Global oil demand growth is projected to average 930,000 b/d in 2026, up from 850,000 b/d in 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its January 2026 Oil Market Montly Report, reflecting a normalization of economic conditions after last year’s tariff disruptions and oil prices trending lower than a year ago.  This contrasts with the agency’s earlier projections of 830,000 b/d for 2025 and 860,000 b/d for 2026. The recovery in petrochemical feedstock demand will be partially offset by a continued slowdown in gasoline demand growth. All of the growth in 2026 will again come from non-OECD countries, IEA said in the report.  Global oil supply fell by 350,000 b/d month-on-month in December to 107.4 million b/d, 1.6 million b/d below the record high reached in September. Production declines in Kazakhstan and some Middle Eastern OPEC producers were partially offset by a strong rebound in Russian output. Global oil supply is now projected to grow by 2.5 million b/d this year to 108.7 million b/d, following a 3 million b/d increase in 2025. Non-OPEC+ countries contributed 1.8 million b/d of the growth in 2025 and 1.3 million b/d of the growth in 2026. “The current global surplus has been underpinned by a robust growth in oil supply since the start of 2025, with non-OPEC+ producers accounting for close to 60% of the 3 million b/d total increase. Saudi Arabia has led the rise in OPEC+ supply following the unwinding of production cuts, while the Americas quintet of the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina has dominated non-OPEC+ increases. Barring any significant sustained disruptions to output – and if OPEC+ stays the course with its current production policy and activity in the US shale patch avoids major downshifts – global oil supplies could increase by a further 2.5 million b/d

Continental Resources has suspended new drilling activity in North Dakota’s Bakken shale, citing inadequate economics under current oil price conditions. The decision was disclosed by founder and controlling shareholder Harold Hamm during an investor call hosted by Bloomberg, where Hamm said prevailing prices no longer support incremental drilling in the play. After more than 30 years of continuous activity in the Bakken, margins have compressed to levels below Continental’s return thresholds, Hamm said. Elevated service costs and weaker crude pricing have pushed breakeven requirements above current market levels, he continued.  The company characterized the move as a tactical pause rather than a permanent exit, indicating that drilling could resume if pricing improves.  The Bakken was central to the early expansion of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing in the US. However, as the play matures, productivity gains have moderated and capital efficiency has come under pressure.  Argentina Meanwhile, Continental is advancing its first large-scale expansion outside the US, targeting Vaca Muerta in Argentina’s Neuquén basin. On Jan. 5, 2026, Continental finalized an agreement with Pan American Energy (PAE), acquiring a 20% non-operated interest in four shale blocks. PAE Group chief executive Marcos Bulgheroni said Continental’s participation adds technical expertise focused on efficiency and risk reduction. Continental chief executive officer Doug Lawler said the company views Vaca Muerta as one of the most competitive shale plays globally. That deal follows Continental’s acquisition of a 90% operated interest in Los Toldos II Oeste from Pluspetrol, establishing the company in Argentina as both an operator and a non-operating partner.

An arbitrator has ruled in favor of Venture Global Inc. in the liquefied natural gas company’s dispute with Repsol LNG Holding SA over its decision to delay the commercial operations date for its 10-million tonne/year Calcasieu Pass LNG plant. In a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, executives of Virginia-based Venture Global said the International Chamber of Commerce’s arbitration body has found that the company acted as a “reasonable and prudent operator” and hadn’t breached the terms of its contract with Spain’s Repsol. The companies’ tussle centers on Venture Global’s decision earlier this decade to—citing problems with some Calcasieu Pass equipment as well as the plant’s power infrastructure—hold off on declaring COD but still export some cargoes during the commissioning phase at spot rates in early 2022. “The company is pleased that another arbitral tribunal has ruled in [Venture Global Calcasieu Pass LLC]’s favor in the proceeding with Repsol,” Venture Global’s SEC filing reads. “Multiple proceedings have now affirmed what the company has stated from the outset: VGCP has fully honored the clear and mutually agreed-upon terms of its long-term contracts without exception.” Repsol and other big energy names—Shell, bp and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. among them—had claimed Venture Global was profiteering from high spot rates rather than meeting its contracts with them and took their cases to the International Chamber of Commerce, claiming damages that could have topped $7 billion. The ICC’s arbitrators also have sided with Venture Global in Shell’s case but last October ruled in favor of bp, whose executives’ claim of damages of at least $1 billion is expected to be adjudicated this year. Venture Global—whose leaders declared COD for Calcasieu Pass last April—nearly 4 months ago settled its dispute with China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. Shares of Venture Global (Ticker: VG) were

US crude oil inventories for the week ended Jan. 16, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased by 3.6 million bbl from the previous week, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. The report was released a day later than usual due to the federal holiday Jan. 19. At 426.0 million bbl, US crude oil inventories are about 2% below the 5-year average for this time of year, the EIA report indicated. EIA said total motor gasoline inventories increased by 6.0 million bbl from last week and are about 5% above the 5-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories both increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.3 million bbl last week and are about 1% below the 5-year average for this time of year. Propane-propylene inventories decreased by 2.1 million bbl from last week and are 39% above the 5-year average for this time of year, EIA said. US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.6 million b/d for the week ended Jan. 16, which was 354,000 b/d less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 93.3% of capacity. Gasoline production decreased, averaging 8.8 million b/d. Distillate fuel production decreased by 210,000 b/d, averaging 5.1 million b/d. US crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million b/d, down by 645,000 b/d from the previous week. Over the last 4 weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million b/d, 5.3% less than the same 4-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports averaged 412,000 b/d. Distillate fuel imports averaged 215,000 b/d.

Aramco is launching its first bond sale of the year, following two debt issuances last year as the world’s largest oil company aims to increase borrowing levels and support investment and dividend payments. The government-owned oil producer plans to sell dollar-denominated bonds on international markets, according to a statement to the Saudi stock exchange. Aramco is marketing debt with maturities ranging from three to 30 years, said a person with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be identified. Aramco is a key contributor to Saudi state finances, with large dividend payments supplementing royalties linked to crude sales. As oil prices have dipped and OPEC+ policy limited Saudi production, cash flows lagged payouts before a rebound in the third quarter. Aramco’s $17 billion in debt sales over the last two years helped support payouts. Saudi Arabia’s budget remains heavily dependent on oil revenue as the kingdom pursues an ambitious modernization drive. Crude prices remain well below levels needed to balance the state budget, forcing the government to project spending shortfalls for the coming years. Initial pricing thoughts range from about 100 basis points over US Treasuries for the three-year tranche to about 165 basis points for the longer maturity. The market expects the bond sale will raise about $2 billion. Aramco has turned to debt to augment its cash flow and plans to invest more than $50 billion this year in oil and natural gas production, while maintaining its high base dividend of $21 billion. In November, the company reported a surprise jump in third-quarter profit as rising production outweighed lower crude prices. Earnings are set to slip for the full year, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. While Brent crude has risen this year amid geopolitical tensions, including US attacks on or threats of action against fellow OPEC producers Venezuela and

World petroleum and other liquid fuels production will outweigh consumption by 2.83 million barrels per day in 2026. That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) January short term energy outlook (STEO), which projected that global petroleum and other liquid fuels production and consumption will average 107.65 million barrels per day and 104.82 million barrels per day, respectively, this year. A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that production will average 106.93 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, 107.52 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and 107.92 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 108.24 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Another quarterly breakdown in the EIA’s January STEO forecast that consumption will come in at 103.36 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 104.86 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and 105.66 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 105.38 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The EIA’s latest STEO showed that world petroleum and other liquid fuels production outweighed consumption by 2.59 million barrels per day in 2025. In this STEO, the EIA highlighted that output averaged 103.67 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 105.21 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 107.88 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 108.30 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The STEO showed that consumption came in at 101.96 million barrels per day in the first quarter of last year, 103.68 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 104.55 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 104.52 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead to 2027 in its January STEO, the EIA