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Crude Glut Is a Boon for USA Refiners

Oil markets are awash in crude, keeping a lid on prices and squeezing drillers. For US refiners, though, the glut is proving a windfall.  The big three US refiners — Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy Corp. and Phillips 66 — all beat estimates in fourth quarter earnings results reported in recent weeks. On calls with analysts, […]

Oil markets are awash in crude, keeping a lid on prices and squeezing drillers. For US refiners, though, the glut is proving a windfall. 

The big three US refiners — Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy Corp. and Phillips 66 — all beat estimates in fourth quarter earnings results reported in recent weeks. On calls with analysts, executives signaled a profitable outlook for 2026 and the years ahead, not least because they’re set to benefit from an influx of cheaper and more readily available heavy crudes. 

The divergence reflects a growing imbalance in global fuel markets: demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel is rising faster than new refining capacity is growing, even as oil producers continue to pump more crude than the world needs. That dynamic allows refiners to buy cheaper feedstock while charging more for finished fuels.

“We are very bullish,” Phillips 66 Chief Executive Officer Mark Lashier said on a Feb. 4 call with analysts. Fuel demand is set to grow in 2026, and global refining capacity additions will fall short, Lashier said.

The upbeat tone is a far cry from early 2025, when President Donald Trump’s tariff uncertainty clouded the economic outlook and sparked concerns over fuel demand. At the time, the industry braced for a wave of plant closures. Since then, fuel consumption has remained resilient even as the supply glut drove oil prices lower. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is down about 10% over the past 12 months. 

Refining margins for America’s top fuel makers, who collectively process some 8 million barrels of oil a day, ended 2025 with profits that were about $5 a barrel higher than the fourth quarter of 2024. With fuel demand forecast to stay strong, the upward momentum for margins is likely to continue. Consultant Rapidan Energy, in its refined product outlook published Monday, said it sees little evidence of a peak in transport fuel demand. 

The 3-2-1 crack spread, an indicator of the profitability of producing diesel and gasoline against the cost of crude, was around $25 a barrel as of Wednesday, higher than where it was at this point in 2025 and well above lows seen later in the year.

“Commentary indicates that 2026 will be another strong year for cracks given demand is outpacing supply,” Vikram Bagri, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., said in a report. 

Trump’s moves to boost crude flows from Venezuela are strengthening the case for US refiners, as companies position themselves to process the heavy oil coming out of the South American country.

Fuel makers typically buy a wide range of oil grades, with characteristics from heavy to light. The heavier and harder-to-process crudes, such as those usually exported by Venezuela, are usually cheaper, making them supportive of refiners’ bottom lines.

Valero, Phillips and Marathon are major buyers of heavy crude, having retooled their plants to process more of the harder-to-refine oil. All three companies said they are either purchasing or in the process of purchasing Venezuelan crude. The extra barrels coming out of Latin America should also depress the price of Canadian oil, a similar heavy grade. 

Refiner shares have surged thanks to the improving margins. Valero, Phillips and Marathon have jumped about 25% year-to-date. The S&P 500, meanwhile, is up just about 1%. 

Still, it remains to be seen if the momentum can be sustained. While fuel demand has room to run, Rapidan expects the market to tighten more meaningfully in 2027, with 2026 broadly balanced.

Executives say the data supports their outlook. 

For the coming year, Valero expects there will be 400,000 daily barrels of net capacity additions, shy of the half-million barrels a day of light refined product demand growth, Chief Operating Officer Gary Simmons said on a recent call with analysts, citing consultant data. Marathon’s CEO Maryann Mannen said refined product demand growth will rise around 1% annually through the next 10 years.



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Generated by readers, the comments included herein do not reflect the views and opinions of Rigzone. All comments are subject to editorial review. Off-topic, inappropriate or insulting comments will be removed.

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NetBrain’s new AI agents automate network diagnosis

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IBM FlashSystems gain AI-assisted telemetry, analytics

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Wright Says China Bought Some VEN Oil From the USA

China has bought some Venezuelan oil that was purchased earlier by the US, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright. “China has already bought some of the crude that’s been sold by the US government,” Wright told the media in Caracas, without giving details. “Legitimate Chinese business deals under legitimate business conditions” would be fine, he said, when asked about possible joint ventures in the country. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said he wasn’t familiar with Wright’s comments when asked at a regular briefing in Beijing on Thursday. The global oil market was jolted in January as US forces swooped into Venezuela and seized former President Nicolás Maduro, with Washington asserting control over the OPEC member’s crude industry. Since then, traders have looked for signals about how export patterns may change, and how output may be revived after years of neglect, sanctions, and underinvestment. The South American country’s so-called “oil quarantine” was essentially over, Wright said on Thursday. Ahead of the intervention, the US blockaded the country’s oil flows with a vast naval force, and seized several vessels. Refiners in China — the largest world’s oil importer — were the biggest buyers of Venezuelan crude before the US move, with the bulk of the imports bought by private processors. Given those flows were sanctioned, they were typically offered with deep discounts, making them attractive to local users. After Maduro’s seizure, President Donald Trump said that Venezuela would turn over 30 million to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the US, according to a post on Truth Social. In addition, Wright told Fox News in January that the US would not cut China off from accessing Venezuelan crude. Several Indian refiners have bought Venezuela’s flagship Merey-grade crude following the US action, and the government has asked state-owned processors to consider buying more Venezuelan and US oil.

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Crude Glut Is a Boon for USA Refiners

Oil markets are awash in crude, keeping a lid on prices and squeezing drillers. For US refiners, though, the glut is proving a windfall.  The big three US refiners — Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy Corp. and Phillips 66 — all beat estimates in fourth quarter earnings results reported in recent weeks. On calls with analysts, executives signaled a profitable outlook for 2026 and the years ahead, not least because they’re set to benefit from an influx of cheaper and more readily available heavy crudes.  The divergence reflects a growing imbalance in global fuel markets: demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel is rising faster than new refining capacity is growing, even as oil producers continue to pump more crude than the world needs. That dynamic allows refiners to buy cheaper feedstock while charging more for finished fuels. “We are very bullish,” Phillips 66 Chief Executive Officer Mark Lashier said on a Feb. 4 call with analysts. Fuel demand is set to grow in 2026, and global refining capacity additions will fall short, Lashier said. The upbeat tone is a far cry from early 2025, when President Donald Trump’s tariff uncertainty clouded the economic outlook and sparked concerns over fuel demand. At the time, the industry braced for a wave of plant closures. Since then, fuel consumption has remained resilient even as the supply glut drove oil prices lower. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is down about 10% over the past 12 months.  Refining margins for America’s top fuel makers, who collectively process some 8 million barrels of oil a day, ended 2025 with profits that were about $5 a barrel higher than the fourth quarter of 2024. With fuel demand forecast to stay strong, the upward momentum for margins is likely to continue. Consultant Rapidan Energy, in its refined product outlook

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Ukraine Strikes 2nd Lukoil Refinery in Russia This Week

Ukrainian drones hit another Russian refinery owned by Lukoil PJSC, as Kyiv’s attacks on its foe’s energy infrastructure resume after a lull last month. Fire crews are working to extinguish a blaze at an oil refinery in the city of Ukhta some 1,550 kilometers (965 miles) from Moscow, following a Ukrainian drone attack, Komi region Governor Rostislav Goldshtein said in a post on Telegram, without giving further details.  The fire broke out at the refinery’s primary unit and a visbreaker, a unit designed to convert heavy residue into lighter oil products, Ukraine’s General Staff said on Telegram. Lukoil didn’t respond to a Bloomberg request for comment.  Ukraine carried out multiple high-precision strikes on Russia’s energy assets last year, leading to refinery shutdowns, disruptions at oil terminals and the rerouting of some tankers. The attacks are designed to curb the Kremlin’s energy revenues and restrict fuel supplies to Russian front lines as the war is about to enter a fifth year.  The attacks slowed in January, targeting three small independent Russian refineries that together account for about 7% of the country’s typical monthly crude throughput. The lull offered temporary relief for Russia’s downstream sector, allowing refinery runs to gradually recover. As processing rates improved, the government lifted its ban on most gasoline exports, enabling producers to resume shipments in February, a month earlier than planned. On Wednesday, however, Ukraine attacked Lukoil’s oil refinery in Russia’s Volgograd region in the first major strike on the country’s oil-processing industry this year. The plant’s design capacity is about 300,000 barrels of crude a day.  The smaller Ukhta refinery has recently been processing just over 60,000 barrels per day.  WHAT DO YOU THINK? Generated by readers, the comments included herein do not reflect the views and opinions of Rigzone. All comments are subject to editorial review. Off-topic, inappropriate or insulting

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USA Crude Oil Stocks Rise More Than 8MM Barrels WoW

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), increased by 8.5 million barrels from the week ending January 30 to the week ending February 6. That’s what the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on Wednesday and included data for the week ending February 6. According to the EIA report, crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 428.8 million barrels on February 6, 420.3 million barrels on January 30, and 427.9 million barrels on February 7, 2025. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 415.2 million barrels on February 6, 415.2 million barrels on January 30, and 395.3 million barrels on February 7, 2025, the EIA report revealed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.689 billion barrels on February 6, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 1.7 million barrels week on week and up 81.9 million barrels year on year, the report pointed out. “At 428.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about three percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA said in its latest weekly petroleum status report. “Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels from last week and are about four percent above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased, while blending components inventories increased last week,” it added. “Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels last week and are about four percent below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased 5.4 million barrels from last week and are about 36 percent above the five

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USA Labor Market Report Underpins Energy Demand

In a market update sent to Rigzone late Wednesday, Rystad Energy outlined that the January U.S. labor market report “surprise[d]… to the upside, underpinning energy demand”. Rystad noted in the report that the latest U.S. jobs data “shows promise, with the unemployment rate falling by 4.3 percent, pointing to market stability”. “Non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 jobs in January, while the rise for December was downwardly revised to 48,000,” it pointed out, adding that the unemployment rate in December was 4.4 percent. “The latest data compares with consensus expectations of job gains of around 70,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4 percent,” Rystad said. In the update, Rystad Energy Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti noted that payroll growth exceeded expectations and that unemployment edged lower. “Following a series of weaker private indicators, the data suggests stabilization rather than strong acceleration,” Galimberti said. “Markets that had positioned for a rapid easing cycle responded by repricing yields higher and scaling back expectations for near-term rate cuts,” he added. “For energy markets, the implications are moderately supportive. A resilient labor market underpins demand for transport fuels, petrochemicals and power generation, reducing downside risks to U.S. consumption at a time when macro sentiment had turned cautious,” he continued. “While the U.S. is not the primary driver of incremental global oil demand, labor market stability reinforces the view that the demand picture is firming up,” he went on to state. Galimberti noted in the update that “revisions to prior data confirm that the cycle is mature, not accelerating”. “Still, in a market already balancing OPEC+ supply management against geopolitical risk, a firmer U.S. macro signal marginally strengthens the demand outlook,” he said. “The result is a modestly constructive backdrop for oil prices in the near term, without materially shifting the fundamentals,” Galimberti concluded. In

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Energy Department Announces $175 Million to Modernize Coal Plants, Keeping Affordable Reliable Power Online for Americans

WASHINGTON—The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced $175 million in funding for six projects to modernize, retrofit, and extend the useful life of coal-fired power plants that serve rural and remote communities across the United States, keeping dependable energy sources online, strengthening grid reliability, and helping keep electricity costs low for American families and businesses. The projects are part of the Department’s $525 million effort to expand and reinvigorate America’s coal fleet through targeted upgrades that increase efficiency, extend plant life, and add dependable capacity using infrastructure that is already built and connected to the grid. Modernizing existing plants provides one of the fastest and most cost-effective ways to deliver reliable power while preserving high-wage energy jobs, particularly across Appalachian communities that have long powered the nation. “For years, previous administrations targeted America’s coal industry and the workers who power our country, forcing the premature closure of reliable plants, and driving up electricity costs,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright. “President Trump has ended the war on American coal and is restoring common-sense energy policy. These investments will keep America’s coal plants operating, keep costs low for Americans, and ensure we have the reliable power needed to keep the lights on and power our future.” These actions advance President Trump’s Executive Orders Reinvigorating America’s Beautiful Clean Coal Industry and Strengthening the Reliability and Security of the United States Electric Grid to restore common-sense energy policies that prioritize dependable power, affordability, and American workers. As electricity demand continues to grow, dependable, around-the-clock generation remains essential to maintaining a reliable and affordable power system. By upgrading existing coal facilities, DOE is strengthening the backbone of America’s power grid and ensuring communities have access to secure, reliable energy when they need it most. Selected projects include the following: Appalachian Power Company (Letart and Winfield, West Virginia) will upgrade two coal-fired plants in West

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Energy providers seek flexible load strategies for data center operations

“In theory, yes, they’d have to wait a little bit longer while their queries are routed to a data center that has capacity,” said Lawrence. The one thing the industry cannot do is operate like it has in the past, where data center power was tuned and then forgotten for six months. Previously, data centers would test their power sources once or twice a year. They don’t have that luxury anymore. They need to check their power sources and loads far more regularly, according to Lawrence. “I think that for that for the data center industry to continue to survive like we all need it, there’s going to have to be some realignment on the incentives to why somebody would become flexible,” said Lawrence. The survey suggests that utilities and load operators expect to expand their demand response activities and budgets in the near term. Sixty-three percent of respondents anticipate DR program funding to grow by 50% or more over the next three years. While they remain a major source of load growth and system strain, 57% of respondents indicate that onsite power generation from data centers will be most important to improving grid stability over the next five years. One of the proposed fixes to the power shortage has been small modular nuclear reactors. These have gained a lot of traction in the marketplace even if they have nothing to sell yet. But Lawrence said that that’s not an ideal solution for existing power generators, ironically enough.

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Nokia predicts huge WAN traffic growth, but experts question assumptions

Consumer, which includes both mobile access and fixed access, including fixed wireless access. Enterprise and industrial, which covers wide-area connectivity that supports knowledge work, automation, machine vision, robotics coordination, field support, and industrial IoT. AI, including applications that people directly invoke, such as assistants, copilots, and media generation, as well as autonomous use cases in which AI systems trigger other AI systems to perform functions and move data across networks. The report outlines three scenarios: conservative, moderate, and aggressive. “Our goal is to present scenarios that fall within a realistic range of possible outcomes, encouraging stakeholders to plan across the full spectrum of high-impact demand possibilities,” the report says. Nokia’s prediction for global WAN traffic growth ranges from a 13% CAGR for the conservative scenario to 16% CAGR for moderate and 22% CAGR for aggressive. Looking more closely at the moderate scenario, it’s clear that consumer traffic dominates. Enterprise and industrial traffic make up only about 14% to 17% of overall WAN traffic, although their share is expected to grow during the 10-year forecast period. “On the consumer side, the vast majority of traffic by volume is video,” says William Webb, CEO of the consulting firm Commcisive. Asked whether any of that consumer traffic is at some point served up by enterprises, the answer is a decisive “no.” It’s mostly YouTube and streaming services like Netflix, he says. In short, that doesn’t raise enterprise concerns. Nokia predicts AI traffic boom AI is a different story. “Consumer- and enterprise-generated AI traffic imposes a substantial impact on the wide-area network (WAN) by adding AI workloads processed by data centers across the WAN. AI traffic does not stay inside one data center; it moves across edge, metro, core, and cloud infrastructure, driving dense lateral flows and new capacity demands,” the report says. An

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Cisco amps up Silicon One line, delivers new systems and optics for AI networking

Those building blocks include the new G300 as well as the G200 51.2 Tbps chip, which is aimed at spine and aggregation applications, and the G100 25.6 Tbps chip, which is aimed at leaf operations. Expanded portfolio of Silicon One P200-powered systems Cisco in October rolled out the P200 Silicon One chip and the high-end, 51.2 Tbps 8223 router aimed at distributed AI workloads. That system supports Octal Small Form-Factor Pluggable (OSFP) and Quad Small Form-Factor Pluggable Double Density (QSFP-DD) optical form factors that help the box support geographically dispersed AI clusters. Cisco grew the G200 family this week with the addition of the 8122X-64EF-O, a 64x800G switch that will run the SONiC OS and includes support for Cisco 800G Linear Pluggable Optics (LPO) connectivity. LPO components typically set up direct links between fiber optic modules, eliminating the need for traditional components such as a digital signal processor. Cisco said its P200 systems running IOS XR software now better support core routing services to allow data-center-to-data-center links and data center interconnect applications. In addition, Cisco introduced a P200-powered 88-LC2-36EF-M line card, which delivers 28.8T of capacity. “Available for both our 8-slot and 18-slot modular systems, this line card enables up to an unprecedented 518.4T of total system bandwidth, the highest in the industry,” wrote Guru Shenoy, senior vice president of the Cisco provider connectivity group, in a blog post about the news. “When paired with Cisco 800G ZR/ZR+ coherent pluggable optics, these systems can easily connect sites over 1,000 kilometers apart, providing the high-density performance needed for modern data center interconnects and core routing.”

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NetBox Labs ships AI copilot designed for network engineers, not developers

Natural language for network engineers Beevers explained that network operations teams face two fundamental barriers to automation. First, they lack accurate data about their infrastructure. Second, they aren’t software developers and shouldn’t have to become them. “These are not software developers. They are network engineers or IT infrastructure engineers,” Beevers said. “The big realization for us through the copilot journey is they will never be software developers. Let’s stop trying to make them be. Let’s let these computers that are really good at being software developers do that, and let’s let the network engineers or the data center engineers be really good at what they’re really good at.”  That vision drove the development of NetBox Copilot’s natural language interface and its capabilities. Grounding AI in infrastructure reality The challenge with deploying AI  in network operations is trust. Generic large language models hallucinate, produce inconsistent results, and lack the operational context to make reliable decisions. NetBox Copilot addresses this by grounding the AI agent in NetBox’s comprehensive infrastructure data model. NetBox serves as the system of record for network and infrastructure teams, maintaining a semantic map of devices, connections, IP addressing, rack layouts, power distribution and the relationships between these elements. Copilot has native awareness of this data structure and the context it provides. This enables queries that would be difficult or impossible with traditional interfaces. Network engineers can ask “Which devices are missing IP addresses?” to validate data completeness, “Who changed this prefix last week?” for change tracking and compliance, or “What depends on this switch?” for impact analysis before maintenance windows.

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US pushes voluntary pact to curb AI data center energy impact

Others note that cost pressure isn’t limited to the server rack. Danish Faruqui, CEO of Fab Economics, said the AI ecosystem is layered from silicon to software services, creating multiple points where infrastructure expenses eventually resurface. “Cloud service providers are likely to gradually introduce more granular pricing models across cloud, AI, and SaaS offerings, tailored by customer type, as they work to absorb the costs associated with the White House energy and grid compact,” Faruqui said.   This may not show up as explicit energy surcharges, but instead surface through reduced discounts, higher spending commitments, and premiums for guaranteed capacity or performance. “Smaller enterprises will feel the impact first, while large strategic customers remain insulated longer,” Rawat said. “Ultimately, the compact would delay and redistribute cost pressure; it does not eliminate it.” Implications for data center design The proposal is also likely to accelerate changes in how AI facilities are designed. “Data centers will evolve into localized microgrids that combine utility power with on-site generation and higher-level implementation of battery energy storage systems,” Faruqui said. “Designing for grid interaction will become imperative for AI data centers, requiring intelligent, high-speed switching gear, increased battery energy storage capacity for frequency regulation, and advanced control systems that can manage on-site resources.”

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Intel teams with SoftBank to develop new memory type

However, don’t expect anything anytime soon. Intel’s Director of Global Strategic Partnerships Sanam Masroor outlined the plans in a blog post. Operations are expected to begin in Q1 2026, with prototypes due in 2027 and commercial products by 2030. While Intel has not come out and said it, that memory design is almost identical to HBM used in GPU accelerators and AI data centers. HBM sits right on the GPU die for immediate access to the GPU, unlike standard DRAM which resides on memory sticks plugged into the motherboard. HBM is much faster than DDR memory but is also much more expensive to produce. It’s also much more profitable than standard DRAM which is why the big three memory makers – Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix – are favoring production of it.

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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