
Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, plans to cut its oil-price assumption in the federal budget after the market plunged.
The 2025 assumption will be lower than last year’s $80 a barrel, Mudher Saleh, a financial adviser to the prime minister, said Tuesday by phone, without being more specific. The decision was delayed earlier this year by negotiations over payments to oil companies.
Oil has tumbled this year, dropping sharply the past two weeks as US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs upended global markets. Benchmark Brent has lost 13% in April as the trade war stokes fears of a recession that would hurt energy demand, especially in the US and China, the biggest crude consumers.
In mid-2023, Iraq’s parliament approved spending plans through 2025. The 2023 budget assumed a $70 price for crude, with subsequent years to be reviewed and adjusted. Brent is currently trading below $65 a barrel in London.
The lower price puts particular pressure on Middle Eastern economies that are dependent on oil. Iraq, especially, needs higher prices to support spending as it rebuilds an economy weakened by years of war.
International oil companies operating in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region were forced to halt exports following the shutdown of a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan in early 2023. They’ve since been negotiating contract terms with both federal and regional authorities in a bid to restart flows.
The budget is set to be sent to parliament shortly for final approval, Saleh said.
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