Oil rose to the highest level since early December as unrest in Iran raises the specter of supply disruptions from OPEC’s fourth-biggest producer, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that President Donald Trump is leaning toward striking the country. West Texas Intermediate settled above $59 a barrel on Monday after jumping more than 6% over the past three sessions. Trump said Tehran had offered to enter negotiations with Washington over its yearslong nuclear program. But he is leaning toward authorizing military strikes against the Middle Eastern country over its treatment of protesters, the newspaper said, citing US officials familiar with the matter. Fresh political or military unrest in Iran could threaten disruption to the country’s roughly 3.3 million barrels-per-day oil production. Iran’s foreign minister repeated government claims that rioters and terrorists killed police and civilians, while footage was broadcast on state TV saying calm had been restored nationwide. “Traders must now balance odds of a smooth transition to regime change, odds of a messy transition potentially impacting oil production and exports, odds of a military confrontation or miscalculation, and odds the regime change may pivot towards a deal on US terms, which would bear the most negative implications for energy markets,” said Dan Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities. The possibility of a disruption to Iran’s daily exports has tempered concerns over a global glut that caused a slump in prices and made investors increasingly bearish. The scale of risk has shown up clearest in options markets, where the skew toward bullish calls is the biggest for US crude futures since June and volatility is surging. The two weeks of protests in the country are the most significant challenge to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei since a nationwide uprising in 2022. It follows a surge in oil prices during

Former Alaska Representative Mary Peltola launched a campaign Monday to challenge Republican Dan Sullivan for one of Alaska’s Senate seats, putting the race in play for Democrats in November’s midterms.  “Systemic change is the only way to bring down grocery costs, save our fisheries, lower energy prices and build new housing Alaskans can afford,” Peltola said in a video announcing her candidacy. “No one from the Lower 48 is coming to save us, but I know this in my bones, there is no group of people more ready to save ourselves than Alaskans.”  Peltola held Alaska’s sole House seat until narrowly losing to a Republican in 2024. Democrats for months tried to recruit Peltola, who was also considering a bid for governor.  While President Donald Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024, the state’s down-ballot politics are often more issue-based than ideological. Peltola, an Alaskan Native, ran her previous campaigns on “fish, family and freedom” as a way to frame positions on issues like health care, taxes and abortion that are in line with the Democratic mainstream — as well as support for oil drilling and gun ownership that can be at odds with the rest of her party.  Early polling shows Sullivan vulnerable to a Peltola challenge, and Republicans across the country are preparing for midterms that have historically been difficult for the party in power. Democrats need to net four seats to take back the Senate majority.  Alaskans who get health insurance through the Affordable Care Act face some of the highest premiums in America after this month’s expiration of Biden-era subsidies. Sullivan, who had previously sought to repeal the ACA, voted last month to start debate on a Democratic proposal to extend expanded ACA subsidies for three years. The state, which already faces high prices for

(Update) January 12, 2026, 4:24 PM GMT: Article updated. Adds shares in the fifth paragraph. President Donald Trump signaled he’s leaning toward excluding Exxon Mobil Corp. from his push for US oil majors to rebuild Venezuela’s petroleum industry, saying he was displeased with the company’s response to his initiative. “I’d probably be inclined to keep Exxon out,” Trump told reporters late Sunday aboard the presidential plane on the way back to Washington from his Florida estate. “I didn’t like their response. They’re playing too cute.” Trump appeared to be referring to a White House meeting on Friday with almost 20 oil industry executives, where Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods expressed some of the strongest reservations and described Venezuela as “uninvestable.” The president’s latest comments also highlight the challenge of persuading the US oil industry to commit to an ambitious reconstruction of Venezuela’s once-mighty energy sector, which he announced within hours of the capture of former President Nicolás Maduro. Exxon shares fell as much as 1.7% Monday as crude futures were little changed.  Reviving the oil industry and undoing years of underinvestment and mismanagement would, by some estimates, require $100 billion and take a decade. Despite US moves over the past week to take full control of Venezuelan oil exports, many questions remain over how major investment on the ground could be guaranteed over such a protracted period in a country beset by corruption and insecurity. When asked Sunday which backstops or guarantees he had told oil companies he was willing to provide, Trump said: “Guarantees that they’re going to be safe, that there’s going to be no problem. And there won’t be.” Trump didn’t specify in what way he might seek to exclude Exxon. The company didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment outside of US office hours.

North America added 94 rigs week on week, according to Baker Hughes’ latest North America rotary rig count, which was published on January 9. Although the total U.S. rig count dropped by two week on week, the total Canada rig count increased by 96 during the same period, pushing the total North America rig count up to 741, comprising 544 rigs from the U.S. and 197 rigs from Canada, the count outlined. Of the total U.S. rig count of 544, 525 rigs are categorized as land rigs, 16 are categorized as offshore rigs, and three are categorized as inland water rigs. The total U.S. rig count is made up of 409 oil rigs, 124 gas rigs, and 11 miscellaneous rigs, according to Baker Hughes’ count, which revealed that the U.S. total comprises 475 horizontal rigs, 57 directional rigs, and 12 vertical rigs. Week on week, the U.S. land rig count dropped by two, and its offshore and inland water rig counts remained unchanged, Baker Hughes highlighted. The U.S. oil rig count dropped by three week on week, its gas rig count dropped by one, and its miscellaneous rig count increased by two week on week, the count showed. The U.S. horizontal rig count dropped by one, its vertical rig count dropped by two, and its directional rig count increased by one, week on week, the count revealed. A major state variances subcategory included in the rig count showed that, week on week, Louisiana dropped three rigs, and New Mexico, North Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming each dropped one rig. Utah added four rigs and Colorado added one rig week on week, the count highlighted. A major basin variances subcategory included in the rig count showed that, week on week, the Permian basin dropped three rigs, the Haynesville, Mississippian, and Williston basins

Intensity Infrastructure Partners LLC and power producer Rainbow Energy Center LLC have indicated they are nearing a positive final investment decision (FID) on a new pipeline project to bring Bakken natural gas to eastern North Dakota. “[T]he firm transportation commitments contained in executed precedent agreements are sufficient to underpin the decision to advance Phase I of their 36-inch natural gas pipeline in North Dakota, reflecting growing confidence in the region’s long-term power and industrial demand outlook”, the companies said in a joint statement. “This approach establishes a scalable, dispatchable power and gas delivery hub capable of adapting to evolving market conditions, supporting sustained data center growth, grid reliability needs and long-term industrial development across North Dakota”. “The system will provide reliable natural gas supply through multiple receipt points, including Northern Border Pipeline, WBI Energy’s existing transmission and storage network, and direct connections to six Bakken natural gas processing plants, creating a highly integrated supply platform from Bakken and Canadian production”, the online statement added. “The pipeline is designed to operate without compression fuel surcharges, reducing operational complexity while enhancing reliability and tariff transparency for shippers. “Uncommitted capacity on phase I supports incremental gas-fired generation along the planned pipeline corridor and at Coal Creek Station, leveraging existing power transmission infrastructure, a strategic geographic location and a proven operating platform. “The 36-inch pipeline enables future throughput increases without the need for duplicative greenfield infrastructure as demand continues to develop”. Rainbow chief executive Stacy Tschider said, “By leveraging established assets like Coal Creek and integrating directly with basin supply and interstate systems, this project is positioned to meet near-term needs while remaining expandable for the next generation of load growth”. The project would proceed in two phases. Phase 1 would build a 136-mile, 36-inch pipeline with a capacity of about 1.1 million dekatherms a day (Dthd). The phase 1 line would

In an insight report released recently, analysts at Wood Mackenzie outlined that U.S. tight oil production “will shrink without a crash event for the first time” in 2026. “Holding oil production flat in the U.S. today requires over two million barrels per day of new supply,” the analysts said in the report. “We expect output to fall by 200,000 barrels per day in 2026 with WTI prices 20 percent lower than 2025,” they added. “This signal could change market mentality and bolster international conventional investment plans. But caution is still needed. That 2026 tight oil deficit is filled by Guyana alone, and U.S. liquids will return to growth in 2028,” the Wood Mackenzie analysts continued. In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO) at the time of writing, which was released back in December 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that Lower 48 States crude oil production, including lease condensate and excluding the Gulf of America, would drop from an average of 11.29 million barrels per day in 2025 to an average of 11.11 million barrels per day in 2026. This production came in at 11.03 million barrels per day in 2024, the EIA’s December STEO highlighted. Total U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, was projected to drop from an average of 13.61 million barrels per day in 2025 to an average of 13.53 million barrels per day in 2026 in that STEO. Total U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, averaged 13.23 million barrels per day in 2024, the EIA’s latest STEO at the time of writing showed. The EIA’s next STEO is scheduled to be released on January 13. In the Wood Mackenzie report, the analysts also predicted a shale gas “renaissance” in the U.S. this year. “As LNG FIDs have come thick and fast,