Oil prices may decline further this year as new production swells and demand remains capped by China’s faltering growth, the head of the International Energy Agency said. While crude futures have recovered over the past two weeks to trade near $68 a barrel on London, they remain roughly 9% below levels traded before President Donald Trump announced a blizzard of tariffs on China and other nations on April 2.  The IEA sees “slow demand growth in the markets, mainly driven by what is happening in China,” Executive Director Fatih Birol said in an interview with Bloomberg television. “If there are no other surprises, we may expect oil prices to see a downward pressure further.” There’s still lots of uncertainty and a “change in the trade war’s context in a positive direction may increase the global economic outlook, and we may see oil demand slightly higher than what we have now,” Birol said. It’s also hard to predict a direction for Iran’s oil exports amid the country’s talks with the Trump administration, he said.  Birol is visiting London as the IEA and the UK government convene a two-day summit of more than 60 countries and numerous companies to discuss the future of energy security. The Paris-based agency was founded by the US and other oil—importing nations in the 1970s to monitor energy issues. Last year, the IEA — which has predicted that global oil demand will stop growing this decade — drew criticism from some US Republican lawmakers, who accused the agency of focusing on the transition to clean energy at the expense of its core mandate on supply security. Birol said the agency works with the Trump administration and other member nations “in a respectful way,” and that it continues to forecast that oil demand growth will “slow down considerably

Oil fell after a Reuters report that some OPEC+ members will seek an accelerated output increase overshadowed an optimistic turn in trade talks between the US and China. West Texas Intermediate futures sank 2.2% to settle just above $62 a barrel. The report compounded pressure from an earlier item from the news service that Kazakhstan’s newly appointed energy minister said the country is unable to reduce production at its three largest projects, which was later walked back. The commodity pared some losses on a Wall Street Journal report that US tariffs on China could be cut by more than half in some cases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later told reporters that President Donald Trump hasn’t offered to take down US tariffs on China on a unilateral basis and that a full trade deal with the country may take two to three years. Trump’s earlier comments that he doesn’t plan to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spurred a relief rally in stocks and provided a floor to crude prices. Oil has declined sharply this month, touching a four-year low at one point, driven by investors’ fears that the onslaught of tariffs and counter-levies between the US and its biggest trading partners will sap crude demand. The drop has been compounded by the OPEC+ alliance’s decision to bring back production at a faster-than-expected pace, reviving concerns about a supply glut. That move was designed to keep perennial overproducers like Kazakhstan in line with their targets, and Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said at the time the hike would be just an “aperitif” if those countries didn’t improve their performance. “It’s kind of hard to put the toothpaste back in the tube on this one,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, in regards to Kazakhstan’s recanting of

Dive Brief: Enphase Energy expects to absorb most of the impact of the Trump administration’s China tariffs this year as it works to line up non-China battery cell supplies by early 2026, CEO Badri Kothandaraman said Tuesday on the company’s first quarter earnings call.  Though Enphase could raise battery prices by 6% to 8% later this year, it plans to bear the brunt of triple-digit duties on cells and other battery materials imported from China, which Kothandaraman said accounts for 90% to 95% of global battery cell supply. Enphase reported a 13% decline in U.S. revenue from Q4 2024 due to seasonality and softening demand, it said, amid broader uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and the fate of U.S. tax credits that benefit domestic battery manufacturers and installers. Dive Insight: Enphase’s geographically diversified manufacturing base provides some tariff protection for non-battery products, such as microinverters and electric vehicle charging equipment, Kothandaraman said on the call. Its battery business does face significant cost increases due to China’s dominance of the battery supply chain, however. Though the company makes about 25% of its batteries in the United States and plans to further increase that share, it remains reliant on China-made cells for now, Kothandaraman said. U.S. battery distributors and energy storage developers were already bracing for higher import duties on Chinese inputs thanks to an expected increase in tariffs imposed during the Biden administration — but the 145% duty on a range of Chinese imports far exceeds the double-digit tariffs Trump threatened during the 2024 campaign. Administration officials suggested this week that China tariffs could decline to 50% to 65% in the near term without offering details on the timing or scope of the potential change. Looking ahead, Enphase must weigh the impacts of import duties against the higher cost of U.S.

Calls have been made for the UK government to provide transitional support for North Sea oil and gas workers by a north-east Scotland MP. Leading a debate in Westminster, MP for Aberdeen north Kirsty Blackman urged the UK government to deliver a clear and credible plan to protect jobs and communities during the energy transition. “As of 2021, direct employment in oil and gas in Aberdeen has declined by nearly one-third since 2015,” Blackman said, citing evidence from the UK’s seventh carbon budget. “Household disposable income has fallen and poverty has increased… some estimates indicate that around 14,000 people in the region will need to have moved to other roles or sectors between 2022 and 2030.” The fate of North Sea oil and gas workers, along with those in services reliant upon extraction, is a key challenge of the UK’s energy transition. The Labour Party previously made banning future North Sea oil and gas licences a key part of its election campaign as it looks to move the country away from fossil fuels towards renewables. Aberdeen North MP, Kirsty Blackman.Photo: PARBUL/PA Wire Addressing the chamber, the SNP MP warned that political uncertainty and a lack of investment are threatening to derail the UK’s energy ambitions, with skilled workers increasingly looking overseas for opportunities. “We are at a tipping point,” Blackman added. “The risk is that these highly mobile, highly paid oil and gas workers will go abroad. They can up sticks and move to another country, because drilling is the same there—even if the carbon cost is higher and conditions are worse.” Support plan Blackman previously gave her backing to Unite the Union’s ‘No Ban Without a Plan’ campaign to preserve oil worker jobs throughout the transition The trade union launched the campaign to create 35,000 commensurate new energy transition

Dive Brief: The U.S. Commerce Department on Monday announced its final determinations in an antidumping and countervailing duty investigation into solar cell imports from four Southeast Asian countries, setting individual tariff rates of more than 3,400%. “These are very strong results,” said Tim Brightbill, attorney for the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, the alliance of seven U.S. solar manufacturers that originally brought the case to the Commerce Department and the U.S. International Trade Commission. Brightbill spoke during a Monday press call.  The 3,403.96% subsidy rate set for four Cambodian solar exporters is “among the highest rates I’ve ever seen in any kind of countervailing duty investigation,” Brightbill said.  Dive Insight: The across-the-board dumping rate for Cambodia is 125.37%. The rate was set after the Cambodian producers dropped out of the investigation, leaving trade officials to base the rate on the facts available with “adverse inferences.” The Commerce Department in 2023 found that manufacturers had operated in Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam to dodge tariffs on Chinese-made solar components, and it imposed import duties accordingly.  Chinese solar module manufacturer JinkoSolar is subject to an individual 3,403.96% subsidy rate in Cambodia, an 38.38% subsidy rate in Malaysia, and an 125.91% dumping rate in Vietnam. Individual subsidy rates for Thailand go as high as 799.55%, while rates for Vietnam go to 542.64%. The average countervailing duty rate increase was 600%, Jeffries said in a Tuesday equity research report.  “Most notably, CVD rates for Thailand/Cambodia were up 250[%]/~400[%] for select suppliers vs. updated [preliminary] determinations, while Malaysia/Vietnam saw more modest 20[%]/30[%] increases (with a few exceptions),” Jeffries said. “Per BNEF, the U.S. imported $12.9 [billion] in cells/modules from the four countries, or 77% of total module imports.”  The finding could be a “modest positive” for First Solar “if it can capitalize by adding to backlog,”

Baker Hughes Co. has reported $402 million in net income for the first quarter (Q1), down $777 million from the prior three-month period and $53 million against Q1 2024. Net earnings adjusted for nonrecurring or extraordinary items fell 27 percent quarter-on-quarter but rose 19 percent year-on-year to $509 million, or 51 cents per share. Adjustments totaled $108 million. The adjusted figure beat the average estimate of 47 cents from analysts surveyed by Zacks. The Houston, Texas-based oilfield and energy tech heavyweight closed higher at $38.36 on Nasdaq on results day. Meanwhile Baker Hughes’ adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) dropped 21 percent sequentially but grew 10 percent year-over-year to $1.04 billion. Adjustments totaled $140 million. The quarter-on-quarter decline in adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA primarily resulted from lower volumes in both the oilfield services and equipment (OFSE) segment and the industrial and energy technology (IET) segment. The decrease in volumes was partially offset by “productivity and structural cost-out initiatives”, Baker Hughes said in an online statement. “The year-over-year increase in adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA was driven by increased volume in IET including higher proportionate growth in Gas Technology Equipment and productivity, structural cost-out initiatives and higher pricing in both segments, partially offset by decreased volume and business mix in OFSE and cost inflation in both segments”. Revenue totaled $6.43 billion, down 13 percent sequentially but stable year-on-year. Operating activities in the January-March 2025 period generated $709 million in cash flow. Free cash flow landed at $454 million. “In our IET segment, we booked $3.2 billion of orders, including our first data center awards, totaling more than 350 MW of power solutions for this rapidly evolving market”, highlighted chair and chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli. “In addition to expanding opportunities for data centers, we have a strong pipeline