In a natural gas focused EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Friday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, warned that late December heating demand “continues to disintegrate”. “Yesterday’s 177 billion cubic foot withdrawal did little to stop the massive sell-off in natural gas, with the NYMEX front-month plummeting to close at a seven-week low of $4.231 [per million British thermal units (MMBtu)],” Rubin said in the report. “Although a frigid early December may erode storage surpluses over the next two EIA [U.S. Energy Information Administration] reports, the market is focused on eroding late-December heating demand,” he added. In the report, Rubin noted that the week leading into Christmas “shed another seven gHDDs over the past 24 hours, with exceptionally mild weather anticipated across the country in the back half of the month”. “Daily demand may still surge into Sunday’s peak – but is expected to plunge 26 billion cubic feet per day [Bcfpd] into mid-next week, likely delivering a blow to physical gas prices,” he added. Rubin went on to warn in the report that technicals also appear weak, “with prices falling below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages”. “Shorts may take profits off the table ahead of the weekend, and medium to long term fundamentals appear more supportive than recent price action suggests, but momentum is bearish and this week’s 133 billion cubic foot loss of weather-driven demand will leave an enduring mark on NYMEX futures,” he said. This EBW report highlighted that the January natural gas contract closed at $4.231 per MMBtu on Thursday. It outlined that this was down 36.4 cents, or 7.9 percent, from Wednesday’s close. In an EBW report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on December 10, Rubin highlighted that a “weather collapse

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on December 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its Brent price forecast for 2025 and 2026 but still projected that the commodity will drop next year compared to 2025. According to its December STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $68.91 per barrel this year and $55.08 per barrel next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in November, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $68.76 per barrel in 2025 and $54.92 per barrel in 2026. The EIA’s October STEO forecast that the commodity would average $68.64 per barrel this year and $52.16 per barrel next year, and its September STEO saw the commodity coming in at $67.80 per barrel in 2025 and $51.43 per barrel in 2026. A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that the Brent spot price will average $63.10 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $54.93 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $54.02 per barrel in the second quarter, $55.32 per barrel in the third quarter, and $56.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. The commodity averaged $75.83 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $68.01 per barrel in the second quarter, and $69.00 per barrel in the third quarter, the EIA’s December STEO showed. It also pointed out that the Brent spot price averaged $80.56 per barrel overall last year. In its December STEO, the EIA highlighted that the Brent crude oil spot price averaged $64 per barrel in November, which it pointed out was $11 per barrel lower than in November 2024. “Crude oil prices continue to fall as growing crude oil production outweighs the effect of increased drone attacks

BP PLC said Thursday it has put onstream an expansion project in the Atlantis field in the Gulf of America that will add 15,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day to the deepwater development’s production capacity. Atlantis Drill Center 1 Expansion, BP’s “seventh upstream major project startup of the year”, ties back two wells to the subsea hub via new pipelines, according to the British operator. Atlantis, discovered 1998, has been producing for nearly 20 years and has one of BP’s longest-running platforms in the U.S. Gulf. The field also contains BP’s deepest moored floating platform in the U.S. Gulf, operating in 7,074 feet of water about 150 miles south of New Orleans, according to the company. Atlantis currently has a declared peak output of 200,000 barrels of oil and 180 million cubic feet of gas per day. “Atlantis Drill Center 1 caps off an excellent year of seven major project start-ups for BP. This project supports our plans to safely grow our upstream business, which includes increasing U.S. production to around one million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030”, Gordon Birrell, BP executive vice president for production and operations, said in an online statement. BP said, “BP delivered the Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion project two months ahead of its original schedule by utilizing existing subsea inventory, drilling and completing wells more efficiently, and streamlining offshore execution planning. This is BP’s fifth major startup that has been delivered ahead of schedule this year”. Atlantis Drill Center 1 Expansion is one of three U.S. Gulf projects on a list of 10 upstream projects across BP’s global portfolio that the company aims to complete by 2027. On August 4 BP announced the start of production at Argos Southwest Extension, adding 20,000 bpd of capacity to the Argos platform, which started

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 1.8 million barrels from the week ending November 28 to the week ending December 5, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report. That report was published on December 10 and included data for the week ending December 5. The report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 425.7 million barrels on December 5, 427.5 million barrels on November 28, and 422.0 million barrels on December 6, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 411.9 million barrels on December 5, 411.7 million barrels on November 28, and 392.5 million barrels on December 6, 2024, the report revealed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.684 billion barrels on December 5, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were down 2.9 million barrels week on week and up 55.8 million barrels year on year, the report pointed out. “At 425.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about four percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA said in its latest weekly petroleum status report. “Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 6.4 million barrels from last week and are about one percent below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories increased last week,” it added. “Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels last week and are about seven percent below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased 1.8 million barrels from last week and are about 15 percent above the five year average for this

Brazilian oil output is rebounding from outages that removed more than 300,000 barrels a day last month, highlighting how Latin America’s largest crude producer can confound OPEC efforts to micromanage the market.    Brazil’s daily oil production slid roughly 8 percent to an average of 3.696 million barrels in November, according to Bloomberg calculations based on preliminary figures from oil regulator ANP. The drop from an all-time high the previous month stemmed from platform outages at offshore fields such as the mammoth Buzios. The volatility in output from a key non-OPEC oil producer highlights the challenges involved in assessing global crude-supply trends. The Saudi-led group of heavyweight oil nations is preparing to boost volumes early next year, and on Thursday predicted a balanced global crude market in 2026. OPEC’s outlook differs markedly from the likes of the International Energy Agency and influential traders such as Trafigura Group that are warning of an imminent supply glut.  In Brazil, the data indicate that at least some of the affected platforms came back online in recent weeks. About one-fifth of last month’s lost production had been restored by late last week, according to the most recent ANP figures. The agency’s data is subject to subsequent adjustments. The November drop highlights how Brazil’s shift to “super platforms” that can pump more than 200,000 barrels a day each leaves the nation’s output vulnerable to sharp fluctuations, said Marcelo De Assis, a Rio de Janeiro-based independent oil consultant.  The temporary blip, however, won’t derail the longer-term upward trend for Brazil and regional giants Guyana and Argentina, he said. Although the IEA trimmed estimates for a global oil surplus on Thursday, the agency is still expecting world supplies to exceed demand by 3.815 million barrels a day in 2026. What do you think? We’d love to hear from you,

TechnipFMC PLC said Thursday it had won a “significant” contract from Chevron Corp for a recently approved project to expand the Gorgon domestic and liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Western Australia. The integrated energy tech company will deliver its Subsea 2.0 configure-to-order suite of products for the Gorgon Stage 3 project. “This contract marks the introduction of the first seven-inch series of Subsea 2.0® horizontal subsea trees”, TechnipFMC said in a press release. “In addition, TechnipFMC will deliver flexible jumpers designed to increase production rates and provide flow assurance for gas applications”. TechnipFMC values a “significant contract” at $75-250 million. “We are proud to continue our 20-year partnership with Chevron on the Gorgon development through this latest opportunity”, said TechnipFMC president for subsea Jonathan Landes. Last week Chevron announced a AUD 3 billion ($2 billion) final investment decision to proceed with Gorgon Stage 3. The first in a planned series of tiebacks, Gorgon Stage 3 will develop the Geryon and Eurytion fields in the Greater Gorgon Area by connecting them to existing subsea gas gathering infrastructure and processing facilities on Barrow Island, according to an online statement by the Australian unit of Gorgon operator Chevron. Six wells are to be drilled in the two fields, located about 100 kilometers (62.14 miles) northwest of the island in waters around 1,300 meters (4,265.09 feet) deep. “The development involves the installation of three manifolds and a 35-kilometer production flowline among other associated infrastructure”, Chevron Australia said in the statement December 5. Chevron Australia president Balaji Krishnamurthy said, “Gorgon Stage 3 is a cost-competitive development which will optimize existing infrastructure and complement the well-progressed Jansz-Io Compression Project and previously completed Gorgon Stage 2 infill development”. Gorgon currently has a declared domestic production capacity of 300 terajoules per day, catered to the Western Australian market,