In a report sent to Rigzone by the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) team on Tuesday morning, Bjarne Schieldrop, the chief commodities analyst at the company, said Brent crude was “ripe for a correction lower”.
“Brent closed down 0.8 percent yesterday at $80.15 per barrel and traded as low as $79.42 per barrel intraday,” Schieldrop said in the report.
“Brent is trading down another 0.4 percent this morning to $79.9 per barrel. It is hard to track and assign exactly … from Donald Trump’s announcements yesterday, which was impacting crude oil prices in different ways,” Schieldrop added.
“But crude oil was already ripe for a correction lower as it recently went into strongly overbought territory. So, Brent would probably have sold off a bit anyhow, even without any announcements from Trump,” he went on to state.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Monday, Schieldrop highlighted that Brent crude “gained another 1.3 percent last week with a close of $80.79 per barrel” and noted that the commodity “reached a high of $82.63 per barrel last Wednesday”.
In that report, Schieldrop said the new sanctions on Russia have pushed crude oil higher over the past weeks but added that “speculators have also helped to drive flat prices higher, as well as driving the front-end of the crude curves into steeper backwardation”.
“Speculators typically buy the front-end of the crude curves and thus tend to bend the forward curves into steeper backwardation,” he noted.
“So, curve shapes are not fully objective measures of tightness. Net-long speculative positions (Brent +WTI) rose 52.4 million barrels over the week to last Tuesday. In total they are up 415 million barrels to 577 million barrels versus the low point in the autumn of 162 million barrels in early September,” he said.
Schieldrop stated in that report that Brent crude “has now technically pulled back from overbought with RSI at 65.2 and back below the 70-line”.
“But this does not look like just a speculatively driven frothy flash in the pan,” the analyst said in that report.
“Do not forget that time-spreads have been tightening since early December and flat prices have risen higher along with them,” he added.
“Even if we find it likely that Brent crude will make a pullback below the 80-line, it does not mean that this is the end of the gains,” he continued.
A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on Saturday showed that J.P. Morgan expected the Brent crude price to average $74 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025 and $73 per barrel overall this year.
A separate research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on Monday stated that the estimated value of open interest across energy markets increased by two percent week on week to $684 billion.
“The increase was predominantly driven by natural gas and petroleum product markets, while crude oil saw a decline of -$2.6 billion WOW, as the total outflows across all trader types were only partially offset by higher prices,” the note said.
“Petroleum products experienced a healthy $5 billion WOW of inflows across all trader types, which was further supported by positive price actions across the curves. Our oil strategists highlighted robust demand through January to date (partially driven by colder than normal weather) and a decline in the oil rig count in the United States,” it added.
“The estimated value of open interest in natural gas markets increased by ~$10 billion WOW as the inflows of $5 billion WOW were further complemented by stronger price actions across European benchmarks as the continent tries to attract LNG cargoes to normalize its storage trajectory, while weather and new LNG facilities also put pressure on U.S. gas storage levels,” the note continued.
According to its January short term energy outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the Brent spot price to average $76.34 per barrel in the first quarter of this year and $74.31 per barrel overall in 2025.
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