
In a statement sent to Rigzone by the Enverus team recently, Enverus subsidiary Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) said U.S. upstream M&A “regained momentum” in the fourth quarter of 2025.
“After a midyear slowdown, U.S. upstream M&A regained momentum in 4Q25, closing with $23.5 billion in announced deals and pushing full-year 2025 activity to $65 billion,” EIR said in the statement.
“The rebound reflects a deeper bench of motivated buyers including refunded private equity teams, increased use of securitized financing, and new international entrants all competing for scarce assets,” it added.
A table included in the statement highlighted that the top five U.S. upstream deals of the fourth quarter comprised a deal between SM Energy and Civitas Resources for $7.691 billion, a deal between Harbour Energy and LLOG Holdings for $3.200 billion, a deal between Antero Resources and HG Energy II for $2.8 billion, a deal between an “undisclosed buyer” and Baytex Energy for $2.305 billion, and a deal between JERA and GEP Haynesville/Williams for $1.5 billion.
“In the closing months of 2025 it looks like the market found its edge again even with fewer headline-making mega-mergers as it reached a faster pace of acquisitions and divestments,” Andrew Dittmar, principal analyst at EIR, said in the statement.
“Fresh capital is back in the field, and the buyer mix has broadened in a way that keeps pricing firm. Reloaded private equity is hunting, ABS-backed groups are bidding aggressively for cash-flowing production, and international companies are no longer limiting their U.S. interest to the most obvious gas trades,” he added.
“That combination helped deal activity finish the year in strong form and sets up an active 2026,” Dittmar continued.
In the statement, EIR highlighted that international buyers accounted for roughly $6 billion of 4Q25 acquisitions, “underscoring a continued willingness to pay for exposure to U.S. commodities”.
“Last year international capital reached a seven-year high for acquisitions of U.S. upstream assets. Besides the obvious Haynesville deals, buyers chased Gulf of Mexico and DJ Basin assets,” EIR noted in the statement.
“International buying in U.S. upstream markets soared to a seven year high of $7.4 billion in 2025, only to be topped in the first month of 2026 as Mitsubishi made a blockbuster $7.5 billion purchase of Aethon Energy,” it added.
“That deal returned attention to the core Haynesville focus region as international buyers continue to prioritize Gulf Coast gas,” it said.
“With opportunities in the Haynesville becoming sparse, EIR expects buyers to look at other options including Eagle Ford and Anadarko Basin options for gas exposure,” EIR continued.
“At the same time, buyers deploying asset-backed securitization (ABS) have become increasingly influential, particularly in transactions centered on production-heavy assets with second-tier inventory, adding competition in segments that historically traded at wider discounts,” EIR went on to state.
In the statement, the company said deal flow in 4Q25 highlighted stronger activity outside the Permian’s premium corridors.
“Gulf Coast gas pricing continued to climb on intensifying demand, while Appalachia remained steady with public buyers prioritizing adjacency and operational fit,” EIR noted.
“By contrast, Permian-only transactions were a minor portion of 4Q25 value reflecting the scarcity of top-tier packages coming to market and limited willingness among Permian pure-play E&Ps to exit,” it added.
“The few remaining private operators holding high-quality Permian assets are likely waiting for a more constructive crude price environment in order to receive top dollar. Given the challenge of buying back in, they may view current holdings as the last chance to make a big splash on a Permian sale,” it highlighted.
“The biggest fourth quarter bet on the Permian came from SM Energy’s corporate merger with Civitas Resources, a multi-basin deal that also included significant holdings in the DJ Basin,” it pointed out.
EIR went on to state in its report that its analysis continues to show A&D or asset markets ascribing more value to inventory than public equities.
“This creates a strategic tension for public E&Ps: divestitures can crystallize value that equity markets do not fully recognize, but selling too much inventory raises concerns about duration,” EIR said.
“The result is a cautious posture from public companies that may favor matching non-core sales with acquisition opportunities in core focus regions that build operational synergies,” it added.
EIR said statement that there were “a couple [of] noteworthy public E&P mergers in 2025 with the tie-ups of Crescent Energy with Vital Energy and the fourth quarter merger of SM Energy and Civitas Resources”.
“These deals represent smaller public E&Ps like Civitas and Vital with challenging strategic options moving forward deciding to exit,” EIR noted.
“However, the yardstick for markets approving of these types of deals is high with operational synergies expected. The lack of attractive strategic combinations has likely put a damper on further consolidation. But more multi-basin tie-ups always remain a possibility,” it said.
Dittmar went on to note in the statement that “public equity investors are demanding precision in deals”.
“In 2025 investors rewarded deals that were clearly additive with overlapping operations, credible cost synergies, and durable inventory quality but penalized transactions that looked like scale for scale’s sake,” he added.
“At the same time, private market clearing prices for inventory have stayed resilient, which is why we’re seeing a wider gap between what assets can fetch in M&A and how similar inventory is valued in equities,” he said.
“That gap is likely to keep non-core divestitures on the table in 2026 with the Anadarko Basin, Williston Basin and Utica likely focus regions,” he continued.
EIR went on to note in its statement that, as 2026 begins, it expects upstream M&A to remain active, “led by A&D and supported by fresh private capital, ABS-backed buyers and sustained international interest”.
“With fewer top-tier Permian packages transacting, the market’s center of gravity should continue to broaden toward gas-weighted plays and non-core regional opportunities,” EIR said.
“The key themes to watch are the durability of the equity-versus-M&A valuation gap, the pace of public-company divestitures, and continued consolidation in Canada,” it added.
Dittmar went on to highlight in the statement that “the biggest questions headed into 2026 will be around commodity prices and the strategic direction taken by public companies”.
“Price stability should keep markets rolling while an influx of volatility from multiple geopolitical risk factors could derail markets. We know private capital is ready to buy, the question is whether public E&Ps are ready to sell,” he added.
In a market update sent to Rigzone by the Rystad Energy team recently, Rystad noted that global upstream M&A activity is expected to be lower in 2026 than in 2025.
Rystad highlighted in that update that, according to its analysis, “nearly $152 billion worth of opportunities [are] on the market as of January this year”. The company added that “timing and execution will determine whether several mega deals will go through, with numerous high value assets still on the market waiting for the right buyers”.
According to a chart included in the Rystad update, which showed annual upstream M&A activity by continent and deal count, global upstream M&A deal value came in at $170 billion in 2025, $204 billion in 2024, $255 billion in 2023, $152 billion in 2022, $184 billion in 2021, $103 billion in 2020, and $154 billion in 2019.
This chart highlighted that it excluded “government mandated deals and production sharing contract awards/expiry”.
Rystad noted in its update that global upstream M&A activity “dipped 17 percent year on year to approximately $170 billion in 2025, with deal count decreasing 12 percent to 466”.
“Consolidation within North American shale plays, LNG investments across U.S. and Argentina, and majors’ spinning off assets in Asia and the UK to form new regional joint ventures emerged as key themes last year,” Rystad said in the update.
In a statement sent to Rigzone back in October 2025, EIR noted that, “after a hot start to the year”, U.S. upstream mergers and acquisitions “slid into a slump in the third quarter, with deal value dropping to $9.7 billion, marking the third straight quarterly decline”.
“Persistently low crude prices have kept many buyers on the bench, particularly for oil-weighted private equity-backed oil and gas exits that fueled much of the activity in the recent past,” EIR said in that statement.
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