Goldman Sachs Group Inc. flagged the possibility of higher oil and gas prices after the US struck Iran, even as the bank’s base-case outlook hinges on major disruptions to supplies from the region. If oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were to drop by half for a month, and remained 10% lower for another 11, Brent would spike briefly to as much as $110 a barrel, analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note. Should Iranian supply fall by 1.75 million barrels a day, Brent would peak at $90. The global oil market is trying to figure out the likely trajectory for energy prices as the crisis in the Middle East escalates. Crude futures are presently near $79 a barrel, having surged in early Asian trading after the US hit three Iranian nuclear sites at the weekend. Brent then pared some of its gains, with a renewed focus that actual flows are so far unhindered. “The economic incentives, including for the US and China, to try to prevent a sustained and very large disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would be strong,” the analysts said. The bank still assumes there’ll be no significant disruptions to flows, although “the downside risks to energy supply and the upside risk to our energy price forecasts have risen,” they said. Natural-gas markets are also seen at risk. European benchmark futures — known as the Title Transfer Facility, or TTF — may possibly rise closer to €74 per megawatt hours or about $25 per million British thermal units, a level that hurt demand during the 2022 European energy crisis, the analysts said. A hypothetical, large and sustained disruption of the strait would push natural gas toward €100 a megawatt hour, they said. The waterway connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, and is a vital conduit

Oil plunged by more than 7% as Iran’s response to US military strikes spared energy infrastructure, allaying investor concerns that the conflict would severely disrupt supplies from the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate slumped below $70 a barrel after Iran fired missiles at a US air base in Qatar in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s weekend airstrikes on three of its nuclear facilities. Traders had initially feared that Iran’s retaliatory response would involve a closure of the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes. The barrage was intercepted and did not result in any casualties, Qatar said. Prices traded in a $10-a-barrel range on Monday, first rising by more than 6% only to drop even more, underscoring just how on edge traders are and how critical every development in the region is to global energy markets. “Crude is pulling back as the market digests signs that energy infrastructure is not Iran’s first choice for retaliation,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “There are indications the US may have had advance warning of the strikes, suggesting this was more of a face-saving move than a true escalation.” The Middle East accounts for about a third of global crude production and there haven’t yet been any signs of disruption to physical oil flows, including for cargoes going through the Strait of Hormuz. Since Israel’s attacks began earlier this month, there have been signs that Iranian oil shipments out of the Gulf have risen rather than declined. While prices may be cooling for now, significant supply threats linger as tensions remain high across the Middle East. Saudi Arabia condemned Iran’s attack on Qatar and said it was ready to support Qatar with any measures it takes. Worries about demand are

Iran fired missiles at a US air base in Qatar after promising it would respond “proportionately and decisively” to President Donald Trump’s weekend airstrikes on three of its nuclear facilities. There were no reported casualties in the attack on Al Udeid base — the biggest such US facility in the Middle East — amid signs Iran gave advance notice of the strike plan. Qatar said the missile barrage was intercepted and the base had been evacuated in advance. Oil plunged on relief that Tehran’s limited response didn’t target energy supplies. The salvo marks another widening in the conflict that began 10 days ago when Israel attacked Iran, targeting nuclear and missile installations and military leaders. Iran has responded with several days of missile strikes on Israel, and the war threatened to escalate after the US joined the campaign with a bunker-buster bombing raid.  Iran’s move “looks like a largely symbolic retaliation,” saud Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg Economics’ chief emerging-market economist. “Plenty of warning was given — Qatar shut its airspace and the US issued warnings to citizens.” Trump said the nuclear sites struck by the US were totally destroyed, and vowed to meet any Iranian retaliation with force “far greater” than those weekend strikes. He also hinted at the possibility of “regime change” in Iran, though US officials stressed that isn’t their aim. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the strikes had the “limited” objective of eliminating Iran’s atomic program. Officials have said it’s too early to definitely assess damage. There was no immediate indication of how the US will respond to Monday’s Iranian missile launch. The administration was anticipating that Iran would retaliate, and doesn’t want more military engagement in the region, CNN cited a senior White House official as saying. The attack included at least six missiles fired toward Al

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission should limit who pays for the U.S. Department of Energy’s decision to keep a coal-fired power plant in Michigan operating past its planned retirement, according to comments filed at the agency on Friday. Further, there is no evidence that delaying the retirement of Consumer Energy’s majority-owned, 1,560-MW J.H. Campbell power plant will provide benefits to ratepayers in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator footprint, according to the Citizens Utility Board of Illinois and 15 other public interest groups. Forcing MISO customers to pay for a power plant that does not benefit them would violate the Federal Power Act’s cost causation requirement, the groups said in their comments. On May 21, DOE declared that there is an energy emergency in MISO’s northern and central regions and ordered that the Campbell plant should run until Aug. 21, past its planned May 30 shutdown date. The Michigan attorney general’s office and a coalition of advocacy groups last week asked DOE to reverse its order. Consumers Energy on June 6 filed a complaint at FERC seeking to establish a pathway for it to recover its costs to keep the plant in Michigan running. Currently, MISO lacks a mechanism to pay generators that run under DOE emergency orders, and the grid operator has no way to allocate those costs, according to Consumers. Consumers proposed allocating its costs related to DOE’s decision to ratepayers in MISO zones 1 to 7, which covers parts of Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana. MISO supported creating a cost-recovery mechanism for the DOE’s order on the Campbell plant, according to a filing at FERC. MISO said it did not intend to contest DOE’s characterization that a shortage of electricity or power plants has triggered an emergency in its footprint. However, MISO’s capacity

The United States Department of Energy has opened application for testing advanced nuclear reactors outside of national laboratories using the federal authorization process. “Seeking DOE authorization provided under the Atomic Energy Act will help unlock private funding and provide a fast-tracked approach to enable future commercial licensing activities for potential applicants”, the DOE said in a press release. The call for applications results from an order issued by President Donald Trump May 23 for reforming the national lab process for reactor testing, establishing a pilot program for reactor construction and operation outside of national labs and streamlining environmental reviews for reactor facilities. “With some rare and arguable exceptions, no advanced reactors have yet been deployed in America”, Trump said in the executive order. “I find that design, construction, operation, and disposition of such reactors under the auspices of the Department – and not to produce commercial electric power – would be for research purposes” rather than for demonstration of commercial viability, the president wrote. “The purpose of testing these reactors at this stage in America’s industrial evolution is to establish fundamental technological viability. “Thus, at least for the foreseeable future, advanced reactors over which the Department exercises sufficient control and that do not produce commercial electric power, including those ‘under contract with and for the account of the [Department],” 42 U.S.C. 2140(a)(2), fall within the jurisdiction of the Department, which has authority to foster research and development in nuclear reactors”. The order aims to have at least three advanced reactors achieve “criticality” by July 2026. U.S. law defines an advanced nuclear reactor as a fusion reactor or a radioisotope power system that uses heat from radioactive decay to generate energy. A nuclear fission reactor may also be considered an advanced reactor if it has significant improvements compared to reactors operating as of

In a statement posted on its site recently, the Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) revealed its latest preliminary crude oil and natural gas production figures. The preliminary reported total volume of crude oil in Texas in March was 121,361,548 barrels, according to the statement, which showed that the preliminary reported total volume of natural gas in the state during the same month was 918.4 billion cubic feet. The RRC noted in the statement that crude oil and natural gas production for March came from 157,192 oil wells and 83,898 gas wells. In its statement, the RRC highlighted that crude oil production reported by the RRC is limited to oil produced from oil leases and does not include condensate, which the organization said is reported separately by the RRC. The RRC also pointed out in the statement that preliminary figures are based on production volumes reported by operators and said they will be updated as late and corrected production reports are received. The RRC’s statement showed that the updated reported total volume of crude oil in Texas in March 2024 was 143,460,647 barrels. The preliminary reported total volume was 120,766,747 barrels, the statement highlighted. It showed that the updated reported total volume of natural gas in the state came in at 1.07 trillion cubic feet in March last year. The preliminary reported total volume was 931.5 billion cubic feet, the statement outlined. According to the RRC’s statement, Martin was Texas’ top crude oil producing county by preliminary production in March, with 20,235,596 barrels. Midland ranked second, with 17,514,942 barrels, Upton was third, with 7,866,736 barrels, Loving was fourth, with 7,395,973 barrels, Reeves was fifth, with 6,406,708 barrels, Karnes was sixth, with 5,980,867 barrels, Howard was seventh, with 5,760,904 barrels, Reagan was eighth, with 5,597,650 barrels, Andrews was ninth, with 4,590,526 barrels, and Glasscock