
While tariffs and macroeconomic concerns weighed on the outlook for oil at a major energy conference in Houston this week, the mood around artificial intelligence and its sky-high power needs could scarcely be different.
For a second year, energy executives at the CERAWeek by S&P Global gathering hailed the looming data center requirements for AI as both a huge challenge and a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
“The only way we win the AI arms race with China is if we have electricity,” US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in his address. “They are moving at a speed that would suggest we are in a serious cyberwar with them.”
The energy world appears to have shrugged off investor doubts that emerged over the AI-power narrative in January, when Chinese startup DeepSeek released a chat bot purported to use just a fraction of the electricity required by established US rivals.
Despite that wobble, many forecasts for US power demand are still unprecedented — and come after more than two decades of stable consumption. Jenny Yang, head of power and renewables research at S&P, told conference delegates Thursday that US utilities’ estimates for additional power demand coming just from data centers by 2030 are equivalent to the entire Ercot power market in Texas.
“We’re seeing load forecasts that, in my experience as a state regulator, are mind-boggling,” said Mark Christie, a former energy regulator in Virginia, the data-center capital of the US, and who now chairs the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
The so-called hyperscalers continue to race ahead with their build-out of AI infrastructure. Google parent Alphabet Inc. reported last month it plans capital expenditures of $75 billion this year.
The power demand related to that spending “is coming so fast and from so many different directions,” Alan Armstrong, chief executive officer of US pipeline operator Williams Cos., said in an interview.
Tech companies can afford to pay up via multi-year contracts. The CEO of US power company Constellation Energy Corp., Joseph Dominguez, pointed out that electricity still accounts for less than 10% of the hyperscalers’ overall costs.
And while there’s no longer quite frenzied bidding for power as seen last year — when tech customers made the same requests to five or six different utilities — interest still remains high, Dominguez said. He sees the same pace for power deals in 2025 as last year.
There was a consensus at CERAWeek this week that natural gas will fill much of the new demand, even though tech customers have sought out renewable and clean power, including nuclear.
“The hyperscalers are going to have to make some tough decisions between their own climate goals, on the one hand, and their growth needs,” Dominguez said.
During the Houston conference, which drew around 10,000 delegates, there was also an acknowledgment that the precise trajectory of AI’s electricity demand remains elusive.
“Supply, you can figure out,” Freeport LNG Development CEO Michael Smith told delegates. “Demand, you go by trend lines. AI is a whole new animal.”
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