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Analysts Flag Key Price Determinant for Crude Oil

In a report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell late Tuesday, analysts at the bank, including Horsnell, noted that, in their view, the key price determinant for crude oil over the past week was the U.S. tariff announcement. “The downwards vortex set in play by the announcement took Brent […]

In a report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell late Tuesday, analysts at the bank, including Horsnell, noted that, in their view, the key price determinant for crude oil over the past week was the U.S. tariff announcement.

“The downwards vortex set in play by the announcement took Brent prices lower by more than $12 per barrel over just four trading days from the 2 April intra-day high ($74.95 per barrel) to the 7 April intra-day low of $62.51 per barrel,” the analysts said in the report.

“Brent 30-trading day realized annualized volatility rose by 15.2 percentage points week on week to 35.7 percent at settlement on 7 April, with 10-trading day volatility rising 34 percentage points to 47.3 percent over the same period,” they added.

“In all, we saw a sharp fall at the front of the curve accompanied by large trading ranges on the way down,” they continued.

The Standard Chartered Bank analysts highlighted in the report that they have been asked by clients whether the scale of the fall was justified. They noted in the report that, in their view, “given market positioning and normal market dynamics, the fall was fully justified and could have gone significantly further.”

“The U.S. tariff announcement was a severe shock to a market that was predominantly of the view that tariff rates would be limited, well-thought out, likely delayed and rapidly negotiated away, and would still lie within the ambit of the normal staid range of international trade diplomacy,” they added.

“What was announced did not conform with the dominant oil market consensus view. Instead, the market immediately started to price in a significant reduction in expectations of global GDP, with U.S. recessionary risk in particular marked sharply higher,” they continued.

The analysts stated in the report that oil markets are particularly sensitive to sudden discounting of global GDP expectations. They pointed out that this is “a theme that showed itself strongly from the oil price watersheds in 2008 and 2020 and which has now re-emerged”.

“After the initial push lower due to the sudden shift in GDP growth expectations, a series of other factors accelerated the decline,” the Standard Chartered Bank analysts said in the report.

“A general risk-off environment led to positions being reduced by money-managers in particular, who had added 172 million barrels to their crude oil longs in the three weeks before the tariff announcement, including 66 million barrels in the week prior to the announcement,” they added.

The analysts noted in the report that they think almost all of the new long positions were closed out very rapidly.

“A further acceleration in the decline came when prices fell into the zone where potential gamma effects are at their greatest,” they said.

“We showed this zone in an earlier report … noting that the market had survived some gamma effects in early March when the 2025 WTI futures strip fell below $65 per barrel and started biting into the distribution of producer put options,” they added.

“This time there was to be no reprieve, with the 2025 WTI strip falling below $60 per barrel; the sudden price fall, together with the sharp increase in volatility, meant that banks had to sell large volumes of crude futures in order to manage the positions they held as a result of providing hedges to producers,” they continued.

“The gamma effects become a positive when prices rise and volatility subsides, but they proved a highly significant depressive factor in a short time frame during the move following the U.S. tariff announcement,” they went on to state.

The Standard Chartered Bank analysts also noted in the report that the latest positioning data shows a further drift towards long crude oil positions but added that the next data is likely to be very different.

“The latest positioning data relates to 1 April, the day before the announcement of new U.S. tariffs; next week’s data is likely to look radically different after the heavy net selling of recent days,” the analysts said.

“The 1 April data is the last snapshot of a set of relatively positive oil market dynamics that would soon be swept away, but it is notable that they showed a shift to greater positivity from money managers on crude oil,” the analysts added.

“This was particularly evident in Brent, with our ICE Brent money-manager positioning index advancing 29.3 week on week to +71.1, which is the most positive reading since May 2018,” they continued.

The analysts went on to state in the report that the overall crude oil index moved into positive territory, “gaining 20.0 week on week to +12.2”, and pointed out that “for the first time since April 2024, crude oil moved to the top of the ranking of money-manager preferences across energy contracts”.

“This general move to a more balanced fund view of crude oil was described in an earlier report … however, the basis for that reappraisal has since been removed by changes in U.S. tariff policy and in OPEC+ policy,” the analysts added in the report.

In a research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team late Monday, J.P. Morgan said the estimated value of open interest across energy markets “declined by -$43.5 billion week on week (seven percent week on week), despite contract-based inflows, as crude oil prices declined by over -12 percent week on week”.

“Contract-based inflows reached~$11.6 billion week on week, largely into crude markets ($13 billion week on week) while outflows departed natural gas markets (-$2.3 billion week on week),” it added.

“Our oil strategists flag that a potential trade war could reduce 2025 U.S. and global GDP by 0.5 percent-pt, lowering global oil demand by 250,000 barrels per day,” it continued.

Rigzone has contacted the White House for comment on Standard Chartered Bank’s report and the JPM Commodities Research team note. Rigzone has also contacted OPEC for comment on the Standard Chartered Bank report. At the time of writing, the White House and OPEC have not responded to Rigzone.

Standard Chartered Bank’s report showed that the company is forecasting that the ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price will average $77 per barrel in 2025 and $85 per barrel in 2026. The company is projecting that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $75 per barrel this year and $82 per barrel next year, the report outlined.

A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on Friday showed that J.P. Morgan expected the Brent crude price to average $73 per barrel in 2025 and $61 per barrel in 2026 and the WTI crude price to average $69 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2026.

To contact the author, email [email protected]

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IP Fabric 7.9 boosts visibility across hybrid environments

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Crude Settles Higher After Volatile Week

Oil edged higher at the end of a volatile week, as traders weighed tensions in Iran and positive sentiment in wider markets. West Texas Intermediate settled near $60 a barrel after plunging 4.6% on Thursday, the most since June. President Donald Trump said in a social media post that he “greatly” respects Iran’s decision to cancel scheduled hangings of protesters. His rhetoric over recent days has reduced expectations of an immediate US response to violent protests in the Islamic Republic, which could have led to disruptions to the country’s roughly 3.3 million barrel-per-day oil production, as well as shipping. Nevertheless, Washington is boosting its military presence in the Middle East. At least one aircraft carrier is moving into the region and other military assets are expected to be shifted there in the coming days and weeks, Fox News reported, citing military sources. Traders have in the past covered bearish wagers ahead of the weekend in periods of heightened geopolitical risks. “While the risk of imminent intervention from the US against Iran has subsided, it’s pretty clear that the risk is still present, which should keep the market on its toes in the short term,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV. “However, the longer this goes on without a US response, the risk premium will continue to evaporate, allowing more bearish fundamentals to take center stage.” Disruption to Kazakh exports from the Black Sea, short-term tightness in the North Sea and a host of financial flows from options markets to commodity index rebalancing have also helped lift an oil market coming off its biggest drop since 2020 on rising supplies. In a sign that lower prices are starting to bite, Harold Hamm, the billionaire wildcatter who helped kick off the US shale revolution, said his firm

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U.S. Energy Secretary and Slovakia’s Prime Minister Sign Agreement to Advance U.S.-Slovakia Civil Nuclear Program

WASHINGTON—U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico today signed an Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) to advance cooperation on Slovakia’s civil nuclear power program. This landmark agreement includes the development of a new, state-owned American 1,200 MWe nuclear unit at the Jaslovské Bohunice Nuclear Power Plant, deepening the U.S.-Slovakia strategic partnership and strengthening European energy security. The agreement builds on President Trump’s commitment to advancing American energy leadership. A project of this scale is expected to create thousands of American jobs across engineering, advanced manufacturing, construction, nuclear fuel services, and project management, while reinforcing U.S. supply chains and expanding access to global markets for American-made nuclear technology. These efforts lay the foundation for sustained U.S. engagement in Slovakia’s nuclear energy program and support future civil nuclear projects across the region. It also supports Slovakia’s efforts to diversify its energy supply, strengthen long-term energy security, and integrate advanced American nuclear technology into Central Europe’s energy infrastructure. “The United States is proud to partner with Slovakia as a trusted ally as we expand cooperation across the energy sector,” said Energy Secretary Chris Wright. “Today’s civil nuclear agreement reflects our shared commitment to strengthening European energy security and sovereignty for decades to come. By deploying America’s leading nuclear technology, we are creating thousands of good-paying American jobs, expanding global markets for U.S. nuclear companies, and driving economic growth at home”. “I see this moment as a significant milestone in our bilateral relations, but also as a clear signal that Slovakia and the United States are united by a common strategic thinking about the future of energy – about its safety, sustainability, and technological maturity,” said the Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic Robert Fico. The planned nuclear unit represents a multibillion-dollar energy infrastructure investment and one of the largest in

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Valero to Cut 200+ Jobs as California Refinery Closes

Valero Energy Corp. plans to let go of 237 employees at its Benicia refinery as it winds down operations at one of California’s few remaining fuel-making plants. Valero expects the shutdown to be permanent and 237 jobs will be cut March 15 to July 1, the company said in a letter to California’s employment regulator and local officials. Those losing jobs are not represented by a union and represent the bulk of the plant’s 348-person staff.  “We do not plan to coordinate services with the local workforce development board or any other entity,” refinery manager Lauren Bird, whose position is being eliminated, said in the letter. The Texas-based oil company announced in 2025 plans to close the plant and last-ditch efforts by Governor Gavin Newsom, regulators and local officials to keep the gates open were unsuccessful. Multiple California refineries have closed or converted to making biofuels in recent years, dwindling fuel supply in a state where drivers regularly pay the highest gasoline prices in the nation. Last week, Newsom praised plans by Valero to continue supplying the state with gasoline amid the shutdown, saying the decision to import fuel to the region was a constructive development from an earlier possibility of a full-on exit. WHAT DO YOU THINK? Generated by readers, the comments included herein do not reflect the views and opinions of Rigzone. All comments are subject to editorial review. Off-topic, inappropriate or insulting comments will be removed.

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Trump Administration Calls for Emergency Power Auction to Build Big Power Plants Again

WASHINGTON—U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, vice-chair and chair of the National Energy Dominance Council (NEDC) respectively, today joined Mid-Atlantic governors urging PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. (PJM) to temporarily overhaul its market rules to strengthen grid reliability and reduce electricity costs for American families and businesses by building more than $15 billion of reliable baseload power generation.  The initiative calls on PJM to conduct an emergency procurement auction to address escalating electricity prices and growing reliability risks across the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The action follows a series of PJM policies over the years that have weakened the electric grid, including the premature shutdown of reliable power generation.  President Trump declared a National Energy Emergency on his first day in office, warning that the previous administrations energy subtraction agenda left the country vulnerable to blackouts and soaring electricity prices. During the Biden administration, PJM forced nearly 17 gigawatts of reliable baseload power generation offline. For the first time in history, PJM’s capacity auction failed to secure enough generation resources to meet basic reliability requirements. If not fixed, it will lead to further rising prices and blackouts.  “High electricity prices are a choice,” said Energy Secretary Chris Wright. “The Biden administration’s forceful closures of coal and natural gas plants without reliable replacements left the United States in an energy emergency. Perhaps no region in America is more at risk than in PJM. That’s why President Trump asked governors across the Mid-Atlantic to come together and call upon PJM to allow America to build big reliable power plants again. Our directives will restore affordable and reliable electricity so American families thrive and America’s manufacturing industries once again boom. President Trump promised to unleash American energy and put the American people first. This plan keeps

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Russian Oil and Gas Revenue Falls to Lowest in 5 Years

Russia’s revenues from its oil and gas industry, vital to financing its war in Ukraine, dropped to a five-year low in 2025 as crude prices slumped and gas exports declined. The nation’s budget received a total of 8.48 trillion rubles ($108 billion) in oil and gas taxes last year, Finance Ministry said on Thursday. That’s 24 percent less than in 2024 and the lowest level since the start of the decade, historic figures show.  Russia, a top-three global oil producer and home to the world’s largest gas reserves, heavily relies on tax revenues from the two industries to fill its state coffers. The decline, mainly driven by a combination of weaker global oil prices, stronger ruble and energy sanctions against Russia, comes as the Kremlin has boosted military spending significantly above what it planned to fund the war, which is about to enter a fifth year. To bridge the widening gap between revenues and spending, the government in Moscow has eaten into more than half of the country’s National Wellbeing Fund – a buffer against economic shocks – and turned to expensive borrowings that will take years to pay back.   Oil revenues dropped more than 22 percent year on year to 7.13 trillion rubles, reaching the lowest level since 2023, Bloomberg calculations show. Concerns about an oversupply in the global crude market, and discounts for Russian barrels in particular due to western sanctions, hit the flow of money into state coffers. The official data show that the average price of Urals, Russia’s main oil-export blend, for tax purposes was $57.65 a barrel in 2025, a 15 percent drop from a year earlier.   Starting from November, when the US blacklisted two major oil producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, the discount of Urals to the Brent benchmark widened to about $27 a barrel at

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Hamm to Halt Drilling in Bakken Shale

(Update) January 16, 2026, 3:39 PM GMT: Article updated with context throughout. Harold Hamm, the billionaire wildcatter who helped kick off the US shale oil revolution, said he’s about to shut down his company’s drilling in North Dakota’s Bakken for the first time in decades because of low crude prices. “This will be the first time in over 30 years that Harold Hamm has not had an operation with drilling rigs in North Dakota,” Hamm, the founder of shale driller Continental Resources Inc., said in a telephone interview Thursday. “There’s no need to drill it when margins are basically gone.” It’s a significant milestone for the Bakken. The shale patch in North Dakota is where Hamm, 80, first proved that fracking and horizontal drilling techniques could be successfully applied to previously untouchable oil reserves. The fracking revolution ushered in a new growth era in US oil and the country went on to become the world’s top producer. Operators in the US shale patch, once the world’s leader in oil production growth, are now closely watching commodity prices as they hover near the level that makes drilling profitable for producers. If prices drop into the low $50-per-barrel range for several months, companies are expected to make more drastic cuts to drilling and fracking.  While each shale basin has different cost levels, the Bakken in particular is seen as a bellwether for the direction of US crude output. The average well in the Bakken requires a minimum of $58 a barrel to cover costs and generate a small profit, according to a report from BloombergNEF. That’s up almost 4% from a year earlier, largely due to rising drilling expenses. Meanwhile global oil prices have steadily declined in the past several months on expectations of a glut. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, has fallen

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NVIDIA’s Rubin Redefines the AI Factory

The Architecture Shift: From “GPU Server” to “Rack-Scale Supercomputer” NVIDIA’s Rubin architecture is built around a single design thesis: “extreme co-design.” In practice, that means GPUs, CPUs, networking, security, software, power delivery, and cooling are architected together; treating the data center as the compute unit, not the individual server. That logic shows up most clearly in the NVL72 system. NVLink 6 serves as the scale-up spine, designed to let 72 GPUs communicate all-to-all with predictable latency, something NVIDIA argues is essential for mixture-of-experts routing and synchronization-heavy inference paths. NVIDIA is not vague about what this requires. Its technical materials describe the Rubin GPU as delivering 50 PFLOPS of NVFP4 inference and 35 PFLOPS of NVFP4 training, with 22 TB/s of HBM4 bandwidth and 3.6 TB/s of NVLink bandwidth per GPU. The point of that bandwidth is not headline-chasing. It is to prevent a rack from behaving like 72 loosely connected accelerators that stall on communication. NVIDIA wants the rack to function as a single engine because that is what it will take to drive down cost per token at scale. The New Idea NVIDIA Is Elevating: Inference Context Memory as Infrastructure If there is one genuinely new concept in the Rubin announcements, it is the elevation of context memory, and the admission that GPU memory alone will not carry the next wave of inference. NVIDIA describes a new tier called NVIDIA Inference Context Memory Storage, powered by BlueField-4, designed to persist and share inference state (such as KV caches) across requests and nodes for long-context and agentic workloads. NVIDIA says this AI-native context tier can boost tokens per second by up to 5× and improve power efficiency by up to 5× compared with traditional storage approaches. The implication is clear: the path to cheaper inference is not just faster GPUs.

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Power shortages, carbon capture, and AI automation: What’s ahead for data centers in 2026

“Despite a broader use of AI tools in enterprises and by consumers, that does not mean that AI compute, AI infrastructure in general, will be more evenly spread out,” said Daniel Bizo, research director at Uptime Institute, during the webinar. “The concentration of AI compute infrastructure is only increasing in the coming years.” For enterprises, the infrastructure investment remains relatively modest, Uptime Institute found. Enterprises will limit investment to inference and only some training, and inference workloads don’t require dramatic capacity increases. “Our prediction, our observation, was that the concentration of AI compute infrastructure is only increasing in the coming years by a couple of points. By the end of this year, 2026, we are projecting that around 10 gigawatts of new IT load will have been added to the global data center world, specifically to run generative AI workloads and adjacent workloads, but definitely centered on generative AI,” Bizo said. “This means these 10 gigawatts or so load, we are talking about anywhere between 13 to 15 million GPUs and accelerators deployed globally. We are anticipating that a majority of these are and will be deployed in supercomputing style.” 2. Developers will not outrun the power shortage The most pressing challenge facing the industry, according to Uptime, is that data centers can be built in less than three years, but power generation takes much longer. “It takes three to six years to deploy a solar or wind farm, around six years for a combined-cycle gas turbine plant, and even optimistically, it probably takes more than 10 years to deploy a conventional nuclear power plant,” said Max Smolaks, research analyst at Uptime Institute. This mismatch was manageable when data centers were smaller and growth was predictable, the report notes. But with projects now measured in tens and sometimes hundreds of

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Google warns transmission delays are now the biggest threat to data center expansion

The delays stem from aging transmission infrastructure unable to handle concentrated power demands. Building regional transmission lines currently takes seven to eleven years just for permitting, Hanna told the gathering. Southwest Power Pool has projected 115 days of potential loss of load if transmission infrastructure isn’t built to match demand growth, he added. These systemic delays are forcing enterprises to reconsider fundamental assumptions about cloud capacity. Regions including Northern Virginia and Santa Clara that were prime locations for hyperscale builds are running out of power capacity. The infrastructure constraints are also reshaping cloud competition around power access rather than technical capabilities. “This is no longer about who gets to market with the most GPU instances,” Gogia said. “It’s about who gets to the grid first.” Co-location emerges as a faster alternative to grid delays Unable to wait years for traditional grid connections, hyperscalers are pursuing co-location arrangements that place data centers directly adjacent to power plants, bypassing the transmission system entirely. Pricing for these arrangements has jumped 20% in power-constrained markets as demand outstrips availability, with costs flowing through to cloud customers via regional pricing differences, Gogia said. Google is exploring such arrangements, though Hanna said the company’s “strong preference is grid-connected load.” “This is a speed to power play for us,” he said, noting Google wants facilities to remain “front of the meter” to serve the broader grid rather than operating as isolated power sources. Other hyperscalers are negotiating directly with utilities, acquiring land near power plants, and exploring ownership stakes in power infrastructure from batteries to small modular nuclear reactors, Hanna said.

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OpenAI turns to Cerebras in a mega deal to scale AI inference infrastructure

Analysts expect AI workloads to grow more varied and more demanding in the coming years, driving the need for architectures tuned for inference performance and putting added pressure on data center networks. “This is prompting hyperscalers to diversify their computing systems, using Nvidia GPUs for general-purpose AI workloads, in-house AI accelerators for highly optimized tasks, and systems such as Cerebras for specialized low-latency workloads,” said Neil Shah, vice president for research at Counterpoint Research. As a result, AI platforms operating at hyperscale are pushing infrastructure providers away from monolithic, general-purpose clusters toward more tiered and heterogeneous infrastructure strategies. “OpenAI’s move toward Cerebras inference capacity reflects a broader shift in how AI data centers are being designed,” said Prabhu Ram, VP of the industry research group at Cybermedia Research. “This move is less about replacing Nvidia and more about diversification as inference scales.” At this level, infrastructure begins to resemble an AI factory, where city-scale power delivery, dense east–west networking, and low-latency interconnects matter more than peak FLOPS, Ram added. “At this magnitude, conventional rack density, cooling models, and hierarchical networks become impractical,” said Manish Rawat, semiconductor analyst at TechInsights. “Inference workloads generate continuous, latency-sensitive traffic rather than episodic training bursts, pushing architectures toward flatter network topologies, higher-radix switching, and tighter integration of compute, memory, and interconnect.”

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Cisco’s 2026 agenda prioritizes AI-ready infrastructure, connectivity

While most of the demand for AI data center capacity today comes from hyperscalers and neocloud providers, that will change as enterprise customers delve more into the AI networking world. “The other ecosystem members and enterprises themselves are becoming responsible for an increasing proportion of the AI infrastructure buildout as inferencing and agentic AI, sovereign cloud, and edge AI become more mainstream,” Katz wrote. More enterprises will move to host AI on premises via the introduction of AI agents that are designed to inject intelligent insight into applications and help improve operations. That’s where the AI impact on enterprise network traffic will appear, suggests Nolle. “Enterprises need to host AI to create AI network impact. Just accessing it doesn’t do much to traffic. Having cloud agents access local data center resources (RAG etc.) creates a governance issue for most corporate data, so that won’t go too far either,” Nolle said.  “Enterprises are looking at AI agents, not the way hyperscalers tout agentic AI, but agents running on small models, often open-source, and are locally hosted. This is where real AI traffic will develop, and Cisco could be vulnerable if they don’t understand this point and at least raise it in dialogs where AI hosting comes up,” Nolle said. “I don’t expect they’d go too far, because the real market for enterprise AI networking is probably a couple years out.” Meanwhile, observers expect Cisco to continue bolstering AI networking capabilities for enterprise branch, campus and data centers as well as hyperscalers, including through optical support and other gear.

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Microsoft tells communities it will ‘pay its way’ as AI data center resource usage sparks backlash

It will work with utilities and public commissions to set the rates it pays high enough to cover data center electricity costs (including build-outs, additions, and active use). “Our goal is straightforward: To ensure that the electricity cost of serving our data centers is not passed on to residential customers,” Smith emphasized. For example, the company is supporting a new rate structure Wisconsin that would charge a class of “very large customers,” including data centers, the true cost of the electricity required to serve them. It will collaborate “early, closely, and transparently” with local utilities to add electricity and supporting infrastructure to existing grids when needed. For instance, Microsoft has contracted with the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) to add 7.9GW of new electricity generation to the grid, “more than double our current consumption,” Smith noted. It will pursue ways to make data centers more efficient. For example, it is already experimenting with AI to improve planning, extract more electricity from existing infrastructure, improve system resilience, and speed development of new infrastructure and technologies (like nuclear energy). It will advocate for state and national public policies that ensure electricity access that is affordable, reliable, and sustainable in neighboring communities. Microsoft previously established priorities for electricity policy advocacy, Smith noted, but “progress has been uneven. This needs to change.” Microsoft is similarly committed when it comes to data center water use, promising four actions: Reducing the overall amount of water its data centers use, initially improving it by 40% by 2030. The company is exploring innovations in cooling, including closed-loop systems that recirculate cooling liquids. It will collaborate with local utilities to map out water, wastewater, and pressure needs, and will “fully fund” infrastructure required for growth. For instance, in Quincy, Washington, Microsoft helped construct a water reuse utility that recirculates

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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