The latest advice to government from the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has recommended that the UK cuts its greenhouse gas emissions by 87% by 2040 – with a third of the reductions coming from household action.
In its latest advice for how to end the UK’s contribution to global warming, the independent advisory committee has set out what it says is a deliverable and cost-effective route to the greenhouse gas emissions cuts required from 2038 to 2042 in the the 7th carbon budget (CB7). This will ensure the UK meets the legally-binding goal to cut climate pollution to zero overall – known as net zero – by 2050.
CCC key recommendations:
- the number of heat pumps being installed in existing homes to rise from 60,000 in 2023 to nearly 450,000 by 2030 and around 1.5 million by 2035.
- three-quarters of cars and vans on the road will be electric by 2040, up from only 2.8% of cars and 1.4% of vans in 2023, with rules phasing out petrol and diesel cars.
- curb demand for flights to reduce emissions from aviation, which CCC estimates would push up cost of a return ticket to Alicante, Spain, by £150 although the panel warned protections are needed to allow families to fly on holiday once a year.
- people will have to eat 25% less meat by 2040 compared with 2019 levels and reduce dairy by 20%.
The report was welcomed by industry which clutched on its advice that an 11% reduction in industrial emissions would require carbon capture and storage (CCS) particularly in the chemicals and cement and lime industries.
CCC said it “cannot see a route to net zero that does not include CCS”, and estimated that by 2040 both “bioenergy with CCS and direct air capture” will need to be in use.
© Supplied by CCSACarbon capture trade association boss Olivia Powis said the CCC findings meant government needed to provide “swift and decisive” action on CCS.
The CCSA chief executive said: “Achieving this carbon budget—while ensuring an affordable and secure energy system—requires swift and decisive government action to deploy critical technologies like carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) now.”
“We are pleased that the CCC reaffirms CCUS as a vital enabler across multiple sectors, underpinning pathways for clean power generation, low-carbon fuel production, industrial decarbonisation, and carbon removals. As the CCC states, there is no route to net zero without CCUS.
“However, we believe today’s CCUS targets, including those for low-carbon dispatchable power and carbon removals, are conservative.
“The government must set bold, upfront targets to accelerate industrial decarbonisation and clean power. To maintain momentum, it must urgently commit to deploying already-selected CCUS projects across the UK’s industrial heartlands, along with the wider project pipeline.
“Failure to act now risks leaving us open to further extreme weather events and the costs of dealing with climate change, as well as losing ground and opportunity in the global race to net zero.”
© Supplied by CCSA
© Supplied by CCSACCC also highlighted the need for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and shipping fuels, as well as hydrogen – although it warned against using hydrogen to heat buildings or in transportation.
Concerns over safety are being raised around current trials of home boilers including in Fife, Scotland.
Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) welcomed the CCC report and said the oil and gas sector will play a “major role” in net zero .
OEUK director of policy and sustainability Michael Tholen said: “The offshore energies industry is key to delivering a diverse energy mix, scaling up renewables and electrification at the same time as meeting the demand for oil and gas from UK homes and our industrial base.
“The CCC forecasts an 11% reduction in industrial emissions which is the largest target for any single sector and says carbon capture and hydrogen technologies will both play important roles for industries that require intense heat and cannot easily convert to electricity. It’s vital that we invest in these new technologies to futureproof British industry and jobs and communities.
“The UK’s homegrown oil and gas sector was one of the first to sign up to net zero, reducing emissions by 29 per cent since 2018, and remains on track to meet its goals. By the time we reach our carbon reduction targets in 2050 we will still be getting 20% of our energy from oil and gas so it makes sense to produce as much of it as we can here in the UK rather than relying on more carbon intensive imports.”
LCP estimates investment of £120 billion is needed to meet the UK government’s clean power 2030 targets, and this is set to grow to £235 billion in power generation technologies between 2030 and 2050.
Sir John Armitt, chair of the National Infrastructure Commission, agreed with CCC projections that domestic heat pumps and adoption of electric vehicles were key to achieving net zero, but this meant government now faced putting in “hard yards” ensuring electricity becomes cheaper in order for it to replace the UK’s current reliance on gas.
Armitt said: “The CCC is right to say that the path ahead is clear. The future is electrified and government needs to get on and deliver it. As our second National Infrastructure Assessment showed, electric vehicles and heat pumps will decarbonise the economy, lower bills and deliver greater energy security.
“But for this to happen, government must now put in the hard yards and enable the transition. Making electricity cheaper relative to gas is essential to enabling the switch to heat pumps – that should be its top priority. And there needs to be sustained financial and non-financial support to help households make the switch, especially for those on lower incomes.”
CCC estimates households could save £700 a year on energy bills in 2050 with a switch to heat pumps, although consumers will need help with the upfront costs of fitting houses with low-carbon tech, and electricity will need to be cheaper.
Climate Change Committee chief executive Emma Pinchbeck said there is a “really good economic message” in the recommendations, as well as a good message for households.
“It’s been really hard for years for people, and a large proportion of that hardship has come from our dependence on volatile gas prices and the cost for people of heating their homes.
“And anything we can do to get these technologies into people’s hands and make the use of low-cost electricity, I’m well up for, on a cost-of-living basis,” she said.
The prediction on future energy costs comes after it emerged the UK’s energy price cap will add an extra £111 a year for many UK households, the highest level in more than a year.
Laith Whitwham, senior policy advisor at climate think tank E3G, said: “The CCC are crystal clear, electrification will be the main route to decarbonise industry. But the government is piling billions into hydrogen and CCS while doing next to nothing to make electrification quicker, easier, and more affordable. The government must lower electricity bills now to power up British industry.”
