
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down by 1.2 million barrels for the week ending March 14.
“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model crude runs up modestly (+0.2 million barrels per day) following a strong print last week,” the strategists noted in the report.
“Among net imports, we model a meaningful reduction, with exports sharply higher (+0.9 million barrels per day) and imports also up (+0.3 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they added.
The strategists stated in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a moderate increase (+0.3 million barrels per day) this week,” the strategists said in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate another small increase in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks (+0.3 million barrels) this week,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists went on to state in the report that, “among products”, they “look for draws in gasoline (-3.0 million barrels) and distillate (-0.6 million barrels), with a build in jet (+1.0 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.6 million barrels per day for the week ending March 14,” the Macquarie strategists went on to state.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on March 12 and included data for the week ending March 7, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 1.4 million barrels from the week ending February 28 to the week ending March 7.
The report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 435.2 million barrels on March 7, 433.8 million barrels on February 28, and 447.0 million barrels on March 8, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 395.6 million barrels on March 7, 395.3 million barrels on February 28, and 361.6 million barrels on March 8, 2024, the report outlined.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.594 billion barrels on March 7, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were down 5.7 million barrels week on week and up 15.2 million barrels year on year, the report revealed.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on March 10, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up 5.7 million barrels for the week ending March 7.
“This compares to our early look for the week which anticipated a 7.9 million barrel build, and a 3.6 million barrel build realized for the week ending February 28,” the strategists said in that report.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on March 19. It will include data for the week ending March 14.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on March 12, Macquarie projected that the WTI price will average $64.75 per barrel in 2025 and $58.38 per barrel in 2026.
Macquarie sees the commodity coming in at $70.00 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $62.00 per barrel in the second quarter, $63.50 per barrel across the third and fourth quarters, $58.50 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $56.00 per barrel in the second quarter, $57.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $61.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to this report.
“We are modestly reducing our FY’25 oil price outlook, with WTI averaging ~$65 per barrel, down from ~$66 per barrel as risks are slightly weighed to the downside,” Macquarie strategists said in that report.
“In addition, we have increased our FY’25 U.S. natural gas outlook. Nevertheless, our 2025 and 2026 natural gas price targets of $3.90 per million British thermal units (MMBTU) and $3.60 per MMBTU sit comfortably below the forward curve,” they added.
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