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EIA Raises Oil Price Forecasts but Still Sees Drop in 2026

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on November 12, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its Brent price forecast for 2025 and 2026 but still projected that the commodity will drop next year compared to 2025. According to its November STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price […]

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on November 12, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its Brent price forecast for 2025 and 2026 but still projected that the commodity will drop next year compared to 2025.

According to its November STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $68.76 per barrel this year and $54.92 per barrel next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in October, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $68.64 per barrel in 2025 and $52.16 per barrel in 2026.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that the Brent spot price will come in at $62.52 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $54.30 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $54.02 per barrel in the second quarter, $55.32 per barrel in the third quarter, and $56.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.

In its previous STEO, the EIA forecast that the Brent spot price would average $62.05 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, $51.97 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $51.67 per barrel in the second quarter, $52.00 per barrel in the third quarter, and $53.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

The EIA highlighted in its latest STEO that Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $65 per barrel in October, which it pointed out was $3 per barrel less than the average in September and $15 per barrel less than the average in January 2025.

“Crude oil prices fell in October as growing supplies of crude oil outweighed uncertainties related to the effect of new rounds of sanctions on Russia’s oil sector,” the EIA said in its November STEO.

“We forecast that growing global oil production and the transition to the low point of seasonal demand over the winter will accelerate the growth in global oil inventories, causing crude oil prices to continue to fall in the coming months,” the EIA warned.

“We forecast that the Brent price will drop to an average of $54 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) and will average $55 per barrel in 2026. Although we expect prices to fall through the early part of 2026, our 2026 Brent outlook is $3 per barrel higher than we forecast last month,” it added.

The EIA noted in its STEO that its higher crude oil price forecast for 2026 compared with last month reflects two major factors.

“First, we now assess that China’s ongoing purchases of oil for strategic stockpiling will place more upward pressure on oil prices than we had assumed previously,” the EIA said. “Second, this forecast recognizes that the recent round of sanctions on Russia’s oil sector could result in less oil production next year than we are currently forecasting,” it added.

The EIA went on to state in its November STEO that China has added large volumes of oil to its strategic stockpiles this year.

“Because China’s inventory builds have been strategic, they have partly acted as a source of demand, limiting downward price pressures more than our estimated balances would otherwise suggest,” the EIA said.

“We estimate that China’s strategic oil inventory builds averaged 0.8 million barrels per day from January 2025 through September of this year, but that estimate is highly uncertain given the lack of visibility into inventory data in China,” it added.

“We assume that China will continue adding oil to strategic stockpiles through 2026, although at a slightly slower pace than it has this year. The pace at which China continues to purchase oil to fill inventories is a key uncertainty in our forecast, and a slowdown in these purchases would likely put downward pressure on oil prices,” it continued.

The EIA also noted in its November STEO that it assumes sanctions on Russia will primarily increase the costs and risks of shipping Russia’s oil. The EIA outlined in the STEO that it expects this will lower the prices Russian oil producers receive.

“Although the effect of sanctions on Russia’s oil exports is still unclear, we assess a slight drop in Russia’s crude oil output of about 0.1 million barrels per day in 1Q26, as we believe the global oil market will adjust to the new sanctions,” the EIA said.

“However, if sanctions result in a large reduction in oil purchases from Russia, it could cause a steeper drop in production than we are forecasting and put upward pressure on oil prices,” it added.

Inventory Increase

The EIA went on to state in its latest STEO that much of the increase in global oil inventories is based on OPEC+ increasing production in line with targets this year.

“OPEC+ began increasing production in April 2025 and has consistently increased production targets through 2026,” the EIA said.

“For much of this year, the group’s production has been close to its targets, but we expect production will begin to fall below targets in the coming months,” it added.

“On November 2, the group again confirmed plans to increase production targets through December 2025, but for the first time, announced plans to pause any further production increases through March 2026 due to lower expected seasonal demand,” it continued.

“Even taking into consideration the latest announcement, our forecast assumes OPEC+ production will average about 1.3 million barrels per day below its latest targets next year given the expectation of substantial global oil inventory builds,” it stated.

In its November STEO, the EIA projected that global oil inventories will increase by an average of 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026, “compared with an average annual increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025”.

“Inventory builds will be highest in 4Q25 and 1Q26, averaging 2.7 million barrels per day over that time,” the EIA warned.

“Strong inventory builds could fill commercial storage options on land, which would prompt market participants to increasingly seek other, more expensive options for storing crude oil, such as floating storage,” it added.

“As a result, some of the crude oil price declines will likely reflect the higher marginal cost of storage. We also assume some portion of those oil inventory builds go into strategic stockpiles in China, which limit downward price pressures,” it continued.

“We forecast that inventory builds will moderate later in 2026 due to a combination of higher global oil demand and slightly lower oil production growth, both in response to lower oil prices,” the EIA said.

In a statement sent to Rigzone by the Enverus team on Wednesday, Enverus subsidiary Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) announced that it has lowered its Brent crude forecast by $5 per barrel for 2026 to an annual average of $55 per barrel, citing “aggressive OPEC+ supply growth and OECD inventories nearing three billion barrels, levels last seen during the 2015 shale war and 2020 Covid-19 downturn”.

“Despite geopolitical risk, the expectations for future stock levels offer downward price pressure for oil early 2026,” EIR Director Al Salazar said in the statement.

“Inventories will swell, and while Russian oil sanctions could offer upside, they remain outside our base case,” he added.

Price Drop

In a report sent to Rigzone on Thursday by the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) team, SEB Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop highlighted that Brent crude fell 3.8 percent yesterday to $62.71 per barrel.

“With that Brent has eradicated most of the gains it got when the U.S. announced sanctions related to oil sales by Rosneft and Lukoil on 22 October,” Schieldrop pointed out in the report. 

“Just before that it traded around $61 per barrel and briefly touched $60.07 per barrel. The U.S. sanctions then distorted the reality of a global market in surplus. But reality has now reemerged,” Schieldrop added.

“Now we are almost back to where we were pre the U.S. sanctions announcement,” Schieldrop went on to state.

In a separate comment sent to Rigzone on Thursday, XMArabia Analyst Nadir Belbarka noted that “OPEC’s latest Oil Market Report signals a balanced market by 2026, replacing earlier concerns about shortages”.

“Rising production from OPEC+, the U.S., and Brazil is outpacing demand, echoing IEA [International Energy Agency] findings and driving global stockpiles higher,” he added.

“This fundamental loosening is pressuring futures markets, with prices unable to hold above key resistance levels despite brief rebounds tied to U.S. refinery activity,” he continued.

Belbarka went on to state in the comment that weak economic data from China and Europe continues to weigh on demand heading into early Q1-2026.

“Political developments, including Donald Trump’s comments on expanding offshore drilling and potential regulatory actions, have added to supply-side concerns. Soft U.S. services and industrial output further dampen demand expectations,” he said.

“Upcoming U.K. GDP data will be closely watched; any downside surprise could amplify global demand worries and push crude prices lower in the near term,” Belbarka warned.

To contact the author, email [email protected]

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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