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A Visual Guide to How Diffusion Models Work

This article is aimed at those who want to understand exactly how Diffusion Models work, with no prior knowledge expected. I’ve tried to use illustrations wherever possible to provide visual intuitions on each part of these models. I’ve kept mathematical notation and equations to a minimum, and where they are necessary I’ve tried to define […]

This article is aimed at those who want to understand exactly how Diffusion Models work, with no prior knowledge expected. I’ve tried to use illustrations wherever possible to provide visual intuitions on each part of these models. I’ve kept mathematical notation and equations to a minimum, and where they are necessary I’ve tried to define and explain them as they occur.

Intro

I’ve framed this article around three main questions:

  • What exactly is it that diffusion models learn?
  • How and why do diffusion models work?
  • Once you’ve trained a model, how do you get useful stuff out of it?

The examples will be based on the glyffuser, a minimal text-to-image diffusion model that I previously implemented and wrote about. The architecture of this model is a standard text-to-image denoising diffusion model without any bells or whistles. It was trained to generate pictures of new “Chinese” glyphs from English definitions. Have a look at the picture below — even if you’re not familiar with Chinese writing, I hope you’ll agree that the generated glyphs look pretty similar to the real ones!

Random examples of glyffuser training data (left) and generated data (right).

What exactly is it that diffusion models learn?

Generative Ai models are often said to take a big pile of data and “learn” it. For text-to-image diffusion models, the data takes the form of pairs of images and descriptive text. But what exactly is it that we want the model to learn? First, let’s forget about the text for a moment and concentrate on what we are trying to generate: the images.

Probability distributions

Broadly, we can say that we want a generative AI model to learn the underlying probability distribution of the data. What does this mean? Consider the one-dimensional normal (Gaussian) distribution below, commonly written 𝒩(μ,σ²) and parameterized with mean μ = 0 and variance σ² = 1. The black curve below shows the probability density function. We can sample from it: drawing values such that over a large number of samples, the set of values reflects the underlying distribution. These days, we can simply write something like x = random.gauss(0, 1) in Python to sample from the standard normal distribution, although the computational sampling process itself is non-trivial!

Values sampled from an underlying distribution (here, the standard normal 𝒩(0,1)) can then be used to estimate the parameters of that distribution.

We could think of a set of numbers sampled from the above normal distribution as a simple dataset, like that shown as the orange histogram above. In this particular case, we can calculate the parameters of the underlying distribution using maximum likelihood estimation, i.e. by working out the mean and variance. The normal distribution estimated from the samples is shown by the dotted line above. To take some liberties with terminology, you might consider this as a simple example of “learning” an underlying probability distribution. We can also say that here we explicitly learnt the distribution, in contrast with the implicit methods that diffusion models use.

Conceptually, this is all that generative AI is doing — learning a distribution, then sampling from that distribution!

Data representations

What, then, does the underlying probability distribution of a more complex dataset look like, such as that of the image dataset we want to use to train our diffusion model?

First, we need to know what the representation of the data is. Generally, a machine learning (ML) model requires data inputs with a consistent representation, i.e. format. For the example above, it was simply numbers (scalars). For images, this representation is commonly a fixed-length vector.

The image dataset used for the glyffuser model is ~21,000 pictures of Chinese glyphs. The images are all the same size, 128 × 128 = 16384 pixels, and greyscale (single-channel color). Thus an obvious choice for the representation is a vector x of length 16384, where each element corresponds to the color of one pixel: x = (x,x₂,…,x₁₆₃₈₄). We can call the domain of all possible images for our dataset “pixel space”.

An example glyph with pixel values labelled (downsampled to 32 × 32 pixels for readability).

Dataset visualization

We make the assumption that our individual data samples, x, are actually sampled from an underlying probability distribution, q(x), in pixel space, much as the samples from our first example were sampled from an underlying normal distribution in 1-dimensional space. Note: the notation x q(x) is commonly used to mean: “the random variable x sampled from the probability distribution q(x).”

This distribution is clearly much more complex than a Gaussian and cannot be easily parameterized — we need to learn it with a ML model, which we’ll discuss later. First, let’s try to visualize the distribution to gain a better intution.

As humans find it difficult to see in more than 3 dimensions, we need to reduce the dimensionality of our data. A small digression on why this works: the manifold hypothesis posits that natural datasets lie on lower dimensional manifolds embedded in a higher dimensional space — think of a line embedded in a 2-D plane, or a plane embedded in 3-D space. We can use a dimensionality reduction technique such as UMAP to project our dataset from 16384 to 2 dimensions. The 2-D projection retains a lot of structure, consistent with the idea that our data lie on a lower dimensional manifold embedded in pixel space. In our UMAP, we see two large clusters corresponding to characters in which the components are arranged either horizontally (e.g. 明) or vertically (e.g. 草). An interactive version of the plot below with popups on each datapoint is linked here.

 Click here for an interactive version of this plot.

Let’s now use this low-dimensional UMAP dataset as a visual shorthand for our high-dimensional dataset. Remember, we assume that these individual points have been sampled from a continuous underlying probability distribution q(x). To get a sense of what this distribution might look like, we can apply a KDE (kernel density estimation) over the UMAP dataset. (Note: this is just an approximation for visualization purposes.)

This gives a sense of what q(x) should look like: clusters of glyphs correspond to high-probability regions of the distribution. The true q(x) lies in 16384 dimensions — this is the distribution we want to learn with our diffusion model.

We showed that for a simple distribution such as the 1-D Gaussian, we could calculate the parameters (mean and variance) from our data. However, for complex distributions such as images, we need to call on ML methods. Moreover, what we will find is that for diffusion models in practice, rather than parameterizing the distribution directly, they learn it implicitly through the process of learning how to transform noise into data over many steps.

Takeaway

The aim of generative AI such as diffusion models is to learn the complex probability distributions underlying their training data and then sample from these distributions.

How and why do diffusion models work?

Diffusion models have recently come into the spotlight as a particularly effective method for learning these probability distributions. They generate convincing images by starting from pure noise and gradually refining it. To whet your interest, have a look at the animation below that shows the denoising process generating 16 samples.

In this section we’ll only talk about the mechanics of how these models work but if you’re interested in how they arose from the broader context of generative models, have a look at the further reading section below.

What is “noise”?

Let’s first precisely define noise, since the term is thrown around a lot in the context of diffusion. In particular, we are talking about Gaussian noise: consider the samples we talked about in the section about probability distributions. You could think of each sample as an image of a single pixel of noise. An image that is “pure Gaussian noise”, then, is one in which each pixel value is sampled from an independent standard Gaussian distribution, 𝒩(0,1). For a pure noise image in the domain of our glyph dataset, this would be noise drawn from 16384 separate Gaussian distributions. You can see this in the previous animation. One thing to keep in mind is that we can choose the means of these noise distributions, i.e. center them, on specific values — the pixel values of an image, for instance.

For convenience, you’ll often find the noise distributions for image datasets written as a single multivariate distribution 𝒩(0,I) where I is the identity matrix, a covariance matrix with all diagonal entries equal to 1 and zeroes elsewhere. This is simply a compact notation for a set of multiple independent Gaussians — i.e. there are no correlations between the noise on different pixels. In the basic implementations of diffusion models, only uncorrelated (a.k.a. “isotropic”) noise is used. This article contains an excellent interactive introduction on multivariate Gaussians.

Diffusion process overview

Below is an adaptation of the somewhat-famous diagram from Ho et al.’s seminal paper “Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models” which gives an overview of the whole diffusion process:

Diagram of the diffusion process adapted from Ho et al. 2020. The glyph 锂, meaning “lithium”, is used as a representative sample from the dataset.

I found that there was a lot to unpack in this diagram and simply understanding what each component meant was very helpful, so let’s go through it and define everything step by step.

We previously used x q(x) to refer to our data. Here, we’ve added a subscript, xₜ, to denote timestep t indicating how many steps of “noising” have taken place. We refer to the samples noised a given timestep as x q(xₜ). x₀​ is clean data and xₜ (t = T) ∼ 𝒩(0,1) is pure noise.

We define a forward diffusion process whereby we corrupt samples with noise. This process is described by the distribution q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁). If we could access the hypothetical reverse process q(xₜ₋₁|xₜ), we could generate samples from noise. As we cannot access it directly because we would need to know x₀​, we use ML to learn the parameters, θ, of a model of this process, 𝑝θ(𝑥ₜ₋₁∣𝑥ₜ). (That should be p subscript θ but medium cannot render it.)

In the following sections we go into detail on how the forward and reverse diffusion processes work.

Forward diffusion, or “noising”

Used as a verb, “noising” an image refers to applying a transformation that moves it towards pure noise by scaling down its pixel values toward 0 while adding proportional Gaussian noise. Mathematically, this transformation is a multivariate Gaussian distribution centered on the pixel values of the preceding image.

In the forward diffusion process, this noising distribution is written as q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁) where the vertical bar symbol “|” is read as “given” or “conditional on”, to indicate the pixel means are passed forward from q(xₜ₋₁) At t = T where T is a large number (commonly 1000) we aim to end up with images of pure noise (which, somewhat confusingly, is also a Gaussian distribution, as discussed previously).

The marginal distributions q(xₜ) represent the distributions that have accumulated the effects of all the previous noising steps (marginalization refers to integration over all possible conditions, which recovers the unconditioned distribution).

Since the conditional distributions are Gaussian, what about their variances? They are determined by a variance schedule that maps timesteps to variance values. Initially, an empirically determined schedule of linearly increasing values from 0.0001 to 0.02 over 1000 steps was presented in Ho et al. Later research by Nichol & Dhariwal suggested an improved cosine schedule. They state that a schedule is most effective when the rate of information destruction through noising is relatively even per step throughout the whole noising process.

Forward diffusion intuition

As we encounter Gaussian distributions both as pure noise q(xₜ, t = T) and as the noising distribution q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁), I’ll try to draw the distinction by giving a visual intuition of the distribution for a single noising step, q(x₁∣x₀), for some arbitrary, structured 2-dimensional data:

Each noising step q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁) is a Gaussian distribution conditioned on the previous step.

The distribution q(x₁∣x₀) is Gaussian, centered around each point in x₀, shown in blue. Several example points x₀⁽ⁱ⁾ are picked to illustrate this, with q(x₁∣x₀ = x₀⁽ⁱ⁾) shown in orange.

In practice, the main usage of these distributions is to generate specific instances of noised samples for training (discussed further below). We can calculate the parameters of the noising distributions at any timestep t directly from the variance schedule, as the chain of Gaussians is itself also Gaussian. This is very convenient, as we don’t need to perform noising sequentially—for any given starting data x₀⁽ⁱ⁾, we can calculate the noised sample xₜ⁽ⁱ⁾ by sampling from q(xₜ∣x₀ = x₀⁽ⁱ⁾) directly.

Forward diffusion visualization

Let’s now return to our glyph dataset (once again using the UMAP visualization as a visual shorthand). The top row of the figure below shows our dataset sampled from distributions noised to various timesteps: xₜ ∼ q(xₜ). As we increase the number of noising steps, you can see that the dataset begins to resemble pure Gaussian noise. The bottom row visualizes the underlying probability distribution q(xₜ).

The dataset xₜ (above) sampled from its probability distribution q(xₜ) (below) at different noising timesteps.

Reverse diffusion overview

It follows that if we knew the reverse distributions q(xₜ₋₁∣xₜ), we could repeatedly subtract a small amount of noise, starting from a pure noise sample xₜ at t = T to arrive at a data sample x₀ ∼ q(x₀). In practice, however, we cannot access these distributions without knowing x₀ beforehand. Intuitively, it’s easy to make a known image much noisier, but given a very noisy image, it’s much harder to guess what the original image was.

So what are we to do? Since we have a large amount of data, we can train an ML model to accurately guess the original image that any given noisy image came from. Specifically, we learn the parameters θ of an ML model that approximates the reverse noising distributions, (xₜ₋₁ ∣ xₜ) for t = 0, …, T. In practice, this is embodied in a single noise prediction model trained over many different samples and timesteps. This allows it to denoise any given input, as shown in the figure below.

The ML model predicts added noise at any given timestep t.

Next, let’s go over how this noise prediction model is implemented and trained in practice.

How the model is implemented

First, we define the ML model — generally a deep neural network of some sort — that will act as our noise prediction model. This is what does the heavy lifting! In practice, any ML model that inputs and outputs data of the correct size can be used; the U-net, an architecture particularly suited to learning images, is what we use here and frequently chosen in practice. More recent models also use vision transformers.

We use the U-net architecture (Ronneberger et al. 2015) for our ML noise prediction model. We train the model by minimizing the difference between predicted and actual noise.

Then we run the training loop depicted in the figure above:

  • We take a random image from our dataset and noise it to a random timestep tt. (In practice, we speed things up by doing many examples in parallel!)
  • We feed the noised image into the ML model and train it to predict the (known to us) noise in the image. We also perform timestep conditioning by feeding the model a timestep embedding, a high-dimensional unique representation of the timestep, so that the model can distinguish between timesteps. This can be a vector the same size as our image directly added to the input (see here for a discussion of how this is implemented).
  • The model “learns” by minimizing the value of a loss function, some measure of the difference between the predicted and actual noise. The mean square error (the mean of the squares of the pixel-wise difference between the predicted and actual noise) is used in our case.
  • Repeat until the model is well trained.

Note: A neural network is essentially a function with a huge number of parameters (on the order of 10for the glyffuser). Neural network ML models are trained by iteratively updating their parameters using backpropagation to minimize a given loss function over many training data examples. This is an excellent introduction. These parameters effectively store the network’s “knowledge”.

A noise prediction model trained in this way eventually sees many different combinations of timesteps and data examples. The glyffuser, for example, was trained over 100 epochs (runs through the whole data set), so it saw around 2 million data samples. Through this process, the model implicity learns the reverse diffusion distributions over the entire dataset at all different timesteps. This allows the model to sample the underlying distribution q(x₀) by stepwise denoising starting from pure noise. Put another way, given an image noised to any given level, the model can predict how to reduce the noise based on its guess of what the original image. By doing this repeatedly, updating its guess of the original image each time, the model can transform any noise to a sample that lies in a high-probability region of the underlying data distribution.

Reverse diffusion in practice

We can now revisit this video of the glyffuser denoising process. Recall a large number of steps from sample to noise e.g. T = 1000 is used during training to make the noise-to-sample trajectory very easy for the model to learn, as changes between steps will be small. Does that mean we need to run 1000 denoising steps every time we want to generate a sample?

Luckily, this is not the case. Essentially, we can run the single-step noise prediction but then rescale it to any given step, although it might not be very good if the gap is too large! This allows us to approximate the full sampling trajectory with fewer steps. The video above uses 120 steps, for instance (most implementations will allow the user to set the number of sampling steps).

Recall that predicting the noise at a given step is equivalent to predicting the original image x₀, and that we can access the equation for any noised image deterministically using only the variance schedule and x₀. Thus, we can calculate xₜ₋ₖ based on any denoising step. The closer the steps are, the better the approximation will be.

Too few steps, however, and the results become worse as the steps become too large for the model to effectively approximate the denoising trajectory. If we only use 5 sampling steps, for example, the sampled characters don’t look very convincing at all:

There is then a whole literature on more advanced sampling methods beyond what we’ve discussed so far, allowing effective sampling with much fewer steps. These often reframe the sampling as a differential equation to be solved deterministically, giving an eerie quality to the sampling videos — I’ve included one at the end if you’re interested. In production-level models, these are usually preferred over the simple method discussed here, but the basic principle of deducing the noise-to-sample trajectory is the same. A full discussion is beyond the scope of this article but see e.g. this paper and its corresponding implementation in the Hugging Face diffusers library for more information.

Alternative intuition from score function

To me, it was still not 100% clear why training the model on noise prediction generalises so well. I found that an alternative interpretation of diffusion models known as “score-based modeling” filled some of the gaps in intuition (for more information, refer to Yang Song’s definitive article on the topic.)

The dataset xₜ sampled from its probability distribution q(xₜ) at different noising timesteps; below, we add the score function ∇ₓ log q(xₜ).

I try to give a visual intuition in the bottom row of the figure above: essentially, learning the noise in our diffusion model is equivalent (to a constant factor) to learning the score function, which is the gradient of the log of the probability distribution: ∇ₓ log q(x). As a gradient, the score function represents a vector field with vectors pointing towards the regions of highest probability density. Subtracting the noise at each step is then equivalent to moving following the directions in this vector field towards regions of high probability density.

As long as there is some signal, the score function effectively guides sampling, but in regions of low probability it tends towards zero as there is little to no gradient to follow. Using many steps to cover different noise levels allows us to avoid this, as we smear out the gradient field at high noise levels, allowing sampling to converge even if we start from low probability density regions of the distribution. The figure shows that as the noise level is increased, more of the domain is covered by the score function vector field.

Summary

  • The aim of diffusion models is learn the underlying probability distribution of a dataset and then be able to sample from it. This requires forward and reverse diffusion (noising) processes.
  • The forward noising process takes samples from our dataset and gradually adds Gaussian noise (pushes them off the data manifold). This forward process is computationally efficient because any level of noise can be added in closed form a single step.
  • The reverse noising process is challenging because we need to predict how to remove the noise at each step without knowing the original data point in advance. We train a ML model to do this by giving it many examples of data noised at different timesteps.
  • Using very small steps in the forward noising process makes it easier for the model to learn to reverse these steps, as the changes are small.
  • By applying the reverse noising process iteratively, the model refines noisy samples step by step, eventually producing a realistic data point (one that lies on the data manifold).

Takeaway

Diffusion models are a powerful framework for learning complex data distributions. The distributions are learnt implicitly by modelling a sequential denoising process. This process can then be used to generate samples similar to those in the training distribution.

Once you’ve trained a model, how do you get useful stuff out of it?

Earlier uses of generative AI such as “This Person Does Not Exist” (ca. 2019) made waves simply because it was the first time most people had seen AI-generated photorealistic human faces. A generative adversarial network or “GAN” was used in that case, but the principle remains the same: the model implicitly learnt a underlying data distribution — in that case, human faces — then sampled from it. So far, our glyffuser model does a similar thing: it samples randomly from the distribution of Chinese glyphs.

The question then arises: can we do something more useful than just sample randomly? You’ve likely already encountered text-to-image models such as Dall-E. They are able to incorporate extra meaning from text prompts into the diffusion process — this in known as conditioning. Likewise, diffusion models for scientific scientific applications like protein (e.g. Chroma, RFdiffusion, AlphaFold3) or inorganic crystal structure generation (e.g. MatterGen) become much more useful if can be conditioned to generate samples with desirable properties such as a specific symmetry, bulk modulus, or band gap.

Conditional distributions

We can consider conditioning as a way to guide the diffusion sampling process towards particular regions of our probability distribution. We mentioned conditional distributions in the context of forward diffusion. Below we show how conditioning can be thought of as reshaping a base distribution.

A simple example of a joint probability distribution p(x, y), shown as a contour map, along with its two marginal 1-D probability distributions, p(x) and p(y). The highest points of p(x, y) are at (x₁, y₁) and (x₂, y₂). The conditional distributions p(xy = y₁) and p(xy = y₂) are shown overlaid on the main plot.

Consider the figure above. Think of p(x) as a distribution we want to sample from (i.e., the images) and p(y) as conditioning information (i.e., the text dataset). These are the marginal distributions of a joint distribution p(x, y). Integrating p(x, y) over y recovers p(x), and vice versa.

Sampling from p(x), we are equally likely to get x₁ or x₂. However, we can condition on p(y = y₁) to obtain p(xy = y₁). You can think of this as taking a slice through p(x, y) at a given value of y. In this conditioned distribution, we are much more likely to sample at x₁ than x₂.

In practice, in order to condition on a text dataset, we need to convert the text into a numerical form. We can do this using large language model (LLM) embeddings that can be injected into the noise prediction model during training.

Embedding text with an LLM

In the glyffuser, our conditioning information is in the form of English text definitions. We have two requirements: 1) ML models prefer fixed-length vectors as input. 2) The numerical representation of our text must understand context — if we have the words “lithium” and “element” nearby, the meaning of “element” should be understood as “chemical element” rather than “heating element”. Both of these requirements can be met by using a pre-trained LLM.

The diagram below shows how an LLM converts text into fixed-length vectors. The text is first tokenized (LLMs break text into tokens, small chunks of characters, as their basic unit of interaction). Each token is converted into a base embedding, which is a fixed-length vector of the size of the LLM input. These vectors are then passed through the pre-trained LLM (here we use the encoder portion of Google’s T5 model), where they are imbued with additional contextual meaning. We end up with a array of n vectors of the same length d, i.e. a (n, d) sized tensor.

We can convert text to a numerical embedding imbued with contextual meaning using a pre-trained LLM.

Note: in some models, notably Dall-E, additional image-text alignment is performed using contrastive pretraining. Imagen seems to show that we can get away without doing this.

Training the diffusion model with text conditioning

The exact method that this embedding vector is injected into the model can vary. In Google’s Imagen model, for example, the embedding tensor is pooled (combined into a single vector in the embedding dimension) and added into the data as it passes through the noise prediction model; it is also included in a different way using cross-attention (a method of learning contextual information between sequences of tokens, most famously used in the transformer models that form the basis of LLMs like ChatGPT).

Conditioning information can be added via multiple different methods but the training loss remains the same.

In the glyffuser, we only use cross-attention to introduce this conditioning information. While a significant architectural change is required to introduce this additional information into the model, the loss function for our noise prediction model remains exactly the same.

Testing the conditioned diffusion model

Let’s do a simple test of the fully trained conditioned diffusion model. In the figure below, we try to denoise in a single step with the text prompt “Gold”. As touched upon in our interactive UMAP, Chinese characters often contain components known as radicals which can convey sound (phonetic radicals) or meaning (semantic radicals). A common semantic radical is derived from the character meaning “gold”, “金”, and is used in characters that are in some broad sense associated with gold or metals.

Even with a single sampling step, conditioning guides denoising towards the relevant regions of the probability distribution.

The figure shows that even though a single step is insufficient to approximate the denoising trajectory very well, we have moved into a region of our probability distribution with the “金” radical. This indicates that the text prompt is effectively guiding our sampling towards a region of the glyph probability distribution related to the meaning of the prompt. The animation below shows a 120 step denoising sequence for the same prompt, “Gold”. You can see that every generated glyph has either the 釒 or 钅 radical (the same radical in traditional and simplified Chinese, respectively).

Takeaway

Conditioning enables us to sample meaningful outputs from diffusion models.

Further remarks

I found that with the help of tutorials and existing libraries, it was possible to implement a working diffusion model despite not having a full understanding of what was going on under the hood. I think this is a good way to start learning and highly recommend Hugging Face’s tutorial on training a simple diffusion model using their diffusers Python library (which now includes my small bugfix!).

I’ve omitted some topics that are crucial to how production-grade diffusion models function, but are unnecessary for core understanding. One is the question of how to generate high resolution images. In our example, we did everything in pixel space, but this becomes very computationally expensive for large images. The general approach is to perform diffusion in a smaller space, then upscale it in a separate step. Methods include latent diffusion (used in Stable Diffusion) and cascaded super-resolution models (used in Imagen). Another topic is classifier-free guidance, a very elegant method for boosting the conditioning effect to give much better prompt adherence. I show the implementation in my previous post on the glyffuser and highly recommend this article if you want to learn more.

Further reading

A non-exhaustive list of materials I found very helpful:

Fun extras

Diffusion sampling using the DPMSolverSDEScheduler developed by Katherine Crowson and implemented in Hugging Face diffusers—note the smooth transition from noise to data.

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U.S. Energy Secretary and Slovakia’s Prime Minister Sign Agreement to Advance U.S.-Slovakia Civil Nuclear Program

WASHINGTON—U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico today signed an Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) to advance cooperation on Slovakia’s civil nuclear power program. This landmark agreement includes the development of a new, state-owned American 1,200 MWe nuclear unit at the Jaslovské Bohunice Nuclear Power Plant, deepening the U.S.-Slovakia strategic partnership and strengthening European energy security. The agreement builds on President Trump’s commitment to advancing American energy leadership. A project of this scale is expected to create thousands of American jobs across engineering, advanced manufacturing, construction, nuclear fuel services, and project management, while reinforcing U.S. supply chains and expanding access to global markets for American-made nuclear technology. These efforts lay the foundation for sustained U.S. engagement in Slovakia’s nuclear energy program and support future civil nuclear projects across the region. It also supports Slovakia’s efforts to diversify its energy supply, strengthen long-term energy security, and integrate advanced American nuclear technology into Central Europe’s energy infrastructure. “The United States is proud to partner with Slovakia as a trusted ally as we expand cooperation across the energy sector,” said Energy Secretary Chris Wright. “Today’s civil nuclear agreement reflects our shared commitment to strengthening European energy security and sovereignty for decades to come. By deploying America’s leading nuclear technology, we are creating thousands of good-paying American jobs, expanding global markets for U.S. nuclear companies, and driving economic growth at home”. “I see this moment as a significant milestone in our bilateral relations, but also as a clear signal that Slovakia and the United States are united by a common strategic thinking about the future of energy – about its safety, sustainability, and technological maturity,” said the Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic Robert Fico. The planned nuclear unit represents a multibillion-dollar energy infrastructure investment and one of the largest in

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Valero to Cut 200+ Jobs as California Refinery Closes

Valero Energy Corp. plans to let go of 237 employees at its Benicia refinery as it winds down operations at one of California’s few remaining fuel-making plants. Valero expects the shutdown to be permanent and 237 jobs will be cut March 15 to July 1, the company said in a letter to California’s employment regulator and local officials. Those losing jobs are not represented by a union and represent the bulk of the plant’s 348-person staff.  “We do not plan to coordinate services with the local workforce development board or any other entity,” refinery manager Lauren Bird, whose position is being eliminated, said in the letter. The Texas-based oil company announced in 2025 plans to close the plant and last-ditch efforts by Governor Gavin Newsom, regulators and local officials to keep the gates open were unsuccessful. Multiple California refineries have closed or converted to making biofuels in recent years, dwindling fuel supply in a state where drivers regularly pay the highest gasoline prices in the nation. Last week, Newsom praised plans by Valero to continue supplying the state with gasoline amid the shutdown, saying the decision to import fuel to the region was a constructive development from an earlier possibility of a full-on exit. WHAT DO YOU THINK? Generated by readers, the comments included herein do not reflect the views and opinions of Rigzone. All comments are subject to editorial review. Off-topic, inappropriate or insulting comments will be removed.

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Trump Administration Calls for Emergency Power Auction to Build Big Power Plants Again

WASHINGTON—U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, vice-chair and chair of the National Energy Dominance Council (NEDC) respectively, today joined Mid-Atlantic governors urging PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. (PJM) to temporarily overhaul its market rules to strengthen grid reliability and reduce electricity costs for American families and businesses by building more than $15 billion of reliable baseload power generation.  The initiative calls on PJM to conduct an emergency procurement auction to address escalating electricity prices and growing reliability risks across the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The action follows a series of PJM policies over the years that have weakened the electric grid, including the premature shutdown of reliable power generation.  President Trump declared a National Energy Emergency on his first day in office, warning that the previous administrations energy subtraction agenda left the country vulnerable to blackouts and soaring electricity prices. During the Biden administration, PJM forced nearly 17 gigawatts of reliable baseload power generation offline. For the first time in history, PJM’s capacity auction failed to secure enough generation resources to meet basic reliability requirements. If not fixed, it will lead to further rising prices and blackouts.  “High electricity prices are a choice,” said Energy Secretary Chris Wright. “The Biden administration’s forceful closures of coal and natural gas plants without reliable replacements left the United States in an energy emergency. Perhaps no region in America is more at risk than in PJM. That’s why President Trump asked governors across the Mid-Atlantic to come together and call upon PJM to allow America to build big reliable power plants again. Our directives will restore affordable and reliable electricity so American families thrive and America’s manufacturing industries once again boom. President Trump promised to unleash American energy and put the American people first. This plan keeps

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Russian Oil and Gas Revenue Falls to Lowest in 5 Years

Russia’s revenues from its oil and gas industry, vital to financing its war in Ukraine, dropped to a five-year low in 2025 as crude prices slumped and gas exports declined. The nation’s budget received a total of 8.48 trillion rubles ($108 billion) in oil and gas taxes last year, Finance Ministry said on Thursday. That’s 24 percent less than in 2024 and the lowest level since the start of the decade, historic figures show.  Russia, a top-three global oil producer and home to the world’s largest gas reserves, heavily relies on tax revenues from the two industries to fill its state coffers. The decline, mainly driven by a combination of weaker global oil prices, stronger ruble and energy sanctions against Russia, comes as the Kremlin has boosted military spending significantly above what it planned to fund the war, which is about to enter a fifth year. To bridge the widening gap between revenues and spending, the government in Moscow has eaten into more than half of the country’s National Wellbeing Fund – a buffer against economic shocks – and turned to expensive borrowings that will take years to pay back.   Oil revenues dropped more than 22 percent year on year to 7.13 trillion rubles, reaching the lowest level since 2023, Bloomberg calculations show. Concerns about an oversupply in the global crude market, and discounts for Russian barrels in particular due to western sanctions, hit the flow of money into state coffers. The official data show that the average price of Urals, Russia’s main oil-export blend, for tax purposes was $57.65 a barrel in 2025, a 15 percent drop from a year earlier.   Starting from November, when the US blacklisted two major oil producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, the discount of Urals to the Brent benchmark widened to about $27 a barrel at

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NVIDIA’s Rubin Redefines the AI Factory

The Architecture Shift: From “GPU Server” to “Rack-Scale Supercomputer” NVIDIA’s Rubin architecture is built around a single design thesis: “extreme co-design.” In practice, that means GPUs, CPUs, networking, security, software, power delivery, and cooling are architected together; treating the data center as the compute unit, not the individual server. That logic shows up most clearly in the NVL72 system. NVLink 6 serves as the scale-up spine, designed to let 72 GPUs communicate all-to-all with predictable latency, something NVIDIA argues is essential for mixture-of-experts routing and synchronization-heavy inference paths. NVIDIA is not vague about what this requires. Its technical materials describe the Rubin GPU as delivering 50 PFLOPS of NVFP4 inference and 35 PFLOPS of NVFP4 training, with 22 TB/s of HBM4 bandwidth and 3.6 TB/s of NVLink bandwidth per GPU. The point of that bandwidth is not headline-chasing. It is to prevent a rack from behaving like 72 loosely connected accelerators that stall on communication. NVIDIA wants the rack to function as a single engine because that is what it will take to drive down cost per token at scale. The New Idea NVIDIA Is Elevating: Inference Context Memory as Infrastructure If there is one genuinely new concept in the Rubin announcements, it is the elevation of context memory, and the admission that GPU memory alone will not carry the next wave of inference. NVIDIA describes a new tier called NVIDIA Inference Context Memory Storage, powered by BlueField-4, designed to persist and share inference state (such as KV caches) across requests and nodes for long-context and agentic workloads. NVIDIA says this AI-native context tier can boost tokens per second by up to 5× and improve power efficiency by up to 5× compared with traditional storage approaches. The implication is clear: the path to cheaper inference is not just faster GPUs.

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Power shortages, carbon capture, and AI automation: What’s ahead for data centers in 2026

“Despite a broader use of AI tools in enterprises and by consumers, that does not mean that AI compute, AI infrastructure in general, will be more evenly spread out,” said Daniel Bizo, research director at Uptime Institute, during the webinar. “The concentration of AI compute infrastructure is only increasing in the coming years.” For enterprises, the infrastructure investment remains relatively modest, Uptime Institute found. Enterprises will limit investment to inference and only some training, and inference workloads don’t require dramatic capacity increases. “Our prediction, our observation, was that the concentration of AI compute infrastructure is only increasing in the coming years by a couple of points. By the end of this year, 2026, we are projecting that around 10 gigawatts of new IT load will have been added to the global data center world, specifically to run generative AI workloads and adjacent workloads, but definitely centered on generative AI,” Bizo said. “This means these 10 gigawatts or so load, we are talking about anywhere between 13 to 15 million GPUs and accelerators deployed globally. We are anticipating that a majority of these are and will be deployed in supercomputing style.” 2. Developers will not outrun the power shortage The most pressing challenge facing the industry, according to Uptime, is that data centers can be built in less than three years, but power generation takes much longer. “It takes three to six years to deploy a solar or wind farm, around six years for a combined-cycle gas turbine plant, and even optimistically, it probably takes more than 10 years to deploy a conventional nuclear power plant,” said Max Smolaks, research analyst at Uptime Institute. This mismatch was manageable when data centers were smaller and growth was predictable, the report notes. But with projects now measured in tens and sometimes hundreds of

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Google warns transmission delays are now the biggest threat to data center expansion

The delays stem from aging transmission infrastructure unable to handle concentrated power demands. Building regional transmission lines currently takes seven to eleven years just for permitting, Hanna told the gathering. Southwest Power Pool has projected 115 days of potential loss of load if transmission infrastructure isn’t built to match demand growth, he added. These systemic delays are forcing enterprises to reconsider fundamental assumptions about cloud capacity. Regions including Northern Virginia and Santa Clara that were prime locations for hyperscale builds are running out of power capacity. The infrastructure constraints are also reshaping cloud competition around power access rather than technical capabilities. “This is no longer about who gets to market with the most GPU instances,” Gogia said. “It’s about who gets to the grid first.” Co-location emerges as a faster alternative to grid delays Unable to wait years for traditional grid connections, hyperscalers are pursuing co-location arrangements that place data centers directly adjacent to power plants, bypassing the transmission system entirely. Pricing for these arrangements has jumped 20% in power-constrained markets as demand outstrips availability, with costs flowing through to cloud customers via regional pricing differences, Gogia said. Google is exploring such arrangements, though Hanna said the company’s “strong preference is grid-connected load.” “This is a speed to power play for us,” he said, noting Google wants facilities to remain “front of the meter” to serve the broader grid rather than operating as isolated power sources. Other hyperscalers are negotiating directly with utilities, acquiring land near power plants, and exploring ownership stakes in power infrastructure from batteries to small modular nuclear reactors, Hanna said.

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OpenAI turns to Cerebras in a mega deal to scale AI inference infrastructure

Analysts expect AI workloads to grow more varied and more demanding in the coming years, driving the need for architectures tuned for inference performance and putting added pressure on data center networks. “This is prompting hyperscalers to diversify their computing systems, using Nvidia GPUs for general-purpose AI workloads, in-house AI accelerators for highly optimized tasks, and systems such as Cerebras for specialized low-latency workloads,” said Neil Shah, vice president for research at Counterpoint Research. As a result, AI platforms operating at hyperscale are pushing infrastructure providers away from monolithic, general-purpose clusters toward more tiered and heterogeneous infrastructure strategies. “OpenAI’s move toward Cerebras inference capacity reflects a broader shift in how AI data centers are being designed,” said Prabhu Ram, VP of the industry research group at Cybermedia Research. “This move is less about replacing Nvidia and more about diversification as inference scales.” At this level, infrastructure begins to resemble an AI factory, where city-scale power delivery, dense east–west networking, and low-latency interconnects matter more than peak FLOPS, Ram added. “At this magnitude, conventional rack density, cooling models, and hierarchical networks become impractical,” said Manish Rawat, semiconductor analyst at TechInsights. “Inference workloads generate continuous, latency-sensitive traffic rather than episodic training bursts, pushing architectures toward flatter network topologies, higher-radix switching, and tighter integration of compute, memory, and interconnect.”

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Cisco’s 2026 agenda prioritizes AI-ready infrastructure, connectivity

While most of the demand for AI data center capacity today comes from hyperscalers and neocloud providers, that will change as enterprise customers delve more into the AI networking world. “The other ecosystem members and enterprises themselves are becoming responsible for an increasing proportion of the AI infrastructure buildout as inferencing and agentic AI, sovereign cloud, and edge AI become more mainstream,” Katz wrote. More enterprises will move to host AI on premises via the introduction of AI agents that are designed to inject intelligent insight into applications and help improve operations. That’s where the AI impact on enterprise network traffic will appear, suggests Nolle. “Enterprises need to host AI to create AI network impact. Just accessing it doesn’t do much to traffic. Having cloud agents access local data center resources (RAG etc.) creates a governance issue for most corporate data, so that won’t go too far either,” Nolle said.  “Enterprises are looking at AI agents, not the way hyperscalers tout agentic AI, but agents running on small models, often open-source, and are locally hosted. This is where real AI traffic will develop, and Cisco could be vulnerable if they don’t understand this point and at least raise it in dialogs where AI hosting comes up,” Nolle said. “I don’t expect they’d go too far, because the real market for enterprise AI networking is probably a couple years out.” Meanwhile, observers expect Cisco to continue bolstering AI networking capabilities for enterprise branch, campus and data centers as well as hyperscalers, including through optical support and other gear.

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Microsoft tells communities it will ‘pay its way’ as AI data center resource usage sparks backlash

It will work with utilities and public commissions to set the rates it pays high enough to cover data center electricity costs (including build-outs, additions, and active use). “Our goal is straightforward: To ensure that the electricity cost of serving our data centers is not passed on to residential customers,” Smith emphasized. For example, the company is supporting a new rate structure Wisconsin that would charge a class of “very large customers,” including data centers, the true cost of the electricity required to serve them. It will collaborate “early, closely, and transparently” with local utilities to add electricity and supporting infrastructure to existing grids when needed. For instance, Microsoft has contracted with the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) to add 7.9GW of new electricity generation to the grid, “more than double our current consumption,” Smith noted. It will pursue ways to make data centers more efficient. For example, it is already experimenting with AI to improve planning, extract more electricity from existing infrastructure, improve system resilience, and speed development of new infrastructure and technologies (like nuclear energy). It will advocate for state and national public policies that ensure electricity access that is affordable, reliable, and sustainable in neighboring communities. Microsoft previously established priorities for electricity policy advocacy, Smith noted, but “progress has been uneven. This needs to change.” Microsoft is similarly committed when it comes to data center water use, promising four actions: Reducing the overall amount of water its data centers use, initially improving it by 40% by 2030. The company is exploring innovations in cooling, including closed-loop systems that recirculate cooling liquids. It will collaborate with local utilities to map out water, wastewater, and pressure needs, and will “fully fund” infrastructure required for growth. For instance, in Quincy, Washington, Microsoft helped construct a water reuse utility that recirculates

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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