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In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 0.6 million barrels for the week ending February 21.
“This compares to our early look for the week which anticipated a 0.7 million barrel build, and a 4.6 million barrel build realized for the week ending February 14,” the strategists said in the report.
“On the product side of the ledger, in aggregate, our expectations are modestly tighter than our early view,” they added.
“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model crude runs down minimally. Among net imports, we model a modest increase, with exports (+0.3 million barrels per day) and imports up (+0.5 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The strategists noted in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), amidst potential weather impacts and following a strong print last week, we look for a large reduction (-0.8 million barrels per day) this week,” the strategists went on to state.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate no change in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks again this week,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists also revealed in the report that, “among products”, they “look for draws in gasoline (-1.2 million barrels) and distillate (-2.9 million barrels), with a small build in jet (+0.1 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.3 million barrels per day for the week ending February 21,” the strategists said in the report.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on Friday, Macquarie strategists outlined that they “anticipate a small U.S. crude build” in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) next weekly petroleum status report.
That report is scheduled to be released on February 26 and will include data for the week ending February 21.
“Looking ahead to next week’s release, we anticipate a small U.S. crude build (+0.7 million barrels), with runs slightly higher (+0.1 million barrels per day) and net imports up moderately (+0.5 million barrels per day), nominal implied supply down sharply amidst potential weather impacts and following a very strong print (-0.8 million barrels per day), and a larger increase in SPR inventory (+0.9 million barrels) on the week,” the Macquarie strategists said in the report sent to Rigzone on February 21.
“We note potential for volatility in these figures given the incomplete nature of this week’s data. Among products, our preliminary expectations point to draws in gasoline (-0.3 million barrels) and distillate (-2.8 million barrels) with jet stocks higher (+0.4 million barrels),” they added.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 4.6 million barrels from the week ending February 7 to the week ending February 14, the EIA highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing. This report was released on February 20 and included data for the week ending February 14.
The EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 432.5 million barrels on February 14, 427.9 million barrels on February 7, and 443.0 million barrels on February 16, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 395.3 million barrels on February 14 and February 7, and 359.5 million barrels on February 16, 2024, the report outlined.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.607 billion barrels on February 14, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were up 0.2 million barrels week on week and up 16.4 million barrels year on year, the report outlined.
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