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A Visual Guide to How Diffusion Models Work

This article is aimed at those who want to understand exactly how Diffusion Models work, with no prior knowledge expected. I’ve tried to use illustrations wherever possible to provide visual intuitions on each part of these models. I’ve kept mathematical notation and equations to a minimum, and where they are necessary I’ve tried to define […]

This article is aimed at those who want to understand exactly how Diffusion Models work, with no prior knowledge expected. I’ve tried to use illustrations wherever possible to provide visual intuitions on each part of these models. I’ve kept mathematical notation and equations to a minimum, and where they are necessary I’ve tried to define and explain them as they occur.

Intro

I’ve framed this article around three main questions:

  • What exactly is it that diffusion models learn?
  • How and why do diffusion models work?
  • Once you’ve trained a model, how do you get useful stuff out of it?

The examples will be based on the glyffuser, a minimal text-to-image diffusion model that I previously implemented and wrote about. The architecture of this model is a standard text-to-image denoising diffusion model without any bells or whistles. It was trained to generate pictures of new “Chinese” glyphs from English definitions. Have a look at the picture below — even if you’re not familiar with Chinese writing, I hope you’ll agree that the generated glyphs look pretty similar to the real ones!

Random examples of glyffuser training data (left) and generated data (right).

What exactly is it that diffusion models learn?

Generative Ai models are often said to take a big pile of data and “learn” it. For text-to-image diffusion models, the data takes the form of pairs of images and descriptive text. But what exactly is it that we want the model to learn? First, let’s forget about the text for a moment and concentrate on what we are trying to generate: the images.

Probability distributions

Broadly, we can say that we want a generative AI model to learn the underlying probability distribution of the data. What does this mean? Consider the one-dimensional normal (Gaussian) distribution below, commonly written 𝒩(μ,σ²) and parameterized with mean μ = 0 and variance σ² = 1. The black curve below shows the probability density function. We can sample from it: drawing values such that over a large number of samples, the set of values reflects the underlying distribution. These days, we can simply write something like x = random.gauss(0, 1) in Python to sample from the standard normal distribution, although the computational sampling process itself is non-trivial!

Values sampled from an underlying distribution (here, the standard normal 𝒩(0,1)) can then be used to estimate the parameters of that distribution.

We could think of a set of numbers sampled from the above normal distribution as a simple dataset, like that shown as the orange histogram above. In this particular case, we can calculate the parameters of the underlying distribution using maximum likelihood estimation, i.e. by working out the mean and variance. The normal distribution estimated from the samples is shown by the dotted line above. To take some liberties with terminology, you might consider this as a simple example of “learning” an underlying probability distribution. We can also say that here we explicitly learnt the distribution, in contrast with the implicit methods that diffusion models use.

Conceptually, this is all that generative AI is doing — learning a distribution, then sampling from that distribution!

Data representations

What, then, does the underlying probability distribution of a more complex dataset look like, such as that of the image dataset we want to use to train our diffusion model?

First, we need to know what the representation of the data is. Generally, a machine learning (ML) model requires data inputs with a consistent representation, i.e. format. For the example above, it was simply numbers (scalars). For images, this representation is commonly a fixed-length vector.

The image dataset used for the glyffuser model is ~21,000 pictures of Chinese glyphs. The images are all the same size, 128 × 128 = 16384 pixels, and greyscale (single-channel color). Thus an obvious choice for the representation is a vector x of length 16384, where each element corresponds to the color of one pixel: x = (x,x₂,…,x₁₆₃₈₄). We can call the domain of all possible images for our dataset “pixel space”.

An example glyph with pixel values labelled (downsampled to 32 × 32 pixels for readability).

Dataset visualization

We make the assumption that our individual data samples, x, are actually sampled from an underlying probability distribution, q(x), in pixel space, much as the samples from our first example were sampled from an underlying normal distribution in 1-dimensional space. Note: the notation x q(x) is commonly used to mean: “the random variable x sampled from the probability distribution q(x).”

This distribution is clearly much more complex than a Gaussian and cannot be easily parameterized — we need to learn it with a ML model, which we’ll discuss later. First, let’s try to visualize the distribution to gain a better intution.

As humans find it difficult to see in more than 3 dimensions, we need to reduce the dimensionality of our data. A small digression on why this works: the manifold hypothesis posits that natural datasets lie on lower dimensional manifolds embedded in a higher dimensional space — think of a line embedded in a 2-D plane, or a plane embedded in 3-D space. We can use a dimensionality reduction technique such as UMAP to project our dataset from 16384 to 2 dimensions. The 2-D projection retains a lot of structure, consistent with the idea that our data lie on a lower dimensional manifold embedded in pixel space. In our UMAP, we see two large clusters corresponding to characters in which the components are arranged either horizontally (e.g. 明) or vertically (e.g. 草). An interactive version of the plot below with popups on each datapoint is linked here.

 Click here for an interactive version of this plot.

Let’s now use this low-dimensional UMAP dataset as a visual shorthand for our high-dimensional dataset. Remember, we assume that these individual points have been sampled from a continuous underlying probability distribution q(x). To get a sense of what this distribution might look like, we can apply a KDE (kernel density estimation) over the UMAP dataset. (Note: this is just an approximation for visualization purposes.)

This gives a sense of what q(x) should look like: clusters of glyphs correspond to high-probability regions of the distribution. The true q(x) lies in 16384 dimensions — this is the distribution we want to learn with our diffusion model.

We showed that for a simple distribution such as the 1-D Gaussian, we could calculate the parameters (mean and variance) from our data. However, for complex distributions such as images, we need to call on ML methods. Moreover, what we will find is that for diffusion models in practice, rather than parameterizing the distribution directly, they learn it implicitly through the process of learning how to transform noise into data over many steps.

Takeaway

The aim of generative AI such as diffusion models is to learn the complex probability distributions underlying their training data and then sample from these distributions.

How and why do diffusion models work?

Diffusion models have recently come into the spotlight as a particularly effective method for learning these probability distributions. They generate convincing images by starting from pure noise and gradually refining it. To whet your interest, have a look at the animation below that shows the denoising process generating 16 samples.

In this section we’ll only talk about the mechanics of how these models work but if you’re interested in how they arose from the broader context of generative models, have a look at the further reading section below.

What is “noise”?

Let’s first precisely define noise, since the term is thrown around a lot in the context of diffusion. In particular, we are talking about Gaussian noise: consider the samples we talked about in the section about probability distributions. You could think of each sample as an image of a single pixel of noise. An image that is “pure Gaussian noise”, then, is one in which each pixel value is sampled from an independent standard Gaussian distribution, 𝒩(0,1). For a pure noise image in the domain of our glyph dataset, this would be noise drawn from 16384 separate Gaussian distributions. You can see this in the previous animation. One thing to keep in mind is that we can choose the means of these noise distributions, i.e. center them, on specific values — the pixel values of an image, for instance.

For convenience, you’ll often find the noise distributions for image datasets written as a single multivariate distribution 𝒩(0,I) where I is the identity matrix, a covariance matrix with all diagonal entries equal to 1 and zeroes elsewhere. This is simply a compact notation for a set of multiple independent Gaussians — i.e. there are no correlations between the noise on different pixels. In the basic implementations of diffusion models, only uncorrelated (a.k.a. “isotropic”) noise is used. This article contains an excellent interactive introduction on multivariate Gaussians.

Diffusion process overview

Below is an adaptation of the somewhat-famous diagram from Ho et al.’s seminal paper “Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models” which gives an overview of the whole diffusion process:

Diagram of the diffusion process adapted from Ho et al. 2020. The glyph 锂, meaning “lithium”, is used as a representative sample from the dataset.

I found that there was a lot to unpack in this diagram and simply understanding what each component meant was very helpful, so let’s go through it and define everything step by step.

We previously used x q(x) to refer to our data. Here, we’ve added a subscript, xₜ, to denote timestep t indicating how many steps of “noising” have taken place. We refer to the samples noised a given timestep as x q(xₜ). x₀​ is clean data and xₜ (t = T) ∼ 𝒩(0,1) is pure noise.

We define a forward diffusion process whereby we corrupt samples with noise. This process is described by the distribution q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁). If we could access the hypothetical reverse process q(xₜ₋₁|xₜ), we could generate samples from noise. As we cannot access it directly because we would need to know x₀​, we use ML to learn the parameters, θ, of a model of this process, 𝑝θ(𝑥ₜ₋₁∣𝑥ₜ). (That should be p subscript θ but medium cannot render it.)

In the following sections we go into detail on how the forward and reverse diffusion processes work.

Forward diffusion, or “noising”

Used as a verb, “noising” an image refers to applying a transformation that moves it towards pure noise by scaling down its pixel values toward 0 while adding proportional Gaussian noise. Mathematically, this transformation is a multivariate Gaussian distribution centered on the pixel values of the preceding image.

In the forward diffusion process, this noising distribution is written as q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁) where the vertical bar symbol “|” is read as “given” or “conditional on”, to indicate the pixel means are passed forward from q(xₜ₋₁) At t = T where T is a large number (commonly 1000) we aim to end up with images of pure noise (which, somewhat confusingly, is also a Gaussian distribution, as discussed previously).

The marginal distributions q(xₜ) represent the distributions that have accumulated the effects of all the previous noising steps (marginalization refers to integration over all possible conditions, which recovers the unconditioned distribution).

Since the conditional distributions are Gaussian, what about their variances? They are determined by a variance schedule that maps timesteps to variance values. Initially, an empirically determined schedule of linearly increasing values from 0.0001 to 0.02 over 1000 steps was presented in Ho et al. Later research by Nichol & Dhariwal suggested an improved cosine schedule. They state that a schedule is most effective when the rate of information destruction through noising is relatively even per step throughout the whole noising process.

Forward diffusion intuition

As we encounter Gaussian distributions both as pure noise q(xₜ, t = T) and as the noising distribution q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁), I’ll try to draw the distinction by giving a visual intuition of the distribution for a single noising step, q(x₁∣x₀), for some arbitrary, structured 2-dimensional data:

Each noising step q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁) is a Gaussian distribution conditioned on the previous step.

The distribution q(x₁∣x₀) is Gaussian, centered around each point in x₀, shown in blue. Several example points x₀⁽ⁱ⁾ are picked to illustrate this, with q(x₁∣x₀ = x₀⁽ⁱ⁾) shown in orange.

In practice, the main usage of these distributions is to generate specific instances of noised samples for training (discussed further below). We can calculate the parameters of the noising distributions at any timestep t directly from the variance schedule, as the chain of Gaussians is itself also Gaussian. This is very convenient, as we don’t need to perform noising sequentially—for any given starting data x₀⁽ⁱ⁾, we can calculate the noised sample xₜ⁽ⁱ⁾ by sampling from q(xₜ∣x₀ = x₀⁽ⁱ⁾) directly.

Forward diffusion visualization

Let’s now return to our glyph dataset (once again using the UMAP visualization as a visual shorthand). The top row of the figure below shows our dataset sampled from distributions noised to various timesteps: xₜ ∼ q(xₜ). As we increase the number of noising steps, you can see that the dataset begins to resemble pure Gaussian noise. The bottom row visualizes the underlying probability distribution q(xₜ).

The dataset xₜ (above) sampled from its probability distribution q(xₜ) (below) at different noising timesteps.

Reverse diffusion overview

It follows that if we knew the reverse distributions q(xₜ₋₁∣xₜ), we could repeatedly subtract a small amount of noise, starting from a pure noise sample xₜ at t = T to arrive at a data sample x₀ ∼ q(x₀). In practice, however, we cannot access these distributions without knowing x₀ beforehand. Intuitively, it’s easy to make a known image much noisier, but given a very noisy image, it’s much harder to guess what the original image was.

So what are we to do? Since we have a large amount of data, we can train an ML model to accurately guess the original image that any given noisy image came from. Specifically, we learn the parameters θ of an ML model that approximates the reverse noising distributions, (xₜ₋₁ ∣ xₜ) for t = 0, …, T. In practice, this is embodied in a single noise prediction model trained over many different samples and timesteps. This allows it to denoise any given input, as shown in the figure below.

The ML model predicts added noise at any given timestep t.

Next, let’s go over how this noise prediction model is implemented and trained in practice.

How the model is implemented

First, we define the ML model — generally a deep neural network of some sort — that will act as our noise prediction model. This is what does the heavy lifting! In practice, any ML model that inputs and outputs data of the correct size can be used; the U-net, an architecture particularly suited to learning images, is what we use here and frequently chosen in practice. More recent models also use vision transformers.

We use the U-net architecture (Ronneberger et al. 2015) for our ML noise prediction model. We train the model by minimizing the difference between predicted and actual noise.

Then we run the training loop depicted in the figure above:

  • We take a random image from our dataset and noise it to a random timestep tt. (In practice, we speed things up by doing many examples in parallel!)
  • We feed the noised image into the ML model and train it to predict the (known to us) noise in the image. We also perform timestep conditioning by feeding the model a timestep embedding, a high-dimensional unique representation of the timestep, so that the model can distinguish between timesteps. This can be a vector the same size as our image directly added to the input (see here for a discussion of how this is implemented).
  • The model “learns” by minimizing the value of a loss function, some measure of the difference between the predicted and actual noise. The mean square error (the mean of the squares of the pixel-wise difference between the predicted and actual noise) is used in our case.
  • Repeat until the model is well trained.

Note: A neural network is essentially a function with a huge number of parameters (on the order of 10for the glyffuser). Neural network ML models are trained by iteratively updating their parameters using backpropagation to minimize a given loss function over many training data examples. This is an excellent introduction. These parameters effectively store the network’s “knowledge”.

A noise prediction model trained in this way eventually sees many different combinations of timesteps and data examples. The glyffuser, for example, was trained over 100 epochs (runs through the whole data set), so it saw around 2 million data samples. Through this process, the model implicity learns the reverse diffusion distributions over the entire dataset at all different timesteps. This allows the model to sample the underlying distribution q(x₀) by stepwise denoising starting from pure noise. Put another way, given an image noised to any given level, the model can predict how to reduce the noise based on its guess of what the original image. By doing this repeatedly, updating its guess of the original image each time, the model can transform any noise to a sample that lies in a high-probability region of the underlying data distribution.

Reverse diffusion in practice

We can now revisit this video of the glyffuser denoising process. Recall a large number of steps from sample to noise e.g. T = 1000 is used during training to make the noise-to-sample trajectory very easy for the model to learn, as changes between steps will be small. Does that mean we need to run 1000 denoising steps every time we want to generate a sample?

Luckily, this is not the case. Essentially, we can run the single-step noise prediction but then rescale it to any given step, although it might not be very good if the gap is too large! This allows us to approximate the full sampling trajectory with fewer steps. The video above uses 120 steps, for instance (most implementations will allow the user to set the number of sampling steps).

Recall that predicting the noise at a given step is equivalent to predicting the original image x₀, and that we can access the equation for any noised image deterministically using only the variance schedule and x₀. Thus, we can calculate xₜ₋ₖ based on any denoising step. The closer the steps are, the better the approximation will be.

Too few steps, however, and the results become worse as the steps become too large for the model to effectively approximate the denoising trajectory. If we only use 5 sampling steps, for example, the sampled characters don’t look very convincing at all:

There is then a whole literature on more advanced sampling methods beyond what we’ve discussed so far, allowing effective sampling with much fewer steps. These often reframe the sampling as a differential equation to be solved deterministically, giving an eerie quality to the sampling videos — I’ve included one at the end if you’re interested. In production-level models, these are usually preferred over the simple method discussed here, but the basic principle of deducing the noise-to-sample trajectory is the same. A full discussion is beyond the scope of this article but see e.g. this paper and its corresponding implementation in the Hugging Face diffusers library for more information.

Alternative intuition from score function

To me, it was still not 100% clear why training the model on noise prediction generalises so well. I found that an alternative interpretation of diffusion models known as “score-based modeling” filled some of the gaps in intuition (for more information, refer to Yang Song’s definitive article on the topic.)

The dataset xₜ sampled from its probability distribution q(xₜ) at different noising timesteps; below, we add the score function ∇ₓ log q(xₜ).

I try to give a visual intuition in the bottom row of the figure above: essentially, learning the noise in our diffusion model is equivalent (to a constant factor) to learning the score function, which is the gradient of the log of the probability distribution: ∇ₓ log q(x). As a gradient, the score function represents a vector field with vectors pointing towards the regions of highest probability density. Subtracting the noise at each step is then equivalent to moving following the directions in this vector field towards regions of high probability density.

As long as there is some signal, the score function effectively guides sampling, but in regions of low probability it tends towards zero as there is little to no gradient to follow. Using many steps to cover different noise levels allows us to avoid this, as we smear out the gradient field at high noise levels, allowing sampling to converge even if we start from low probability density regions of the distribution. The figure shows that as the noise level is increased, more of the domain is covered by the score function vector field.

Summary

  • The aim of diffusion models is learn the underlying probability distribution of a dataset and then be able to sample from it. This requires forward and reverse diffusion (noising) processes.
  • The forward noising process takes samples from our dataset and gradually adds Gaussian noise (pushes them off the data manifold). This forward process is computationally efficient because any level of noise can be added in closed form a single step.
  • The reverse noising process is challenging because we need to predict how to remove the noise at each step without knowing the original data point in advance. We train a ML model to do this by giving it many examples of data noised at different timesteps.
  • Using very small steps in the forward noising process makes it easier for the model to learn to reverse these steps, as the changes are small.
  • By applying the reverse noising process iteratively, the model refines noisy samples step by step, eventually producing a realistic data point (one that lies on the data manifold).

Takeaway

Diffusion models are a powerful framework for learning complex data distributions. The distributions are learnt implicitly by modelling a sequential denoising process. This process can then be used to generate samples similar to those in the training distribution.

Once you’ve trained a model, how do you get useful stuff out of it?

Earlier uses of generative AI such as “This Person Does Not Exist” (ca. 2019) made waves simply because it was the first time most people had seen AI-generated photorealistic human faces. A generative adversarial network or “GAN” was used in that case, but the principle remains the same: the model implicitly learnt a underlying data distribution — in that case, human faces — then sampled from it. So far, our glyffuser model does a similar thing: it samples randomly from the distribution of Chinese glyphs.

The question then arises: can we do something more useful than just sample randomly? You’ve likely already encountered text-to-image models such as Dall-E. They are able to incorporate extra meaning from text prompts into the diffusion process — this in known as conditioning. Likewise, diffusion models for scientific scientific applications like protein (e.g. Chroma, RFdiffusion, AlphaFold3) or inorganic crystal structure generation (e.g. MatterGen) become much more useful if can be conditioned to generate samples with desirable properties such as a specific symmetry, bulk modulus, or band gap.

Conditional distributions

We can consider conditioning as a way to guide the diffusion sampling process towards particular regions of our probability distribution. We mentioned conditional distributions in the context of forward diffusion. Below we show how conditioning can be thought of as reshaping a base distribution.

A simple example of a joint probability distribution p(x, y), shown as a contour map, along with its two marginal 1-D probability distributions, p(x) and p(y). The highest points of p(x, y) are at (x₁, y₁) and (x₂, y₂). The conditional distributions p(xy = y₁) and p(xy = y₂) are shown overlaid on the main plot.

Consider the figure above. Think of p(x) as a distribution we want to sample from (i.e., the images) and p(y) as conditioning information (i.e., the text dataset). These are the marginal distributions of a joint distribution p(x, y). Integrating p(x, y) over y recovers p(x), and vice versa.

Sampling from p(x), we are equally likely to get x₁ or x₂. However, we can condition on p(y = y₁) to obtain p(xy = y₁). You can think of this as taking a slice through p(x, y) at a given value of y. In this conditioned distribution, we are much more likely to sample at x₁ than x₂.

In practice, in order to condition on a text dataset, we need to convert the text into a numerical form. We can do this using large language model (LLM) embeddings that can be injected into the noise prediction model during training.

Embedding text with an LLM

In the glyffuser, our conditioning information is in the form of English text definitions. We have two requirements: 1) ML models prefer fixed-length vectors as input. 2) The numerical representation of our text must understand context — if we have the words “lithium” and “element” nearby, the meaning of “element” should be understood as “chemical element” rather than “heating element”. Both of these requirements can be met by using a pre-trained LLM.

The diagram below shows how an LLM converts text into fixed-length vectors. The text is first tokenized (LLMs break text into tokens, small chunks of characters, as their basic unit of interaction). Each token is converted into a base embedding, which is a fixed-length vector of the size of the LLM input. These vectors are then passed through the pre-trained LLM (here we use the encoder portion of Google’s T5 model), where they are imbued with additional contextual meaning. We end up with a array of n vectors of the same length d, i.e. a (n, d) sized tensor.

We can convert text to a numerical embedding imbued with contextual meaning using a pre-trained LLM.

Note: in some models, notably Dall-E, additional image-text alignment is performed using contrastive pretraining. Imagen seems to show that we can get away without doing this.

Training the diffusion model with text conditioning

The exact method that this embedding vector is injected into the model can vary. In Google’s Imagen model, for example, the embedding tensor is pooled (combined into a single vector in the embedding dimension) and added into the data as it passes through the noise prediction model; it is also included in a different way using cross-attention (a method of learning contextual information between sequences of tokens, most famously used in the transformer models that form the basis of LLMs like ChatGPT).

Conditioning information can be added via multiple different methods but the training loss remains the same.

In the glyffuser, we only use cross-attention to introduce this conditioning information. While a significant architectural change is required to introduce this additional information into the model, the loss function for our noise prediction model remains exactly the same.

Testing the conditioned diffusion model

Let’s do a simple test of the fully trained conditioned diffusion model. In the figure below, we try to denoise in a single step with the text prompt “Gold”. As touched upon in our interactive UMAP, Chinese characters often contain components known as radicals which can convey sound (phonetic radicals) or meaning (semantic radicals). A common semantic radical is derived from the character meaning “gold”, “金”, and is used in characters that are in some broad sense associated with gold or metals.

Even with a single sampling step, conditioning guides denoising towards the relevant regions of the probability distribution.

The figure shows that even though a single step is insufficient to approximate the denoising trajectory very well, we have moved into a region of our probability distribution with the “金” radical. This indicates that the text prompt is effectively guiding our sampling towards a region of the glyph probability distribution related to the meaning of the prompt. The animation below shows a 120 step denoising sequence for the same prompt, “Gold”. You can see that every generated glyph has either the 釒 or 钅 radical (the same radical in traditional and simplified Chinese, respectively).

Takeaway

Conditioning enables us to sample meaningful outputs from diffusion models.

Further remarks

I found that with the help of tutorials and existing libraries, it was possible to implement a working diffusion model despite not having a full understanding of what was going on under the hood. I think this is a good way to start learning and highly recommend Hugging Face’s tutorial on training a simple diffusion model using their diffusers Python library (which now includes my small bugfix!).

I’ve omitted some topics that are crucial to how production-grade diffusion models function, but are unnecessary for core understanding. One is the question of how to generate high resolution images. In our example, we did everything in pixel space, but this becomes very computationally expensive for large images. The general approach is to perform diffusion in a smaller space, then upscale it in a separate step. Methods include latent diffusion (used in Stable Diffusion) and cascaded super-resolution models (used in Imagen). Another topic is classifier-free guidance, a very elegant method for boosting the conditioning effect to give much better prompt adherence. I show the implementation in my previous post on the glyffuser and highly recommend this article if you want to learn more.

Further reading

A non-exhaustive list of materials I found very helpful:

Fun extras

Diffusion sampling using the DPMSolverSDEScheduler developed by Katherine Crowson and implemented in Hugging Face diffusers—note the smooth transition from noise to data.

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The cost of transporting liquefied natural gas across the Atlantic Ocean surged to the highest in almost two years, as expanding exports from North America boosted demand for tankers. The spot rate to hire an LNG vessel for delivery from the US to Europe jumped 19 percent to $98,250 per day on Monday, the highest since January 2024, according to Spark Commodities, which tracks shipping prices. Costs to hire a tanker in the Pacific Ocean also jumped 15 percent to the highest in over a year, the data show. This is a stark turnaround for the market, which had languished at rock-bottom prices for most of the year amid a glut of available ships. Output from North America has increased steadily as new projects ramp up, requiring more vessels to deliver the fuel to customers in Europe and Asia. The 30-day moving average for LNG exports from North America has climbed nearly 40 percent year-to-date, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.  Higher freight rates threaten to widen the spread between Asian and European gas prices, as it will be more expensive to send US shipments to the Pacific. A company booked a vessel for December in the Atlantic for about $100,000 per day, traders said. Likewise, when freight rates were lower, companies sent some vessels to Asia, further exacerbating a shortage of ships in the Atlantic, they added. Still, the surge in charter rates is likely to have peaked and has “limited potential to run much higher,” according to Han Wei, a BloombergNEF analyst. “On the LNG tanker supply side, we’ll continue to see strong new build deliveries, which should keep spot charter rates in check,” he said. What do you think? We’d love to hear from you, join the conversation on the Rigzone Energy Network. The Rigzone Energy Network is a new social

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Meeting America’s generation challenge: Why smarter permitting matters

Scott Corwin is president and CEO of the American Public Power Association. The United States faces a complex power challenge. The rise of data centers, the return of American manufacturing and the push to electrify vehicles and homes are all driving new demands on the nation’s electrical grid. Public power utilities, which are community-owned and not-for-profit providers, are prepared to meet these needs, serving nearly 55 million Americans in more than 2,000 communities across 49 states and several territories. However, these utilities are often slowed by an outdated, unpredictable federal permitting system. This is particularly challenging for new generation projects, as regulatory barriers and red tape can prolong timelines by years and raise costs by millions. In the end, these costs are borne by communities and leave families and businesses more vulnerable to supply disruptions or delayed improvements in reliability. Permitting reform is not about diminishing environmental protections. Instead, it is about removing unnecessary and duplicative regulatory hurdles that slow the construction of new generation resources and other needed energy infrastructure. The American Public Power Association supports pragmatic legislative efforts that streamline the permitting and siting process, provide clearer federal guidance, and produce timelier decisions. Reform must maintain strong environmental oversight but deliver outcomes that allow vital energy projects to proceed without unnecessary delay. When the permitting process is lengthy or unpredictable, the difficulty and expense of building new infrastructure grows. Customers are directly affected; they may see higher energy bills or even miss economic development opportunities because the process takes too long. Projects that meet environmental standards should move through federal review with clear milestones and prompt decisions. Federal policy must also ensure reviews are coordinated, not conducted in succession, so agencies work together with established schedules. Regulatory guidance should be consistent, even as administrations change, to enable local

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Insights: What’s next for Permian basin electrification?

@import url(‘https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:[email protected]&display=swap’); a { color: var(–color-primary-main); } .ebm-page__main h1, .ebm-page__main h2, .ebm-page__main h3, .ebm-page__main h4, .ebm-page__main h5, .ebm-page__main h6 { font-family: Inter; } body { line-height: 150%; letter-spacing: 0.025em; font-family: Inter; } button, .ebm-button-wrapper { font-family: Inter; } .label-style { text-transform: uppercase; color: var(–color-grey); font-weight: 600; font-size: 0.75rem; } .caption-style { font-size: 0.75rem; opacity: .6; } #onetrust-pc-sdk [id*=btn-handler], #onetrust-pc-sdk [class*=btn-handler] { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-policy a, #onetrust-pc-sdk a, #ot-pc-content a { color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-sdk .ot-active-menu { border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-accept-btn-handler, #onetrust-banner-sdk #onetrust-reject-all-handler, #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-btn-handler.cookie-setting-link { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk .onetrust-pc-btn-handler { color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } This Insights episode of the Oil & Gas Journal ReEnterprised podcast examines the rapidly growing power demands in the Permian basin region and the implications for operators, utilities, and adjacent industries. OGJ Editor-in-Chief Chris Smith interviews Will Kernan, Power Solutions Strategy Manager for Caterpillar Oil & Gas, on why electricity demand has surged by multiple gigawatts since 2021 and why traditional reliance on the grid is no longer sufficient to ensure timely project development and stable operations. Kernan outlines how accelerating electricity demand from both oil and gas operations and new industrial entrants—particularly data centers—has strained transmission capacity, driving greater interest in on-site natural-gas-fired generation and microgrid models. The episode closes with a look at major grid-expansion proposals under consideration in Texas, their long lead-times, and how distributed generation, waste-gas utilization, and field-scale microgrids will shape a more flexible and resilient power ecosystem for the Permian in the years ahead. Highlights  1:50 – Permian electricity demand surgingUp ~4 Gw since 2021 to 7.5 Gw total—driven by upstream electrification, compression, midstream growth, and residential/commercial load. 3:13 – Grid is no longer the “easy button.” Utility interconnection timelines of 3–5+ years can’t

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Venture Global CEO: CP2 capacity could grow to 30 million tpy

The CP2 LNG plant Venture Global Inc. is building out in Cameron Parish, La., will be able to supply 30 million tonnes/year (tpy) versus its currently permitted capacity of 28 million tpy, Mike Sabel, the company’s chief executive officer and executive co-chairman said Nov. 10. Speaking after Virginia-based Venture Global reported its third-quarter results as well as the signing of a 1-million tpy supply agreement with Spain’s Naturgy, Sabel said teams have been applying learnings from the company’s Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines plants. That includes from tens of thousands data points those plants are generating every minute. “We have a dedicated team of data scientists and process engineers and AI programmers that have been incorporating that data into our current operations, but also into design changes as we’ve learned some very surprising interactions of different parts of the facilities […] that we expect will carry over into CP2,” Sabel said. “We’ll have to go back and get the export authorization moved from 28 up to 30 but we think CP2 will be doing even better than Plaquemines, which is doing the best that any project has ever done.” As of Oct. 31, eight of the 26 planned liquefaction trains at CP2—which is forecast to cost a total of $29 billion—had been completed. Sabel said more than 3,500 construction workers are active at the site, which spans 700 acres. The Venture Global team this summer took final investment decision on the project and during the third quarter won final authorization from the US Department of Energy to export LNG to non-free trade agreement nations. During the 3 months that ended Sept. 30, Venture Global exported 100 LNG cargos, up from 89 in the spring and 31 in third-quarter 2024. That translated into net income of $429 million on more than $3.3 billion in

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Nvidia’s first exascale system is the 4th fastest supercomputer in the world

The world’s fourth exascale supercomputer has arrived, pitting Nvidia’s proprietary chip technologies against the x86 systems that have dominated supercomputing for decades. For the 66th edition of the TOP500, El Capitan holds steady at No. 1 while JUPITER Booster becomes the fourth exascale system on the list. The JUPITER Booster supercomputer, installed in Germany, uses Nvidia CPUs and GPUs and delivers a peak performance of exactly 1 exaflop, according to the November TOP500 list of supercomputers, released on Monday. The exaflop measurement is considered a major milestone in pushing computing performance to the limits. Today’s computers are typically measured in gigaflops and teraflops—and an exaflop translates to 1 billion gigaflops. Nvidia’s GPUs dominate AI servers installed in data centers as computing shifts to AI. As part of this shift, AI servers with Nvidia’s ARM-based Grace CPUs are emerging as a high-performance alternative to x86 chips. JUPITER is the fourth-fastest supercomputer in the world, behind three systems with x86 chips from AMD and Intel, according to TOP500. The top three supercomputers on the TOP500 list are in the U.S. and owned by the U.S. Department of Energy. The top two supercomputers—the 1.8-exaflop El Capitan at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the 1.35-exaflop Frontier at Oak Ridge National Laboratory—use AMD CPUs and GPUs. The third-ranked 1.01-exaflop Aurora at Argonne National Laboratory uses Intel CPUs and GPUs. Intel scrapped its GPU roadmap after the release of Aurora and is now restructuring operations. The JUPITER Booster, which was assembled by France-based Eviden, has Nvidia’s GH200 superchip, which links two Nvidia Hopper GPUs with CPUs based on ARM designs. The CPU and GPU are connected via Nvidia’s proprietary NVLink interconnect, which is based on InfiniBand and provides bandwidth of up to 900 gigabytes per second. JUPITER first entered the Top500 list at 793 petaflops, but

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Samsung’s 60% memory price hike signals higher data center costs for enterprises

Industry-wide price surge driven by AI Samsung is not alone in raising prices. In October, TrendForce reported that Samsung and SK Hynix raised DRAM and NAND flash prices by up to 30% for Q4. Similarly, SK Hynix said during its October earnings call that its HBM, DRAM, and NAND capacity is “essentially sold out” for 2026, with the company posting record quarterly operating profit exceeding $8 billion, driven by surging AI demand. Industry analysts attributed the price increases to manufacturers redirecting production capacity. HBM production for AI accelerators consumes three times the wafer capacity of standard DRAM, according to a TrendForce report, citing remarks from Micron’s Chief Business Officer. After two years of oversupply, memory inventories have dropped to approximately eight weeks from over 30 weeks in early 2023. “The memory industry is tightening faster than expected as AI server demand for HBM, DDR5, and enterprise SSDs far outpaces supply growth,” said Manish Rawat, semiconductor analyst at TechInsights. “Even with new fab capacity coming online, much of it is dedicated to HBM, leaving conventional DRAM and NAND undersupplied. Memory is shifting from a cyclical commodity to a strategic bottleneck where suppliers can confidently enforce price discipline.” This newfound pricing power was evident in Samsung’s approach to contract negotiations. “Samsung’s delayed pricing announcement signals tough behind-the-scenes negotiations, with Samsung ultimately securing the aggressive hike it wanted,” Rawat said. “The move reflects a clear power shift toward chipmakers: inventories are normalized, supply is tight, and AI demand is unavoidable, leaving buyers with little room to negotiate.” Charlie Dai, VP and principal analyst at Forrester, said the 60% increase “signals confidence in sustained AI infrastructure growth and underscores memory’s strategic role as the bottleneck in accelerated computing.” Servers to cost 10-25% more For enterprises building AI infrastructure, these supply dynamics translate directly into

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Arista, Palo Alto bolster AI data center security

“Based on this inspection, the NGFW creates a comprehensive, application-aware security policy. It then instructs the Arista fabric to enforce that policy at wire speed for all subsequent, similar flows,” Kotamraju wrote. “This ‘inspect-once, enforce-many’ model delivers granular zero trust security without the performance bottlenecks of hairpinning all traffic through a firewall or forcing a costly, disruptive network redesign.” The second capability is a dynamic quarantine feature that enables the Palo Alto NGFWs to identify evasive threats using Cloud-Delivered Security Services (CDSS). “These services, such as Advanced WildFire for zero-day malware and Advanced Threat Prevention for unknown exploits, leverage global threat intelligence to detect and block attacks that traditional security misses,” Kotamraju wrote. The Arista fabric can intelligently offload trusted, high-bandwidth “elephant flows” from the firewall after inspection, freeing it to focus on high-risk traffic. When a threat is detected, the NGFW signals Arista CloudVision, which programs the network switches to automatically quarantine the compromised workload at hardware line-rate, according to Kotamraju: “This immediate response halts the lateral spread of a threat without creating a performance bottleneck or requiring manual intervention.” The third feature is unified policy orchestration, where Palo Alto Networks’ management plane centralizes zone-based and microperimeter policies, and CloudVision MSS responds with the offload and enforcement of Arista switches. “This treats the entire geo-distributed network as a single logical switch, allowing workloads to be migrated freely across cloud networks and security domains,” Srikanta and Barbieri wrote. Lastly, the Arista Validated Design (AVD) data models enable network-as-a-code, integrating with CI/CD pipelines. AVDs can also be generated by Arista’s AVA (Autonomous Virtual Assist) AI agents that incorporate best practices, testing, guardrails, and generated configurations. “Our integration directly resolves this conflict by creating a clean architectural separation that decouples the network fabric from security policy. This allows the NetOps team (managing the Arista

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AMD outlines ambitious plan for AI-driven data centers

“There are very beefy workloads that you must have that performance for to run the enterprise,” he said. “The Fortune 500 mainstream enterprise customers are now … adopting Epyc faster than anyone. We’ve seen a 3x adoption this year. And what that does is drives back to the on-prem enterprise adoption, so that the hybrid multi-cloud is end-to-end on Epyc.” One of the key focus areas for AMD’s Epyc strategy has been our ecosystem build out. It has almost 180 platforms, from racks to blades to towers to edge devices, and 3,000 solutions in the market on top of those platforms. One of the areas where AMD pushes into the enterprise is what it calls industry or vertical workloads. “These are the workloads that drive the end business. So in semiconductors, that’s telco, it’s the network, and the goal there is to accelerate those workloads and either driving more throughput or drive faster time to market or faster time to results. And we almost double our competition in terms of faster time to results,” said McNamara. And it’s paying off. McNamara noted that over 60% of the Fortune 100 are using AMD, and that’s growing quarterly. “We track that very, very closely,” he said. The other question is are they getting new customer acquisitions, customers with Epyc for the first time? “We’ve doubled that year on year.” AMD didn’t just brag, it laid out a road map for the next two years, and 2026 is going to be a very busy year. That will be the year that new CPUs, both client and server, built on the Zen 6 architecture begin to appear. On the server side, that means the Venice generation of Epyc server processors. Zen 6 processors will be built on 2 nanometer design generated by (you guessed

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Building the Regional Edge: DartPoints CEO Scott Willis on High-Density AI Workloads in Non-Tier-One Markets

When DartPoints CEO Scott Willis took the stage on “the Distributed Edge” panel at the 2025 Data Center Frontier Trends Summit, his message resonated across a room full of developers, operators, and hyperscale strategists: the future of AI infrastructure will be built far beyond the nation’s tier-one metros. On the latest episode of the Data Center Frontier Show, Willis expands on that thesis, mapping out how DartPoints has positioned itself for a moment when digital infrastructure inevitably becomes more distributed, and why that moment has now arrived. DartPoints’ strategy centers on what Willis calls the “regional edge”—markets in the Midwest, Southeast, and South Central regions that sit outside traditional cloud hubs but are increasingly essential to the evolving AI economy. These are not tower-edge micro-nodes, nor hyperscale mega-campuses. Instead, they are regional data centers designed to serve enterprises with colocation, cloud, hybrid cloud, multi-tenant cloud, DRaaS, and backup workloads, while increasingly accommodating the AI-driven use cases shaping the next phase of digital infrastructure. As inference expands and latency-sensitive applications proliferate, Willis sees the industry’s momentum bending toward the very markets DartPoints has spent years cultivating. Interconnection as Foundation for Regional AI Growth A key part of the company’s differentiation is its interconnection strategy. Every DartPoints facility is built to operate as a deeply interconnected environment, drawing in all available carriers within a market and stitching sites together through a regional fiber fabric. Willis describes fiber as the “nervous system” of the modern data center, and for DartPoints that means creating an interconnection model robust enough to support a mix of enterprise cloud, multi-site disaster recovery, and emerging AI inference workloads. The company is already hosting latency-sensitive deployments in select facilities—particularly inference AI and specialized healthcare applications—and Willis expects such deployments to expand significantly as regional AI architectures become more widely

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Key takeaways from Cisco Partner Summit

Brian Ortbals, senior vice president from World Wide Technology, which is one of Cisco’s biggest and most important partners stated: “Cisco engaged partners early in the process and took our feedback along the way. We believe now is the right time for these changes as it will enable us to capitalize on the changes in the market.” The reality is, the more successful its more-than-half-a-million partners are, the more successful Cisco will be. Platform approach is coming together When Jeetu Patel took the reigns as chief product officer, one of his goals was to make the Cisco portfolio a “force multiple.” Patel has stated repeatedly that, historically, Cisco acted more as a technology holding company with good products in networking, security, collaboration, data center and other areas. In this case, product breadth was not an advantage, as everything must be sold as “best of breed,” which is a tough ask of the salesforce and partner community. Since then, there have been many examples of the coming together of the portfolio to create products that leverage the breadth of the platform. The latest is the Unified Edge appliance, an all-in-one solution that brings together compute, networking, storage and security. Cisco has been aggressive with AI products in the data center, and Cisco Unified Edge compliments that work with a device designed to bring AI to edge locations. This is ideally suited for retail, manufacturing, healthcare, factories and other industries where it’s more cost effecting and performative to run AI where the data lives.

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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