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R.E.D.: Scaling Text Classification with Expert Delegation

With the new age of problem-solving augmented by Large Language Models (LLMs), only a handful of problems remain that have subpar solutions. Most classification problems (at a PoC level) can be solved by leveraging LLMs at 70–90% Precision/F1 with just good prompt engineering techniques, as well as adaptive in-context-learning (ICL) examples. What happens when you want to consistently achieve performance higher than that — when prompt engineering no longer suffices? The classification conundrum Text classification is one of the oldest and most well-understood examples of supervised learning. Given this premise, it should really not be hard to build robust, well-performing classifiers that handle a large number of input classes, right…? Welp. It is. It actually has to do a lot more with the ‘constraints’ that the algorithm is generally expected to work under: low amount of training data per class high classification accuracy (that plummets as you add more classes) possible addition of new classes to an existing subset of classes quick training/inference cost-effectiveness (potentially) really large number of training classes (potentially) endless required retraining of some classes due to data drift, etc. Ever tried building a classifier beyond a few dozen classes under these conditions? (I mean, even GPT could probably do a great job up to ~30 text classes with just a few samples…) Considering you take the GPT route — If you have more than a couple dozen classes or a sizeable amount of data to be classified, you are gonna have to reach deep into your pockets with the system prompt, user prompt, few shot example tokens that you will need to classify one sample. That is after making peace with the throughput of the API, even if you are running async queries. In applied ML, problems like these are generally tricky to solve since they don’t fully satisfy the requirements of supervised learning or aren’t cheap/fast enough to be run via an LLM. This particular pain point is what the R.E.D algorithm addresses: semi-supervised learning, when the training data per class is not enough to build (quasi)traditional classifiers. The R.E.D. algorithm R.E.D: Recursive Expert Delegation is a novel framework that changes how we approach text classification. This is an applied ML paradigm — i.e., there is no fundamentally different architecture to what exists, but its a highlight reel of ideas that work best to build something that is practical and scalable. In this post, we will be working through a specific example where we have a large number of text classes (100–1000), each class only has few samples (30–100), and there are a non-trivial number of samples to classify (10,000–100,000). We approach this as a semi-supervised learning problem via R.E.D. Let’s dive in. How it works simple representation of what R.E.D. does Instead of having a single classifier classify between a large number of classes, R.E.D. intelligently: Divides and conquers — Break the label space (large number of input labels) into multiple subsets of labels. This is a greedy label subset formation approach. Learns efficiently — Trains specialized classifiers for each subset. This step focuses on building a classifier that oversamples on noise, where noise is intelligently modeled as data from other subsets. Delegates to an expert — Employes LLMs as expert oracles for specific label validation and correction only, similar to having a team of domain experts. Using an LLM as a proxy, it empirically ‘mimics’ how a human expert validates an output. Recursive retraining — Continuously retrains with fresh samples added back from the expert until there are no more samples to be added/a saturation from information gain is achieved The intuition behind it is not very hard to grasp: Active Learning employs humans as domain experts to consistently ‘correct’ or ‘validate’ the outputs from an ML model, with continuous training. This stops when the model achieves acceptable performance. We intuit and rebrand the same, with a few clever innovations that will be detailed in a research pre-print later. Let’s take a deeper look… Greedy subset selection with least similar elements When the number of input labels (classes) is high, the complexity of learning a linear decision boundary between classes increases. As such, the quality of the classifier deteriorates as the number of classes increases. This is especially true when the classifier does not have enough samples to learn from — i.e. each of the training classes has only a few samples. This is very reflective of a real-world scenario, and the primary motivation behind the creation of R.E.D. Some ways of improving a classifier’s performance under these constraints: Restrict the number of classes a classifier needs to classify between Make the decision boundary between classes clearer, i.e., train the classifier on highly dissimilar classes Greedy Subset Selection does exactly this — since the scope of the problem is Text Classification, we form embeddings of the training labels, reduce their dimensionality via UMAP, then form S subsets from them. Each of the S subsets has elements as n training labels. We pick training labels greedily, ensuring that every label we pick for the subset is the most dissimilar label w.r.t. the other labels that exist in the subset: import numpy as np from sklearn.metrics.pairwise import cosine_similarity def avg_embedding(candidate_embeddings): return np.mean(candidate_embeddings, axis=0) def get_least_similar_embedding(target_embedding, candidate_embeddings): similarities = cosine_similarity(target_embedding, candidate_embeddings) least_similar_index = np.argmin(similarities) # Use argmin to find the index of the minimum least_similar_element = candidate_embeddings[least_similar_index] return least_similar_element def get_embedding_class(embedding, embedding_map): reverse_embedding_map = {value: key for key, value in embedding_map.items()} return reverse_embedding_map.get(embedding) # Use .get() to handle missing keys gracefully def select_subsets(embeddings, n): visited = {cls: False for cls in embeddings.keys()} subsets = [] current_subset = [] while any(not visited[cls] for cls in visited): for cls, average_embedding in embeddings.items(): if not current_subset: current_subset.append(average_embedding) visited[cls] = True elif len(current_subset) >= n: subsets.append(current_subset.copy()) current_subset = [] else: subset_average = avg_embedding(current_subset) remaining_embeddings = [emb for cls_, emb in embeddings.items() if not visited[cls_]] if not remaining_embeddings: break # handle edge case least_similar = get_least_similar_embedding(target_embedding=subset_average, candidate_embeddings=remaining_embeddings) visited_class = get_embedding_class(least_similar, embeddings) if visited_class is not None: visited[visited_class] = True current_subset.append(least_similar) if current_subset: # Add any remaining elements in current_subset subsets.append(current_subset) return subsets the result of this greedy subset sampling is all the training labels clearly boxed into subsets, where each subset has at most only n classes. This inherently makes the job of a classifier easier, compared to the original S classes it would have to classify between otherwise! Semi-supervised classification with noise oversampling Cascade this after the initial label subset formation — i.e., this classifier is only classifying between a given subset of classes. Picture this: when you have low amounts of training data, you absolutely cannot create a hold-out set that is meaningful for evaluation. Should you do it at all? How do you know if your classifier is working well? We approached this problem slightly differently — we defined the fundamental job of a semi-supervised classifier to be pre-emptive classification of a sample. This means that regardless of what a sample gets classified as it will be ‘verified’ and ‘corrected’ at a later stage: this classifier only needs to identify what needs to be verified. As such, we created a design for how it would treat its data: n+1 classes, where the last class is noise noise: data from classes that are NOT in the current classifier’s purview. The noise class is oversampled to be 2x the average size of the data for the classifier’s labels Oversampling on noise is a faux-safety measure, to ensure that adjacent data that belongs to another class is most likely predicted as noise instead of slipping through for verification. How do you check if this classifier is working well — in our experiments, we define this as the number of ‘uncertain’ samples in a classifier’s prediction. Using uncertainty sampling and information gain principles, we were effectively able to gauge if a classifier is ‘learning’ or not, which acts as a pointer towards classification performance. This classifier is consistently retrained unless there is an inflection point in the number of uncertain samples predicted, or there is only a delta of information being added iteratively by new samples. Proxy active learning via an LLM agent This is the heart of the approach — using an LLM as a proxy for a human validator. The human validator approach we are talking about is Active Labelling Let’s get an intuitive understanding of Active Labelling: Use an ML model to learn on a sample input dataset, predict on a large set of datapoints For the predictions given on the datapoints, a subject-matter expert (SME) evaluates ‘validity’ of predictions Recursively, new ‘corrected’ samples are added as training data to the ML model The ML model consistently learns/retrains, and makes predictions until the SME is satisfied by the quality of predictions For Active Labelling to work, there are expectations involved for an SME: when we expect a human expert to ‘validate’ an output sample, the expert understands what the task is a human expert will use judgement to evaluate ‘what else’ definitely belongs to a label L when deciding if a new sample should belong to L Given these expectations and intuitions, we can ‘mimic’ these using an LLM: give the LLM an ‘understanding’ of what each label means. This can be done by using a larger model to critically evaluate the relationship between {label: data mapped to label} for all labels. In our experiments, this was done using a 32B variant of DeepSeek that was self-hosted. Giving an LLM the capability to understand ‘why, what, and how’ Instead of predicting what is the correct label, leverage the LLM to identify if a prediction is ‘valid’ or ‘invalid’ only (i.e., LLM only has to answer a binary query). Reinforce the idea of what other valid samples for the label look like, i.e., for every pre-emptively predicted label for a sample, dynamically source c closest samples in its training (guaranteed valid) set when prompting for validation. The result? A cost-effective framework that relies on a fast, cheap classifier to make pre-emptive classifications, and an LLM that verifies these using (meaning of the label + dynamically sourced training samples that are similar to the current classification): import math def calculate_uncertainty(clf, sample): predicted_probabilities = clf.predict_proba(sample.reshape(1, -1))[0] # Reshape sample for predict_proba uncertainty = -sum(p * math.log(p, 2) for p in predicted_probabilities) return uncertainty def select_informative_samples(clf, data, k): informative_samples = [] uncertainties = [calculate_uncertainty(clf, sample) for sample in data] # Sort data by descending order of uncertainty sorted_data = sorted(zip(data, uncertainties), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) # Get top k samples with highest uncertainty for sample, uncertainty in sorted_data[:k]: informative_samples.append(sample) return informative_samples def proxy_label(clf, llm_judge, k, testing_data): #llm_judge – any LLM with a system prompt tuned for verifying if a sample belongs to a class. Expected output is a bool : True or False. True verifies the original classification, False refutes it predicted_classes = clf.predict(testing_data) # Select k most informative samples using uncertainty sampling informative_samples = select_informative_samples(clf, testing_data, k) # List to store correct samples voted_data = [] # Evaluate informative samples with the LLM judge for sample in informative_samples: sample_index = testing_data.tolist().index(sample.tolist()) # changed from testing_data.index(sample) because of numpy array type issue predicted_class = predicted_classes[sample_index] # Check if LLM judge agrees with the prediction if llm_judge(sample, predicted_class): # If correct, add the sample to voted data voted_data.append(sample) # Return the list of correct samples with proxy labels return voted_data By feeding the valid samples (voted_data) to our classifier under controlled parameters, we achieve the ‘recursive’ part of our algorithm: Recursive Expert Delegation: R.E.D. By doing this, we were able to achieve close-to-human-expert validation numbers on controlled multi-class datasets. Experimentally, R.E.D. scales up to 1,000 classes while maintaining a competent degree of accuracy almost on par with human experts (90%+ agreement). I believe this is a significant achievement in applied ML, and has real-world uses for production-grade expectations of cost, speed, scale, and adaptability. The technical report, publishing later this year, highlights relevant code samples as well as experimental setups used to achieve given results. All images, unless otherwise noted, are by the author Interested in more details? Reach out to me over Medium or email for a chat!

With the new age of problem-solving augmented by Large Language Models (LLMs), only a handful of problems remain that have subpar solutions. Most classification problems (at a PoC level) can be solved by leveraging LLMs at 70–90% Precision/F1 with just good prompt engineering techniques, as well as adaptive in-context-learning (ICL) examples.

What happens when you want to consistently achieve performance higher than that — when prompt engineering no longer suffices?

The classification conundrum

Text classification is one of the oldest and most well-understood examples of supervised learning. Given this premise, it should really not be hard to build robust, well-performing classifiers that handle a large number of input classes, right…?

Welp. It is.

It actually has to do a lot more with the ‘constraints’ that the algorithm is generally expected to work under:

  • low amount of training data per class
  • high classification accuracy (that plummets as you add more classes)
  • possible addition of new classes to an existing subset of classes
  • quick training/inference
  • cost-effectiveness
  • (potentially) really large number of training classes
  • (potentially) endless required retraining of some classes due to data drift, etc.

Ever tried building a classifier beyond a few dozen classes under these conditions? (I mean, even GPT could probably do a great job up to ~30 text classes with just a few samples…)

Considering you take the GPT route — If you have more than a couple dozen classes or a sizeable amount of data to be classified, you are gonna have to reach deep into your pockets with the system prompt, user prompt, few shot example tokens that you will need to classify one sample. That is after making peace with the throughput of the API, even if you are running async queries.

In applied ML, problems like these are generally tricky to solve since they don’t fully satisfy the requirements of supervised learning or aren’t cheap/fast enough to be run via an LLM. This particular pain point is what the R.E.D algorithm addresses: semi-supervised learning, when the training data per class is not enough to build (quasi)traditional classifiers.

The R.E.D. algorithm

R.E.D: Recursive Expert Delegation is a novel framework that changes how we approach text classification. This is an applied ML paradigm — i.e., there is no fundamentally different architecture to what exists, but its a highlight reel of ideas that work best to build something that is practical and scalable.

In this post, we will be working through a specific example where we have a large number of text classes (100–1000), each class only has few samples (30–100), and there are a non-trivial number of samples to classify (10,000–100,000). We approach this as a semi-supervised learning problem via R.E.D.

Let’s dive in.

How it works

simple representation of what R.E.D. does

Instead of having a single classifier classify between a large number of classes, R.E.D. intelligently:

  1. Divides and conquers — Break the label space (large number of input labels) into multiple subsets of labels. This is a greedy label subset formation approach.
  2. Learns efficiently — Trains specialized classifiers for each subset. This step focuses on building a classifier that oversamples on noise, where noise is intelligently modeled as data from other subsets.
  3. Delegates to an expert — Employes LLMs as expert oracles for specific label validation and correction only, similar to having a team of domain experts. Using an LLM as a proxy, it empirically ‘mimics’ how a human expert validates an output.
  4. Recursive retraining — Continuously retrains with fresh samples added back from the expert until there are no more samples to be added/a saturation from information gain is achieved

The intuition behind it is not very hard to grasp: Active Learning employs humans as domain experts to consistently ‘correct’ or ‘validate’ the outputs from an ML model, with continuous training. This stops when the model achieves acceptable performance. We intuit and rebrand the same, with a few clever innovations that will be detailed in a research pre-print later.

Let’s take a deeper look…

Greedy subset selection with least similar elements

When the number of input labels (classes) is high, the complexity of learning a linear decision boundary between classes increases. As such, the quality of the classifier deteriorates as the number of classes increases. This is especially true when the classifier does not have enough samples to learn from — i.e. each of the training classes has only a few samples.

This is very reflective of a real-world scenario, and the primary motivation behind the creation of R.E.D.

Some ways of improving a classifier’s performance under these constraints:

  • Restrict the number of classes a classifier needs to classify between
  • Make the decision boundary between classes clearer, i.e., train the classifier on highly dissimilar classes

Greedy Subset Selection does exactly this — since the scope of the problem is Text Classification, we form embeddings of the training labels, reduce their dimensionality via UMAP, then form S subsets from them. Each of the subsets has elements as training labels. We pick training labels greedily, ensuring that every label we pick for the subset is the most dissimilar label w.r.t. the other labels that exist in the subset:

import numpy as np
from sklearn.metrics.pairwise import cosine_similarity


def avg_embedding(candidate_embeddings):
    return np.mean(candidate_embeddings, axis=0)

def get_least_similar_embedding(target_embedding, candidate_embeddings):
    similarities = cosine_similarity(target_embedding, candidate_embeddings)
    least_similar_index = np.argmin(similarities)  # Use argmin to find the index of the minimum
    least_similar_element = candidate_embeddings[least_similar_index]
    return least_similar_element


def get_embedding_class(embedding, embedding_map):
    reverse_embedding_map = {value: key for key, value in embedding_map.items()}
    return reverse_embedding_map.get(embedding)  # Use .get() to handle missing keys gracefully


def select_subsets(embeddings, n):
    visited = {cls: False for cls in embeddings.keys()}
    subsets = []
    current_subset = []

    while any(not visited[cls] for cls in visited):
        for cls, average_embedding in embeddings.items():
            if not current_subset:
                current_subset.append(average_embedding)
                visited[cls] = True
            elif len(current_subset) >= n:
                subsets.append(current_subset.copy())
                current_subset = []
            else:
                subset_average = avg_embedding(current_subset)
                remaining_embeddings = [emb for cls_, emb in embeddings.items() if not visited[cls_]]
                if not remaining_embeddings:
                    break # handle edge case
                
                least_similar = get_least_similar_embedding(target_embedding=subset_average, candidate_embeddings=remaining_embeddings)

                visited_class = get_embedding_class(least_similar, embeddings)

                
                if visited_class is not None:
                  visited[visited_class] = True


                current_subset.append(least_similar)
    
    if current_subset:  # Add any remaining elements in current_subset
        subsets.append(current_subset)
        

    return subsets

the result of this greedy subset sampling is all the training labels clearly boxed into subsets, where each subset has at most only classes. This inherently makes the job of a classifier easier, compared to the original classes it would have to classify between otherwise!

Semi-supervised classification with noise oversampling

Cascade this after the initial label subset formation — i.e., this classifier is only classifying between a given subset of classes.

Picture this: when you have low amounts of training data, you absolutely cannot create a hold-out set that is meaningful for evaluation. Should you do it at all? How do you know if your classifier is working well?

We approached this problem slightly differently — we defined the fundamental job of a semi-supervised classifier to be pre-emptive classification of a sample. This means that regardless of what a sample gets classified as it will be ‘verified’ and ‘corrected’ at a later stage: this classifier only needs to identify what needs to be verified.

As such, we created a design for how it would treat its data:

  • n+1 classes, where the last class is noise
  • noise: data from classes that are NOT in the current classifier’s purview. The noise class is oversampled to be 2x the average size of the data for the classifier’s labels

Oversampling on noise is a faux-safety measure, to ensure that adjacent data that belongs to another class is most likely predicted as noise instead of slipping through for verification.

How do you check if this classifier is working well — in our experiments, we define this as the number of ‘uncertain’ samples in a classifier’s prediction. Using uncertainty sampling and information gain principles, we were effectively able to gauge if a classifier is ‘learning’ or not, which acts as a pointer towards classification performance. This classifier is consistently retrained unless there is an inflection point in the number of uncertain samples predicted, or there is only a delta of information being added iteratively by new samples.

Proxy active learning via an LLM agent

This is the heart of the approach — using an LLM as a proxy for a human validator. The human validator approach we are talking about is Active Labelling

Let’s get an intuitive understanding of Active Labelling:

  • Use an ML model to learn on a sample input dataset, predict on a large set of datapoints
  • For the predictions given on the datapoints, a subject-matter expert (SME) evaluates ‘validity’ of predictions
  • Recursively, new ‘corrected’ samples are added as training data to the ML model
  • The ML model consistently learns/retrains, and makes predictions until the SME is satisfied by the quality of predictions

For Active Labelling to work, there are expectations involved for an SME:

  • when we expect a human expert to ‘validate’ an output sample, the expert understands what the task is
  • a human expert will use judgement to evaluate ‘what else’ definitely belongs to a label L when deciding if a new sample should belong to L

Given these expectations and intuitions, we can ‘mimic’ these using an LLM:

  • give the LLM an ‘understanding’ of what each label means. This can be done by using a larger model to critically evaluate the relationship between {label: data mapped to label} for all labels. In our experiments, this was done using a 32B variant of DeepSeek that was self-hosted.
Giving an LLM the capability to understand ‘why, what, and how’
  • Instead of predicting what is the correct label, leverage the LLM to identify if a prediction is ‘valid’ or ‘invalid’ only (i.e., LLM only has to answer a binary query).
  • Reinforce the idea of what other valid samples for the label look like, i.e., for every pre-emptively predicted label for a sample, dynamically source c closest samples in its training (guaranteed valid) set when prompting for validation.

The result? A cost-effective framework that relies on a fast, cheap classifier to make pre-emptive classifications, and an LLM that verifies these using (meaning of the label + dynamically sourced training samples that are similar to the current classification):

import math

def calculate_uncertainty(clf, sample):
    predicted_probabilities = clf.predict_proba(sample.reshape(1, -1))[0]  # Reshape sample for predict_proba
    uncertainty = -sum(p * math.log(p, 2) for p in predicted_probabilities)
    return uncertainty


def select_informative_samples(clf, data, k):
    informative_samples = []
    uncertainties = [calculate_uncertainty(clf, sample) for sample in data]

    # Sort data by descending order of uncertainty
    sorted_data = sorted(zip(data, uncertainties), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)

    # Get top k samples with highest uncertainty
    for sample, uncertainty in sorted_data[:k]:
        informative_samples.append(sample)

    return informative_samples


def proxy_label(clf, llm_judge, k, testing_data):
    #llm_judge - any LLM with a system prompt tuned for verifying if a sample belongs to a class. Expected output is a bool : True or False. True verifies the original classification, False refutes it
    predicted_classes = clf.predict(testing_data)

    # Select k most informative samples using uncertainty sampling
    informative_samples = select_informative_samples(clf, testing_data, k)

    # List to store correct samples
    voted_data = []

    # Evaluate informative samples with the LLM judge
    for sample in informative_samples:
        sample_index = testing_data.tolist().index(sample.tolist()) # changed from testing_data.index(sample) because of numpy array type issue
        predicted_class = predicted_classes[sample_index]

        # Check if LLM judge agrees with the prediction
        if llm_judge(sample, predicted_class):
            # If correct, add the sample to voted data
            voted_data.append(sample)

    # Return the list of correct samples with proxy labels
    return voted_data

By feeding the valid samples (voted_data) to our classifier under controlled parameters, we achieve the ‘recursive’ part of our algorithm:

Recursive Expert Delegation: R.E.D.

By doing this, we were able to achieve close-to-human-expert validation numbers on controlled multi-class datasets. Experimentally, R.E.D. scales up to 1,000 classes while maintaining a competent degree of accuracy almost on par with human experts (90%+ agreement).

I believe this is a significant achievement in applied ML, and has real-world uses for production-grade expectations of cost, speed, scale, and adaptability. The technical report, publishing later this year, highlights relevant code samples as well as experimental setups used to achieve given results.

All images, unless otherwise noted, are by the author

Interested in more details? Reach out to me over Medium or email for a chat!

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Petrobras makes another gas discovery offshore Colombia

@import url(‘https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@100..900&display=swap’); .ebm-page__main h1, .ebm-page__main h2, .ebm-page__main h3, .ebm-page__main h4, .ebm-page__main h5, .ebm-page__main h6 { font-family: Inter; } body { line-height: 150%; letter-spacing: 0.025em; } button, .ebm-button-wrapper { font-family: Inter; } .label-style { text-transform: uppercase; color: var(–color-grey); font-weight: 600; font-size: 0.75rem; } .caption-style { font-size: 0.75rem; opacity: .6; } #onetrust-pc-sdk [id*=btn-handler], #onetrust-pc-sdk [class*=btn-handler] { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-policy a, #onetrust-pc-sdk a, #ot-pc-content a { color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-sdk .ot-active-menu { border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-accept-btn-handler, #onetrust-banner-sdk #onetrust-reject-all-handler, #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-btn-handler.cookie-setting-link { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk .onetrust-pc-btn-handler { color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) discovered another new gas accumulation with the deepwater Sandia-1 exploratory well in GUA-OFF-0 block about 42 km offshore Colombia in 1,251 m of water. Sandia-1 spudded on June 12, 2026, reaching final depth on July 29, 2026. Proven gas intervals are being evaluated by means of well profiles and will later be characterized by laboratory analyses. The well is 18 km from the Sirius-1 (discoverer) and Sirius-2 (appraisal) wells and 9 km from the Copoazu-1 (discoverer) well, indicating that there is strong gas potential in this area of offshore Colombia, Petrobras said. Petrobras subsidiary Petrobras International Braspetro BV–Sucursal Colombia (PIB-COL; 44.44%) operates the GUA-OFF-0 block on behalf of partner Ecopetrol SA (55.56%).

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OPEC+ approves September output hike, completes 2023 cuts rollback

OPEC+ has approved a fresh increase in oil production quotas for September of roughly 188,000 b/d, completing the phased reversal of voluntary supply cuts first introduced in 2023. The decision, confirmed in an official OPEC statement following a virtual meeting on Aug. 2, 2026, marks the sixth consecutive monthly increase by the group this year. Seven core members of the alliance—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—agreed to raise output targets. The move completes the unwinding of the 1.65-million b/d voluntary supply cut originally agreed in 2023, back when the group still included the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which exited OPEC in May. The group said the adjustment would also give participating countries an opportunity to accelerate compensation for previous overproduction, and it reiterated commitment to the OPEC+ Declaration of Cooperation, with compliance to be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC). While the September hike is now finalized, OPEC+ is widely expected to pause further increases starting in the fourth quarter. Though the group’s official statement gave no explicit guidance on fourth-quarter policy, OPEC+ sources cited by Reuters and analysts—including Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon—say a pause is likely as the alliance assesses market conditions after finishing the restoration of the 2023 cuts. A separate layer of roughly 2 million b/d in cuts, dating to 2022, remains in place and is expected to continue through the end of 2026. The steady stream of monthly increases comes against a backdrop of major market disruption. Ongoing Middle East tensions—including disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz—have complicated the group’s ability to translate higher quotas into actual barrels reaching the market. Russia, in particular, continues to produce below its OPEC+ target of about 9.8 million b/d, with output near 9 million b/d amid repeated Ukrainian drone

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Market Focus: Reading the oil market after the US-Iran MOU collapse

Drawing on nearly three decades of experience in energy trading and risk management, Kessler offers insight into the fallout from escalating Middle East tensions, the breakdown of US-Iran diplomatic efforts, and the critical role of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil supplies traditionally flows. The discussion explores what it would take to achieve a meaningful de-escalation in the region and how market participants are assessing the risks. Kessler argues that restoring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be central to any lasting stability, while Iran’s oil exports and broader economic pressures could influence future negotiations. He also shares his perspective on how OPEC+ is responding to disruptions, the alliance’s efforts to restore production, and the growing competitive pressure it faces from producers outside the Gulf region. Turning to North America, Kessler examines the outlook for US shale producers in a higher-price environment. With crude prices holding above $80/bbl, he discusses signs of increased drilling activity, stronger production growth potential, and the continued emphasis on hedging and capital discipline among operators. The conversation also highlights advances in drilling technology and efficiency that could enable US producers to respond more quickly to market opportunities while managing downside risk. Looking further ahead, the episode considers whether recent disruptions will accelerate a long-term shift away from traditional Middle East oil chokepoints. Kessler discusses the growing role of US, Canadian, African, and Latin American supplies, expanding export infrastructure, and the possibility that today’s high prices could ultimately lead to demand destruction, increased competition, and renewed market oversupply. For anyone following global crude markets, OPEC+ strategy, US shale growth, energy security, and future oil price trends, this conversation provides a timely and thought-provoking outlook on the evolving global energy landscape. About our guest Dennis Kissler, senior vice-president of

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Maurel & Prom to acquire Gran Tierra Energy’s assets in Colombia, Ecuador for $1.33 billion

The company said the predominantly operated portfolio comprises producing assets, development projects, and exploration acreage across Colombia’s Middle Magdalena Valley, Putumayo, and Llanos basins and Ecuador’s Oriente basin. Production is entirely oil-weighted and benefits from established processing, storage, and transportation infrastructure as well as access to multiple export routes. The principal Colombian assets include Acordionero, Costayaco, and Moqueta on the Chaza block, the Suroriente block centered on Cohembi, and the recently acquired interests in Tisquirama and San Roque.  Growth opportunities in Colombia include continued development of Tisquirama, expansion of the Cohembi-Raju area, the Pegasus prospect, and longer-term potential associated with the La Luna formation. In Ecuador, the Chanangue, Charapa, Conejo, Iguana, Perico, and Espejo assets provide a combination of producing fields, discovered resources, and appraisal and exploration opportunities. Maurel & Prom said the assets represent a growth platform supported by existing discoveries and additional potential through waterflood application across the portfolio. For Gran Tierra Energy, the transaction serves as an exit from South America as part of the company’s plan to reduce debt and focus on growth opportunities in Canada and Azerbaijan. Maurel & Prom is a Paris-listed international oil and natural gas exploration and production company majority owned by PT Pertamina Internasional Eksplorasi dan Produksi (PIEP), a subsidiary of Indonesia’s national energy company, PT Pertamina (Persero). Closing, expected by yearend, is subject to shareholder approval, creditor consents, regulatory approvals, and other customary closing conditions. 

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HF Sinclair inks supply deals amid pending segment spinoff, refinery closure

HF Sinclair Corp. has lined up long-term supply arrangements to support the transition of the company’s lubricants and specialties products business in parallel with its recently announced plan to retire its 15,600-b/d base oil refining plant in Mississauga, Ont. After revealing a downstream integration strategy on July 28 involving the proposed closure of its Canadian refining business and transformation of its lubricants and specialties products segment, HF Sinclair confirmed on Aug. 3 that it entered into strategic long-term commercial agreements with suppliers SK On Co. Ltd.’s SK Enmove and Chevron USA Inc.’s Chevron Products Co. to establish a diversified North American base oil supply network. As part of the August agreement that aims to support maintaining base oil coverage after the Canadian refining assets are retired, SK Enmove and Chevron Products will supply HF Sinclair with Group III and Group II base oils, respectively, according to the companies. In return, HF Sinclair said its lubricants and specialties business will serve as a distributor for SK Enmove’s YUBASE Group III base oils in key regional markets in North America, as well as distribute Chevron-branded Group II base oils in Canada and select US regions. The supply arrangements come as part of HF Sinclair’s transformation and separation of its lubricants and specialties segments via the capital markets to create “two independent public companies in a manner that is tax-efficient for HF Sinclair and its shareholders,” according to the operator’s July 28 presentation to investors. HF Sinclair said it expects the new lubricants-specialties company will to drive organic growth and consolidate a highly fragmented global lubricants and specialties market, leading to reduced earnings volatility supported by diversified end markets and a differentiated finished and specialty mix of products. Subject to customary conditions and final approvals, HF Sinclair said the separation of the lubricants-specialty

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Polish data center plans to send its waste heat to the neighbors

As Europe swelters in a heatwave, residents probably don’t want to hear about ways to make their homes even hotter, but that’s what Polish property developer Citylink is talking about, with plans to dump waste heat from a new data center in Wrocław into the municipal district heating network. Citylink is designing the data center so that heat from servers can be recovered instead of being dissipated via cooling systems — and as the data center grows, any increase in computing power will mean more energy available for recovery. The collaboration with local power company Kogeneracja will provide “valuable experience in designing and operating modern data centers, with a particular focus on infrastructure dedicated to AI nodes,” said Michał Starybrat, development director at Citylink.

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The Data Center Industry’s Permission to Build

The data center industry has spent the past several years announcing the future. Gigawatts. AI factories. New regions. New power architectures. Campuses at a scale that would have seemed extraordinary before generative AI reset the industry’s expectations. Now the public has entered the room. Communities are asking harder questions about who pays for electrical infrastructure, where the water comes from, how much noise reaches neighboring properties and what remains locally after construction crews leave. Utilities are being pressed to protect ratepayers from speculative load and costly system upgrades. Elected officials who once treated data centers primarily as economic-development wins are finding that the politics have changed. The defining question is no longer whether demand is real. It is whether the data center industry can keep earning the permission required to build at the scale it has promised. I mean permission in a broader sense than zoning approval, an environmental permit or a signed utility agreement. I mean the political and social room to develop infrastructure measured in hundreds of megawatts and billions of dollars—often in places whose residents have only recently begun to understand what is being proposed around them. That room is narrowing. A Different Kind of Constraint On July 18, opponents organized 142 demonstrations across 42 states in what Reuters described as the first coordinated national protest against the data center buildout. The movement crossed familiar political boundaries, bringing together environmental advocates, rural landowners and residents concerned about power prices, water, noise and the pace of development. A June Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 57% of respondents would oppose a data center in their community. Only 14% said they would be comfortable with one nearby. Those findings deserve the industry’s full attention. New York has imposed a one-year pause on certain environmental approvals for new hyperscale data centers while

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NVIDIA’s Reported $50B Lease and the Nuclear-Powered AI Factory

Aalo and Crusoe Pursue the Nuclear-Powered AI Factory The Aalo-Crusoe partnership addresses the industry’s power problem by bringing power generation directly to the compute. In this case, skipping intermediary power stages such as minimal grid or custom BTM gas turbine solutions and going straight to nuclear. Aalo Atomics and Crusoe said they plan to deploy a Crusoe Spark modular data center running Crusoe Cloud at Idaho National Laboratory in 2027. The proof-of-concept project is intended to demonstrate an AI workload operating on power from an Aalo advanced reactor. Crusoe continues to expand their other data center campus projects. The companies then intend to deploy Aalo Pods, Aalo’s 50-megawatt-electric nuclear power plants, at Crusoe data centers by the end of 2029. Aalo has already begun work on a second reactor beside its initial test unit at the Idaho site. That reactor is expected to produce electricity for the Crusoe installation. On July 4, 2026, Aalo’s zero-power Critical Test Reactor reached criticality, sustaining a nuclear chain reaction without generating commercial electricity. The test reactor contains a full-scale core and components analogous to those planned for the 10-megawatt-electric Aalo-X power reactor being built next door, but it operates before sodium coolant and electricity-generating systems are added. Aalo plans to continue experiments with the Critical Test Reactor to refine its reactor-physics models, characterize control behavior and generate data supporting development and licensing of the full-power Aalo-X system. Advanced nuclear announcements sometimes blur the line between a successful test, an electricity-producing demonstration and a commercially licensed fleet. Aalo has achieved an important technical milestone, but substantial work remains before reactors can be manufactured, licensed, financed and operated at commercial data center sites. The pairing with Crusoe should be noted because it connects a reactor developer with a company that can provide the data center load,

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Data Center Jobs: Engineering, Construction, Commissioning, Sales, Field Service and Facility Tech Jobs Available in Major Data Center Hotspots

Each month Data Center Frontier, in partnership with Pkaza, posts some of the hottest data center career opportunities in the market. Here’s a look at some of the latest data center jobs posted on the Data Center Frontier jobs board, powered by Pkaza Critical Facilities Recruiting. Looking for Data Center Candidates? Check out Pkaza’s Active Candidate / Featured Candidate Hotlist  CFD Engineer – Data Center Mechanical DesignNew York, NY (remote)This position is also available as a remote role anywhere in the US in addition to key markets such as Cedar Rapids, IA; Kansas City, CA or White Plains, NY. Our client is an engineering design and commissioning company that has a national footprint and specializes in MEP critical facilities design. They provide design, commissioning, consulting and management expertise in the critical facilities space. They have a mindset to provide reliability, energy efficiency, and sustainable design expertise when providing these consulting services for enterprise, colocation and hyperscale companies. This career-growth minded opportunity offers exciting projects with leading-edge technology and innovation as well as competitive salaries and benefits. Electrical Commissioning Agent – Data CentersColumbus, OH (limited travel) Non-traveling CxA positions available in: Indianapolis, IN; Cedar Rapids, IA; Phoenix, AZ; Atlanta, GA and Austin, TX. Traveling CxA based really near any major airport, otherwise traveling to: New York, NY; White Plains, NY; Dallas, TX; Richmond, VA; Montvale, NJ; Charlotte, NC; Salt Lake City, UT; Kansas City, MO; Chesterton, IN or Chicago, IL. ***Also looking for a lead EE and ME CxA Agents and CxA PMs.*** This opportunity is with a leading EPC company of data center design / build / commissioning solutions. This company provides a complete life cycle of solutions that are custom-fit to the requirements of their client’s mission-critical facilities. This opportunity provides a career-growth minded role with exciting projects with leading-edge technology

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Navigating Virginia’s Data Center Boom: Policy Shifts, Local Projects, and Future Challenges

Virginia’s newest high profile data center story is no longer the announcement of the next generation AI data center campus, it is now how the state is beginning to set the trend for legislative process to protect its communities while still encouraging the data center industry development. On August 3, state Senators Richard Stuart, a Republican, and Russet Perry, a Democrat, called on Gov. Abigail Spanberger to convene a special legislative session to address groundwater strain. Their request followed a state study warning that eastern Virginia’s groundwater supply is constrained and that large new industrial withdrawals may be difficult to sustain. The debate has expanded into calls for a broader pause: Senator Glen Sturtevant has asked for an immediate statewide moratorium on new data center development, while Senate President Pro Tempore Louise Lucas has said such a moratorium deserves serious consideration. Those proposals are not yet law, but they are the clearest indication that Virginia’s policy discussion has moved beyond incremental regulation. The Commonwealth spent years treating data centers primarily as an economic-development and tax-base success. It is now evaluating them simultaneously as power, water, land-use, air-quality and ratepayer issues. That shift is especially important for projects outside Northern Virginia, where developers are increasingly pursuing large sites in communities with less experience reviewing hyperscale infrastructure. The calls for a special session arrive only weeks after a significant package of data center laws and budget provisions took effect July 1. Virginia’s new budget established what the administration describes as a first-of-its-kind electricity consumption tax on data centers. The charge is 1.1 cents per kilowatt-hour, began July 1 and is capped at $600 million in annual collections, with excess revenue refunded to data center taxpayers. The compromise preserved Virginia’s sales-and-use-tax exemption for qualifying data center equipment, avoiding the abrupt repeal sought by

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Land and Expand: The Gigawatt Credibility Test

The midsummer wave of U.S. data center development is not defined by a single market, developer or technology company. It stretches from the Georgia coast to West Texas, from the industrial Midwest to the Mississippi River. What links the projects announced since early June is not just their scale, it is the realization that scale alone is not enough. Developers are still announcing multibillion-dollar campuses and gigawatt power requirements, but the language surrounding those announcements has changed. Companies are emphasizing who will pay for new generation and transmission, how cooling systems will limit water consumption, what communities will receive beyond temporary construction employment, and when contracted customers will begin occupying capacity. In several cases, the announcement is less about acquiring land than proving that a project has become commercially and electrically credible.  As we have seen progressing through the industry, the latest announcements point toward campuses that combine compute, power, financing and community agreements in one development package. OpenAI Goes Direct in Georgia OpenAI, on July 22 disclosed Project Camellia, a long-term data center development in Effingham County, Georgia. OpenAI said it is designing and developing the campus itself and has contracted with Georgia Power for 3.2 gigawatts of electricity, to be delivered in phases from 2028 through 2032. The project has been reported as a roughly $20 billion investment on approximately 1,400 acres, making it one of the largest individual data center proposals currently moving through the U.S. pipeline. Project Camellia is notable not only for its size but for OpenAI’s more direct role. The company has traditionally secured capacity through cloud providers and infrastructure partners. By taking responsibility for designing and developing the Georgia campus, OpenAI is signaling that control over power, schedule and facility design has become strategically important as AI companies compete for increasingly scarce large-scale

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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