
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Thursday, BMI projected that the Henry Hub price will average $3.2 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $3.6 per MMBtu in 2026, $3.8 per MMBtu in 2027, and $4 per MMBtu across 2028 and 2029.
A Bloomberg consensus included in the report forecast that the commodity will average $3.7 per MMBtu this year, $3.9 per MMBtu next year, $4.1 per MMBtu in 2027, $3.9 per MMBtu in 2028, and $4 per MMBtu in 2029.
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on February 10, BMI projected that the Henry Hub price would average $3.4 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.8 per MMBtu across 2026 and 2027, and $4 per MMBtu across 2028 and 2029.
A Bloomberg consensus included in that report forecast that the commodity would come in at $3.4 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.7 per MMBtu in 2026, $3.8 per MMBtu in 2027, and $4 per MMBtu in 2028. That Bloomberg consensus did not include a Henry Hub price projection for 2029.
“Due to the rapid natural gas stockpile build and a looser fundamental outlook we have revised our 2025 Henry Hub annual average price forecast to $3.2 per MMBtu, 5.9 percent lower than our previous forecast,” BMI analysts stated in the BMI report sent to Rigzone on Thursday.
“U.S. natural gas prices are down 21.7 percent since the start of the year, as soft demand to end the heating season faces continued production growth,” they added.
In the report, BMI analysts said an early end to the heating season saw natural gas in storage build by the middle of March, “several weeks earlier than historic trends”.
“This led to a sharp drop in Henry Hub prices since then, falling by 28 percent to $2.95 per MMBtu. This comes despite the U.S. consumption rising by 5.1 percent in January over the same month in 2024,” the analysts added.
“U.S. natural gas exports continue to present upside risks to prices with monthly LNG and pipeline exports both rising in January 2025 despite the previous quarter registering a year on year decline,” they continued.
“However, headwinds for natural gas prices are mounting as U.S. trade policy threatens to stymie economic growth and energy consumption in 2025. The strong price gains seen over Q1 2025 should still support annual price gains of 33 percent in 2025 over 2024,” the BMI analysts went on to note.
Rigzone has contacted the White House, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the American Petroleum Institute (API) for comment on BMI’s report. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.
A report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell on Tuesday showed that Standard Chartered sees the NYMEX basis nearby future Henry Hub U.S. natural gas price averaging $3.35 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.30 per MMBtu in 2026, and $2.90 per MMBtu in 2027.
In that report, Standard Chartered projected that the commodity will come in at $3.50 per MMBtu across the second and third quarters of this year, $3.20 per MMBtu across the fourth quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026, $3.70 per MMBtu in the second quarter of next year, and $3.50 per MMBtu in the third quarter of 2026.
A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on May 3 showed that J.P. Morgan expected the U.S. natural gas Henry Hub price to average $3.80 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.31 per MMBtu in 2026.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on April 10.
According to its April STEO, the EIA now sees the Henry Hub spot price averaging $4.27 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.60 per MMBtu in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in March, the EIA saw the Henry Hub spot price averaging $4.19 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.47 per MMBtu in 2026.
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