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A Visual Guide to How Diffusion Models Work

This article is aimed at those who want to understand exactly how Diffusion Models work, with no prior knowledge expected. I’ve tried to use illustrations wherever possible to provide visual intuitions on each part of these models. I’ve kept mathematical notation and equations to a minimum, and where they are necessary I’ve tried to define […]

This article is aimed at those who want to understand exactly how Diffusion Models work, with no prior knowledge expected. I’ve tried to use illustrations wherever possible to provide visual intuitions on each part of these models. I’ve kept mathematical notation and equations to a minimum, and where they are necessary I’ve tried to define and explain them as they occur.

Intro

I’ve framed this article around three main questions:

  • What exactly is it that diffusion models learn?
  • How and why do diffusion models work?
  • Once you’ve trained a model, how do you get useful stuff out of it?

The examples will be based on the glyffuser, a minimal text-to-image diffusion model that I previously implemented and wrote about. The architecture of this model is a standard text-to-image denoising diffusion model without any bells or whistles. It was trained to generate pictures of new “Chinese” glyphs from English definitions. Have a look at the picture below — even if you’re not familiar with Chinese writing, I hope you’ll agree that the generated glyphs look pretty similar to the real ones!

Random examples of glyffuser training data (left) and generated data (right).

What exactly is it that diffusion models learn?

Generative Ai models are often said to take a big pile of data and “learn” it. For text-to-image diffusion models, the data takes the form of pairs of images and descriptive text. But what exactly is it that we want the model to learn? First, let’s forget about the text for a moment and concentrate on what we are trying to generate: the images.

Probability distributions

Broadly, we can say that we want a generative AI model to learn the underlying probability distribution of the data. What does this mean? Consider the one-dimensional normal (Gaussian) distribution below, commonly written 𝒩(μ,σ²) and parameterized with mean μ = 0 and variance σ² = 1. The black curve below shows the probability density function. We can sample from it: drawing values such that over a large number of samples, the set of values reflects the underlying distribution. These days, we can simply write something like x = random.gauss(0, 1) in Python to sample from the standard normal distribution, although the computational sampling process itself is non-trivial!

Values sampled from an underlying distribution (here, the standard normal 𝒩(0,1)) can then be used to estimate the parameters of that distribution.

We could think of a set of numbers sampled from the above normal distribution as a simple dataset, like that shown as the orange histogram above. In this particular case, we can calculate the parameters of the underlying distribution using maximum likelihood estimation, i.e. by working out the mean and variance. The normal distribution estimated from the samples is shown by the dotted line above. To take some liberties with terminology, you might consider this as a simple example of “learning” an underlying probability distribution. We can also say that here we explicitly learnt the distribution, in contrast with the implicit methods that diffusion models use.

Conceptually, this is all that generative AI is doing — learning a distribution, then sampling from that distribution!

Data representations

What, then, does the underlying probability distribution of a more complex dataset look like, such as that of the image dataset we want to use to train our diffusion model?

First, we need to know what the representation of the data is. Generally, a machine learning (ML) model requires data inputs with a consistent representation, i.e. format. For the example above, it was simply numbers (scalars). For images, this representation is commonly a fixed-length vector.

The image dataset used for the glyffuser model is ~21,000 pictures of Chinese glyphs. The images are all the same size, 128 × 128 = 16384 pixels, and greyscale (single-channel color). Thus an obvious choice for the representation is a vector x of length 16384, where each element corresponds to the color of one pixel: x = (x,x₂,…,x₁₆₃₈₄). We can call the domain of all possible images for our dataset “pixel space”.

An example glyph with pixel values labelled (downsampled to 32 × 32 pixels for readability).

Dataset visualization

We make the assumption that our individual data samples, x, are actually sampled from an underlying probability distribution, q(x), in pixel space, much as the samples from our first example were sampled from an underlying normal distribution in 1-dimensional space. Note: the notation x q(x) is commonly used to mean: “the random variable x sampled from the probability distribution q(x).”

This distribution is clearly much more complex than a Gaussian and cannot be easily parameterized — we need to learn it with a ML model, which we’ll discuss later. First, let’s try to visualize the distribution to gain a better intution.

As humans find it difficult to see in more than 3 dimensions, we need to reduce the dimensionality of our data. A small digression on why this works: the manifold hypothesis posits that natural datasets lie on lower dimensional manifolds embedded in a higher dimensional space — think of a line embedded in a 2-D plane, or a plane embedded in 3-D space. We can use a dimensionality reduction technique such as UMAP to project our dataset from 16384 to 2 dimensions. The 2-D projection retains a lot of structure, consistent with the idea that our data lie on a lower dimensional manifold embedded in pixel space. In our UMAP, we see two large clusters corresponding to characters in which the components are arranged either horizontally (e.g. 明) or vertically (e.g. 草). An interactive version of the plot below with popups on each datapoint is linked here.

 Click here for an interactive version of this plot.

Let’s now use this low-dimensional UMAP dataset as a visual shorthand for our high-dimensional dataset. Remember, we assume that these individual points have been sampled from a continuous underlying probability distribution q(x). To get a sense of what this distribution might look like, we can apply a KDE (kernel density estimation) over the UMAP dataset. (Note: this is just an approximation for visualization purposes.)

This gives a sense of what q(x) should look like: clusters of glyphs correspond to high-probability regions of the distribution. The true q(x) lies in 16384 dimensions — this is the distribution we want to learn with our diffusion model.

We showed that for a simple distribution such as the 1-D Gaussian, we could calculate the parameters (mean and variance) from our data. However, for complex distributions such as images, we need to call on ML methods. Moreover, what we will find is that for diffusion models in practice, rather than parameterizing the distribution directly, they learn it implicitly through the process of learning how to transform noise into data over many steps.

Takeaway

The aim of generative AI such as diffusion models is to learn the complex probability distributions underlying their training data and then sample from these distributions.

How and why do diffusion models work?

Diffusion models have recently come into the spotlight as a particularly effective method for learning these probability distributions. They generate convincing images by starting from pure noise and gradually refining it. To whet your interest, have a look at the animation below that shows the denoising process generating 16 samples.

In this section we’ll only talk about the mechanics of how these models work but if you’re interested in how they arose from the broader context of generative models, have a look at the further reading section below.

What is “noise”?

Let’s first precisely define noise, since the term is thrown around a lot in the context of diffusion. In particular, we are talking about Gaussian noise: consider the samples we talked about in the section about probability distributions. You could think of each sample as an image of a single pixel of noise. An image that is “pure Gaussian noise”, then, is one in which each pixel value is sampled from an independent standard Gaussian distribution, 𝒩(0,1). For a pure noise image in the domain of our glyph dataset, this would be noise drawn from 16384 separate Gaussian distributions. You can see this in the previous animation. One thing to keep in mind is that we can choose the means of these noise distributions, i.e. center them, on specific values — the pixel values of an image, for instance.

For convenience, you’ll often find the noise distributions for image datasets written as a single multivariate distribution 𝒩(0,I) where I is the identity matrix, a covariance matrix with all diagonal entries equal to 1 and zeroes elsewhere. This is simply a compact notation for a set of multiple independent Gaussians — i.e. there are no correlations between the noise on different pixels. In the basic implementations of diffusion models, only uncorrelated (a.k.a. “isotropic”) noise is used. This article contains an excellent interactive introduction on multivariate Gaussians.

Diffusion process overview

Below is an adaptation of the somewhat-famous diagram from Ho et al.’s seminal paper “Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models” which gives an overview of the whole diffusion process:

Diagram of the diffusion process adapted from Ho et al. 2020. The glyph 锂, meaning “lithium”, is used as a representative sample from the dataset.

I found that there was a lot to unpack in this diagram and simply understanding what each component meant was very helpful, so let’s go through it and define everything step by step.

We previously used x q(x) to refer to our data. Here, we’ve added a subscript, xₜ, to denote timestep t indicating how many steps of “noising” have taken place. We refer to the samples noised a given timestep as x q(xₜ). x₀​ is clean data and xₜ (t = T) ∼ 𝒩(0,1) is pure noise.

We define a forward diffusion process whereby we corrupt samples with noise. This process is described by the distribution q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁). If we could access the hypothetical reverse process q(xₜ₋₁|xₜ), we could generate samples from noise. As we cannot access it directly because we would need to know x₀​, we use ML to learn the parameters, θ, of a model of this process, 𝑝θ(𝑥ₜ₋₁∣𝑥ₜ). (That should be p subscript θ but medium cannot render it.)

In the following sections we go into detail on how the forward and reverse diffusion processes work.

Forward diffusion, or “noising”

Used as a verb, “noising” an image refers to applying a transformation that moves it towards pure noise by scaling down its pixel values toward 0 while adding proportional Gaussian noise. Mathematically, this transformation is a multivariate Gaussian distribution centered on the pixel values of the preceding image.

In the forward diffusion process, this noising distribution is written as q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁) where the vertical bar symbol “|” is read as “given” or “conditional on”, to indicate the pixel means are passed forward from q(xₜ₋₁) At t = T where T is a large number (commonly 1000) we aim to end up with images of pure noise (which, somewhat confusingly, is also a Gaussian distribution, as discussed previously).

The marginal distributions q(xₜ) represent the distributions that have accumulated the effects of all the previous noising steps (marginalization refers to integration over all possible conditions, which recovers the unconditioned distribution).

Since the conditional distributions are Gaussian, what about their variances? They are determined by a variance schedule that maps timesteps to variance values. Initially, an empirically determined schedule of linearly increasing values from 0.0001 to 0.02 over 1000 steps was presented in Ho et al. Later research by Nichol & Dhariwal suggested an improved cosine schedule. They state that a schedule is most effective when the rate of information destruction through noising is relatively even per step throughout the whole noising process.

Forward diffusion intuition

As we encounter Gaussian distributions both as pure noise q(xₜ, t = T) and as the noising distribution q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁), I’ll try to draw the distinction by giving a visual intuition of the distribution for a single noising step, q(x₁∣x₀), for some arbitrary, structured 2-dimensional data:

Each noising step q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁) is a Gaussian distribution conditioned on the previous step.

The distribution q(x₁∣x₀) is Gaussian, centered around each point in x₀, shown in blue. Several example points x₀⁽ⁱ⁾ are picked to illustrate this, with q(x₁∣x₀ = x₀⁽ⁱ⁾) shown in orange.

In practice, the main usage of these distributions is to generate specific instances of noised samples for training (discussed further below). We can calculate the parameters of the noising distributions at any timestep t directly from the variance schedule, as the chain of Gaussians is itself also Gaussian. This is very convenient, as we don’t need to perform noising sequentially—for any given starting data x₀⁽ⁱ⁾, we can calculate the noised sample xₜ⁽ⁱ⁾ by sampling from q(xₜ∣x₀ = x₀⁽ⁱ⁾) directly.

Forward diffusion visualization

Let’s now return to our glyph dataset (once again using the UMAP visualization as a visual shorthand). The top row of the figure below shows our dataset sampled from distributions noised to various timesteps: xₜ ∼ q(xₜ). As we increase the number of noising steps, you can see that the dataset begins to resemble pure Gaussian noise. The bottom row visualizes the underlying probability distribution q(xₜ).

The dataset xₜ (above) sampled from its probability distribution q(xₜ) (below) at different noising timesteps.

Reverse diffusion overview

It follows that if we knew the reverse distributions q(xₜ₋₁∣xₜ), we could repeatedly subtract a small amount of noise, starting from a pure noise sample xₜ at t = T to arrive at a data sample x₀ ∼ q(x₀). In practice, however, we cannot access these distributions without knowing x₀ beforehand. Intuitively, it’s easy to make a known image much noisier, but given a very noisy image, it’s much harder to guess what the original image was.

So what are we to do? Since we have a large amount of data, we can train an ML model to accurately guess the original image that any given noisy image came from. Specifically, we learn the parameters θ of an ML model that approximates the reverse noising distributions, (xₜ₋₁ ∣ xₜ) for t = 0, …, T. In practice, this is embodied in a single noise prediction model trained over many different samples and timesteps. This allows it to denoise any given input, as shown in the figure below.

The ML model predicts added noise at any given timestep t.

Next, let’s go over how this noise prediction model is implemented and trained in practice.

How the model is implemented

First, we define the ML model — generally a deep neural network of some sort — that will act as our noise prediction model. This is what does the heavy lifting! In practice, any ML model that inputs and outputs data of the correct size can be used; the U-net, an architecture particularly suited to learning images, is what we use here and frequently chosen in practice. More recent models also use vision transformers.

We use the U-net architecture (Ronneberger et al. 2015) for our ML noise prediction model. We train the model by minimizing the difference between predicted and actual noise.

Then we run the training loop depicted in the figure above:

  • We take a random image from our dataset and noise it to a random timestep tt. (In practice, we speed things up by doing many examples in parallel!)
  • We feed the noised image into the ML model and train it to predict the (known to us) noise in the image. We also perform timestep conditioning by feeding the model a timestep embedding, a high-dimensional unique representation of the timestep, so that the model can distinguish between timesteps. This can be a vector the same size as our image directly added to the input (see here for a discussion of how this is implemented).
  • The model “learns” by minimizing the value of a loss function, some measure of the difference between the predicted and actual noise. The mean square error (the mean of the squares of the pixel-wise difference between the predicted and actual noise) is used in our case.
  • Repeat until the model is well trained.

Note: A neural network is essentially a function with a huge number of parameters (on the order of 10for the glyffuser). Neural network ML models are trained by iteratively updating their parameters using backpropagation to minimize a given loss function over many training data examples. This is an excellent introduction. These parameters effectively store the network’s “knowledge”.

A noise prediction model trained in this way eventually sees many different combinations of timesteps and data examples. The glyffuser, for example, was trained over 100 epochs (runs through the whole data set), so it saw around 2 million data samples. Through this process, the model implicity learns the reverse diffusion distributions over the entire dataset at all different timesteps. This allows the model to sample the underlying distribution q(x₀) by stepwise denoising starting from pure noise. Put another way, given an image noised to any given level, the model can predict how to reduce the noise based on its guess of what the original image. By doing this repeatedly, updating its guess of the original image each time, the model can transform any noise to a sample that lies in a high-probability region of the underlying data distribution.

Reverse diffusion in practice

We can now revisit this video of the glyffuser denoising process. Recall a large number of steps from sample to noise e.g. T = 1000 is used during training to make the noise-to-sample trajectory very easy for the model to learn, as changes between steps will be small. Does that mean we need to run 1000 denoising steps every time we want to generate a sample?

Luckily, this is not the case. Essentially, we can run the single-step noise prediction but then rescale it to any given step, although it might not be very good if the gap is too large! This allows us to approximate the full sampling trajectory with fewer steps. The video above uses 120 steps, for instance (most implementations will allow the user to set the number of sampling steps).

Recall that predicting the noise at a given step is equivalent to predicting the original image x₀, and that we can access the equation for any noised image deterministically using only the variance schedule and x₀. Thus, we can calculate xₜ₋ₖ based on any denoising step. The closer the steps are, the better the approximation will be.

Too few steps, however, and the results become worse as the steps become too large for the model to effectively approximate the denoising trajectory. If we only use 5 sampling steps, for example, the sampled characters don’t look very convincing at all:

There is then a whole literature on more advanced sampling methods beyond what we’ve discussed so far, allowing effective sampling with much fewer steps. These often reframe the sampling as a differential equation to be solved deterministically, giving an eerie quality to the sampling videos — I’ve included one at the end if you’re interested. In production-level models, these are usually preferred over the simple method discussed here, but the basic principle of deducing the noise-to-sample trajectory is the same. A full discussion is beyond the scope of this article but see e.g. this paper and its corresponding implementation in the Hugging Face diffusers library for more information.

Alternative intuition from score function

To me, it was still not 100% clear why training the model on noise prediction generalises so well. I found that an alternative interpretation of diffusion models known as “score-based modeling” filled some of the gaps in intuition (for more information, refer to Yang Song’s definitive article on the topic.)

The dataset xₜ sampled from its probability distribution q(xₜ) at different noising timesteps; below, we add the score function ∇ₓ log q(xₜ).

I try to give a visual intuition in the bottom row of the figure above: essentially, learning the noise in our diffusion model is equivalent (to a constant factor) to learning the score function, which is the gradient of the log of the probability distribution: ∇ₓ log q(x). As a gradient, the score function represents a vector field with vectors pointing towards the regions of highest probability density. Subtracting the noise at each step is then equivalent to moving following the directions in this vector field towards regions of high probability density.

As long as there is some signal, the score function effectively guides sampling, but in regions of low probability it tends towards zero as there is little to no gradient to follow. Using many steps to cover different noise levels allows us to avoid this, as we smear out the gradient field at high noise levels, allowing sampling to converge even if we start from low probability density regions of the distribution. The figure shows that as the noise level is increased, more of the domain is covered by the score function vector field.

Summary

  • The aim of diffusion models is learn the underlying probability distribution of a dataset and then be able to sample from it. This requires forward and reverse diffusion (noising) processes.
  • The forward noising process takes samples from our dataset and gradually adds Gaussian noise (pushes them off the data manifold). This forward process is computationally efficient because any level of noise can be added in closed form a single step.
  • The reverse noising process is challenging because we need to predict how to remove the noise at each step without knowing the original data point in advance. We train a ML model to do this by giving it many examples of data noised at different timesteps.
  • Using very small steps in the forward noising process makes it easier for the model to learn to reverse these steps, as the changes are small.
  • By applying the reverse noising process iteratively, the model refines noisy samples step by step, eventually producing a realistic data point (one that lies on the data manifold).

Takeaway

Diffusion models are a powerful framework for learning complex data distributions. The distributions are learnt implicitly by modelling a sequential denoising process. This process can then be used to generate samples similar to those in the training distribution.

Once you’ve trained a model, how do you get useful stuff out of it?

Earlier uses of generative AI such as “This Person Does Not Exist” (ca. 2019) made waves simply because it was the first time most people had seen AI-generated photorealistic human faces. A generative adversarial network or “GAN” was used in that case, but the principle remains the same: the model implicitly learnt a underlying data distribution — in that case, human faces — then sampled from it. So far, our glyffuser model does a similar thing: it samples randomly from the distribution of Chinese glyphs.

The question then arises: can we do something more useful than just sample randomly? You’ve likely already encountered text-to-image models such as Dall-E. They are able to incorporate extra meaning from text prompts into the diffusion process — this in known as conditioning. Likewise, diffusion models for scientific scientific applications like protein (e.g. Chroma, RFdiffusion, AlphaFold3) or inorganic crystal structure generation (e.g. MatterGen) become much more useful if can be conditioned to generate samples with desirable properties such as a specific symmetry, bulk modulus, or band gap.

Conditional distributions

We can consider conditioning as a way to guide the diffusion sampling process towards particular regions of our probability distribution. We mentioned conditional distributions in the context of forward diffusion. Below we show how conditioning can be thought of as reshaping a base distribution.

A simple example of a joint probability distribution p(x, y), shown as a contour map, along with its two marginal 1-D probability distributions, p(x) and p(y). The highest points of p(x, y) are at (x₁, y₁) and (x₂, y₂). The conditional distributions p(xy = y₁) and p(xy = y₂) are shown overlaid on the main plot.

Consider the figure above. Think of p(x) as a distribution we want to sample from (i.e., the images) and p(y) as conditioning information (i.e., the text dataset). These are the marginal distributions of a joint distribution p(x, y). Integrating p(x, y) over y recovers p(x), and vice versa.

Sampling from p(x), we are equally likely to get x₁ or x₂. However, we can condition on p(y = y₁) to obtain p(xy = y₁). You can think of this as taking a slice through p(x, y) at a given value of y. In this conditioned distribution, we are much more likely to sample at x₁ than x₂.

In practice, in order to condition on a text dataset, we need to convert the text into a numerical form. We can do this using large language model (LLM) embeddings that can be injected into the noise prediction model during training.

Embedding text with an LLM

In the glyffuser, our conditioning information is in the form of English text definitions. We have two requirements: 1) ML models prefer fixed-length vectors as input. 2) The numerical representation of our text must understand context — if we have the words “lithium” and “element” nearby, the meaning of “element” should be understood as “chemical element” rather than “heating element”. Both of these requirements can be met by using a pre-trained LLM.

The diagram below shows how an LLM converts text into fixed-length vectors. The text is first tokenized (LLMs break text into tokens, small chunks of characters, as their basic unit of interaction). Each token is converted into a base embedding, which is a fixed-length vector of the size of the LLM input. These vectors are then passed through the pre-trained LLM (here we use the encoder portion of Google’s T5 model), where they are imbued with additional contextual meaning. We end up with a array of n vectors of the same length d, i.e. a (n, d) sized tensor.

We can convert text to a numerical embedding imbued with contextual meaning using a pre-trained LLM.

Note: in some models, notably Dall-E, additional image-text alignment is performed using contrastive pretraining. Imagen seems to show that we can get away without doing this.

Training the diffusion model with text conditioning

The exact method that this embedding vector is injected into the model can vary. In Google’s Imagen model, for example, the embedding tensor is pooled (combined into a single vector in the embedding dimension) and added into the data as it passes through the noise prediction model; it is also included in a different way using cross-attention (a method of learning contextual information between sequences of tokens, most famously used in the transformer models that form the basis of LLMs like ChatGPT).

Conditioning information can be added via multiple different methods but the training loss remains the same.

In the glyffuser, we only use cross-attention to introduce this conditioning information. While a significant architectural change is required to introduce this additional information into the model, the loss function for our noise prediction model remains exactly the same.

Testing the conditioned diffusion model

Let’s do a simple test of the fully trained conditioned diffusion model. In the figure below, we try to denoise in a single step with the text prompt “Gold”. As touched upon in our interactive UMAP, Chinese characters often contain components known as radicals which can convey sound (phonetic radicals) or meaning (semantic radicals). A common semantic radical is derived from the character meaning “gold”, “金”, and is used in characters that are in some broad sense associated with gold or metals.

Even with a single sampling step, conditioning guides denoising towards the relevant regions of the probability distribution.

The figure shows that even though a single step is insufficient to approximate the denoising trajectory very well, we have moved into a region of our probability distribution with the “金” radical. This indicates that the text prompt is effectively guiding our sampling towards a region of the glyph probability distribution related to the meaning of the prompt. The animation below shows a 120 step denoising sequence for the same prompt, “Gold”. You can see that every generated glyph has either the 釒 or 钅 radical (the same radical in traditional and simplified Chinese, respectively).

Takeaway

Conditioning enables us to sample meaningful outputs from diffusion models.

Further remarks

I found that with the help of tutorials and existing libraries, it was possible to implement a working diffusion model despite not having a full understanding of what was going on under the hood. I think this is a good way to start learning and highly recommend Hugging Face’s tutorial on training a simple diffusion model using their diffusers Python library (which now includes my small bugfix!).

I’ve omitted some topics that are crucial to how production-grade diffusion models function, but are unnecessary for core understanding. One is the question of how to generate high resolution images. In our example, we did everything in pixel space, but this becomes very computationally expensive for large images. The general approach is to perform diffusion in a smaller space, then upscale it in a separate step. Methods include latent diffusion (used in Stable Diffusion) and cascaded super-resolution models (used in Imagen). Another topic is classifier-free guidance, a very elegant method for boosting the conditioning effect to give much better prompt adherence. I show the implementation in my previous post on the glyffuser and highly recommend this article if you want to learn more.

Further reading

A non-exhaustive list of materials I found very helpful:

Fun extras

Diffusion sampling using the DPMSolverSDEScheduler developed by Katherine Crowson and implemented in Hugging Face diffusers—note the smooth transition from noise to data.

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China leads global oil stockpiles in 2025

China, the United States, and Japan held the world’s largest strategic oil inventories as of December 2025, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a recent note.  The EIA examined significant global buildup in strategic oil inventories as of December 2025, prior to the International Energy Agency (IEA)-coordinated emergency release in March 2026 triggered by the Strait of Hormuz disruption. These reserves—first established by OECD countries in the 1970s—continue to serve as a critical buffer against supply shocks. China holds the largest volume of oil inventories globally. EIA estimates about 360 million bbl in government-held stocks and roughly 1 billion bbl in commercial inventories, bringing its total to nearly 1.4 billion bbl. The agency said China added about 1.1 million b/d to inventories in 2025, reflecting an aggressive stockpiling strategy. The US follows, with about 413 million bbl in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as of December 2025, alongside more than 400 million bbl in commercial crude stocks, EIA said. Japan ranks third, holding 263 million bbl in government reserves, with an additional 220 million bbl required under Japan’s Oil Stockpiling Act. OECD Europe held about 179 million bbl, and South Korea maintained roughly 79 million bbl.  Among non-OECD countries, estimates are less transparent, EIA noted. Saudi Arabia held about 82 million bbl, Iran 71 million bbl, and the UAE 34 million bbl in on-land inventories, while India’s SPR totaled 21.4 million bbl, with plans to expand storage capacity domestically and abroad. Global estimates remain conservative due to limited transparency and varying definitions of “strategic” inventories, EIA said. In most countries, only government or national oil company holdings are counted, though China is a key exception where commercial inventories are included due to state-directed stockpiling. EIA plans to update its assessment periodically in its Short-Term Energy Outlook beginning this May.

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Peace signals temper crude rally, Europe jet fuel tightness intensifies

Tentative diplomatic signals offer limited relief to markets still dominated by supply disruption concerns surrounding the Iran war. At the time of writing, Brent crude futures hovered around $105–106/bbl after earlier trading above $107/bbl, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) held near $95–97/bbl. Prices softened modestly following reports of renewed diplomatic engagement. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi is expected to visit Pakistan for talks. Separately, Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their ceasefire by 3 weeks after meetings with US officials in Washington. Stay updated on oil price volatility, shipping disruptions, LNG market analysis, and production output at OGJ’s Iran war content hub. Despite these developments, market participants remain cautious, with analysts warning that any easing in risk premiums may prove temporary. Ongoing tensions linked to the US-Iran conflict continue to disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil trade. In remarks at CNBC’s Converge Live conference, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), described the situation as an unprecedented energy security challenge, noting that the strait is operating under what he termed a “double blockade,” severely constraining tanker movements. The impact is being felt acutely in refined product markets, particularly in Europe’s aviation sector. With Middle Eastern exports curtailed, European refiners have shifted output toward jet fuel production, though with limited flexibility. According to Frans Everts of Shell plc, refineries across the region are operating in “max jet mode,” with only marginal capacity to increase yields further. Inventory data underscore the tightening balance. Jet fuel and kerosene stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub fell to 597,000 metric tons, the lowest level since April 2020, declining 10% year-on-year. In response, Europe has increasingly relied on imports from the US Gulf Coast to offset lost Middle Eastern supply. According to IEA, global oil supply

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Shell to expand Canadian operations with $16.4-billion acquisition of ARC Resources

Shell plc has agreed to acquire ARC Resources Ltd. in a transaction valued at about $16.4 billion, including $13.6 billion in equity and roughly $2.8 billion in assumed net debt and leases. The acquisition is expected to strengthen Shell’s integrated gas portfolio and expand its position in Canada through the addition of long-life Montney resources in British Columbia and Alberta, the companies said Apr. 27. “ARC is a high-quality, low-cost, and top-quartile low carbon intensity producer in the Montney that complements our existing footprint in Canada and strengthens our resource base for decades,” said Wael Sawan, Shell chief executive officer. “This establishes Canada as a heartland for Shell while furthering our strategy to deliver more value with less emissions.” ARC produced 374,000 boe/d in 2025 (before royalties). Its assets overlap with Shell’s existing Groundbirch position in British Columbia and the Gold Creek development in Alberta. Groundbirch supplies gas to the 14-million tonnes/year LNG Canada liquefaction plant (Shell, 40%), as well as to the domestic market.

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Brent holds above $100/bbl; US shale response remains restrained

Global crude markets remained firmly supported Apr. 27 as the ongoing Iran conflict and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz reinforced a persistent geopolitical risk premium, offsetting intermittent diplomatic signals. Brent crude traded in the upper-$100/bbl range, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) held in the high-$90s/bbl, reflecting tight physical supply conditions and uncertainty surrounding Middle East export flows. Stay updated on oil price volatility, shipping disruptions, LNG market analysis, and production output at OGJ’s Iran war content hub. While diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran have produced occasional signs of progress—including reported proposals to reopen the strait—negotiations remain fragile. The situation has evolved into a prolonged stalemate, with neither a full escalation nor a clear resolution in sight. Current market structure reflects a geopolitically driven pricing regime, with volatility concentrated in near-term crude futures while longer-dated contracts remain relatively anchored. The impact of Iran-related supply disruptions is being priced primarily into prompt contracts, whereas deferred benchmarks—such as 2027 WTI—have moved more modestly, holding in the low-$70/bbl range. This divergence suggests that traders view the current supply shock as severe but not necessarily permanent, with expectations of eventual normalization. However, according to the latest Dallas Fed survey, 86% of US oil and gas executives view another future Hormuz disruption within the next 5 years as somewhat or very likely, while 40% do not expect normalization of Hormuz traffic by August. A further 35% believe less than 90% of shut-in Gulf production will eventually return. These figures suggest the industry is calibrating its medium-term strategy around a world of elevated and recurring geopolitical risk. US shale response remains restrained According to an analysis from Macquire, despite favorable pricing, the US upstream response is expected to be measured. With average breakeven levels near $43/bbl WTI, current prices offer highly attractive margins

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AI data flows force rethink of data center networking at Backblaze

According to a report that Backblaze released this morning, traffic from content delivery networks and hosting and Internet services providers have stayed largely within historical norms over the past year. But traffic from hyperscalers and neoclouds fluctuated dramatically, with steep climbs in September and October and another uptick in March. Another network traffic change related to AI is geography. “Traditionally, it didn’t matter where cloud infrastructure was located,” says Nowak. But with AI workloads, if storage is close to compute, enterprises get lower latency and higher throughput. Today, Virginia and California have a high concentration of AI compute providers. This, in turn, brings in more storage companies. “In July, we chose to double our footprint in US East to increase the proximity to hyperscalers and neoclouds,” says Nowak. And that, in turn, leads to even more demand for compute, and even greater concentration. “There’s a snowball effect,” Nowak says. Why neoclouds for AI? Enterprises might think that they don’t need to worry about network traffic details if they’re using a hyperscaler for their AI workloads because the data and the processing both stay within the cloud. But there are advantages to using a third-party storage provider combined with neoclouds for the GPUs. According to a report released by Synergy Research Group in early April, neocloud revenues hit $9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 223% year-over-year increase. Revenues passed $25 billion for the whole year and are expected to hit $400 billion by 2031.

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TD Cowen: AI Adoption Is Already Here. Infrastructure Demand Is What Comes Next.

Enterprise AI adoption is no longer emerging. It is already embedded and beginning to scale in ways that will reshape data center demand. The latest TD Cowen GenAI Adoption Survey makes that clear. Across 689 U.S. enterprises, 92% are now using at least one major AI platform, with Microsoft Copilot, Google Gemini, and ChatGPT forming the core triad of daily enterprise tooling. That’s the baseline. The more important story is what comes next. AI is moving quickly from assistive software to autonomous systems, and that shift carries direct implications for compute demand, power consumption, and infrastructure design. From Copilots to Autonomous Systems Today’s enterprise AI footprint is already broad, but it is still largely human-in-the-loop. That is beginning to change. Roughly a third of respondents say they already have semi-autonomous AI agents running in production, while another large cohort is piloting or planning deployments over the next 12 to 18 months. By 2027, more than three-quarters expect to be running AI agents capable of executing multi-step workflows without human intervention. This is not incremental adoption. It is a step-function shift. Autonomous agents don’t just respond to prompts; they execute tasks, interact with enterprise systems, and continuously access data. For data centers, that translates into more persistent, baseline load: exactly the kind of demand profile that stresses power delivery, increases utilization, and accelerates capacity planning timelines. To wit: AI is moving from a bursty workload to a continuous one. ROI Is No Longer the Question At the same time, the debate around AI return on investment is effectively over. Three-quarters of respondents report positive ROI, while only a small minority report negative outcomes. A meaningful share is already seeing multiples of return on their investments. The implication seems straightforward: AI budgets are becoming durable. This is no longer experimental spend that

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BYOP Moves to the Center of Data Center Strategy

Self-Sufficiency Becomes a Feature, Not a Risk Consider Wyoming’s Project Jade, where county commissioners approved an AI campus tied to 2.7 GW of new natural gas-fired generation being developed by Tallgrass Energy. Reporting from POWER described the project as a “bring your own power” model designed for a high degree of self-sufficiency, with a mix of natural gas generation and Bloom fuel cells. The campus is expected to scale significantly over time. What stands out is not only the size, but the positioning. Self-sufficiency is becoming a selling point both for developers seeking to de-risk timelines, and for local stakeholders wary of overloading existing utility infrastructure. Fuel Cells and Nuclear: The Middle Ground and the Long Game Fuel cells occupy an important middle ground in this shift. Bloom Energy’s 2026 report positions fuel cells as a leading onsite option due to shorter lead times, modular deployment, and lower local emissions. Market activity suggests that interest is real. For developers, fuel cells can be easier to permit than large turbine installations and can be deployed incrementally. That makes them effective as bridge-to-grid solutions or as permanent components of hybrid architectures. Advanced nuclear remains the most strategically significant, but least immediate, BYOP pathway. Companies including Switch and other data center operators have explored partnerships with Oklo around its Aurora small modular reactor design. Nuclear holds long-term appeal because it offers firm, low-carbon power at scale. But for current AI buildouts, it remains a future option rather than a near-term construction solution. The immediate reality is that gas and modular onsite systems are closing the time-to-power gap, while nuclear is being positioned as a longer-duration successor as licensing and deployment timelines evolve. The model itself is also evolving. BYOP is beginning to blur the line between developer, energy provider, and compute customer. Reuters

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Microsoft Builds for Two Worlds: Sovereign Cloud and AI Factories

So far in 2026, across the United States and overseas, Microsoft is building an infrastructure portfolio at full hyperscale. The strategy runs on two tracks. The first is familiar: sovereign cloud expansion involving new regions, local data residency, and compliance-driven enterprise infrastructure. The second is larger and more consequential: purpose-built AI factory campuses designed for dense GPU clusters, liquid cooling, private fiber, and power acquisition at a scale that extends far beyond traditional cloud infrastructure. Despite reports last year that Microsoft was pulling back on data center development, the company is accelerating. It is not only advancing its own large-scale campuses, but also absorbing premium AI capacity originally aligned with OpenAI. In Texas and Norway, projects tied to OpenAI’s infrastructure plans have shifted back into Microsoft’s orbit. Even after contractual changes gave OpenAI greater flexibility to source compute elsewhere, Microsoft remains the market’s most reliable backstop buyer for top-tier AI infrastructure. It no longer needs to control every OpenAI build to maintain its position. In 2026, Microsoft is still the company best positioned to turn uncertain AI demand into deployed capacity, e.g. concrete, steel, power, and silicon at scale. Building at Industrial Scale The clearest indicator of Microsoft’s intent is its capital spending. In its January 2026 earnings cycle, Reuters reported that Microsoft’s quarterly capital expenditures reached a record $37.5 billion, up nearly 66% year over year. The company’s cloud backlog rose to $625 billion, with roughly 45% of remaining performance obligations tied to OpenAI. About two-thirds of that quarterly capex was directed toward compute chips. To be clear: this is no speculative buildout. Microsoft is deploying capital against a massive, committed demand pipeline, even as it maintains significant exposure to OpenAI-driven workloads. The company is solving two infrastructure problems at once: supporting broad Azure and Copilot growth, while ensuring

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AI’s Execution Era: Aligned and Netrality on Power, Speed, and the New Data Center Reality

At Data Center World 2026, the industry didn’t need convincing that something fundamental has shifted. “This feels different,” said Bill Kleyman as he opened a keynote fireside with Phill Lawson-Shanks and Amber Caramella. “In the past 24 months, we’ve seen more evolution… than in the two decades before.” What followed was less a forecast than a field report from the front lines of the AI infrastructure buildout—where demand is immediate, power is decisive, and execution is everything. A Different Kind of Growth Cycle For Caramella, the shift starts with scale—and speed. “What feels fundamentally different is just the sheer pace and breadth of the demand combined with a real shift in architecture,” she said. Vacancy rates have collapsed even as capacity expands. AI workloads are not just additive—they are redefining absorption curves across the market. But the deeper change is behavioral. “Over 75% of people are using AI in their day-to-day business… and now the conversation is shifting to agentic AI,” Caramella noted. That shift—from tools to delegated workflows—points to a second wave of infrastructure demand that has not yet fully materialized. Lawson-Shanks framed the transformation in more structural terms. The industry, he said, has always followed a predictable chain: workload → software → hardware → facility → location. That chain has broken. “We had a very predictable industry… prior to Covid. And Covid changed everything,” he said, describing how hyperscale demand compressed deployment cycles overnight. What followed was a surge that utilities—and supply chains—were not prepared to meet. From Capacity to Constraint: Power Becomes Strategy If AI has a gating factor, it is no longer compute. It is power. “Before it used to be an operational convenience,” Caramella said. “Now it’s a strategic advantage—or constraint if you don’t have it.” That shift is reshaping executive decision-making. Power is no

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The Trillion-Dollar AIDC Boom Gets Real: Omdia Maps the Path From Megaclusters to Microgrids

The AI data center buildout is getting bigger, denser, and more electrically complex than even many bullish observers expected. That was the core message from Omdia’s Data Center World analyst summit, where Senior Director Vlad Galabov and Practice Lead Shen Wang laid out a view of the market that has grown more expansive in just the past year. What had been a large-scale infrastructure story is now, in Omdia’s telling, something closer to a full-stack industrial transition: hyperscalers are still leading, but enterprises, second-tier cloud providers, and new AI use cases are beginning to add demand on top of demand. Omdia’s updated forecast reflects that shift. Galabov said the firm has now raised its 2030 projection for data center investment beyond the $1.6 trillion figure it showed a year ago, arguing that surging AI usage, expanding buyer classes, and the emergence of new power infrastructure categories have all forced a rethink. “One of the reasons why we raised it is that people keep using more AI,” Galabov said. “And that just means more money, because we need to buy more GPUs to run the AI.” That is the simple version. The more consequential one is that AI is no longer behaving like a contained technology cycle. It is spilling outward into adjacent infrastructure markets, including batteries, gas-fired onsite generation, and high-voltage DC power architectures that until recently sat well outside the mainstream data center conversation. A Market Moving Faster Than the Forecasts Galabov opened by revisiting the predictions Omdia made last year for 2030. On several fronts, he said, the market is already validating them faster than expected. AI applications are becoming commonplace. AI has become the dominant driver of data center investment. Self-generation is no longer a fringe strategy. Even some of the rack-scale architecture concepts that once looked

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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