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Oil Market Faces ‘Quadruple Whammy’

The oil market has faced a “quadruple whammy”, Ole R. Hvalbye, Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), said in a SEB report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Monday. U.S. tariffs, an OPEC+ production hike, a retaliation from China, and Saudi price cuts made up this quadruple whammy, Hvalbye outlined in […]

The oil market has faced a “quadruple whammy”, Ole R. Hvalbye, Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), said in a SEB report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Monday.

U.S. tariffs, an OPEC+ production hike, a retaliation from China, and Saudi price cuts made up this quadruple whammy, Hvalbye outlined in the report, which pointed out that Brent crude oil prices had “crashed by a whopping $13 per barrel (-21 percent) since [the] last Wednesday high, marking a significant decline in just four trading days”.

In the report, Hvalbye pointed out that Brent was trading at $62.8 per barrel. The SEB analyst highlighted that this was Brent’s lowest point since February 2021.

“On Wednesday, the U.S. unveiled its new package of individual tariffs,” Hvalbye said in the report.

“The market reacted swiftly, as Trump followed through on his promise to rebalance the U.S. trade position with the world. His primary objective is a more balanced trade environment, which, naturally, weakened Brent crude prices,” he added.

“The widespread imposition of strict tariffs is likely to fuel concerns about an economic slowdown, which would weaken global oil demand. This macroeconomic uncertainty, especially regarding tariffs, calls for caution about the pace of demand growth,” he continued.

Hvalbye noted in the report that, shortly after, OPEC+ announced plans to raise production in May by 411,000 barrels per day, “exceeding earlier expectations with a three-monthly increment”.

“OPEC emphasized that strong market fundamentals and a positive outlook were behind the decision. However, the decision likely stemmed from frustration within the cartel, particularly after months of excess production from Kazakhstan and Iraq,” he added.

The SEB analyst also stated in the report that, last Friday, even though the Chinese market was closed, firm indications came from China on how it plans to handle the U.S. tariffs.

“China is clearly meeting force with force, imposing 34 percent tariffs on all U.S. goods,” he said.

“This move raises fears of an economic slowdown due to reduced global trade, which would consequently weaken global oil demand going forward,” he added.

Hvalbye went on to note in the report that, at the start of this week, oil prices continued to drop after Saudi Arabia slashed its flagship crude price by the most in over two years.

“Saudi Arabia reduced the Arab Light OSP by $2.3 per barrel for Asia in May, while prices to Europe and the U.S. were also cut”, Hvalbye pointed out.

In the SEB report, Hvalbye said these four key factors have driven the massive price drop over the last four trading days and stated that the overarching theme is the fear of weaker demand and stronger supply.

“The escalating trade war has raised concerns about a potential global recession, leading to weaker demand, compounded by the surprisingly large output hike from OPEC+,” he noted.

“That said, it’s worth questioning whether the market is underestimating the risk of a U.S.-Iran conflict this year,” he added.

“U.S. military mobilization and Iran’s resistance to diplomacy have raised the risk of conflict,” he continued.  

“With this backdrop, we continue to forecast $70 per barrel for this year. For reference, Brent crude averaged $75 per barrel in Q1-2025,” he added.

In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Monday, Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship Management at Kudotrade, said crude oil futures are facing further downside, “driven by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China”.

“The imposition of higher tariffs by both countries has raised concerns about a potential global recession, which could dampen oil demand,” he stated in the analysis.

“This fear has triggered a sharp decline in prices … Traders could continue to price in recessionary risks, weighing on the market,” he added.

“Furthermore, the decision by OPEC+ to increase oil production further pressures the market. The group has revised its output plans, now aiming to add 411,000 barrels per day in May, significantly more than the previously anticipated 135,000 barrels per day,” he continued.

“This increase in supply, reversing previous production cuts, is expected to exacerbate the existing glut in the market,” he went on to state.

Looking at demand in the market analysis, Chrysikos said Asia has seen a decline in oil imports in the first quarter of 2025, with a slight recovery in March.

“However, demand could remain under pressure given the current broader economic conditions,” he warned.

“This combination of weak demand and growing supply suggests that the outlook for crude prices could remain bearish for now,” he added.

In a separate market analysis sent to Rigzone today, Chris Weston, Head of Research at Pepperstone, said, “we saw a solid breakdown in crude on the futures reopen, with front-month Brent and WTI crude taking out technical support levels which have defined the lows and marked key turning points since mid-2021”.

“Whether the downside break in price of the key support ($62 in WTI crude) levels holds is yet to be seen, and after the clean-out of positioning through forced liquidations in early Asia, we’re now seeing some brave souls re-engaging with risk,” he added.

“Very little has changed though through the trading day, and Trump seems incredibly relaxed about the carnage in the market, and the market’s ability to price growth and recession risk will remain challenged until the April economic data series – which starts to quantify the fallout of the new tariff rates – is known later this month,” he continued.

“Until then, unless we get tangible evidence of less fractured relations between the U.S. and China/Europe, the market will continue to take down its perception of crude demand, while Saudi Aramco cutting oil prices to key customers, and OPEC+ calls to push for a larger output hike, also weighs on the crude markets and compels traders to sell rallies,” he went on to state.

Rigzone contacted the White House, OPEC, and the State Council of the People’s Republic of China for comment on SEB’s report and Chrysikos and Weston’s analysis. Rigzone also contacted Aramco for comment on SEB’s report and Weston’s analysis, the Iranian ministry of foreign affairs for comment on SEB’s report, and the European Commission Chief Spokesperson for comment on Weston’s analysis.

A spokesperson for the European Commission declined to comment. At the time of writing, the White House, OPEC, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, Aramco, and the Iranian ministry of foreign affairs have not responded to Rigzone.

To contact the author, email [email protected]

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Broadcom favors stock buyback over investing in innovation

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Brent Crashes to 4 Year Low

In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone on Wednesday by the SEB team, Ole R. Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at the company, highlighted that Brent “crashe[d]… to [a] four year low”. “Since markets opened yesterday, Brent crude prices have tumbled another $4 per barrel, falling from already depressed levels to the current $60.9 per barrel – marking the lowest level in over four years (since early February 2021),” Hvalbye noted in the report. “Unsurprisingly, tariffs continue to dominate headlines. The U.S. president’s ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on trading partners, most notably a 104 percent levy on Chinese goods, came into effect today,” he added. “The increasingly aggressive trade agenda is sapping risk appetite, with oil, broader commodities, and equities all taking a hit,” Hvalbye pointed out. In the report, Hvalbye warned that, with no signs of immediate de-escalation, risks remain firmly skewed to the downside. “Fears of weaker global oil demand, combined with the OPEC+ decision to loosen output more quickly than expected, have created a toxic cocktail fueling concerns of an oversupplied oil market,” he said. Hvalbye also highlighted in the report that West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $56.7 per barrel this morning. The analyst warned in the report that these are “levels that threaten the profitability of several U.S. shale oil fields”. “According to BNEF, many producers require prices well above $50 per barrel to break even,” he said in the report. “In this environment, some shale players may soon have to ignore the president’s familiar call to ‘drill, baby, drill’ as margins are severely compressed. If WTI remains in the low $50s, a slowdown in U.S. oil production further out on the curve is increasingly likely,” he added. Hvalbye also highlighted in the report that American Petroleum Institute (API) data released last night showed

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BP Pauses Plan to Make Clean Jet Fuel at Spanish Plant

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Aramco Places 20-Year Order from Rio Grande LNG Expansion Project

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Building a ‘digital twin’ of your asset can power your future

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Perenco completes first UK CO2 injection

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Former Grampian Police detective Alan Smith on life in industrial investigations

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China’s rare earth export controls threaten enterprise IT hardware supply chains

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DARPA backs multiple quantum paths in benchmarking initiative

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Zayo’s Fiber Bet: Scaling Long-Haul and Metro Networks for AI Data Centers

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Crusoe Adds 4.5 GW Natural Gas to Fuel AI, Expands Abilene Data Center to 1.2 GW

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Executive Roundtable: Data Center Site Selection and Market Evolution in a Constrained Environment

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Podcast: iMasons CEO Santiago Suinaga on the Future of Sustainable AI Data Centers

For this episode of the DCF Show podcast, host Matt Vincent, Editor in Chief of Data Center Frontier, is joined by Santiago Suinaga, CEO of Infrastructure Masons (iMasons), to explore the urgent challenges of scaling data center construction while maintaining sustainability commitments, among other pertinent industry topics. The AI Race and Responsible Construction “Balancing scale and sustainability is key because the AI race is real,” Suinaga emphasizes. “Forecasted capacities have skyrocketed to meet AI demand. Hyperscale end users and data center developers are deploying high volumes to secure capacity in an increasingly constrained global market.” This surge in demand pressures the industry to build faster than ever before. Yet, as Suinaga notes, speed and sustainability must go hand in hand. “The industry must embrace a build fast, build smart mentality. Leveraging digital twin technology, AI-driven design optimization, and circular economy principles is critical.” Sustainability, he argues, should be embedded at every stage of new builds, from integrating low-carbon materials to optimizing energy efficiency from the outset. “We can’t afford to compromise sustainability for speed. Instead, we must integrate renewable energy sources and partner with local governments, utilities, and energy providers to accelerate responsible construction.” A key example of this thinking is peak shaving—using redundant infrastructure and idle capacities to power the grid when data center demand is low. “99.99% of the time, this excess capacity can support local communities, while ensuring the data center retains prioritized energy supply when needed.” Addressing Embodied Carbon and Supply Chain Accountability Decarbonization is a cornerstone of iMasons’ efforts, particularly through the iMasons Climate Accord. Suinaga highlights the importance of tackling embodied carbon—the emissions embedded in data center construction materials and IT hardware. “We need standardized reporting metrics and supplier accountability to drive meaningful change,” he says. “Greater transparency across the supply chain can be

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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