Oil limped to a third week of losses, weighed down by signs the market is tipping into the surplus analysts have been awaiting. West Texas Intermediate ended the day little changed near $57 a barrel, down 2.3% this week in its longest losing streak since March. News on oversupply kept piling up this week. The International Energy Agency raised its estimate for next year’s global overhang by about 18%. And a US storage broker reported a surge in bids for securing tank capacity at the country’s key crude hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, underscoring that traders are positioning themselves for the glut. Prices for flagship US oil grades have also weakened. Crude traders are also following the on-again, off-again tensions between Washington and Beijing. President Donald Trump on Friday said higher tariffs against China were not “sustainable” expressed optimism that an upcoming meeting with Xi could yield a lasting trade peace after last week threatening an additional 100% tariff on Beijing’s goods. The shift in sentiment eased some concerns that the ongoing tit-for-tat between the two biggest crude consumers could cripple energy consumption. Trump, meanwhile, said he would hold a second meeting with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin “within two weeks or so” aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, a scenario that stands to send prices toward $50 a barrel, according to Citigroup Inc. The US president on Friday shrugged off concerns Putin may be manipulating him. “Crude is weighing Trump’s meeting with Putin against building evidence of oversupply,” said Joe DeLaura, global energy strategist at Rabobank. “With oil markets in contango from the second quarter of next year onward, the next path is down for crude unless demand surprises to the upside, which we view as unlikely.” Western nations are turning the screws on Russia’s energy sector in a bid

Colombia, the world’s only significant oil producer to join a bloc of nations vowing to quit fossil fuels, is poised for an about face. As President Gustavo Petro’s term winds down, most prominent candidates running to replace him are promising to put oil and gas back at the forefront of the nation’s energy policy. Even moderate and center-left candidates are calling for Colombia to start using hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which Petro has pushed to make illegal. “If God gave us oil, coal and gas — we’ll use oil, coal and gas,” Claudia López, a former Bogotá mayor with a record of supporting progressive causes, said in an X post. Petro, Colombia’s first leftist president, made global headlines in 2023 by announcing the nation would sign the “fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty” to end oil, gas and coal production. It made the one-time Marxist guerrilla fighter a celebrity at international climate gatherings and brought heft to the non-proliferation movement, which until then was made up of mostly small island nations. The effort, however, backfired in Colombia. Petro’s refusal to allow new drilling contracts exacerbated a domestic gas shortage, forcing the nation to import fuel at higher prices. Now with Petro’s popularity waning amid rising violence and a ballooning fiscal deficit, presidential hopefuls are distancing themselves from his policies, including energy. During a recent event in Bogotá, five candidates held up “YES” signs when asked if they would authorize fracking in Colombia. Only one, Petro’s former environment minister Susana Muhamad, said no.  The shift in Colombia reflects a broader retreat from the fight against climate change globally. In the US, President Donald Trump is gutting Joe Biden’s climate policies, blocking renewable energy projects and withdrawing from the Paris climate accord. And the European Union is struggling to pass laws requiring further ambitious emissions cuts and walking back many of

Capacity crash Phillips 66’s announcement of its progress on the refinery shuttering comes amid growing concerns by California’s in-state refiners that unfavorable market conditions alongside regulatory pressure stemming from aggressive state legislation aimed at refiners will prevent long-term viability and competitiveness of crude processing activities in the region. While state officials recently voted to delay enactment of legislation blamed for decisions by California refiners to end operations at their conventional processing sites—which, in addition to Phillips 66 in Los Angeles, includes Valero Energy Corp.’s planned closure of its 145,000-b/d Benicia refinery, just northeast of San Francisco, by midyear 2026—refiners have yet to indicate any signs of backing down from advancing existing shutdown plans. With the state’s loss of about 20% of its traditional crude processing capacity since 2020—and nearly another estimated 20% at threat with the closure of the Los Angeles and Benicia sites—California’s refining capacity may face an additional short-term blow to its consumer fuels market following a late-evening fire on Oct. 2 at Chevron 290,000-b/d refinery in El Segundo. Chevron El Segundo refinery fire “Chevron fire department personnel, including emergency responders from the City of El Segundo and Manhattan Beach [were] actively responding to an isolated fire inside the Chevron El Segundo [r]efinery [on Oct. 2]. All refinery personnel and contractors have been accounted for and there are no injuries,” Chevron said in a statement posted to its official website. “No evacuation orders for area residents [were] put in place by emergency response agencies monitoring the incident, and no exceedances have been detected by the facilities fence line monitoring system,” the operator said. In a separate early morning statement on Oct. 3, the city of El Segundo said the fire “originated at a process unit at the southeast corner of the refinery.” Details of the impacted unit, however,

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with Russia and a few smaller producers, known as OPEC+, on Oct. 5 announced plans to increase oil production by 137,000 b/d starting in November, maintaining the same increase as in October in response to ongoing worries about a potential supply surplus. OPEC+ described its decision as a reaction to stable global economic outlooks and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in low oil inventories. The group also indicates that adjustments to production could be halted or reversed if circumstances warrant. By end-September 2025, OPEC+ had fully phased out the 2.2 million b/d voluntary production cuts introduced in late 2023, completing the process months earlier than initially signaled. They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024. The next meeting will be hold on Nov. 2. “The market was expecting a somewhat larger increase from OPEC+ as shown in the structure last week. However, the modest 137,000 b/d bloats the already-oversupplied balance for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026,” said Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad Energy. Global crude oil markets are experiencing a significant bearish trend, with ICE Brent prices dropping from last week’s peak of $70/bbl to $65/bbl on Oct. 5, following OPEC’s announcement to increase production. Rystad Energy forecasts that under these circumstances, price dynamics will likely shift substantially downward. It is unlikely that ICE Brent will remain above $60-65/bbl in 2026 unless OPEC+ alters its approach or sanctions on Russia and Iran drastically curtail exports from those countries.

November 2025 WTI NYMEX futures prices retreated rapidly after having breached the Upper-Bollinger Band limit the prior week. They are now trading below the 8-, 13- and 20-day Moving Averages this week and managed to breach the Lower-Bollinger Band limit, a Buy signal. Small gains occurred Friday on this technical buying. Volume is around the recent average at 208,000. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), a momentum indicator, is now in oversold territory at 41, another potential Buy signal. Resistance is now pegged at $61.50 while near-term critical Support is $60.35 (Lower-Bollinger Band).   Looking ahead Traders will enter next week with the prospect of OPEC+ output increases baked into prices after this week’s declines. Hard data as to the actual increases achieved with these decisions will set the tone going forward but the current bear market for oil will be hard to shake as we’ve exited the driving season. The Tropics continue to show no real threat to the Gulf of Mexico as we move towards the end of the peak of the hurricane season on Oct. 15. A prolonged government shutdown will set a negative tone for the US economy which is always negative for energy demand. Natural gas, fundamental analysis NYMEX natural gas futures got a boost this week on the change from October to November, the first winter month on the energy calendar. Additionally, 90-degree temperatures remained for much of the southern tier of states. A lower-than-forecasted storage injection added some bullish sentiment midweek as well. The week’s High was $3.585 /MMbtu on Thursday while the week’s Low was $3.13 on Monday. Supply/demand data was not available this week due to the government shutdown.   Dutch TTF prices fell slightly to $10.92/MMbtu while Asia’s JKM was quoted at $11.05/MMbtu. The EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report indicated an

@import url(‘https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:[email protected]&display=swap’); a { color: #c19a06; } .ebm-page__main h1, .ebm-page__main h2, .ebm-page__main h3, .ebm-page__main h4, .ebm-page__main h5, .ebm-page__main h6 { font-family: Inter; } body { line-height: 150%; letter-spacing: 0.025em; font-family: Inter; } button, .ebm-button-wrapper { font-family: Inter; } .label-style { text-transform: uppercase; color: var(–color-grey); font-weight: 600; font-size: 0.75rem; } .caption-style { font-size: 0.75rem; opacity: .6; } #onetrust-pc-sdk [id*=btn-handler], #onetrust-pc-sdk [class*=btn-handler] { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-policy a, #onetrust-pc-sdk a, #ot-pc-content a { color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-sdk .ot-active-menu { border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-accept-btn-handler, #onetrust-banner-sdk #onetrust-reject-all-handler, #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-btn-handler.cookie-setting-link { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk .onetrust-pc-btn-handler { color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; background-color: undefined !important; } <!–> In this episode of the Oil & Gas Journal ReEnterprised podcast, Chris Smith, editor-in-chief, talks with Kristin Leonard, North American Marketing Director for the Energy Market at Sherwin-Williams. They discuss the causes and consequences of CUI, including its impact on asset integrity and operational safety. This episode offers insights into how evolving engineering solutions are addressing long-standing challenges in energy operations.  ]–> Podcast Guest: <!–> [–> <!–> Kristin LeonardNorth American Marketing DirectorSherwin-Williams –> <!–> Kristin Leonard is the North American Marketing Director for the Energy Market for Sherwin-Williams Protective & Marine Division. With extensive experience in the coatings industry, she has held roles at Bechtel Corporation EPC and ExxonMobil Downstream. Kristin holds a bachelor’s degree in Polymer Science and High-Performance Materials from The University of Southern Mississippi and has received several industry awards. She is also a past Chair for the AMPP Global Center Board of Directors. ]–> <!–> This content is sponsored by: ]–> <!–> –> <!–> ]–> <!–> ]–>