Macquarie Strategists See ‘Healthy US Crude Build’ in Next EIA Report

Stay Ahead, Stay ONMINE

Macquarie Strategists See ‘Healthy US Crude Build’ in Next EIA Report

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late last week, Macquarie strategists outlined that they “anticipate another healthy U.S. crude build” in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) next weekly petroleum status report. That report is scheduled to be released on February 20 and will include data for the […]

That report is scheduled to be released on February 20 and will include data for the week ending February 14.

“Looking ahead to next week’s release, we anticipate another healthy U.S. crude build (+5.4 million barrels), with runs and net imports effectively flat, nominal implied supply bouncing back (+0.3 million barrels per day), and a larger increase in SPR inventory (+1.2 million barrels) on the week,” the Macquarie strategists said in the oil and gas report.

“We note potential for volatility in these figures given the incomplete nature of this week’s data. Among products, our preliminary expectations point to builds in gasoline (+1.0 million barrels) and jet (+1.6 million barrels), with distillate stocks lower (-1.9 million barrels),” they added.

The Macquarie strategists highlighted in the report that, last week, the EIA “reported builds in commercial crude (+4.1 million barrels) and at Cushing (+0.9 million barrels), with mixed product stats (gasoline -3.0 million barrels, distillate +0.1 million barrels, jet +0.9 million barrels)”.

“All told, the release was bullish relative to our expectations, with tighter crude and aggregate product balances than we had anticipated,” they added in the report.

“Within the crude balance, runs realized modestly above our expectation this week (+0.2 million barrels per day). Net imports were slightly above our expectation (+0.1 million barrels per day), with nominal implied dom. supply (prod.+adj.+trans.) light of our expectation at 13.6 million barrels per day (we modeled ~14.0 million barrels per day),” they continued.

In the report, the Macquarie strategists stated that, “among products, implied demand was slightly below” their expectation last week, “with gasoline+distillate+jet at 13.8 million barrels per day (vs. ~13.9 million barrels per day est.), with the trailing four week average at 14.1 million barrels per day vs. 13.5 million barrels per day for the same four weeks last year”.

“Likewise, total disappearance (impl. demand + exports) for those three products was also slightly below our expectation at 16.0 million barrels per day (vs. ~16.1 million barrels per day est.), with the trailing four week average at 16.3 million barrels per day vs. 15.6 million barrels per day for the same four weeks last year,” they said.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 4.1 million barrels from the week ending January 31 to the week ending February 7, the EIA highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on February 12 and included data for the week ending February 7.

This EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 427.9 million barrels on February 7, 423.8 million barrels on January 31, and 439.5 million barrels on February 9, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 395.3 million barrels on February 7, 395.1 million barrels on January 31, and 358.8 million barrels on February 9, 2024, the report highlighted.

Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.607 billion barrels on February 7, the report showed. This figure was up 1.5 million barrels week on week and up 16.2 million barrels year on year, the report outlined.

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on February 10, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 7.2 million barrels for the week ending February 7.

“This compares to our early look for the week which anticipated an 8.0 million barrel build, and an 8.7 million barrel build realized for the week ending January 31,” the strategists stated in that report.

To contact the author, email [email protected]

Stay Ahead

Explore More Insights

Stay ahead with more perspectives on cutting-edge power, infrastructure, energy, bitcoin and AI solutions. Explore these articles to uncover strategies and insights shaping the future of industries.

Altera targets low-latency AI edge applications with new FPGA products

Support for Agilex 3 and other Agilex product lines is available through Altera’s free Quartus software suite. Quartus is a design software suite for programmable logic devices. It allows engineers to design, analyze, optimize, and program Intel FPGAs, CPLDs, and SoCs using system-level design techniques and advanced place-and-route algorithms. For

Observe links end-user experience with back-end troubleshooting

Frontend Observability uses a capability called Browser Real User Monitoring (RUM) to enable IT and developer teams to quickly identify and diagnose performance issues across browsers, devices, and locations. For instance, RUM identifies anomalies in page load times, core web vitals, and JavaScript or HTTP errors. RUM also provides developers

ServiceNow to pay $2.85B for Moveworks’ AI tools

ServiceNow and Moveworks will deliver a unified, end‑to‑end search and self‑service experience for all employee requestors across every workflow, according to ServiceNow. A majority of Moveworks’ current customer deployments already use ServiceNow in their environments to access enterprise AI, data, and workflows. ServiceNow said this acquisition will build upon the

IBM wins UK lawsuit against LzLabs for mainframe intellectual property theft

IBM licensed its mainframe software to Winsopia beginning in 2013, according to the court documents. “IBM’s primary case is that the defendants breached, or procured breach of, the ICA [IBM customer agreement], using Winsopia’s access to the IBM mainframe software to develop the SDM by unlawful reverse engineering of the

Oil Prices Rebound as Market Metrics Signal Oversold Conditions

Oil edged up as internal market metrics flashed signs that recent declines were overdone, overshadowing the prospect of a temporary truce in Ukraine. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.3% to top $66 a barrel, recovering from the lowest closing price in six months. Ukraine said it’s ready to accept a US proposal for a 30-day truce in Russia’s war, raising expectations that Moscow’s crude may again flow freely in the near future. Oil held its ground Tuesday even as fresh trade salvos from US President Donald Trump threatened to prolong a plunge in risk assets. Despite the weakening economic outlook weighing on futures prices in recent weeks, WTI’s prompt spread — a key indicator of near-term supply and demand balances — has held steady in a bullish, backwardated structure. That’s a sign that the growth scare for crude isn’t as severe as for other assets, said Jon Byrne, an analyst at Strategas Securities. “Crude could be on the cusp of decoupling from other risk assets during this selloff,” Byrne said. Also supporting crude prices, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Monday that the Trump administration was prepared to enforce US sanctions on Iranian oil production, before clawing back gains. Oil has fallen almost a fifth from a high in mid-January as Trump’s chaotic rollout of tariff hikes and push to slash federal spending darken the economic outlook in the biggest producer and consumer of crude. Other bearish factors include OPEC+ plans to add supply and weakening demand in China. At a major industry conference in Houston, executives from some of the world’s top oil and gas producers — including Chevron Corp., Shell Plc and Saudi Aramco — offered full-throated support for President Trump’s energy-dominance agenda at the gathering. “Given how light positioning is, it doesn’t take much to

The World Has Reached ‘Peak Oil Trade’, Carlyle’s Jeff Currie Says

The trade in fossil fuels across borders peaked in 2017 and is set to decline as nations seeking energy security accelerate investments in renewable and nuclear power, Carlyle Group Inc.’s Jeff Currie wrote in a research note Monday. Conversations about peak oil supply and demand have for decades served as a backdrop to energy markets, and the transition from fossil fuels to renewables is top of mind this week as industry leaders descend on the so-called energy capital of the world, Houston, for the annual CERAWeek by S&P Global conference. Currie doesn’t expect fossil fuels to disappear anytime soon, but he said the world is seeing “Peak Oil Trade.” Fossil fuels are convenient, but their transport is increasingly vulnerable — President Donald Trump’s trade wars being one recent example — and that will push countries to reduce oil and gas imports and invest in renewable sources of energy where possible, Currie said. “The share of global energy consumption that came from fossil fuels that crossed borders peaked in 2017, and has since declined by 5%,” Currie wrote in the research piece outlining what he calls the “New Joule Order,” where security of energy supply is the paramount concern as demand continues to grow. Looming large over global trade security is the US, who through technology advancements in oil extraction during the shale revolution became a net oil exporter and less reliant on foreign supply. “The world’s protector of global trade no longer has an incentive to protect global trade,” Currie told Bloomberg in an interview Saturday. While the oil and gas trade isn’t going away, fossil fuel imports are easier to block than wind and solar sources, Currie writes in the research note. As countries shift to more localized sources of energy, the subsequent reduction in trade will lead to slower oil

Metamorphosis: Value shifts in the UK’s emergent clean power system

In a fully decarbonised power system most electricity generation will be variable. Wind and solar generation expand, while gas-fired generation – and the associated import bill – diminish. Both the proportion of variable to dispatchable generation and the reserve margin required for secure system operation will increase markedly. On the one hand, there needs to be enough capacity and/or flexibility to meet peak demand when variable generation is low. On the other, this excess reserve margin will generate a lot of surplus power when the opposite conditions prevail – variable generation is high and demand weak. Even on an average day, electricity system operation will become more complex. Baseload generation versus flexibility As renewable generation capacity expands, the amount of baseload generation provided across the system increases. The wider the geographical distribution of energy sources, and the more offshore wind involved, the better, owing to its higher capacity factor than either onshore wind or solar. It is rare in the UK for there to be no wind anywhere. Just as a more diversified generation mix increases energy security, a diverse mix of renewables increases baseload generation as different variable generation profiles overlap each other. The large dependence on solar and wind alone in the UK’s energy transition is a weakness. When variable generation is low and demand high, the system will have to rely on a combination of more flexible assets: imports; dispatchable generation sources, which by 2030, will be limited to biomass and possibly some gas-fired generation with carbon capture and storage; electricity storage; and demand-side management – the ability to reduce demand rather than increase supply. For short-term variations in supply and demand, battery storage will provide much of the flexibility required. The UK has about 5 GW of battery capacity in operation and another 5 GW under

DOE will prioritize fossil fuels, but it still expects strong growth from storage, solar, Wright says

U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Monday that the Trump administration will focus on increasing domestic fossil fuel production, and he dismissed the Biden administration’s policy of focusing on renewable energy – though he said solar, storage and electric vehicles have their place in the Trump administration’s energy policy approach. In a keynote address at S&P Global’s CERAWeek, Wright – the former CEO of Liberty Energy – singled out natural gas as particularly versatile and beneficial, in his view, saying, “there is simply no physical way that wind, solar and batteries could replace the myriad uses of natural gas.” The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Tuesday, forecasts that wind, solar, hydropower and nuclear will continue to make up around 45% of the U.S. generation mix in 2025 and into 2026, with natural gas showing a slight decline from 42% in 2024 to 40% of the mix in 2025 and 2026. “Increased generation from renewable energy is the main contributor to growth in U.S. electricity generation over the STEO forecast,” the EIA said. “The latest data received from power plant developers indicates that the electric power sector is planning to add 32 gigawatts (GW) of solar generating capacity in 2025 compared with an increase of 30 GW of solar in 2024.” EIA anticipates this new capacity will lead to a 33% increase in solar generation this year and a 19% increase in 2026, while an “expected 35 GW increase in battery storage capacity over the next two years [will allow] solar generators to supply electricity for more hours of the day.” While EIA expects other generation sources to remain steady in the mix or decline slightly, the agency forecasts that solar will increase its share from 5% in 2024 to 8% in 2026. In his keynote, Wright also said the

USA NatGas Posts Fifth Gain in Six Sessions

In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone on Tuesday by the EBW Analytics Group team, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, highlighted that U.S. natural gas posted its fifth gain in six sessions on Monday. “The April natural gas contract pulled back 41.0¢ from Sunday evening’s spike but still closed 9.2¢ higher yesterday for a fifth gain in six trading sessions,” Rubin said in the report. “Technically, however, yesterday’s shooting star pattern may be indicative of a deeper retest of support,” Rubin warned. “A rapidly warming March forecast suggests that the injection season may already be getting underway in coming days, with net injections throughout the back half of March suggesting a net injection for the month for only the second time,” Rubin added in the report. “LNG feedgas demand and gas production readings are lower this morning, although LNG may face a more structural seasonal decline over the next 30-45 days,” Rubin continued. The EBW Analytics Group analyst went on to state in the report that, “even as fundamentals tilt increasingly bearish … bullish momentum is sustaining further price gains”. “Natural gas prices remain at the base of the price-inelastic portion of the demand curve. As highlighted Sunday evening, rapid and substantial price increases cannot be ruled out,” Rubin added. When Rigzone asked Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group, why the U.S. natural gas price was rising on Monday in an exclusive interview yesterday, Flynn told Rigzone that natural gas “exploded in an epic short squeeze as traders started to get concerned not only about the fact that inventories are a lot lower than anybody thought they would be at this time of year, but for the forecast of a hotter than normal summer, coupled with threats from Canada over

Ontario imposes 25% tariff on power exports to US

Ontario on Monday imposed a 25% surcharge — or about $7/MWh after converting to U.S. dollars — on power exports to the United States that the province expects will average roughly $208,000 to $278,000 a day. Ontario could increase its “tariff response charge” or stop electricity exports to the U.S., depending on the Trump administration’s actions, according to the province. Ontario’s move to institute fees on its U.S. exports is in retaliation to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Canada, according to Ontario Premier Doug Ford. “President Trump’s tariffs are a disaster for the U.S. economy. They’re making life more expensive for American families and businesses,” Ford said in a press release. “Until the threat of tariffs is gone for good, Ontario won’t back down.” Ontario generators sold about 12 million MWh to the U.S. in 2023 across the three electric interconnections between the province and the U.S., according to a letter sent Monday to Ontario’s grid operator from Ontario Minister of Energy and Electrification Stephen Lecce. Under Ontario’s plan, U.S. entities importing power from the province will pay the cost of the exported electricity, including the 25% surcharge, to the electricity market participant that exported the electricity. The Independent Electricity System Operator of Ontario will collect the surcharge from the market participant. President Trump on March 4 imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, plus a 10% fee on energy imports. Two days later he delayed the tariff on some imports, but kept the tariffs on energy imports. However, the energy tariff applies to crude oil, natural gas and other products, according to a March 6 Federal Register notice, which doesn’t mention electricity. The tariffs on energy imports will drive up utility costs, disrupt markets and create uncertainty, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, D, and Senate Minority

Podcast: On the Frontier of Modular Edge AI Data Centers with Flexnode’s Andrew Lindsey

The modular data center industry is undergoing a seismic shift in the age of AI, and few are as deeply embedded in this transformation as Andrew Lindsey, Co-Founder and CEO of Flexnode. In a recent episode of the Data Center Frontier Show podcast, Lindsey joined Editor-in-Chief Matt Vincent and Senior Editor David Chernicoff to discuss the evolution of modular data centers, the growing demand for high-density liquid-cooled solutions, and the industry factors driving this momentum. A Background Rooted in Innovation Lindsey’s career has been defined by the intersection of technology and the built environment. Prior to launching Flexnode, he worked at Alpha Corporation, a top 100 engineering and construction management firm founded by his father in 1979. His early career involved spearheading technology adoption within the firm, with a focus on high-security infrastructure for both government and private clients. Recognizing a massive opportunity in the data center space, Lindsey saw a need for an innovative approach to infrastructure deployment. “The construction industry is relatively uninnovative,” he explained, citing a McKinsey study that ranked construction as the second least-digitized industry—just above fishing and wildlife, which remains deliberately undigitized. Given the billions of square feet of data center infrastructure required in a relatively short timeframe, Lindsey set out to streamline and modernize the process. Founded four years ago, Flexnode delivers modular data centers with a fully integrated approach, handling everything from site selection to design, engineering, manufacturing, deployment, operations, and even end-of-life decommissioning. Their core mission is to provide an “easy button” for high-density computing solutions, including cloud and dedicated GPU infrastructure, allowing faster and more efficient deployment of modular data centers. The Rising Momentum for Modular Data Centers As Vincent noted, Data Center Frontier has closely tracked the increasing traction of modular infrastructure. Lindsey has been at the forefront of this

Last Energy to Deploy 30 Microreactors in Texas for Data Centers

As the demand for data center power surges in Texas, nuclear startup Last Energy has now announced plans to build 30 microreactors in the state’s Haskell County near the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. The reactors will serve a growing customer base of data center operators in the region looking for reliable, carbon-free energy. The plan marks Last Energy’s largest project to date and a significant step in advancing modular nuclear power as a viable solution for high-density computing infrastructure. Meeting the Looming Power Demands of Texas Data Centers Texas is already home to over 340 data centers, with significant expansion underway. Google is increasing its data center footprint in Dallas, while OpenAI’s Stargate has announced plans for a new facility in Abilene, just an hour south of Last Energy’s planned site. The company notes the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area alone is projected to require an additional 43 gigawatts of power in the coming years, far surpassing current grid capacity. To help remediate, Last Energy has secured a 200+ acre site in Haskell County, approximately three and a half hours west of Dallas. The company has also filed for a grid connection with ERCOT, with plans to deliver power via a mix of private wire and grid transmission. Additionally, Last Energy has begun pre-application engagement with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for an Early Site Permit, a key step in securing regulatory approval. According to Last Energy CEO Bret Kugelmass, the company’s modular approach is designed to bring nuclear energy online faster than traditional projects. “Nuclear power is the most effective way to meet Texas’ growing energy demand, but it needs to be deployed faster and at scale,” Kugelmass said. “Our microreactors are designed to be plug-and-play, enabling data center operators to bypass the constraints of an overloaded grid.” Scaling Nuclear for

Data Center Jobs: Engineering and Technician Jobs Available in Major Markets

Each month Data Center Frontier, in partnership with Pkaza, posts some of the hottest data center career opportunities in the market. Here’s a look at some of the latest data center jobs posted on the Data Center Frontier jobs board, powered by Pkaza Critical Facilities Recruiting. Data Center Facility Engineer (Night Shift Available) Ashburn, VAThis position is also available in: Tacoma, WA (Nights), Days/Nights: Needham, MA and New York City, NY. This opportunity is working directly with a leading mission-critical data center developer / wholesaler / colo provider. This firm provides data center solutions custom-fit to the requirements of their client’s mission-critical operational facilities. They provide reliability of mission-critical facilities for many of the world’s largest organizations facilities supporting enterprise clients and hyperscale companies. This opportunity provides a career-growth minded role with exciting projects with leading-edge technology and innovation as well as competitive salaries and benefits. Electrical Commissioning Engineer New Albany, OHThis traveling position is also available in: Somerset, NJ; Boydton, VA; Richmond, VA; Ashburn, VA; Charlotte, NC; Atlanta, GA; Hampton, GA; Fayetteville, GA; Des Moines, IA; San Jose, CA; Portland, OR; St Louis, MO; Phoenix, AZ; Dallas, TX; Chicago, IL; or Toronto, ON. *** ALSO looking for a LEAD EE and ME CxA agents.*** Our client is an engineering design and commissioning company that has a national footprint and specializes in MEP critical facilities design. They provide design, commissioning, consulting and management expertise in the critical facilities space. They have a mindset to provide reliability, energy efficiency, sustainable design and LEED expertise when providing these consulting services for enterprise, colocation and hyperscale companies. This career-growth minded opportunity offers exciting projects with leading-edge technology and innovation as well as competitive salaries and benefits. Switchgear Field Service Technician – Critical Facilities Nationwide TravelThis position is also available in: Charlotte, NC; Atlanta, GA; Dallas,

Amid Shifting Regional Data Center Policies, Iron Mountain and DC Blox Both Expand in Virginia’s Henrico County

The dynamic landscape of data center developments in Maryland and Virginia exemplify the intricate balance between fostering technological growth and addressing community and environmental concerns. Data center developers in this region find themselves both in the crosshairs of groups worried about the environment and other groups looking to drive economic growth. In some cases, the groups are different components of the same organizations, such as local governments. For data center development, meeting the needs of these competing interests often means walking a none-too-stable tightrope. Rapid Government Action Encourages Growth In May 2024, Maryland demonstrated its commitment to attracting data center investments by enacting the Critical Infrastructure Streamlining Act. This legislation provides a clear framework for the use of emergency backup power generation, addressing previous regulatory challenges that a few months earlier had hindered projects like Aligned Data Centers’ proposed 264-megawatt campus in Frederick County, causing Aligned to pull out of the project. However, just days after the Act was signed by the governor, Aligned reiterated its plans to move forward with development in Maryland. With the Quantum Loop and the related data center development making Frederick County a focal point for a balanced approach, the industry is paying careful attention to the pace of development and the relations between developers, communities and the government. In September of 2024, Frederick County Executive Jessica Fitzwater revealed draft legislation that would potentially restrict where in the county data centers could be built. The legislation was based on information found in the Frederick County Data Centers Workgroup’s final report. Those bills would update existing regulations and create a floating zone for Critical Digital Infrastructure and place specific requirements on siting data centers. Statewide, a cautious approach to environmental and community impacts statewide has been deemed important. In January 2025, legislators introduced SB116, a bill

New Reports Show How AI, Power, and Investment Trends Are Reshaping the Data Center Landscape

Today we provide a comprehensive roundup of the latest industry analyst reports from CBRE, PwC, and Synergy Research, offering a data-driven perspective on the state of the North American data center market. To wit, CBRE’s latest findings highlight record-breaking growth in supply, soaring colocation pricing, and mounting power constraints shaping site selection. For its part, PwC’s analysis underscores the sector’s broader economic impact, quantifying its trillion-dollar contribution to GDP, rapid job growth, and surging tax revenues. Meanwhile, the latest industry analysis from Synergy Research details the acceleration of cloud spending, AI’s role in fueling infrastructure demand, and an unprecedented surge in data center mergers and acquisitions. Together, these reports paint a picture of an industry at an inflection point—balancing explosive expansion with evolving challenges in power availability, cost pressures, and infrastructure investment. Let’s examine them. CBRE: Surging Demand Fuels Record Data Center Expansion CBRE says the North American data center sector is scaling at an unprecedented pace, driven by unrelenting demand from artificial intelligence (AI), hyperscale, and cloud service providers. The latest North America Data Center Trends H2 2024 report from CBRE reveals that total supply across primary markets surged by 34% year-over-year to 6,922.6 megawatts (MW), outpacing the 26% growth recorded in 2023. This accelerating expansion has triggered record-breaking construction activity and intensified competition for available capacity. Market Momentum: Scaling Amid Power Constraints According to CBRE, data center construction activity reached historic levels, with 6,350 MW under development at the close of 2024—more than doubling the 3,077.8 MW recorded a year prior. Yet, the report finds the surge in development is being met with significant hurdles, including power constraints and supply chain challenges affecting critical electrical infrastructure. As a result, the vacancy rate across primary markets has plummeted to an all-time low of 1.9%, with only a handful of sites

Minnesota PUC Says No to Amazon’s Bid to Fast-Track 250 Diesel Generators for Data Center

Amazon is facing scrutiny and significant pushbacks over its plan to install 250 diesel backup generators for a proposed data center in Becker, Minnesota. Much of the concern had been due to the fact that the hyperscaler was seeking an exemption from the state’s standard permitting process, a move that has sparked opposition from environmental groups and state officials. Aggregate Power that Matches Nuclear Power Generation Amazon’s proposed fleet of diesel generators would have a maximum power output almost equivalent to the 647 MW that is produced by Xcel Energy’s nuclear plant in Monticello, one of the two existing nuclear generation stations in the state. Meanwhile, as reported by Datacenter Dynamics, according to a real estate filing published with the Minnesota Department of Revenue, the land parcel assigned for the Amazon data center in Becker was previously part of Minneapolis-based utility Xcel’s coal-powered Sherco Site. Amazon argues that the diesel generators in question are essential to ensuring reliable and secure access to critical data and applications for its customers, including hospitals and first responders. However, opponents worry about the environmental impact and the precedent it may set for future large-scale data center developments in the state. The Law and Its Exception Under Minnesota state law, any power plant capable of generating 50 megawatts or more that connects to the grid via transmission lines must obtain a Certificate of Need from the Public Utilities Commission (PUC). This certification ensures that the infrastructure is necessary and that no cheaper, cleaner alternatives exist. Amazon, however, contends that its generators do not fall under this requirement because they are not connected to the larger electric grid; power generated would be strictly used by the data center suffering an outage from its primary power source. That power would be generated locally, and not transmitted over

Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs). In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

Stay Ahead, Stay ONMINE