data wherever it goes, from combat to model to commercial product.  Cory Alpert is a researcher at the University of Melbourne, looking at the impact of AI on democracy. He previously served in the Biden White House.

Real-world data at continuous global scaleWeatherNext 3’s biggest leap forward is what it learns from. Most AI weather models, including WeatherNext 2, are trained on data from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Although useful, NWP models are complex, supercomputer-driven physics simulations that carry a six-hour data lag. This lag can lead to biases for fast-changing variables like rain or surface temperature.By ingesting a mosaic of live, global geostationary satellite data, our new model gains a rich, continuously updating view of the atmosphere. This allows the model to generate a new forecast every hour, each one grounded in the most recent satellite observations available, at up to 5-kilometer resolution.This is important because critical weather develops fast. When storms, fronts, or precipitation systems materialize suddenly, our rapid update cycle and higher resolution provides earlier, more detailed insights needed to help drive an effective response.Some variables, like temperature and humidity, can fluctuate dramatically over just a few kilometers, which is particularly relevant for communities near coastlines, valleys, or mountain ranges. Traditional models struggle here because they train on representations of the atmosphere that lack detail and miss extreme local variations.To address this, WeatherNext 3 instead trains directly on sparse weather station observation data. This allows us to make global forecasts on a 5-kilometer grid that account for regional details like topography.This breakthrough is particularly vital for regions across Latin America, Africa, and Asia-Pacific that have historically been underserved by high-resolution forecasting due to the immense supercomputing costs of traditional regional models. It brings localized, high-fidelity forecasting to billions of people and local businesses in these areas.Beyond improved resolution and forecast frequency, our model introduces predictions specifically engineered for renewable energy production. The model forecasts 100-meter wind speeds (roughly at turbine-height) for precise wind-energy output, alongside high-resolution cloud cover and sun radiation levels to help solar farms estimate how much light they will receive on the ground.This data is crucial for global clean energy planning, allowing grid operators and renewables developers to accurately predict how much power their clean energy assets will generate and match it with consumer demand.Precipitation forecasting at breakthrough accuracyGlobal weather models notoriously struggle to accurately predict precipitation. Rain and snow systems are driven by fast-moving cloud processes on tiny scales that are hard to model accurately using traditional physics-based simulations. Consequently, AI forecasts often produce blurry estimates or miss the boundaries of severe storms entirely.To solve this, we train our model on two exceptionally high-quality sources of precipitation data: NASA’s satellite-based Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and our own global precipitation reanalysis based on satellite radar.The result is a significant leap in precipitation forecasting accuracy. In medium-range global forecasts, evaluations against baselines show a Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) improvement of up to 60% against IMERG, 30% for MRMS, and 10% against rain gauge measurements for early lead times.

This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. Child-monitoring apps might need a reboot Digital harms have become the defining fear of American parents. In response, they’re increasingly turning to content-monitoring apps that scan their children’s texts, photos, emails, and chats, issuing alerts whenever an algorithm flags something it deems dangerous. These tools have had genuine successes, preventing suicide attempts, intercepting predators, and averting school shootings. But they can also cause harm themselves, from false alarms and unnecessary interventions to damaged trust and anxiety. Child-safety researchers say better approaches exist. Here’s what they think those could look like.
—Kelly Clancy This article is from our latest print magazine, which is all about kids. Subscribe now to get every issue as soon as it lands.
Agriculture relies on fossil fuels. It’s costing us. Fertilizer prices have been on a roller coaster this year, driven in part by trade disruptions and high natural-gas prices. That’s because natural gas is both an energy source and a chemical input in the production of ammonia, a key fertilizer ingredient. The war in Iran has pushed natural-gas prices higher and disrupted fertilizer trade through the Strait of Hormuz—and its closure could make access harder still for some of the world’s poorest countries. Let’s take a closer look at the surging fertilizer prices, and how a few climate-friendly alternatives could bring farmers some relief. —Casey Crownhart This story is from The Spark, our weekly climate tech newsletter. Sign up to receive it in your inbox every Wednesday. The must-reads I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 New York City has banned AI in elementary and middle schoolsThe one-year moratorium will affect 600,000 students. (Politico)+  It applies to any software using student-facing generative AI. (AP)+ Here’s how kids feel about AI, in their own words. (MIT Technology Review 

2 Taiwan has uncovered a hidden Chinese network targeting its chip sectorIt’s linked 166 cases to illegal operations and talent poaching. (Rest of World)+ Taiwan’s president says its chip prowess is built on democracy. (Reuters $)+ But its “silicon shield” could be weakening. (MIT Technology Review) 3 Uber has launched the UK’s first commercial robotaxi serviceIt’s using tech from UK startup Wayve and, initially, safety drivers. (Verge)+ But in the US, Uber has allied with driver unions to slow robotaxis. (FT $)+ And, back in the UK, Uber’s being sued over algorithmic pay. (Guardian) 4 Google has avoided a breakup of its ad tech businessA US judge rejected the government’s demand to force a sale. (Guardian)+ But it must change how it treats rivals and shares information. (NYT $)+ The decision is a big deal for antitrust investigations. (WSJ $) 5 Serbians have been targeted with mercenary spyware after electionsTargets included student activists, lawmakers and a local councilor. (Reuters $) 6 The Trump administration has backed OpenAI in its NYT lawsuitThe Justice Department says AI training can be fair use. (Quartz)+ It added that national security depended on US tech dominance. (NYT $)+ The US is also urging G20 countries to allow AI training on creators’ work. (Reuters $)+ Does AI know too much? (MIT Technology Review) 7 Public housing tenants are suing over sensors monitoring their homesThe devices collect minute-by-minute data on noise and motion. (NYT $) 8 Anthropic seems to have won back the Trump administration’s trustThe commerce secretary said the firm is “back on the right side.” (Axios) 9 Humble exoskeletons are proving more useful than combat supersuitsSmaller devices are assisting workers, patients, and athletes. (Economist $)
10 AI food slop has made its way onto real restaurant menusIt’s providing cheap images, which frequently look revolting. (NBC News) Quote of the day
“I think this will be the end of an era of the US trying to break up platforms this complex. The courts remain hesitant to dismantle these really complex tech systems, even when finding conduct that is anticompetitive.” —Nikhil Lai, a principal analyst at Forrester, tells the New York Times that Google’s legal win against antitrust enforcers trying to break up its ad business is a seminal victory.   One more thing COURTESY OF COLOSSAL BIOSCIENCES Colossal Biosciences said it cloned red wolves. Is it for real? Last year, Colossal Biosciences announced that it had cloned four red wolves, surprising scientists working to save the species and even people whose canids supplied the DNA. They also disagreed about the company’s big idea: de-extinction. Colossal kept the location of the mystery clones secret, and even their purpose was murky to some scientists. Just how they might restore red wolf populations was unclear. Perhaps the most curious question, though, was whether the company had cloned red wolves at all. Can cloning really help save the red wolf? And what should we really be trying to preserve? Read the full story to find out. —Boyce Upholt
We can still have nice things A place for comfort, fun, and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line.) + Zelda gets a very British makeover in this charming Wallace and Gromit parody.+ The “ugliest shark on the planet” has been spotted alive in its natural habitat for the first time.+ The Euclid space telescope has captured the most detailed image yet of the Milky Way’s heart.+ Take a tour through the history of web browsers on game consoles in this illuminating dive into a corner of juvenile web.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY If you’ve had to fill up your vehicle’s gas tank or buy a plane ticket lately, you’ve probably felt the effects of rising fossil-fuel prices. But farmers buying fertilizer for their crops are especially aware of just how far the ripple effects of the conflict in Iran have spread. Fertilizer prices have been on a roller coaster this year, kicked off in part by trade disruptions and high prices for natural gas, a key ingredient in fertilizer production. Let’s take a closer look at why conventional fertilizer prices are so sky-high, and how a few more climate-friendly alternatives could bring farmers some relief. As fossil-fuel prices go up, nearly all industries are affected, since most of our economy relies on these fuels to move goods and people around. But fertilizer is even more intertwined with these fluctuations, because natural gas is used as both an energy source and a chemical input in the production of ammonia, a key fertilizer ingredient. So as natural-gas prices have spiked in recent months because of the war in Iran, fertilizer prices have followed. (It’s worth briefly noting here that fertilizer production is also a major source of greenhouse-gas emissions, accounting for about 2% of the global total.)
Fertilizer trade is being directly affected as well, since about one-third of global seaborne trade in fertilizers passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed to commercial traffic because of the conflict. Access to fertilizer could get worse for some of the poorest countries around the world because of the strait’s closure, according to a report from the World Bank. While the US largely meets demand for nitrogen fertilizers with domestic production, some imports do come from the Persian Gulf. At one point in April, the price of urea (the most commonly applied fertilizer) climbed above $850 per metric ton. That’s 80% higher than it was before the conflict and the highest level since 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting conflict caused fertilizer costs to hit record highs. Prices have come down significantly, but forecasts remain uncertain.
“There’s just this out-of-control supply chain that’s a lot more volatile than it’s ever been,” says Travis Frey, chief technology officer of Pivot Bio, a company making fertilizer with genetically edited microbes. (For more on these microbes, how they work, and what research is still needed, check out my latest story here.)  Pivot says its products are cost-competitive with chemical fertilizers today. And because they don’t use natural gas as an input, they aren’t subject to the same price spikes. When the war in Iran started, Pivot increased the volume it planned to produce, dropped prices, and allowed farmers to lock in prices for three years, Frey says. That could be a major help for those farmers, because high prices could be here to stay for a while. Some fertilizer prices could remain high through at least 2028, according to a report from CoBank, one of the largest banks for the agriculture industry in the US. That’s partly because the war has caused long-lasting damage: 31 ammonia plants in the Middle East have been affected or shut down completely. That’s on top of 20 ammonia plants that have been damaged in Russia in recent years. Ongoing high prices can be extremely challenging for farmers. “The fertilizer price spikes, and because farmers have paper-thin margins, this is a real problem,” says Tim Schnabel, founder and CEO of Switch Bioworks, another company working on advanced microbe fertilizers. Higher costs can help push food prices higher, causing all of us to pay more at the grocery store. (It’s not just fertilizer, by the way. Farmers are also getting hit with wild diesel prices this year.) As long as we’re relying on fertilizers made with fossil fuels, food prices will be tied up with energy prices. Switch and Pivot are among the companies looking to make alternative fertilizers that use microbes to provide nitrogen to plants. There’s a limit to how much synthetic fertilizers these products can actually replace: Depending on the crop and conditions, Pivot says, its products can replace about 25% of synthetic fertilizer today, and the company hopes to reach 40% to 50% of the total. But these alternatives could be a start to untangling fossil fuels and food. “We can’t keep doing it like this,” Switch’s Schnabel says. “There’s no way we can build a society where the basis of the food chain depends on fossil fuels.” This article is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review’s weekly climate newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here.