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R.E.D.: Scaling Text Classification with Expert Delegation

With the new age of problem-solving augmented by Large Language Models (LLMs), only a handful of problems remain that have subpar solutions. Most classification problems (at a PoC level) can be solved by leveraging LLMs at 70–90% Precision/F1 with just good prompt engineering techniques, as well as adaptive in-context-learning (ICL) examples. What happens when you want to consistently achieve performance higher than that — when prompt engineering no longer suffices? The classification conundrum Text classification is one of the oldest and most well-understood examples of supervised learning. Given this premise, it should really not be hard to build robust, well-performing classifiers that handle a large number of input classes, right…? Welp. It is. It actually has to do a lot more with the ‘constraints’ that the algorithm is generally expected to work under: low amount of training data per class high classification accuracy (that plummets as you add more classes) possible addition of new classes to an existing subset of classes quick training/inference cost-effectiveness (potentially) really large number of training classes (potentially) endless required retraining of some classes due to data drift, etc. Ever tried building a classifier beyond a few dozen classes under these conditions? (I mean, even GPT could probably do a great job up to ~30 text classes with just a few samples…) Considering you take the GPT route — If you have more than a couple dozen classes or a sizeable amount of data to be classified, you are gonna have to reach deep into your pockets with the system prompt, user prompt, few shot example tokens that you will need to classify one sample. That is after making peace with the throughput of the API, even if you are running async queries. In applied ML, problems like these are generally tricky to solve since they don’t fully satisfy the requirements of supervised learning or aren’t cheap/fast enough to be run via an LLM. This particular pain point is what the R.E.D algorithm addresses: semi-supervised learning, when the training data per class is not enough to build (quasi)traditional classifiers. The R.E.D. algorithm R.E.D: Recursive Expert Delegation is a novel framework that changes how we approach text classification. This is an applied ML paradigm — i.e., there is no fundamentally different architecture to what exists, but its a highlight reel of ideas that work best to build something that is practical and scalable. In this post, we will be working through a specific example where we have a large number of text classes (100–1000), each class only has few samples (30–100), and there are a non-trivial number of samples to classify (10,000–100,000). We approach this as a semi-supervised learning problem via R.E.D. Let’s dive in. How it works simple representation of what R.E.D. does Instead of having a single classifier classify between a large number of classes, R.E.D. intelligently: Divides and conquers — Break the label space (large number of input labels) into multiple subsets of labels. This is a greedy label subset formation approach. Learns efficiently — Trains specialized classifiers for each subset. This step focuses on building a classifier that oversamples on noise, where noise is intelligently modeled as data from other subsets. Delegates to an expert — Employes LLMs as expert oracles for specific label validation and correction only, similar to having a team of domain experts. Using an LLM as a proxy, it empirically ‘mimics’ how a human expert validates an output. Recursive retraining — Continuously retrains with fresh samples added back from the expert until there are no more samples to be added/a saturation from information gain is achieved The intuition behind it is not very hard to grasp: Active Learning employs humans as domain experts to consistently ‘correct’ or ‘validate’ the outputs from an ML model, with continuous training. This stops when the model achieves acceptable performance. We intuit and rebrand the same, with a few clever innovations that will be detailed in a research pre-print later. Let’s take a deeper look… Greedy subset selection with least similar elements When the number of input labels (classes) is high, the complexity of learning a linear decision boundary between classes increases. As such, the quality of the classifier deteriorates as the number of classes increases. This is especially true when the classifier does not have enough samples to learn from — i.e. each of the training classes has only a few samples. This is very reflective of a real-world scenario, and the primary motivation behind the creation of R.E.D. Some ways of improving a classifier’s performance under these constraints: Restrict the number of classes a classifier needs to classify between Make the decision boundary between classes clearer, i.e., train the classifier on highly dissimilar classes Greedy Subset Selection does exactly this — since the scope of the problem is Text Classification, we form embeddings of the training labels, reduce their dimensionality via UMAP, then form S subsets from them. Each of the S subsets has elements as n training labels. We pick training labels greedily, ensuring that every label we pick for the subset is the most dissimilar label w.r.t. the other labels that exist in the subset: import numpy as np from sklearn.metrics.pairwise import cosine_similarity def avg_embedding(candidate_embeddings): return np.mean(candidate_embeddings, axis=0) def get_least_similar_embedding(target_embedding, candidate_embeddings): similarities = cosine_similarity(target_embedding, candidate_embeddings) least_similar_index = np.argmin(similarities) # Use argmin to find the index of the minimum least_similar_element = candidate_embeddings[least_similar_index] return least_similar_element def get_embedding_class(embedding, embedding_map): reverse_embedding_map = {value: key for key, value in embedding_map.items()} return reverse_embedding_map.get(embedding) # Use .get() to handle missing keys gracefully def select_subsets(embeddings, n): visited = {cls: False for cls in embeddings.keys()} subsets = [] current_subset = [] while any(not visited[cls] for cls in visited): for cls, average_embedding in embeddings.items(): if not current_subset: current_subset.append(average_embedding) visited[cls] = True elif len(current_subset) >= n: subsets.append(current_subset.copy()) current_subset = [] else: subset_average = avg_embedding(current_subset) remaining_embeddings = [emb for cls_, emb in embeddings.items() if not visited[cls_]] if not remaining_embeddings: break # handle edge case least_similar = get_least_similar_embedding(target_embedding=subset_average, candidate_embeddings=remaining_embeddings) visited_class = get_embedding_class(least_similar, embeddings) if visited_class is not None: visited[visited_class] = True current_subset.append(least_similar) if current_subset: # Add any remaining elements in current_subset subsets.append(current_subset) return subsets the result of this greedy subset sampling is all the training labels clearly boxed into subsets, where each subset has at most only n classes. This inherently makes the job of a classifier easier, compared to the original S classes it would have to classify between otherwise! Semi-supervised classification with noise oversampling Cascade this after the initial label subset formation — i.e., this classifier is only classifying between a given subset of classes. Picture this: when you have low amounts of training data, you absolutely cannot create a hold-out set that is meaningful for evaluation. Should you do it at all? How do you know if your classifier is working well? We approached this problem slightly differently — we defined the fundamental job of a semi-supervised classifier to be pre-emptive classification of a sample. This means that regardless of what a sample gets classified as it will be ‘verified’ and ‘corrected’ at a later stage: this classifier only needs to identify what needs to be verified. As such, we created a design for how it would treat its data: n+1 classes, where the last class is noise noise: data from classes that are NOT in the current classifier’s purview. The noise class is oversampled to be 2x the average size of the data for the classifier’s labels Oversampling on noise is a faux-safety measure, to ensure that adjacent data that belongs to another class is most likely predicted as noise instead of slipping through for verification. How do you check if this classifier is working well — in our experiments, we define this as the number of ‘uncertain’ samples in a classifier’s prediction. Using uncertainty sampling and information gain principles, we were effectively able to gauge if a classifier is ‘learning’ or not, which acts as a pointer towards classification performance. This classifier is consistently retrained unless there is an inflection point in the number of uncertain samples predicted, or there is only a delta of information being added iteratively by new samples. Proxy active learning via an LLM agent This is the heart of the approach — using an LLM as a proxy for a human validator. The human validator approach we are talking about is Active Labelling Let’s get an intuitive understanding of Active Labelling: Use an ML model to learn on a sample input dataset, predict on a large set of datapoints For the predictions given on the datapoints, a subject-matter expert (SME) evaluates ‘validity’ of predictions Recursively, new ‘corrected’ samples are added as training data to the ML model The ML model consistently learns/retrains, and makes predictions until the SME is satisfied by the quality of predictions For Active Labelling to work, there are expectations involved for an SME: when we expect a human expert to ‘validate’ an output sample, the expert understands what the task is a human expert will use judgement to evaluate ‘what else’ definitely belongs to a label L when deciding if a new sample should belong to L Given these expectations and intuitions, we can ‘mimic’ these using an LLM: give the LLM an ‘understanding’ of what each label means. This can be done by using a larger model to critically evaluate the relationship between {label: data mapped to label} for all labels. In our experiments, this was done using a 32B variant of DeepSeek that was self-hosted. Giving an LLM the capability to understand ‘why, what, and how’ Instead of predicting what is the correct label, leverage the LLM to identify if a prediction is ‘valid’ or ‘invalid’ only (i.e., LLM only has to answer a binary query). Reinforce the idea of what other valid samples for the label look like, i.e., for every pre-emptively predicted label for a sample, dynamically source c closest samples in its training (guaranteed valid) set when prompting for validation. The result? A cost-effective framework that relies on a fast, cheap classifier to make pre-emptive classifications, and an LLM that verifies these using (meaning of the label + dynamically sourced training samples that are similar to the current classification): import math def calculate_uncertainty(clf, sample): predicted_probabilities = clf.predict_proba(sample.reshape(1, -1))[0] # Reshape sample for predict_proba uncertainty = -sum(p * math.log(p, 2) for p in predicted_probabilities) return uncertainty def select_informative_samples(clf, data, k): informative_samples = [] uncertainties = [calculate_uncertainty(clf, sample) for sample in data] # Sort data by descending order of uncertainty sorted_data = sorted(zip(data, uncertainties), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) # Get top k samples with highest uncertainty for sample, uncertainty in sorted_data[:k]: informative_samples.append(sample) return informative_samples def proxy_label(clf, llm_judge, k, testing_data): #llm_judge – any LLM with a system prompt tuned for verifying if a sample belongs to a class. Expected output is a bool : True or False. True verifies the original classification, False refutes it predicted_classes = clf.predict(testing_data) # Select k most informative samples using uncertainty sampling informative_samples = select_informative_samples(clf, testing_data, k) # List to store correct samples voted_data = [] # Evaluate informative samples with the LLM judge for sample in informative_samples: sample_index = testing_data.tolist().index(sample.tolist()) # changed from testing_data.index(sample) because of numpy array type issue predicted_class = predicted_classes[sample_index] # Check if LLM judge agrees with the prediction if llm_judge(sample, predicted_class): # If correct, add the sample to voted data voted_data.append(sample) # Return the list of correct samples with proxy labels return voted_data By feeding the valid samples (voted_data) to our classifier under controlled parameters, we achieve the ‘recursive’ part of our algorithm: Recursive Expert Delegation: R.E.D. By doing this, we were able to achieve close-to-human-expert validation numbers on controlled multi-class datasets. Experimentally, R.E.D. scales up to 1,000 classes while maintaining a competent degree of accuracy almost on par with human experts (90%+ agreement). I believe this is a significant achievement in applied ML, and has real-world uses for production-grade expectations of cost, speed, scale, and adaptability. The technical report, publishing later this year, highlights relevant code samples as well as experimental setups used to achieve given results. All images, unless otherwise noted, are by the author Interested in more details? Reach out to me over Medium or email for a chat!

With the new age of problem-solving augmented by Large Language Models (LLMs), only a handful of problems remain that have subpar solutions. Most classification problems (at a PoC level) can be solved by leveraging LLMs at 70–90% Precision/F1 with just good prompt engineering techniques, as well as adaptive in-context-learning (ICL) examples.

What happens when you want to consistently achieve performance higher than that — when prompt engineering no longer suffices?

The classification conundrum

Text classification is one of the oldest and most well-understood examples of supervised learning. Given this premise, it should really not be hard to build robust, well-performing classifiers that handle a large number of input classes, right…?

Welp. It is.

It actually has to do a lot more with the ‘constraints’ that the algorithm is generally expected to work under:

  • low amount of training data per class
  • high classification accuracy (that plummets as you add more classes)
  • possible addition of new classes to an existing subset of classes
  • quick training/inference
  • cost-effectiveness
  • (potentially) really large number of training classes
  • (potentially) endless required retraining of some classes due to data drift, etc.

Ever tried building a classifier beyond a few dozen classes under these conditions? (I mean, even GPT could probably do a great job up to ~30 text classes with just a few samples…)

Considering you take the GPT route — If you have more than a couple dozen classes or a sizeable amount of data to be classified, you are gonna have to reach deep into your pockets with the system prompt, user prompt, few shot example tokens that you will need to classify one sample. That is after making peace with the throughput of the API, even if you are running async queries.

In applied ML, problems like these are generally tricky to solve since they don’t fully satisfy the requirements of supervised learning or aren’t cheap/fast enough to be run via an LLM. This particular pain point is what the R.E.D algorithm addresses: semi-supervised learning, when the training data per class is not enough to build (quasi)traditional classifiers.

The R.E.D. algorithm

R.E.D: Recursive Expert Delegation is a novel framework that changes how we approach text classification. This is an applied ML paradigm — i.e., there is no fundamentally different architecture to what exists, but its a highlight reel of ideas that work best to build something that is practical and scalable.

In this post, we will be working through a specific example where we have a large number of text classes (100–1000), each class only has few samples (30–100), and there are a non-trivial number of samples to classify (10,000–100,000). We approach this as a semi-supervised learning problem via R.E.D.

Let’s dive in.

How it works

simple representation of what R.E.D. does

Instead of having a single classifier classify between a large number of classes, R.E.D. intelligently:

  1. Divides and conquers — Break the label space (large number of input labels) into multiple subsets of labels. This is a greedy label subset formation approach.
  2. Learns efficiently — Trains specialized classifiers for each subset. This step focuses on building a classifier that oversamples on noise, where noise is intelligently modeled as data from other subsets.
  3. Delegates to an expert — Employes LLMs as expert oracles for specific label validation and correction only, similar to having a team of domain experts. Using an LLM as a proxy, it empirically ‘mimics’ how a human expert validates an output.
  4. Recursive retraining — Continuously retrains with fresh samples added back from the expert until there are no more samples to be added/a saturation from information gain is achieved

The intuition behind it is not very hard to grasp: Active Learning employs humans as domain experts to consistently ‘correct’ or ‘validate’ the outputs from an ML model, with continuous training. This stops when the model achieves acceptable performance. We intuit and rebrand the same, with a few clever innovations that will be detailed in a research pre-print later.

Let’s take a deeper look…

Greedy subset selection with least similar elements

When the number of input labels (classes) is high, the complexity of learning a linear decision boundary between classes increases. As such, the quality of the classifier deteriorates as the number of classes increases. This is especially true when the classifier does not have enough samples to learn from — i.e. each of the training classes has only a few samples.

This is very reflective of a real-world scenario, and the primary motivation behind the creation of R.E.D.

Some ways of improving a classifier’s performance under these constraints:

  • Restrict the number of classes a classifier needs to classify between
  • Make the decision boundary between classes clearer, i.e., train the classifier on highly dissimilar classes

Greedy Subset Selection does exactly this — since the scope of the problem is Text Classification, we form embeddings of the training labels, reduce their dimensionality via UMAP, then form S subsets from them. Each of the subsets has elements as training labels. We pick training labels greedily, ensuring that every label we pick for the subset is the most dissimilar label w.r.t. the other labels that exist in the subset:

import numpy as np
from sklearn.metrics.pairwise import cosine_similarity


def avg_embedding(candidate_embeddings):
    return np.mean(candidate_embeddings, axis=0)

def get_least_similar_embedding(target_embedding, candidate_embeddings):
    similarities = cosine_similarity(target_embedding, candidate_embeddings)
    least_similar_index = np.argmin(similarities)  # Use argmin to find the index of the minimum
    least_similar_element = candidate_embeddings[least_similar_index]
    return least_similar_element


def get_embedding_class(embedding, embedding_map):
    reverse_embedding_map = {value: key for key, value in embedding_map.items()}
    return reverse_embedding_map.get(embedding)  # Use .get() to handle missing keys gracefully


def select_subsets(embeddings, n):
    visited = {cls: False for cls in embeddings.keys()}
    subsets = []
    current_subset = []

    while any(not visited[cls] for cls in visited):
        for cls, average_embedding in embeddings.items():
            if not current_subset:
                current_subset.append(average_embedding)
                visited[cls] = True
            elif len(current_subset) >= n:
                subsets.append(current_subset.copy())
                current_subset = []
            else:
                subset_average = avg_embedding(current_subset)
                remaining_embeddings = [emb for cls_, emb in embeddings.items() if not visited[cls_]]
                if not remaining_embeddings:
                    break # handle edge case
                
                least_similar = get_least_similar_embedding(target_embedding=subset_average, candidate_embeddings=remaining_embeddings)

                visited_class = get_embedding_class(least_similar, embeddings)

                
                if visited_class is not None:
                  visited[visited_class] = True


                current_subset.append(least_similar)
    
    if current_subset:  # Add any remaining elements in current_subset
        subsets.append(current_subset)
        

    return subsets

the result of this greedy subset sampling is all the training labels clearly boxed into subsets, where each subset has at most only classes. This inherently makes the job of a classifier easier, compared to the original classes it would have to classify between otherwise!

Semi-supervised classification with noise oversampling

Cascade this after the initial label subset formation — i.e., this classifier is only classifying between a given subset of classes.

Picture this: when you have low amounts of training data, you absolutely cannot create a hold-out set that is meaningful for evaluation. Should you do it at all? How do you know if your classifier is working well?

We approached this problem slightly differently — we defined the fundamental job of a semi-supervised classifier to be pre-emptive classification of a sample. This means that regardless of what a sample gets classified as it will be ‘verified’ and ‘corrected’ at a later stage: this classifier only needs to identify what needs to be verified.

As such, we created a design for how it would treat its data:

  • n+1 classes, where the last class is noise
  • noise: data from classes that are NOT in the current classifier’s purview. The noise class is oversampled to be 2x the average size of the data for the classifier’s labels

Oversampling on noise is a faux-safety measure, to ensure that adjacent data that belongs to another class is most likely predicted as noise instead of slipping through for verification.

How do you check if this classifier is working well — in our experiments, we define this as the number of ‘uncertain’ samples in a classifier’s prediction. Using uncertainty sampling and information gain principles, we were effectively able to gauge if a classifier is ‘learning’ or not, which acts as a pointer towards classification performance. This classifier is consistently retrained unless there is an inflection point in the number of uncertain samples predicted, or there is only a delta of information being added iteratively by new samples.

Proxy active learning via an LLM agent

This is the heart of the approach — using an LLM as a proxy for a human validator. The human validator approach we are talking about is Active Labelling

Let’s get an intuitive understanding of Active Labelling:

  • Use an ML model to learn on a sample input dataset, predict on a large set of datapoints
  • For the predictions given on the datapoints, a subject-matter expert (SME) evaluates ‘validity’ of predictions
  • Recursively, new ‘corrected’ samples are added as training data to the ML model
  • The ML model consistently learns/retrains, and makes predictions until the SME is satisfied by the quality of predictions

For Active Labelling to work, there are expectations involved for an SME:

  • when we expect a human expert to ‘validate’ an output sample, the expert understands what the task is
  • a human expert will use judgement to evaluate ‘what else’ definitely belongs to a label L when deciding if a new sample should belong to L

Given these expectations and intuitions, we can ‘mimic’ these using an LLM:

  • give the LLM an ‘understanding’ of what each label means. This can be done by using a larger model to critically evaluate the relationship between {label: data mapped to label} for all labels. In our experiments, this was done using a 32B variant of DeepSeek that was self-hosted.
Giving an LLM the capability to understand ‘why, what, and how’
  • Instead of predicting what is the correct label, leverage the LLM to identify if a prediction is ‘valid’ or ‘invalid’ only (i.e., LLM only has to answer a binary query).
  • Reinforce the idea of what other valid samples for the label look like, i.e., for every pre-emptively predicted label for a sample, dynamically source c closest samples in its training (guaranteed valid) set when prompting for validation.

The result? A cost-effective framework that relies on a fast, cheap classifier to make pre-emptive classifications, and an LLM that verifies these using (meaning of the label + dynamically sourced training samples that are similar to the current classification):

import math

def calculate_uncertainty(clf, sample):
    predicted_probabilities = clf.predict_proba(sample.reshape(1, -1))[0]  # Reshape sample for predict_proba
    uncertainty = -sum(p * math.log(p, 2) for p in predicted_probabilities)
    return uncertainty


def select_informative_samples(clf, data, k):
    informative_samples = []
    uncertainties = [calculate_uncertainty(clf, sample) for sample in data]

    # Sort data by descending order of uncertainty
    sorted_data = sorted(zip(data, uncertainties), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)

    # Get top k samples with highest uncertainty
    for sample, uncertainty in sorted_data[:k]:
        informative_samples.append(sample)

    return informative_samples


def proxy_label(clf, llm_judge, k, testing_data):
    #llm_judge - any LLM with a system prompt tuned for verifying if a sample belongs to a class. Expected output is a bool : True or False. True verifies the original classification, False refutes it
    predicted_classes = clf.predict(testing_data)

    # Select k most informative samples using uncertainty sampling
    informative_samples = select_informative_samples(clf, testing_data, k)

    # List to store correct samples
    voted_data = []

    # Evaluate informative samples with the LLM judge
    for sample in informative_samples:
        sample_index = testing_data.tolist().index(sample.tolist()) # changed from testing_data.index(sample) because of numpy array type issue
        predicted_class = predicted_classes[sample_index]

        # Check if LLM judge agrees with the prediction
        if llm_judge(sample, predicted_class):
            # If correct, add the sample to voted data
            voted_data.append(sample)

    # Return the list of correct samples with proxy labels
    return voted_data

By feeding the valid samples (voted_data) to our classifier under controlled parameters, we achieve the ‘recursive’ part of our algorithm:

Recursive Expert Delegation: R.E.D.

By doing this, we were able to achieve close-to-human-expert validation numbers on controlled multi-class datasets. Experimentally, R.E.D. scales up to 1,000 classes while maintaining a competent degree of accuracy almost on par with human experts (90%+ agreement).

I believe this is a significant achievement in applied ML, and has real-world uses for production-grade expectations of cost, speed, scale, and adaptability. The technical report, publishing later this year, highlights relevant code samples as well as experimental setups used to achieve given results.

All images, unless otherwise noted, are by the author

Interested in more details? Reach out to me over Medium or email for a chat!

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Greece Warns Shipowners Against Sailing Near Iran Coast

Greece, home to the world’s largest oil tanker fleet, told the nation’s vessel owners to do what they can to stay away from Iran’s coast — a task that is all but impossible for those entering the Persian Gulf to collect cargoes of Middle East crude. Shipowners were directed to sail closer to the United Arab Emirates and Oman when transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to two advisories seen by Bloomberg. They were issued by the Greek shipping ministry to local shipowner associations on Jan. 27 and 29. The advisories said more warships were operating near the strait and warned that the European Union’s latest sanctions on Iran risked further inflaming tensions around Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and southern parts of the Red Sea. They were sent to the Hellenic Chamber of Shipping, the Union of Greek Shipowners and the Hellenic Shortsea Shipowners Association. A spokesman for Greece’s shipping ministry confirmed the notices had been sent. The global shipping community and oil traders are closely watching developments in the Middle East after the US dispatched an aircraft-carrier strike group to the region. President Donald Trump said he hoped he would not have to use it against Iran, which monitoring groups have accused of killing thousands of people during recent protests. The Strait of Hormuz is critical to the global oil supply, with roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne crude passing through the corridor. Much of that oil is transported on Greek-owned vessels. Greece is the biggest tanker owner by tonnage, according to Clarkson Research Services, a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker. WHAT DO YOU THINK? Generated by readers, the comments included herein do not reflect the views and opinions of Rigzone. All comments are subject to editorial review. Off-topic, inappropriate or insulting comments will be removed.

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Exxon, Chevron Lift Oil Production, Blunting Price Drop

Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. surpassed profit expectations as higher oil production helped offset the blow from lower crude prices.  The titans of the US oil industry expanded output from the US Permian Basin, Guyana and other regions. For Exxon, full-year production hit a 40-year high while Chevron benefited from the integration of its $48 billion takeover of Hess Corp. The outperformance comes as major US drillers face growing pressure to assist in the Trump administration’s aspiration to revive the Venezuelan oil sector after the ouster of strongman Nicolas Maduro.   Chevron intends to finance a 50% increase in its Venezuelan oil production with cash from oil sales rather than committing new capital to the country, Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner said during an interview.  As the only major oil explorer with ongoing operations in the South American nation, Chevron has a leg up on rivals that departed years ago during a nationalization campaign by Maduro’s predecessor, the late former leader Hugo Chavez. Late Thursday, The Trump administration took steps to begin relaxing some of the punishing sanctions that have isolated the Venezuelan energy industry. The move gives other US companies the go-ahead to work with the state-controlled oil producer, with restrictions such as a prohibition on transactions with Chinese-tied entities.   Exxon’s adjusted fourth-quarter net income of $1.71 a share was 2 cents higher than the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Chevron earned $1.52 a share, 14 cents higher than expected. For both companies, debt ratios crept higher during the final three months of 2025. Exxon shares fell 1% at 9:35 a.m. in New York. Chevron rose 1.1%. “We’re capturing more value from every barrel and molecule we produce and building growth platforms at scale,” Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said in a statement. The strategy is “creating a

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2026 US power sector outlook

In 2026, the electric utility sector faces unprecedented load growth that is challenging the physical infrastructure of the grid and the regulatory and market structures that have guided its development for decades. Federal and state authorities are at odds over who will manage this growth as officials come under pressure over rising costs. At the same time, the Trump administration has moved to exert more direct control over the power system under the banner of “energy dominance.” The stories in our 2026 outlook series below comprise a road map to the year ahead, including what to expect from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the impacts of new federal policy on renewables and other resources, and technological advances that promise to unlock new efficiencies. We’re tracking the biggest trends rewriting the rules of how the U.S. produces and delivers power heading into what is sure to be a defining year for energy. 

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Customers, don’t expect electric bill relief in 2026: ‘The cake is baked.’

Listen to the article 16 min This audio is auto-generated. Please let us know if you have feedback. Rising energy demand, inflation, grid investment, extreme weather and volatile fuel costs are increasing the cost of electricity faster than many households can keep up, and there are no easy fixes, experts say. Mitigating the problem would require threading a needle of policy alternatives, but even with the right policies, it will take time to reduce customer energy burdens. The U.S. Energy Information Administration puts the national average residential price per kilowatt hour in 2026 at 18 cents, up approximately 37% from 2020. “I don’t see hidden costs that can be suddenly squeezed out of the system,” said Ray Gifford, managing partner of Wilkinson Barker Knauer’s Denver office and former chair of the Colorado Public Utilities Commission. “You are talking about an industry where most of the costs are fixed, and the assets are long-lived.” Energy affordability has recently become politically salient, but for many low-income people, “the energy affordability crisis is not new,” said Joe Daniel, a principal on the Rocky Mountain Institute’s carbon free electricity team. In 2017, 25% of all U.S. households — more than 30 million — faced a high energy burden, defined as paying more than 6% of income on energy bills, according to a report from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. For the poorest, it can be much higher. Households making less than 30% of area median income paid about 11% of their income for electricity alone, according to data from the Department of Energy covering the years 2018 to 2022.  The Department of Energy’s Low-Income Energy Affordability Data Tool shows households’ energy burden in the lower 48 states and Washington, D.C. The data is based on the American Community Survey 5-year Estimates for 2018-2022. Retrieved from

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How Robotics Is Re-Engineering Data Center Construction and Operations

Physical AI: A Reusable Robotics Stack for Data Center Operations This is where the recent collaboration between Multiply Labs and NVIDIA becomes relevant, even though the application is biomanufacturing rather than data centers. Multiply Labs has outlined a robotics approach built on three core elements: Digital twins using NVIDIA Isaac Sim to model hardware and validate changes in simulation before deployment. Foundation-model-based skill learning via NVIDIA Isaac GR00T, enabling robots to generalize tasks rather than rely on brittle, hard-coded behaviors. Perception pipelines including FoundationPose and FoundationStereo, that convert expert demonstrations into structured training data. Taken together, this represents a reusable blueprint for data center robotics. Applying the Lesson to Data Center Environments The same physical-AI techniques now being applied in lab and manufacturing environments map cleanly onto the realities of data center operations, particularly where safety, uptime, and variability intersect. Digital-twin-first deployment Before a robot ever enters a live data hall, it needs to be trained in simulation. That means modeling aisle geometry, obstacles, rack layouts, reflective surfaces, and lighting variation; along with “what if” scenarios such as blocked aisles, emergency egress conditions, ladders left in place, or spill events. Simulation-first workflows make it possible to validate behavior and edge cases before introducing any new system into a production environment. Skill learning beats hard-coded rules Data centers appear structured, but in practice they are full of variability: temporary cabling, staged parts, mixed-vendor racks, and countless human exceptions. Foundation-model approaches to manipulation are designed to generalize across that messiness far better than traditional rule-based automation, which tends to break when conditions drift even slightly from the expected state. Imitation learning captures tribal knowledge Many operational tasks rely on tacit expertise developed over years in the field, such as how to manage stiff patch cords, visually confirm latch engagement, or stage a

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Applied Digital CEO Wes Cummins On the Hard Part of the AI Boom: Execution

Designing for What Comes After the Current AI Cycle Applied Digital’s design philosophy starts with a premise many developers still resist: today’s density assumptions may not hold. “We’re designing for maximum flexibility for the future—higher density power, lower density power, higher voltage delivery, and more floor space,” Cummins said. “It’s counterintuitive because densities are going up, but we don’t know what comes next.” That choice – to allocate more floor space even as rack densities climb – signals a long-view approach. Facilities are engineered to accommodate shifts in voltage, cooling topology, and customer requirements without forcing wholesale retrofits. Higher-voltage delivery, mixed cooling configurations, and adaptable data halls are baked in from the start. The goal is not to predict the future perfectly, Cummins stressed, but to avoid painting infrastructure into a corner. Supply Chain as Competitive Advantage If flexibility is the design thesis, supply chain control is the execution weapon. “It’s a huge advantage that we locked in our MEP supply chain 18 to 24 months ago,” Cummins said. “It’s a tight environment, and more timelines are going to get missed in 2026 because of it.” Applied Digital moved early to secure long-lead mechanical, electrical, and plumbing components; well before demand pressure fully rippled through transformers, switchgear, chillers, generators, and breakers. That foresight now underpins the company’s ability to make credible delivery commitments while competitors confront procurement bottlenecks. Cummins was blunt: many delays won’t stem from poor planning, but from simple unavailability. From 100 MW to 700 MW Without Losing Control The past year marked a structural pivot for Applied Digital. What began as a single, 100-megawatt “field of dreams” facility in North Dakota has become more than 700 MW under construction, with expansion still ahead. “A hundred megawatts used to be considered scale,” Cummins said. “Now we’re at 700

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From Silicon to Cooling: Dell’Oro Maps the AI Data Center Buildout

For much of the past decade, data center growth could be measured in incremental gains: another efficiency point here, another capacity tranche there. That era is over. According to a cascade of recent research from Dell’Oro Group, the AI investment cycle has crossed into a new phase, one defined less by experimentation and more by industrial-scale execution. Across servers, networks, power, and cooling, Dell’Oro’s latest data points to a market being reshaped end-to-end by AI workloads which are pulling forward capital spending, redefining bill-of-material assumptions, and forcing architectural transitions that are rapidly becoming non-negotiable. Capex Becomes the Signal The clearest indicator of the shift is spending. Dell’Oro reported that worldwide data center capital expenditures rose 59 percent year-over-year in 3Q 2025, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Importantly, this is no longer a narrow, training-centric surge. “The Top 4 US cloud service providers—Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—continue to raise data center capex expectations for 2025, supported by increased investments in both AI and general-purpose infrastructure,” said Baron Fung, Senior Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. He added that Oracle is on track to double its data center capex as it expands capacity for the Stargate project. “What is notable this cycle is not just the pace of spending, but the expanding scope of investment,” Fung said. Hyperscalers are now scaling accelerated compute, general-purpose servers, and the supporting infrastructure required to deploy AI at production scale, while simultaneously applying tighter discipline around asset lifecycles and depreciation to preserve cash flow. The result is a capex environment that looks less speculative and more structural, with investment signals extending well into 2026. Accelerators Redefine the Hardware Stack At the component level, the AI effect is even more pronounced. Dell’Oro found that global data center server and storage component revenue jumped 40 percent

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Rethinking Water in the AI Data Center Era

Finding Water by Eliminating Waste: Leakage as a Hidden Demand Driver ION Water and Meta frame leakage not as a marginal efficiency issue, but as one of the largest and least visible sources of water demand. According to the release, more than half of the water paid for at some properties can be lost to “invisible leaks,” including running toilets, aging water heaters, and faulty fixtures that go undetected for extended periods. ION’s platform is designed to surface that hidden demand. By monitoring water consumption at the unit level, the system flags anomalies in real time and directs maintenance teams to specific fixtures, rather than entire buildings. The company says this approach can reduce leak-driven water waste by as much as 60%. This represents an important evolution in how hyperscalers defend and contextualize their water footprints: Instead of focusing solely on their own direct WUE metrics, operators are investing in demand reduction within the same watershed where their data centers operate. That shift reframes the narrative from simply managing active water consumption to actively helping stabilize stressed local water systems. The Accounting Shift: Volumetric Water Benefits (VWB) The release explicitly positions the project as a model for Volumetric Water Benefits (VWB) initiatives, projects intended to deliver measurable environmental gains while also producing operational and financial benefits for underserved communities. This framing aligns with a broader stewardship accounting movement promoted by organizations such as the World Resources Institute, which has developed Volumetric Water Benefit Accounting (VWBA) as a standardized method for quantifying and valuing watershed-scale benefits. Meta is explicit that the project supports its water-positive commitment tied to its Temple, Texas data center community. The company has set a 2030 goal to restore more water than it consumes across its global operations and has increasingly emphasized “water stewardship in our data center

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Microsoft and Meta’s Earnings Week Put the AI Data Center Cycle in Sharp Relief

If you’re trying to understand where the hyperscalers really are in the AI buildout, beyond the glossy campus renders and “superintelligence” rhetoric, this week’s earnings calls from Microsoft and Meta offered a more grounded view. Both companies are spending at a scale the data center industry has never had to absorb at once. Both are navigating the same hard constraints: power, capacity, supply chain, silicon allocation, and time-to-build.  But the market’s reaction split decisively, and that divergence tells its own story about what investors will tolerate in 2026. To wit: Massive capex is acceptable when the return narrative is already visible in the P&L…and far less so when the payoff is still being described as “early innings.” Microsoft: AI Demand Is Real. So Is the Cost Microsoft’s fiscal Q2 2026 results reinforced the core fact that has been driving North American hyperscale development for two years: Cloud + AI growth is still accelerating, and Azure remains one of the primary runways. Microsoft said Q2 total revenue rose to $81.3 billion, while Microsoft Cloud revenue reached $51.5 billion, up 26% (constant currency 24%). Intelligent Cloud revenue hit $32.9 billion, up 29%, and Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 39%. That’s the demand signal. The supply signal is more complicated. On the call and in follow-on reporting, Microsoft’s leadership framed the moment as a deliberate capacity build into persistent AI adoption. Yet the bill for that build is now impossible to ignore: Reuters reported Microsoft’s capital spending totaled $37.5 billion in the quarter, up nearly 66% year-over-year, with roughly two-thirds going toward computing chips. That “chips first” allocation matters for the data center ecosystem. It implies a procurement and deployment reality that many developers and colo operators have been living: the short pole is not only power and buildings; it’s GPU

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Network engineers take on NetDevOps roles to advance stalled automation efforts

What NetDevOps looks like Most enterprises begin their NetDevOps journey modestly by automating a limited set of repetitive, lower-level tasks. Nearly 70% of enterprises pursuing infrastructure automation start with task-level scripting, rather than end-to-end automation, according to theCUBE Research’s AppDev Done Right Summit. This can include using tools such as Ansible or Python scripts to standardize device provisioning, configuration changes, or other routine changes. Then, more mature teams adopt Git for version control, define golden configurations, and apply basic validation before and after changes, explains Bob Laliberte, principal analyst at SiliconANGLE and theCUBE. A smaller group of enterprises extends automation efforts into complete CI/CD-style workflows with consistent testing, staged deployments, and automated verification, Laliberte adds. This capability is present in less than 25% of enterprises today, according to theCUBE, and it is typically focused on specific domains such as data center fabric or cloud networking. NetDevOps usually exists with the network organization as a dedicated automation or platform subgroup, and more than 60% of enterprises anchor NetDevOps initiatives within traditional infrastructure teams rather than application or platform engineering groups, according to Laliberte. “In larger enterprises, NetDevOps capabilities are increasingly centralized within shared infrastructure or platform teams that provide tooling, pipelines, and guardrails across compute, storage, and networking,” Laliberte says. “In more advanced or cloud-native environments, network specialists may be embedded within application, site reliability engineering (SRE), or platform teams, particularly where networking directly impacts application performance.” Transforming work At its core, NetDevOps isn’t just about changing titles for network engineers. It is about changing workflows, behaviors, and operating models across network operations.

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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