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DeepSeek jolts AI industry: Why AI’s next leap may not come from more data, but more compute at inference

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More The AI landscape continues to evolve at a rapid pace, with recent developments challenging established paradigms. Early in 2025, Chinese AI lab DeepSeek unveiled a new model that sent shockwaves through the AI industry and resulted […]

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The AI landscape continues to evolve at a rapid pace, with recent developments challenging established paradigms. Early in 2025, Chinese AI lab DeepSeek unveiled a new model that sent shockwaves through the AI industry and resulted in a 17% drop in Nvidia’s stock, along with other stocks related to AI data center demand. This market reaction was widely reported to stem from DeepSeek’s apparent ability to deliver high-performance models at a fraction of the cost of rivals in the U.S., sparking discussion about the implications for AI data centers

To contextualize DeepSeek’s disruption, we think it’s useful to consider a broader shift in the AI landscape being driven by the scarcity of additional training data. Because the major AI labs have now already trained their models on much of the available public data on the internet, data scarcity is slowing further improvements in pre-training. As a result, model providers are looking to “test-time compute” (TTC) where reasoning models (such as Open AI’s “o” series of models) “think” before responding to a question at inference time, as an alternative method to improve overall model performance. The current thinking is that TTC may exhibit scaling-law improvements similar to those that once propelled pre-training, potentially enabling the next wave of transformative AI advancements.

These developments indicate two significant shifts: First, labs operating on smaller (reported) budgets are now capable of releasing state-of-the-art models. The second shift is the focus on TTC as the next potential driver of AI progress. Below we unpack both of these trends and the potential implications for the competitive landscape and broader AI market.

Implications for the AI industry

We believe that the shift towards TTC and the increased competition among reasoning models may have a number of implications for the wider AI landscape across hardware, cloud platforms, foundation models and enterprise software. 

1. Hardware (GPUs, dedicated chips and compute infrastructure)

  • From massive training clusters to on-demand “test-time” spikes: In our view, the shift towards TTC may have implications for the type of hardware resources that AI companies require and how they are managed. Rather than investing in increasingly larger GPU clusters dedicated to training workloads, AI companies may instead increase their investment in inference capabilities to support growing TTC needs. While AI companies will likely still require large numbers of GPUs to handle inference workloads, the differences between training workloads and inference workloads may impact how those chips are configured and used. Specifically, since inference workloads tend to be more dynamic (and “spikey”), capacity planning may become more complex than it is for batch-oriented training workloads. 
  • Rise of inference-optimized hardware: We believe that the shift in focus towards TTC is likely to increase opportunities for alternative AI hardware that specializes in low-latency inference-time compute. For example, we may see more demand for GPU alternatives such as application specific integrated circuits (ASICs) for inference. As access to TTC becomes more important than training capacity, the dominance of general-purpose GPUs, which are used for both training and inference, may decline. This shift could benefit specialized inference chip providers. 

2. Cloud platforms: Hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) and cloud compute

  • Quality of service (QoS) becomes a key differentiator: One issue preventing AI adoption in the enterprise, in addition to concerns around model accuracy, is the unreliability of inference APIs. Problems associated with unreliable API inference include fluctuating response times, rate limiting and difficulty handling concurrent requests and adapting to API endpoint changes. Increased TTC may further exacerbate these problems. In these circumstances, a cloud provider able to provide models with QoS assurances that address these challenges would, in our view, have a significant advantage.
  • Increased cloud spend despite efficiency gains: Rather than reducing demand for AI hardware, it is possible that more efficient approaches to large language model (LLM) training and inference may follow the Jevons Paradox, a historical observation where improved efficiency drives higher overall consumption. In this case, efficient inference models may encourage more AI developers to leverage reasoning models, which, in turn, increases demand for compute. We believe that recent model advances may lead to increased demand for cloud AI compute for both model inference and smaller, specialized model training.

3. Foundation model providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, Cohere, DeepSeek, Mistral)

  • Impact on pre-trained models: If new players like DeepSeek can compete with frontier AI labs at a fraction of the reported costs, proprietary pre-trained models may become less defensible as a moat. We can also expect further innovations in TTC for transformer models and, as DeepSeek has demonstrated, those innovations can come from sources outside of the more established AI labs.   

4. Enterprise AI adoption and SaaS (application layer)

  • Security and privacy concerns: Given DeepSeek’s origins in China, there is likely to be ongoing scrutiny of the firm’s products from a security and privacy perspective. In particular, the firm’s China-based API and chatbot offerings are unlikely to be widely used by enterprise AI customers in the U.S., Canada or other Western countries. Many companies are reportedly moving to block the use of DeepSeek’s website and applications. We expect that DeepSeek’s models will face scrutiny even when they are hosted by third parties in the U.S. and other Western data centers which may limit enterprise adoption of the models. Researchers are already pointing to examples of security concerns around jail breaking, bias and harmful content generation. Given consumer attention, we may see experimentation and evaluation of DeepSeek’s models in the enterprise, but it is unlikely that enterprise buyers will move away from incumbents due to these concerns.
  • Vertical specialization gains traction: In the past, vertical applications that use foundation models mainly focused on creating workflows designed for specific business needs. Techniques such as retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), model routing, function calling and guardrails have played an important role in adapting generalized models for these specialized use cases. While these strategies have led to notable successes, there has been persistent concern that significant improvements to the underlying models could render these applications obsolete. As Sam Altman cautioned, a major breakthrough in model capabilities could “steamroll” application-layer innovations that are built as wrappers around foundation models.

However, if advancements in train-time compute are indeed plateauing, the threat of rapid displacement diminishes. In a world where gains in model performance come from TTC optimizations, new opportunities may open up for application-layer players. Innovations in domain-specific post-training algorithms — such as structured prompt optimization, latency-aware reasoning strategies and efficient sampling techniques — may provide significant performance improvements within targeted verticals.

Any performance improvement would be especially relevant in the context of reasoning-focused models like OpenAI’s GPT-4o and DeepSeek-R1, which often exhibit multi-second response times. In real-time applications, reducing latency and improving the quality of inference within a given domain could provide a competitive advantage. As a result, application-layer companies with domain expertise may play a pivotal role in optimizing inference efficiency and fine-tuning outputs.

DeepSeek demonstrates a declining emphasis on ever-increasing amounts of pre-training as the sole driver of model quality. Instead, the development underscores the growing importance of TTC. While the direct adoption of DeepSeek models in enterprise software applications remains uncertain due to ongoing scrutiny, their impact on driving improvements in other existing models is becoming clearer.

We believe that DeepSeek’s advancements have prompted established AI labs to incorporate similar techniques into their engineering and research processes, supplementing their existing hardware advantages. The resulting reduction in model costs, as predicted, appears to be contributing to increased model usage, aligning with the principles of Jevons Paradox.

Pashootan Vaezipoor is technical lead at Georgian.

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NetBox Labs embraces intersection of network management and AI

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9 steps to take to prepare for a quantum future

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WPC JV, Targa Make FID on Traverse Pipeline Along Gulf Coast

The WPC joint venture has reached a final investment decision on the Traverse Pipeline along the Gulf Coast in partnership with Targa Resources Corp. The joint venture, owned by WhiteWater, MPLX LP, and Enbridge Inc., has secured sufficient firm transportation agreements with investment grade shippers, WhiteWater said in a news release. The bi-directional Traverse Pipeline is designed to transport up to 1.75 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfpd) of natural gas through approximately 160 miles of 36-inch pipeline along the Gulf Coast between Agua Dulce in South Texas and the Katy area, according to the release. The Traverse Pipeline will be constructed and operated by WhiteWater and is expected to be in service in 2027, pending the receipt of customary regulatory and other approvals, the company said. Supply for the Traverse Pipeline will be sourced from multiple connections, including, but not limited to, the Whistler, Blackcomb, and Matterhorn Express Pipelines, WhiteWater said, adding that the pipeline “enhances optionality for shippers to access multiple premium markets”. The Traverse Pipeline will be owned by the Blackcomb Pipeline joint venture, which is owned 70.0 percent by WPC, 17.5 percent by Targa, and 12.5 percent by MPLX. The WPC joint venture is owned by WhiteWater (50.6%), MPLX (30.4%), and Enbridge (19.0%). WPC owns long-haul natural gas pipelines and storage assets which transport natural gas from the Permian Basin to South Texas with direct connections to LNG export markets. The WPC joint venture owns the Whistler Pipeline, the Rio Bravo Pipeline, 70% of the Blackcomb Pipeline, 70% of the Traverse Pipeline, 70% of the ADCC Pipeline, and 50% of the Waha Gas Storage facility. WhiteWater’s stake in WPC is owned by I Squared Capital. WPC owns long-haul natural gas pipelines and storage assets that transport natural gas from the Permian Basin to South Texas with

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Matador Exits Eagle Ford

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North America Keeps Rig Loss Streak Going

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ScotWind and Intog to bring £96.1bn investment to offshore wind sector

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BW Energy Extends License for Golfinho Offshore Brazil

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World Bank Approves Philippine Loan for RE Scale-Up

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China’s rare earth export controls threaten enterprise IT hardware supply chains

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DARPA backs multiple quantum paths in benchmarking initiative

Nord Quantique plans to use the money to expand its team, says Julien Camirand Lemyre, the company’s president, CTO and co-founder. That’s an opportunity to accelerate the development of the technology, he says. “By extension, what this will mean for enterprise users is that quantum solutions to real-world business problems will be available sooner, due to that acceleration,” he says. “And so enterprise customers need to also accelerate how they are thinking about adoption because the advantages quantum will provide will be tangible.” Lemyre predicts that useful quantum computers will be available for enterprises before the end of the decade. “In fact, there has been tremendous progress across the entire quantum sector in recent years,” he says. “This means industry needs to begin thinking seriously about how they will integrate quantum computing into their operations over the medium term.” “We’re seeing, with the deployment of programs like the QBI in the US and investments of billions of dollars from  public and private investors globally, an increasing maturity of quantum technologies,” said Paul Terry, CEO at Photonic, which is betting on optically-linked silicon spin qubits.  “Our architecture has been designed from day one to build modular, scalable, fault-tolerant quantum systems able to be deployed in data centers,” he said. He’s not the only one to mention fault-tolerance. DARPA stressed fault-tolerance in its announcement, and its selections point to the importance of error correction for the future of quantum computing. The biggest problem with today’s quantum computers is that the number of errors increases faster than the number of qubits, making them impossible to scale up. Quantum companies are working on a variety of approaches to reduce the error rates low enough that quantum computers can get big enough to actually to real work.

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Zayo’s Fiber Bet: Scaling Long-Haul and Metro Networks for AI Data Centers

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Crusoe Adds 4.5 GW Natural Gas to Fuel AI, Expands Abilene Data Center to 1.2 GW

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Executive Roundtable: Data Center Site Selection and Market Evolution in a Constrained Environment

For the third installment of our Executive Roundtable for the First Quarter of 2025, we asked our panel of seasoned industry experts about how the dynamics of data center site selection have never been more complex—or more critical to long-term success. In an industry where speed to market is paramount, operators must now navigate an increasingly constrained landscape in the age of AI, ultra cloud and hyperscale expansion, marked by fierce competition for land, tightening power availability, and evolving local regulations.  Traditional core markets such as Northern Virginia, Dallas, and Phoenix remain essential, but supply constraints and permitting challenges are prompting developers to rethink their approach. As hyperscalers and colocation providers push the boundaries of site selection strategy, secondary and edge markets are emerging as viable alternatives, driven by favorable energy economics, infrastructure investment, and shifting customer demand.  At the same time, power procurement is now reshaping the equation. With grid limitations and interconnection delays creating uncertainty in major hubs, operators are exploring new solutions, from direct utility partnerships to on-site generation with renewables, natural gas, and burgeoning modular nuclear concepts. The question now is not just where to build but how to ensure long-term operational resilience. As data center demand accelerates, operators face mounting challenges in securing suitable land, reliable power, and regulatory approvals in both established and emerging markets.  And so we asked our distinguished executive panel for the First Quarter of 2025, with grid capacity constraints, zoning complexities, and heightened competition shaping development decisions, how are companies refining their site selection strategies in Q1 2025 to balance speed to market, scalability, and sustainability? And, which North American regions are showing the greatest potential as the next wave of data center expansion takes shape?

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Podcast: iMasons CEO Santiago Suinaga on the Future of Sustainable AI Data Centers

For this episode of the DCF Show podcast, host Matt Vincent, Editor in Chief of Data Center Frontier, is joined by Santiago Suinaga, CEO of Infrastructure Masons (iMasons), to explore the urgent challenges of scaling data center construction while maintaining sustainability commitments, among other pertinent industry topics. The AI Race and Responsible Construction “Balancing scale and sustainability is key because the AI race is real,” Suinaga emphasizes. “Forecasted capacities have skyrocketed to meet AI demand. Hyperscale end users and data center developers are deploying high volumes to secure capacity in an increasingly constrained global market.” This surge in demand pressures the industry to build faster than ever before. Yet, as Suinaga notes, speed and sustainability must go hand in hand. “The industry must embrace a build fast, build smart mentality. Leveraging digital twin technology, AI-driven design optimization, and circular economy principles is critical.” Sustainability, he argues, should be embedded at every stage of new builds, from integrating low-carbon materials to optimizing energy efficiency from the outset. “We can’t afford to compromise sustainability for speed. Instead, we must integrate renewable energy sources and partner with local governments, utilities, and energy providers to accelerate responsible construction.” A key example of this thinking is peak shaving—using redundant infrastructure and idle capacities to power the grid when data center demand is low. “99.99% of the time, this excess capacity can support local communities, while ensuring the data center retains prioritized energy supply when needed.” Addressing Embodied Carbon and Supply Chain Accountability Decarbonization is a cornerstone of iMasons’ efforts, particularly through the iMasons Climate Accord. Suinaga highlights the importance of tackling embodied carbon—the emissions embedded in data center construction materials and IT hardware. “We need standardized reporting metrics and supplier accountability to drive meaningful change,” he says. “Greater transparency across the supply chain can be

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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