Stay Ahead, Stay ONMINE

‘Gradually then suddenly’: Is AI job displacement following this pattern?

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Whether by automating tasks, serving as copilots or generating text, images, video and software from plain English, AI is rapidly altering how we work. Yet, for all the talk about AI revolutionizing jobs, widespread workforce displacement […]

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More


Whether by automating tasks, serving as copilots or generating text, images, video and software from plain English, AI is rapidly altering how we work. Yet, for all the talk about AI revolutionizing jobs, widespread workforce displacement has yet to happen. 

It seems likely that this could be the lull before the storm. According to a recent World Economic Forum (WEF) survey, 40% of employers anticipate reducing their workforce between 2025 and 2030 in areas wherever AI can automate tasks. This statistic dovetails well with earlier predictions. For example, Goldman Sachs said in a research report two years ago that “generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation leading to “significant disruption” in the labor market. 

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) “almost 40% of global employment is exposed to AI.” Brookings said last fall in another report that “more than 30% of all workers could see at least 50% of their occupation’s tasks disrupted by gen AI.” Several years ago, Kai-Fu Lee, one of the world’s foremost AI experts, said in a 60 Minutes interview that AI could displace 40% of global jobs within 15 years.

If AI is such a disruptive force, why aren’t we seeing large layoffs?

Some have questioned those predictions, especially as job displacement from AI so far appears negligible. For example, an October 2024 Challenger Report that tracks job cuts said that in the 17 months between May 2023 and September 2024, fewer than 17,000 jobs in the U.S. had been lost due to AI.  

On the surface, this contradicts the dire warnings. But does it? Or does it suggest that we are still in a gradual phase before a possible sudden shift? History shows that technology-driven change does not always happen in a steady, linear fashion. Rather, it builds up over time until a sudden shift reshapes the landscape.

In a recent Hidden Brain podcast on inflection points, researcher Rita McGrath of Columbia University referenced Ernest Hemingway’s 1926 novel The Sun Also Rises. When one character was asked how they went bankrupt, they answered: “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” This could be an allegory for the impact of AI on jobs.

This pattern of change — slow and nearly imperceptible at first, then suddenly undeniable — has been experienced across business, technology and society. Malcolm Gladwell calls this a “tipping point,” or the moment when a trend reaches critical mass, then dramatically accelerates. 

In cybernetics — the study of complex natural and social systems — a tipping point can occur when recent technology becomes so widespread that it fundamentally changes the way people live and work. In such scenarios, the change becomes self-reinforcing. This often happens when innovation and economic incentives align, making change inevitable.

Gradually, then suddenly

While employment impacts from AI are (so far) nascent, that is not true of AI adoption. In a new survey by McKinsey, 78% of respondents said their organizations use AI in at least one business function, up more than 40% from 2023. Other research found that 74% of enterprise C-suite executives are now more confident in AI for business advice than colleagues or friends. The research also revealed that 38% trust AI to make business decisions for them, while 44% defer to AI reasoning over their own insights. 

It is not only business executives who are increasing their use of AI tools. A new chart from the investment firm Evercore depicts increased use among all age groups over the last 9 months, regardless of application. 

Source: Business Insider

This data reveals both broad and growing adoption of AI tools. However, true enterprise AI integration remains in its infancy — just 1% of executives describe their gen AI rollouts as mature, according to another McKinsey survey. This suggests that while AI adoption is surging, companies have yet to fully integrate it into core operations in a way that might displace jobs at scale. But that could change quickly. If economic pressures intensify, businesses may not have the luxury of gradual AI adoption and may feel the need to automate fast.

Canary in the coal mine

One of the first job categories likely to be hit by AI is software development. Numerous AI tools based on large language models (LLMs) exist to augment programming, and soon the function could be entirely automated. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said recently on Reddit that “we’re 3 to 6 months from a world where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.

Source: Reddit

This trend is becoming clear, as evidenced by startups in the winter 2025 cohort of incubator Y Combinator. Managing partner Jared Friedman said that 25% of this startup batch have 95% of their codebases generated by AI. He added: “A year ago, [the companies] would have built their product from scratch — but now 95% of it is built by an AI.” 

The LLMs underlying code generation, such as Claude, Gemini, Grok, Llama and ChatGPT, are all advancing rapidly and increasingly perform well on an array of quantitative benchmark tests. For example, reasoning model o3 from OpenAI missed only one question on the 2024 American Invitational Mathematics Exam, scoring 97.7%, and achieved 87.7% on GPQA Diamond, which has graduate-level biology, physics and chemistry questions.

Even more striking is a qualitative impression of the new GPT 4.5, as described in a Confluence post. GPT 4.5 correctly answered a broad and vague prompt that other models could not. This might not seem remarkable, but the authors noted: “This insignificant exchange was the first conversation with an LLM where we walked away thinking, ‘Now that feels like general intelligence.’” Did OpenAI just cross a threshold with GPT 4.5?

Tipping points

While software engineering may be among the first knowledge-worker professions to face widespread AI automation, it will not be the last. Many other white-collar jobs covering research, customer service and financial analysis are similarly exposed to AI-driven disruption. 

What might prompt a sudden shift in workplace adoption of AI? History shows that economic recessions often accelerate technological adoption, and the next downturn may be the tipping point when AI’s impact on jobs shifts from gradual to sudden. 

During economic downturns, businesses face pressure to cut costs and improve efficiency, making automation more attractive. Labor becomes more expensive compared to technology investments, especially when companies need to do more with fewer human resources. This phenomenon is sometimes called “forced productivity.” As an example, the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 saw significant advances in automation, cloud computing and digital platforms.

If a recession materializes in 2025 or 2026, companies facing pressure to reduce headcount may well turn to AI technologies, particularly tools and processes based on LLMs, as a strategy to support efficiency and productivity with fewer people. This could be even more pronounced — and more sudden — given business worries about falling behind in AI adoption.

Will there be a recession in 2025?

It is always difficult to tell when a recession will occur. J.P. Morgan’s chief economist recently estimated a 40% chance. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said it could be around 50%. The betting markets are aligned with these views, predicting a greater than 40% probability that a recession will occur in 2025. 

Source: Polymarket

If a recession does occur later in 2025, it could indeed be characterized as an “AI recession.” However, AI itself will not be the cause. Instead, economic necessity could force companies to accelerate automation decisions. This would not be a technological inevitability, but a strategic response to financial pressure.   

The extent of AI’s impact will depend on several factors, including the pace of technological sophistication and integration, the effectiveness of workforce retraining programs and the adaptability of businesses and employees to an evolving landscape. 

Whenever it occurs, the next recession may not just lead to temporary job losses. Companies that have been experimenting with AI or adopting it in limited deployments may suddenly find automation not optional, but essential for survival. If such a scenario happens, it may signal a permanent shift toward a more AI-driven workforce. 

As Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff put it in a recent earnings call: “We’re the last generation of CEOs to only manage humans. Every CEO going forward is going to manage humans and agents together. I know that’s what I’m doing. … You can see it also in the global economy. I think productivity is going to rise without additions to more human labor, which is good because human labor is not increasing in the global workforce.”

Many of history’s biggest technological shifts have coincided with economic downturns. AI may be next. The only question left is: Will 2025 be the year AI not only augments jobs but begins to replace them?

Gradually, then suddenly.

Gary Grossman is EVP of technology practice at Edelman and global lead of the Edelman AI Center of Excellence. 

Shape
Shape
Stay Ahead

Explore More Insights

Stay ahead with more perspectives on cutting-edge power, infrastructure, energy,  bitcoin and AI solutions. Explore these articles to uncover strategies and insights shaping the future of industries.

Shape

Ubuntu namespace vulnerability should be addressed quickly: Expert

Thus, “there is little impact of not ‘patching’ the vulnerability,” he said. “Organizations using centralized configuration tools like Ansible may deploy these changes with regularly scheduled maintenance or reboot windows.”  Features supposed to improve security Ironically, last October Ubuntu introduced AppArmor-based features to improve security by reducing the attack surface

Read More »

Google Cloud partners with mLogica to offer mainframe modernization

Other than the partnership with mLogica, Google Cloud also offers a variety of other mainframe migration tools, including Radis and G4 that can be employed to modernize specific applications. Enterprises can also use a combination of migration tools to modernize their mainframe applications. Some of these tools include the Gemini-powered

Read More »

Rubio Warns Venezuela Against Attacking Guyana, Exxon

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Venezuela that any attempt to invade Guyana or threaten Exxon Mobil Corp.’s operations in the country would be a “very bad move.”  Rubio spoke less than a month after a Venezuelan patrol ship entered Guyanese waters and positioned itself near a vessel contracted by Exxon, which is operating the world’s fastest-growing major oil field off the coast of the South American country.  “It would be a very bad day for the Venezuelan regime if they were to attack Guyana or attack Exxon Mobil,” Rubio said in the capital city of Georgetown on Thursday. “Suffice it to say that if that regime were to do something such as that, it would be a very bad move. It would be a big mistake. For them.” Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro reopened a border dispute more than a century after it was settled by international arbitration as he sought to galvanize supporters for last year’s presidential election. Maduro’s military and naval arsenal dwarfs Guyana’s, which was one of the continent’s poorest countries prior to Exxon’s 2015 discovery of oil.   Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali has been successful in rallying the international community behind the country’s dispute with Venezuela, with the UK, France and the US pledging support.  “We have a big Navy,” Rubio said. “It can get anywhere in the world.”  Rubio also said the US would bolster ties with Guyana, without getting into specifics. “We have commitments that exist today with Guyana,” he said. “We want to build on those, expand on those.”  Rubio also was scheduled to visit Suriname, which has sought to encourage oil exploration in offshore territory close to the Guyanese discoveries. WHAT DO YOU THINK? Generated by readers, the comments included herein do not reflect the views and opinions of Rigzone. All

Read More »

Oil Slips Despite Weekly Gain

Oil fell on concerns that the Trump administration’s tariff onslaught will reduce energy demand. West Texas Intermediate slid 0.8% to settle above $69 a barrel, retreating along with equity markets. Crude still notched its third straight weekly advance amid waning expectations of a near-term oversupply. The US is planning to impose tariffs on auto imports and so-called reciprocal levies next week, widening the global trade war. Oil traders face an uncertain outlook as they grapple with President Donald Trump’s policies and an OPEC+ plan to revive idled output. WTI futures have been rangebound for the past eight months, trading in a band of about $15 between the high $60s and low $80s. “US stocks are struggling, and longer-term demand fears are on the minds of most traders as tariffs begin to kick in on cars not manufactured in the US,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities.   Earlier this week, Vitol’s chief executive officer said while there are some threats to supply, it’s generally adequate for the next couple of years. Meanwhile, Venezuela is boosting oil exports to China as the Trump administration deploys sanctions and secondary tariffs to squeeze the Latin American nation. Oil Prices: WTI for May delivery fell 0.8% to settle at $69.36 a barrel in New York. Futures gained 1.6% for the week. Brent for May settlement dipped 0.5% to settle at $73.63 a barrel. What do you think? We’d love to hear from you, join the conversation on the Rigzone Energy Network. The Rigzone Energy Network is a new social experience created for you and all energy professionals to Speak Up about our industry, share knowledge, connect with peers and industry insiders and engage in a professional community that will empower your career in energy. MORE FROM THIS AUTHOR

Read More »

Solong North Sea disaster ship pulls into Aberdeen

The Solong, a burned-out container ship badly damaged in a collision with a US oil tanker, has finally reached Aberdeen Friday morning. It arrived at South Harbour for “safe berthing” following days of intense salvage operations. The Portuguese-flagged vessel was towed to the Port of Aberdeen after crashing into the anchored Stena Immaculate off the East Yorkshire coast on March 10, triggering an explosion and fires. It has been the focus of ongoing salvage efforts after enduring extensive damage and a week-long fire. The Solong was accompanied by another vessel equipped with counter-pollution measures to prevent further environmental damage on its pas The Solong, a burned-out container ship badly damaged in a collision with a US oil tanker, has finally reached Aberdeen Friday morning. It arrived at South Harbour for “safe berthing” following days of intense salvage operations. The Portuguese-flagged vessel was towed to the Port of Aberdeen after crashing into the anchored Stena Immaculate off the East Yorkshire coast on March 10, triggering an explosion and fires. It has been the focus of ongoing salvage efforts after enduring extensive damage and a week-long fire. The Solong was accompanied by another vessel equipped with counter-pollution measures to prevent further environmental damage on its passage to Aberdeen. Solong sailor presumed dead The crash resulted in a tragic loss: one sailor from the Solong, 38-year-old Filipino national Mark Angelo Pernia, remains missing and is presumed dead. In total, rescuers saved 36 crew members from both ships. Meanwhile, the Solong’s captain, 59-year-old Vladimir Motin from St. Petersburg, Russia, has been arrested and charged with gross negligence manslaughter. © DC ThomsonCrew on board the burnt out Solong container ship being tugged into Aberdeen’s south harbour. Image: Kenny Elrick/DC Thomson © DC ThomsonImage: Kenny Elrick/DC Thomson © DC ThomsonImage: Kenny Elrick/DC Thomson. Drone / DJI

Read More »

USA Crude Oil Inventories Down 3.3MM Barrels WoW

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 3.3 million barrels from the week ending March 14 to the week ending March 21, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report. This report was published on March 26 and included data for the week ending March 21. The EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 433.6 million barrels on March 21, 437.0 million barrels on March 14, and 448.2 million barrels on March 22, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 396.1 million barrels on March 21, 395.9 million barrels on March 14, and 363.1 million barrels on March 22, 2024, the report outlined. The EIA report highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.600 billion barrels on March 21, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were up 3.5 million barrels week on week and up 19.9 million barrels year on year, the report revealed. “At 433.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about five percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA said in its latest weekly petroleum status report. “Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels from last week and are two percent above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased and blending components inventories decreased last week,” it added. “Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are about seven percent below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by

Read More »

Schneider Electric to invest $700M in US manufacturing

Dive Brief: Automation manufacturer Schneider Electric plans to invest $700 million in its U.S. operations through 2027, the company announced Tuesday. The money will go toward facility upgrades, expansions and openings across eight sites in Texas, Tennessee, Ohio, North Carolina, Massachusetts and Missouri. Schneider expects to create more than 1,000 jobs.  The move marks Schneider’s largest-ever investment in the U.S., as the company aims to meet rising demand across its data center, utilities, manufacturing and energy infrastructure segments. Dive Insight: Schneider’s announcement is part of a larger $1 billion investment the company is making in the U.S. this decade.  Artificial intelligence-driven demand for data centers and electrical infrastructure is driving the need for heightened spending on electrical grid-related needs. Data center electricity demand could double by 2030 — consuming up to 9% of the country’s electricity generation, according to a May 2024 study by the Electric Power Research Institute. “We stand at an inflection point for the technology and industrial sectors in the U.S., driven by incredible AI growth and unprecedented energy demand,” Aamir Paul, president of North America Operations for Schneider Electric, said in a statement.  Schneider has been pushing a localization strategy in recent months, with a goal to locally source and produce roughly 90% of sales in each region. That push could help the company weather the Trump administration’s tariffs on Mexico, where Schneider has much of its North American production.  CFO Hilary Maxson said on a recent earnings call that the company is watching for any reciprocal tariffs that may impact their operations. If the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement remains in place, Maxson said the impact to Schneider would likely be “immaterial.” If the trade deal and free trade zones are repealed, however, the CFO added that the hit to the company could be greater.  “We’re really

Read More »

Utilities should develop data center tariffs to protect consumers, decarbonize: SWEEP

With data center electricity demand on the rise across the U.S., utilities should develop specialized tariffs to protect consumers and keep their grids green when these large load customers interconnect, the Southwest Energy Efficiency Project said Thursday in a report. “While AI offers the potential for significant economic and social benefits, there are growing concerns with the rapid increases in electricity demand from data centers and how they will impact the power sector and state and utility climate goals,” SWEEP said. Data centers today account for about 4.5% of U.S. electricity consumption, according to the analysis. But in its most recent report to Congress, the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab projected data centers could account for up to 12% of U.S. electricity use by 2028, SWEEP said. EPRI recently surveyed 25 utilities nationally and found almost half have received requests for new data center facilities with loads larger than 1,000 MW. And “almost half of the utilities surveyed have received data center requests that exceed 50% of their current system peak demand,” SWEEP said. The potential load additions “pose two types of threats to state greenhouse [gas] emission reduction goals,” SWEEP said: Utilities could add or utilize more fossil-fuel based generation, and they could struggle to add sufficient renewables to meet demand from the electrification of vehicles, buildings and industry, the report warned. To address these risks, SWEEP recommends that utilities ensure new data center customers — and other new industrial or commercial customers with demands over 50 MW, or combined demands from several facilities of more than 100 MW — “commit to providing sufficient revenue, over a contract period such as 12 years, to cover the generation and transmission investments made on their behalf.” Utilities should also “propose and attempt to get approval for tariffs that require new large data center customers, and other new

Read More »

Airtel connects India with 100Tbps submarine cable

“Businesses are becoming increasingly global and digital-first, with industries such as financial services, data centers, and social media platforms relying heavily on real-time, uninterrupted data flow,” Sinha added. The 2Africa Pearls submarine cable system spans 45,000 kilometers, involving a consortium of global telecommunications leaders including Bayobab, China Mobile International, Meta, Orange, Telecom Egypt, Vodafone Group, and WIOCC. Alcatel Submarine Networks is responsible for the cable’s manufacturing and installation, the statement added. This cable system is part of a broader global effort to enhance international digital connectivity. Unlike traditional telecommunications infrastructure, the 2Africa Pearls project represents a collaborative approach to solving complex global communication challenges. “The 100 Tbps capacity of the 2Africa Pearls cable significantly surpasses most existing submarine cable systems, positioning India as a key hub for high-speed connectivity between Africa, Europe, and Asia,” said Prabhu Ram, VP for Industry Research Group at CyberMedia Research. According to Sinha, Airtel’s infrastructure now spans “over 400,000 route kilometers across 34+ cables, connecting 50 countries across five continents. This expansive infrastructure ensures businesses and individuals stay seamlessly connected, wherever they are.” Gogia further emphasizes the broader implications, noting, “What also stands out is the partnership behind this — Airtel working with Meta and center3 signals a broader shift. India is no longer just a consumer of global connectivity. We’re finally shaping the routes, not just using them.”

Read More »

Former Arista COO launches NextHop AI for customized networking infrastructure

Sadana argued that unlike traditional networking where an IT person can just plug a cable into a port and it works, AI networking requires intricate, custom solutions. The core challenge is creating highly optimized, efficient networking infrastructure that can support massive AI compute clusters with minimal inefficiencies. How NextHop is looking to change the game for hyperscale networking NextHop AI is working directly alongside its hyperscaler customers to develop and build customized networking solutions. “We are here to build the most efficient AI networking solutions that are out there,” Sadana said. More specifically, Sadana said that NextHop is looking to help hyperscalers in several ways including: Compressing product development cycles: “Companies that are doing things on their own can compress their product development cycle by six to 12 months when they partner with us,” he said. Exploring multiple technological alternatives: Sadana noted that hyperscalers might try and build on their own and will often only be able to explore one or two alternative approaches. With NextHop, Sadana said his company will enable them to explore four to six different alternatives. Achieving incremental efficiency gains: At the massive cloud scale that hyperscalers operate, even an incremental one percent improvement can have an oversized outcome. “You have to make AI clusters as efficient as possible for the world to use all the AI applications at the right cost structure, at the right economics, for this to be successful,” Sadana said. “So we are participating by making that infrastructure layer a lot more efficient for cloud customers, or the hyperscalers, which, in turn, of course, gives the benefits to all of these software companies trying to run AI applications in these cloud companies.” Technical innovations: Beyond traditional networking In terms of what the company is actually building now, NextHop is developing specialized network switches

Read More »

Microsoft abandons data center projects as OpenAI considers its own, hinting at a market shift

A potential ‘oversupply position’ In a new research note, TD Cowan analysts reportedly said that Microsoft has walked away from new data center projects in the US and Europe, purportedly due to an oversupply of compute clusters that power AI. This follows reports from TD Cowen in February that Microsoft had “cancelled leases in the US totaling a couple of hundred megawatts” of data center capacity. The researchers noted that the company’s pullback was a sign of it “potentially being in an oversupply position,” with demand forecasts lowered. OpenAI, for its part, has reportedly discussed purchasing billions of dollars’ worth of data storage hardware and software to increase its computing power and decrease its reliance on hyperscalers. This fits with its planned Stargate Project, a $500 billion, US President Donald Trump-endorsed initiative to build out its AI infrastructure in the US over the next four years. Based on the easing of exclusivity between the two companies, analysts say these moves aren’t surprising. “When looking at storage in the cloud — especially as it relates to use in AI — it is incredibly expensive,” said Matt Kimball, VP and principal analyst for data center compute and storage at Moor Insights & Strategy. “Those expenses climb even higher as the volume of storage and movement of data grows,” he pointed out. “It is only smart for any business to perform a cost analysis of whether storage is better managed in the cloud or on-prem, and moving forward in a direction that delivers the best performance, best security, and best operational efficiency at the lowest cost.”

Read More »

PEAK:AIO adds power, density to AI storage server

There is also the fact that many people working with AI are not IT professionals, such as professors, biochemists, scientists, doctors, clinicians, and they don’t have a traditional enterprise department or a data center. “It’s run by people that wouldn’t really know, nor want to know, what storage is,” he said. While the new AI Data Server is a Dell design, PEAK:AIO has worked with Lenovo, Supermicro, and HPE as well as Dell over the past four years, offering to convert their off the shelf storage servers into hyper fast, very AI-specific, cheap, specific storage servers that work with all the protocols at Nvidia, like NVLink, along with NFS and NVMe over Fabric. It also greatly increased storage capacity by going with 61TB drives from Solidigm. SSDs from the major server vendors typically maxed out at 15TB, according to the vendor. PEAK:AIO competes with VAST, WekaIO, NetApp, Pure Storage and many others in the growing AI workload storage arena. PEAK:AIO’s AI Data Server is available now.

Read More »

SoftBank to buy Ampere for $6.5B, fueling Arm-based server market competition

SoftBank’s announcement suggests Ampere will collaborate with other SBG companies, potentially creating a powerful ecosystem of Arm-based computing solutions. This collaboration could extend to SoftBank’s numerous portfolio companies, including Korean/Japanese web giant LY Corp, ByteDance (TikTok’s parent company), and various AI startups. If SoftBank successfully steers its portfolio companies toward Ampere processors, it could accelerate the shift away from x86 architecture in data centers worldwide. Questions remain about Arm’s server strategy The acquisition, however, raises questions about how SoftBank will balance its investments in both Arm and Ampere, given their potentially competing server CPU strategies. Arm’s recent move to design and sell its own server processors to Meta signaled a major strategic shift that already put it in direct competition with its own customers, including Qualcomm and Nvidia. “In technology licensing where an entity is both provider and competitor, boundaries are typically well-defined without special preferences beyond potential first-mover advantages,” Kawoosa explained. “Arm will likely continue making independent licensing decisions that serve its broader interests rather than favoring Ampere, as the company can’t risk alienating its established high-volume customers.” Industry analysts speculate that SoftBank might position Arm to focus on custom designs for hyperscale customers while allowing Ampere to dominate the market for more standardized server processors. Alternatively, the two companies could be merged or realigned to present a unified strategy against incumbents Intel and AMD. “While Arm currently dominates processor architecture, particularly for energy-efficient designs, the landscape isn’t static,” Kawoosa added. “The semiconductor industry is approaching a potential inflection point, and we may witness fundamental disruptions in the next 3-5 years — similar to how OpenAI transformed the AI landscape. SoftBank appears to be maximizing its Arm investments while preparing for this coming paradigm shift in processor architecture.”

Read More »

Nvidia, xAI and two energy giants join genAI infrastructure initiative

The new AIP members will “further strengthen the partnership’s technology leadership as the platform seeks to invest in new and expanded AI infrastructure. Nvidia will also continue in its role as a technical advisor to AIP, leveraging its expertise in accelerated computing and AI factories to inform the deployment of next-generation AI data center infrastructure,” the group’s statement said. “Additionally, GE Vernova and NextEra Energy have agreed to collaborate with AIP to accelerate the scaling of critical and diverse energy solutions for AI data centers. GE Vernova will also work with AIP and its partners on supply chain planning and in delivering innovative and high efficiency energy solutions.” The group claimed, without offering any specifics, that it “has attracted significant capital and partner interest since its inception in September 2024, highlighting the growing demand for AI-ready data centers and power solutions.” The statement said the group will try to raise “$30 billion in capital from investors, asset owners, and corporations, which in turn will mobilize up to $100 billion in total investment potential when including debt financing.” Forrester’s Nguyen also noted that the influence of two of the new members — xAI, owned by Elon Musk, along with Nvidia — could easily help with fundraising. Musk “with his connections, he does not make small quiet moves,” Nguyen said. “As for Nvidia, they are the face of AI. Everything they do attracts attention.” Info-Tech’s Bickley said that the astronomical dollars involved in genAI investments is mind-boggling. And yet even more investment is needed — a lot more.

Read More »

Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

Read More »

John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

Read More »

2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

Read More »

OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

Read More »