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I Tried Making my Own (Bad) LLM Benchmark to Cheat in Escape Rooms

Recently, DeepSeek announced their latest model, R1, and article after article came out praising its performance relative to cost, and how the release of such open-source models could genuinely change the course of LLMs forever. That is really exciting! And also, too big of a scope to write about… but when a model like DeepSeek […]

Recently, DeepSeek announced their latest model, R1, and article after article came out praising its performance relative to cost, and how the release of such open-source models could genuinely change the course of LLMs forever. That is really exciting! And also, too big of a scope to write about… but when a model like DeepSeek comes out of nowhere with a steel chair, boasting similar performance levels to other models, what does performance really mean in this context?

If you follow AI releases, you’ve seen this dance before. Every new model drops with its graphs showing how it’s somehow simultaneously better than GPT-4 on math problems while being smaller and more efficient. But what exactly are these benchmarks measuring? How are they created? And more importantly, how can we cut through the hype to create our own benchmarks for specific use cases?

I wanted to learn more about LLM Benchmarking.

Part 1: What is a Benchmark? (in 3 seconds)

TL:DR — The SATs (multiple, actually) for LLMs.

Part 1.1: What is a Benchmark? (in more than 3 seconds)

Before we dive into the nitty-gritty of specific benchmarks, let’s take a moment to unpack what we even mean by “LLM Benchmark.” Because calling them the “SATs for AI” feels both right and also slightly oversimplified.

LLM benchmarks are, at their core, structured tests used to measure how well large language models perform on certain tasks. These tasks can be anything from identifying if a statement is true or false, to summarizing a legal document, to generating valid Python functions. Think of them as curated obstacle courses specially designed by AI researchers to test every relevant muscle these models might have. These frameworks typically provide a dataset of inputs with known correct outputs, allowing for consistent comparison between models.

Modern benchmarks employ various evaluation methodologies. Classification metrics like accuracy work for tasks with discrete correct answers, while overlap-based metrics (BLEU, ROUGE) evaluate free-form text generation. Some benchmarks use functional testing for code generation, or employ other LLMs as judges to evaluate response quality.

A typical benchmark usually comes packaged as:

  • A standardized dataset of questions, prompts, or tasks (with correct or reference answers).
  • An evaluation protocol specifying how to measure success, like accuracy, F1 score, BLEU/ROUGE for text generation, or pass/fail rates for coding tasks.
  • A leaderboard or some form of comparative scoreboard, often with big flashy graphs.

Some really famous benchmarks include MMLU for testing multitask language understanding, TruthfulQA for assessing factual accuracy, and HumanEval for measuring coding capabilities. Results are pretty often published on public leaderboards, which let’s people perform some transparent comparison between different models.

From the DeepSeek paper: DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning

What Makes a Good Benchmark?

  1. A Clear Task Definition: We want tasks that are unambiguous. The more straightforward and well-specified the challenge, the easier it is to trust the results.
  2. Data Integrity: The test set shouldn’t be floating around in the training data. Because if the model’s seen the exact same question 50 times before, the evaluation is about as useful as giving a math quiz to someone who already has the answer key.
  3. Quantifiable Metrics: You need a standard for scoring performance — like how many times the model’s code passes test cases or how close the generated summary is to a “ground-truth” summary.
  4. Task Diversity & Difficulty: If a benchmark is too easy, everyone just ACES it on day one, and we learn… well, nothing. If it’s too niche (like “We test only the model’s ability to count the digits of Pi for 20 minutes”), that’s also not so helpful.

Life Ain’t All about The Grades

Benchmarks capture only a slice of what LLMs can do. In the real world, your chatbot might need to juggle domain knowledge, keep track of conversation context, abide by your company’s policies, and produce fluent, non-offensive replies. No single standardized test out there fully covers that. As we’ll see in the upcoming case studies, the design and execution of a benchmark can heavily shape the picture you get of your model’s performance… and sometimes lead you astray if you’re not careful with how you measure success.

Now that we have a sense of what Llm Benchmarks are designed to accomplish (and where they might fall short), let’s explore a couple of examples to see how people actually build and use them in practice — with mixed results!

Case Study #1: Leetcode as an LLM Benchmark

As a student in the tech space, the word “Leetcode” popping up during my search for cool benchmarks raised by blood pressure by a statistically significant amount. Unlike Leetcode, which sucks, the paper “Performance Study of LLM-Generated Code on Leetcode” was very interesting — it asks a deceptively simple question: can we use Leetcode to benchmark LLM code generation? Their findings reveal both the promise and pitfalls of this approach.

The Benchmark Design

The researchers built a three-stage validation system. Local tests catch basic errors, Leetcode’s judge verifies correctness, and a custom benchmarking setup measures performance. This setup revealed something critical: benchmarking code performance is harder than it looks.

When they compared local measurements to Leetcode’s metrics, they found only a 0.28 correlation. Leetcode’s measurements showed much higher variation (0.089 vs 0.035 locally). Even worse, Leetcode’s rankings proved unstable — identical solutions could drop from the 77th to 54th percentile just based on submission timing.

A Performance Study of LLM-Generated Code on Leetcode,” In 28th International Conference on Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering (EASE 2024), Salerno, Italy (2024)

The Real Problems

Three major issues emerged that challenge Leetcode’s viability as a benchmark:

Data Contamination: Using public problems risks LLMs having seen the solutions during training. The researchers had to use only problems from 2023 to mitigate this.

Platform Instability: Leetcode’s metrics drift over time — memory measurements showed a -0.24 correlation with test date. This makes reproducible benchmarking nearly impossible.

Measurement Reliability: The weak correlation between local and platform measurements raises questions about what we’re actually testing.

What It Means for LLM Benchmarking

This study doesn’t just critique Leetcode — it highlights what we need in a code generation benchmark: reproducible measurements, reliable performance metrics, and guaranteed training-test separation. Until we have platforms built specifically for this purpose, we need to be extremely cautious about using competition platforms as benchmarks.

So! We know that not all benchmarks are viable benchmarks — what about a more mainstream one?

Case Study #2: SuperGLUE — Building a Better Language Understanding Benchmark

The SuperGLUE paper tackles a fascinating problem in AI benchmarking: what do you do when models get too good at your tests? When GLUE became insufficient (with models surpassing human performance), the researchers had to rethink how we measure language understanding.

The Benchmark Design

SuperGLUE’s core innovation is its task selection methodology. The researchers collected task proposals from the NLP community and filtered them through a rigorous process: each task needed clear evaluation metrics, public training data, and — most importantly — significant headroom between machine and human performance.

This resulted in eight tasks (I’ve simplified the table from the document here, it’s a little less readable but you should get the sense of what the questions are asking):

SuperGLUE: A Stickier Benchmark for General-Purpose Language Understanding Systems, In 33rd Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2019), Vancouver, Canada (2019)

What makes these tasks special is their diversity in format. Unlike GLUE’s focus on sentence classification, SuperGLUE includes coreference resolution, reading comprehension, and more com plex reasoning tasks. Each task measures different aspects of language understanding while maintaining clear, quantifiable metrics.


Part 2: Let’s Build a Physical Reasoning Benchmark: To Cheat at Escape Rooms

After looking at some benchmarks like SuperGLUE and Leetcode, I had an idea: what if we tested LLMs on something completely different — physical reasoning… through escape room puzzles?

It’s a pretty valid idea — escape rooms poses possibilities and consequences for failure — screw up one too many puzzles, and your friends will think you’re pretty stupid, and relegate you to spectator duty. Luckily for us however, they (or the poor employees) don’t know that you can sneak a phone into an escape room — and you know just who to ask for the answers. Today, LLMs face off against the puzzles of a physical escape room.

Note: This is NOT a rigorous academic benchmark (please don’t cite this in papers, why would you even want to do that?), or even close to it, and it’s just supposed to be a fun way to test LLM benchmarking and evaluation. Please do not destroy my prompts, I am aware they are bad.

Why Physical Reasoning?

For real, though… most LLM benchmarks focus on linguistic tasks (like SuperGLUE) or code generation (like Leetcode). And for good reason — these are well-defined domains with clear evaluation metrics. But real-world problem solving often requires understanding physical principles and their interactions. The famous “Can GPT-4 do physics?” debates usually center around mathematical problem-solving, not practical physical reasoning.

Looking at existing benchmarks taught me a few key principles:

  1. Clear evaluation metrics are crucial (from SuperGLUE’s task-specific scores)
  2. Problems should have unambiguous solutions (from HumanEval’s test cases)
  3. The benchmark should test distinct capabilities (from MMLU’s subject categories)

Designing the Problems

I settled on escape room puzzles for two reasons. First, they naturally combine physical reasoning with clear goals. Second, they have unambiguous success conditions — either you solve it through the intended way, or you don’t. Third, and most importantly, they let me include “red herrings” — irrelevant items that test if the LLM can identify what matters physically. Fourth, I just really like doing escape rooms (did I mention that already?),

I am aware that this is more than two reasons, but if LLMs can’t count how many rs’ there are in strawberry, I’m allowed to mess up once in a while too.

Here’s how I structured the five core problems:

Fluid Dynamics (FLUID_001) (Ping pong ball stuck in a tube)

  • Tests understanding of buoyancy and fluid displacement
  • Inspired by classic physics problems but in practical context
  • Includes intentionally irrelevant items (like squishy food models)

Light Properties (UV_001) (UV light on a push numebr lock)

  • Tests understanding of UV fluorescence and material properties
  • Combines multiple physical principles (light, material science)
  • Requires understanding of environmental conditions

Mechanical Understanding (CIPHER_001) (A cipher ring)

  • Tests spatial reasoning and mechanical alignment
  • No red herrings — tests for correlating a dial to a cypher wheel
  • Requires understanding rotational symmetry

Force Application (VAC_001) (Can stuck in hole)

  • Tests understanding of vacuum forces and surface adhesion
  • Multiple possible solution approaches
  • Requires understanding force multiplication

Collaborative Physics (COLLAB_001) (Can two people shimmy a key?)

  • Tests understanding of physical constraints in multi-agent scenarios
  • Requires combining multiple physical principles
  • Tests understanding of tool creation and friction

Sounds really fancy… but it’s just some basic physical puzzles. You can access them on my GitHub.

The Technical Part

The benchmark implementation has three main components:

Problem Definition Layer

Problems are defined in a structured JSON format that enforces consistent evaluation:

{
    "problem_id": "FLUID_001",
    "setup": {
        "scenario": "A ping pong ball is at the bottom of a narrow tube...",
        "available_items": ["bottle of water", "squishy food models"...],
        "constraints": ["tube too narrow for manual retrieval"]
    },
    "physical_principles": ["buoyancy", "fluid displacement"],
    "red_herrings": ["squishy food models", "milk carton"],
    "solution": {
        "steps": ["pour water into tube", "allow ball to float"],
        "key_insights": ["water displaces air", "ping pong ball less dense"]
    }
}

This structure draws from SuperGLUE’s design — each component is clearly separated and machine-readable. The physical_principles field explicitly lists what’s being tested, while red_herrings helps in scoring the LLM’s ability to ignore irrelevant information.

2. Evaluation Framework

The evaluation system uses Python’s asyncio for concurrent testing, with retry logic for a little bit more API stability:

@retry(stop=stop_after_attempt(3), wait=wait_exponential(min=1, max=10))
async def evaluate_response(self, criteria: JudgingCriteria) -> Dict:
    """Evaluate a model's response using GPT-4 as judge."""
    async with aiohttp.ClientSession() as session:
        # ... evaluation logic

The scoring system looks at three components:

Physical Understanding Score (PUS) ∈ [0,2]

  • Measures understanding of relevant physical principles
  • Calculated as normalized sum of demonstrated principles

Solution Path Score (SPS) ∈ [0,2]

  • Evaluates completeness and correctness of solution steps
  • Considers practical feasibility of proposed solutions

Red Herring Handling (RHH) ∈ {0,1}

  • A Binary score for avoiding irrelevant items
  • Tests ability to focus on physically relevant factors

And yes, there are also so many other scoring methods, better and worse, that could be used! For example, RHH could be about how many irrelevant items are used in the solution, or it could be a measure of how viable the use is… the point is that picking these metrics are often times pretty arbitrary, but are very very important to making your benchmark is credible, which mine is very much not.

Additionally, I did not want to rewrite any code after. Sue me.

3. Model Interface Layer

The benchmark supports multiple LLM backends through a common interface:

class ModelInterface:
    """Interface for different LLM APIs."""
    async def generate_response(self, prompt: str) -> str:
        raise NotImplementedError
class GPT4Interface(ModelInterface):
    async def generate_response(self, prompt: str) -> str:
        # GPT-4 specific implementation
class ClaudeInterface(ModelInterface):
    async def generate_response(self, prompt: str) -> str:
        # Claude specific implementation

Two models… I can’t really afford any more, please understand.

Let’s Test It!

So after some refilling of API balances, I was ready to go. I ran the benchmark, and after totally not wasting credits on like, 5 different errors, the results were in. And they were… interesting! I used GPT4 and Claude 3.5 Haiku (I am aware these are not similarly spec-ed models) as our victims.

The Challenge: A can is stuck in a hole that almost exactly matches its volume. A combination is written on the bottom of the can that needs to be retrieved.

The inspiration
"VAC_001": {
        "problem_id": "VAC_001",
        "setup": {
            "available_items": [
                "ruler",
                "notebook",
                "suction cup",
                "UV light"
            ],
            "constraints": [
                "can fits too tightly for finger grip",
                "hole is same diameter as can",
                "can is clean and dry"
            ]
        },
        "physical_principles": [
            "vacuum suction",
            "surface adhesion",
            "force multiplication"
        ],
        "red_herrings": [
            "ruler",
            "notebook",
            "UV light"
        ],
        "solution": {
            "steps": [
                "inspect suction cup and can surface",
                "ensure can surface is clean",
                "firmly press suction cup onto can top",
                "create vacuum seal",
                "pull can out using suction cup"
            ],
            "key_insights": [
                "suction cup creates vacuum seal",
                "vacuum force allows extraction",
                "other items don't provide necessary force"
            ]
        }

GPT-4’s Solution

Physical Principles: The main physical principle involved in this solution is the concept of air pressure differential, which is the same principle that allows a suction cup to stick to a surface. Air pressure is higher on one side of the suction cup (outside) compared to the other (inside), and this difference in pressure causes the cup to stick to the surface.

Solution Steps:

  1. Attach the suction cup to the top of the can. The flat surface of the can should provide a good contact for the suction cup to adhere to.
  2. Once the suction cup is firmly attached, gently pull upwards. The air pressure differential should cause the suction cup (and thus the can) to be lifted out of the hole.
  3. Once the can is out of the hole, remove the suction cup from the top of the can.
  4. Use the UV light to illuminate the combination written on the bottom of the can. Some inks only become visible under UV light, which is why this step is necessary.
  5. Write down the combination on the notebook to ensure it’s not forgotten.

Required Items:

  • Suction cup: This is required to adhere to the can and pull it out of the hole, as the can fits too tightly for finger grip.
  • UV light: This is required to reveal the combination written on the bottom of the can, as it may be written in ink that only becomes visible under UV light.
  • Notebook: This is required to record the combination once it’s visible, ensuring it’s not forgotten.”

Not bad at all! GPT-4 manages to figure out the physical principle behind the solution (even if it is very wordy), and manages to step-by-step describe how to solve the problem. It does end up using the UV light and notebook, but that’s more of a problem on my end, not punishing the use of unnecessary items in the prompt enough. Also, the uses for these items seem decently reasonable… so why not!

Haiku-3.5’s Solution

Physical Principles: The key physical principles involved in this scenario are the concept of volume and the use of suction to extract the can from the hole. Since the can fits almost exactly into the hole, it is likely that the can is stuck due to the tight fit and the lack of any air gaps or space between the can and the hole. This tight fit creates a vacuum-like effect, making it difficult to grip and pull the can out.

Solution Steps:

  1. Measure the diameter of the can using the ruler. This will help determine the size of the hole and confirm that the can fits tightly within it.
  2. Inspect the bottom of the can to locate the combination written on it. Use the UV light to illuminate the bottom of the can and make the combination visible, if it is not already clearly visible.
  3. Attach the suction cup to the top of the can. The suction cup will create a temporary seal on the can’s surface, allowing you to grip and pull it out of the hole.
  4. Gently pull the can upwards using the suction cup. The suction force should be strong enough to overcome the vacuum-like effect and extract the can from the hole.
  5. Once the can is out, record the combination written on the bottom of the can in the notebook.

Required Items:

  • Ruler: To measure the diameter of the can and confirm the tight fit in the hole.
  • UV light: To illuminate the bottom of the can and make the combination visible, if it is not already clearly visible.
  • Suction cup: To create a temporary seal on the can’s surface and provide the necessary grip to pull the can out of the hole.
  • Notebook: To record the combination written on the bottom of the can.

On the other hand, Haiku’s solution was.. certainly a solution of all time.

First, it wants to measure the diameter of the can using the ruler??? To determine the size of the hole and confirm that the can fits tightly within it? Why would we need to do this? And do we need a ruler for that?

Second, it tells us to inspect the bottom of the can to locate the combination, when the entire problem is about not being able to pull the can out of the hole conventionally. This might just be an issue of order, but now I truly understand my friends’ feelings whenever I would tell them “just fix it man” to their numerous problems.

But it eventually does get the solution. So… not the worst.

Here’s a fancy radar graph of the results!

We see that both models are pretty similar in their capabilities, with GPT-4 being slightly better in physical understanding and solution path, and Haiku being slightly better in red herring handling. Overall though, both models kind of suck. Dang.

There are also only… 5 questions.

If you’d like to see the full breadth of questions, they’re on my GitHub.

LLM-as-a-Judge

By the way, the method I used to generate the evaluations, LLM-as-a-judge, has gained significant traction in the AI community, particularly after the work of Zheng et al. in their 2023 paper “Judging LLM-as-a-Judge.” The technique has proven remarkably effective, achieving over 80% agreement with human evaluators in tasks ranging from code assessment to dialogue quality evaluation!

Here’s where my experiment gets kind of cool (arguably, maybe, subjectively) — I used this methodology and had GPT-4 judge other LLMs’ physical reasoning abilities. Yes, I’m using an AI to judge other AIs.

Why does this work? Well, judging a response is actually a simpler task than generating one. When GPT-4 generates a solution to a physical puzzle, it needs to:

  • Understand the physical principles involved
  • Plan a sequence of steps
  • Consider all constraints
  • Generate a coherent explanation

But when judging, it only needs to check if specific criteria are met in an existing solution. The evaluation prompt is very focused:

def _create_evaluation_prompt(self, criteria: JudgingCriteria) -> str:
    return f"""You are an expert judge evaluating an LLM's understanding of physical reasoning puzzles.
Evaluate based on three criteria:
2. Physical Understanding Score (0-2): Does the solution correctly apply relevant physical principles?
3. Solution Path Score (0-2): Are the steps complete and feasible?
4. Red Herring Handling (0-1): Does it avoid using irrelevant items?
Scenario: {criteria.scenario}
Physical Principles Required: {criteria.correct_principles}
Solution Given: {criteria.model_response}
"""

To validate this approach, I followed the validation framework suggested by Zheng et al., performing spot-checks of GPT-4’s evaluations against my own judgments. Surprisingly (or perhaps unsurprisingly, given the broader research on LLM evaluation), it was remarkably consistent in identifying both correct physical understanding and flawed reasoning.

Is this perfect? Absolutely not. There’s something philosophically weird about using one LLM to evaluate another. But in practice, it can work surprisingly well — just like how I moan and groan about the visual presentation of a dish on Masterchef, while setting my kitchen aflame trying to microwave a hot dog.

What I Learned

Building this benchmark taught me several things about benchmark design:

Clear Metrics Matter: Even for complex tasks like physical reasoning, you need unambiguous scoring criteria.

Red Herrings Are Powerful: Including irrelevant items reveals a lot about an LLM’s reasoning process.

Context Control is Hard: Ensuring LLMs don’t “hallucinate” additional physical context is challenging.

Is this a perfect benchmark? Not even close. Please don’t rub it in. Is it scientifically rigorous? Definitely not. But it’s been a fascinating exploration into an aspect of LLM capabilities, and sometimes the best we can learn can come from just trying things out and seeing what happens.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I will be sneaking in a phone with an internet connection into my next escape room, for reasons that I am legally unmotivated to disclose.

[1] L. Zheng, W.-L. Chiang, Y. Sheng, S. Zhuang, Z. Wu, Y. Zhuang, Z. Lin, Z. Li, D. Li, E. P. Xing, H. Zhang, J. E. Gonzalez, I. Stoica, “Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena,” Proceedings of the 37th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2023), Datasets and Benchmarks Track (2023)

[2] T. Coignion, C. Quinton, R. Rouvoy, “A Performance Study of LLM-Generated Code on Leetcode,” In 28th International Conference on Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering (EASE 2024), Salerno, Italy (2024)

[3] A. Wang, Y. Pruksachatkun, N. Nangia, A. Singh, J. Michael, F. Hill, O. Levy, S. R. Bowman, “SuperGLUE: A Stickier Benchmark for General-Purpose Language Understanding Systems,” In 33rd Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2019), Vancouver, Canada (2019)

[5] DeepSeek-AI, D. Guo, D. Yang, H. Zhang, J. Song, R. Zhang, R. Xu, Q. Zhu, S. Ma, P. Wang, X. Bi, X. Zhang, X. Yu, Y. Wu, Z.F. Wu, Z. Gou, Z. Shao, Z. Li, Z. Gao et al., “DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2501.12948 (2025)

[6] Unless otherwise stated, all images are created by the author.

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Oxy cutting oil-and-gas capex by $300 million, eyes 1% production growth

@import url(‘https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:[email protected]&display=swap’); a { color: var(–color-primary-main); } .ebm-page__main h1, .ebm-page__main h2, .ebm-page__main h3, .ebm-page__main h4, .ebm-page__main h5, .ebm-page__main h6 { font-family: Inter; } body { line-height: 150%; letter-spacing: 0.025em; font-family: Inter; } button, .ebm-button-wrapper { font-family: Inter; } .label-style { text-transform: uppercase; color: var(–color-grey); font-weight: 600; font-size: 0.75rem; } .caption-style { font-size: 0.75rem; opacity: .6; } #onetrust-pc-sdk [id*=btn-handler], #onetrust-pc-sdk [class*=btn-handler] { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-policy a, #onetrust-pc-sdk a, #ot-pc-content a { color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-sdk .ot-active-menu { border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-accept-btn-handler, #onetrust-banner-sdk #onetrust-reject-all-handler, #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-btn-handler.cookie-setting-link { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk .onetrust-pc-btn-handler { color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } Occidental Petroleum Corp., Houston, will spend $5.5-5.9 billion on capital projects this year, an 8% drop from 2025 and $800 million less than executives’ early forecast late last year, as the company continues to emphasize efficiency gains. Spending on oil-and-gas operations will be $300 million less than last year. Sunil Mathew, chief financial officer, late last week told investors and analysts that Occidental’s capital spending budget for 2026 (adjusted for the recently completed divestiture of OxyChem) will focus on short-cycle projects and be roughly 70% devoted to US onshore assets. Still, onshore capex will drop by $400 million from last year in part because of a drop in Permian basin activities and efficiency improvements. Other elements of Occidental’s spending plan include: A reduction of about $100 million compared to last year for exploration work A $250 million drop in spending at the company’s Low Carbon Ventures group housing Stratos Mathew said capex, which will be weighted a little to the first half, sets up Occidental’s production to average 1.45 MMboe/d for the full year, a tick up from 2025’s average of 1.434 MMboe/d but down from the roughly 1.48

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Diamondback’s Van’t Hof growing ‘more confident about the macro’

The early Barnett production will help Diamondback slightly increase its oil production this year from 2025’s average of 497,200 b/d. Van’t Hof and his team are eyeing 505,000 b/d this year with total expected production of 926,000-962,000 boe/d versus last year’s 921,000 boe/d. On a Feb. 24 conference call with analysts and investors, Van’t Hof said he’s feeling better than in recent quarters about that production number possibly moving up. The bigger picture for the oil-and-gas sector, he said, has grown a bit brighter. “Some people have been talking about [oversupplying the market] for 2 years. It just hasn’t seemed to happen as aggressively as some expected,” Van’t Hof said. “As we turn to higher demand in the summer and driving season […] people will start to find reasons to be less bearish […] In general, we just feel more confident about the macro after a couple of big shocks last year on the supply side and the demand side.” In the last 3 months of 2025, Diamondback posted a net loss of more than $1.4 billion due to a $3.6 billion impairment charge because of lower commodity prices’ effect on the company’s reserves. Adjusted EBITA fell to $2.0 billion from $2.5 billion in late 2024 and revenues during the quarter slipped to nearly $3.4 billion from $3.7 billion. Shares of Diamondback (Ticker: FANG) were essentially flat at $173.68 in early-afternoon trading on Feb. 24. Over the past 6 months, they are still up more than 20% and the company’s market value is now $50 billion.

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Vaalco Energy advances offshore drilling, development in Gabon and Ivory Coast

Vaalco Energy Inc. is drilling Etame field offshore Gabon and a preparing a field development plan (FDP) off Ivory Coast.  In Gabon, Vaalco drilled, completed, and placed Etame 15H-ST development well on production in Etame oil field in 1V block. The well has a 250 m lateral interval of net pay in high-quality Gamba sands near the top of the reservoir. The well had a stabilized flow rate of about 2,000 gross b/d of oil with a 38% water cut through a 42/64-in. choke and ESP at 54 Hz, confirming expectations from the ET-15P pilot well results. The company is working to stabilize pressure and manage the reservoir. West Etame step out exploration well spudded in mid-February. Drilling the well from the S1 slot on the Etame platform Etame West (ET-14P) exploration prospect has a 57% chance of geologic success and is expected to reach the target zone by mid-March. Etame Marin block lies in Congo basin about 32 km off the coast of Gabon. The license area is spread over five fields covering about 187 sq km. Vaalco is operator at the block with 58.8% interest. In Ivory Coast, Vaalco has been confirmed as operator (60%) of Kossipo field on the CI-40 Block southwest of Baobab field with partner PetroCI holding the remaining 40%. An FDP is expected to be completed in second-half 2026. New ocean bottom node (OBN) seismic data is expected to drive and derisk Vaalco’s updated evaluation and development plan. Estimated Gross 2C resources are 102-293 MMboe in place. The Baobab Ivorien (formerly MV10) floating production storage and offloading vessel (FPSO) is currently off the East coast of Africa and is expected to return to Ivory Coast by late March.  

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Ovintiv sets 2026 plan around Permian, Montney after declaring portfolio shift ‘complete’

2026 guidance For 2026, Ovintiv plans to invest $2.25–2.35 billion, up slightly from the $2.147 billion spent in 2025. McCracken said capital spend will be highest in first-quarter 2026 at about $625 million, “largely due to $50 million of capital allocated to the Anadarko and some drilling activity in the Montney that we inherited from NuVista.” The program is designed to deliver 205,000–212,000 b/d of oil and condensate, some 2 bcfd of natural gas, and 620,000–645,000 boe/d total company production. For full-year 2025, the company produced 614,500 boe/d.  The company is pursuing a “stay‑flat” oil strategy, maintaining liquids output through steady activity rather than aggressive volume growth.  Permian Ovintiv plans to run 5 rigs and 1-2 frac crews in the Permian basin this year, bringing 125–135 net wells online. Oil and condensate volumes are expected to average 117,000–123,000 b/d, with natural gas production of 270–295 MMcfd. The company projects 2026 drilling and completion costs below $600/ft, about $25/ft lower than 2025. Chief operating officer Gregory Givens credited faster cycle times and ongoing application of surfactant technology. Ovintiv has now deployed surfactants in about 300 Permian wells, generating a 9% uplift in oil productivity versus comparable control wells. Givens also reiterated that Ovintiv remains committed to its established cube‑development model. Responding to an analyst question, he said the company continues completing entire cubes at once, then returning “18 months later” to develop adjacent cubes—an approach that stabilizes well performance and reduces parent‑child degradation, he said. “We are getting the whole cube at the same time, and that is working quite well for us,” he said. The company plans to drill its first Barnett Woodford test well across Midland basin acreage in 2026. Ovintiv holds Barnett rights across roughly 100,000 acres and intends to move cautiously given the zone’s depth, higher pressure,

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Data center new builds diminish even as demand rises

However, the report said, development in more remote regions “will remain challenging” due to a shortage of skilled labor such as mechanics, electricians, plumbers, laborers and construction workers. Market shift from abundance to constrained Sanchit Vir Gogia, chief analyst at Greyhound Research, said Wednesday that enterprises must assume, as the report suggests, that there will be elevated pricing for North American data center capacity through at least 2029, and possibly longer. “Vacancy at or near 1%- 2% is not a temporary imbalance,” he said. It is a “signal that supply elasticity has broken. When over 90% of capacity under construction is already pre-committed, new entrants are negotiating from a position of structural scarcity, not market equilibrium.” “Energy intensity is rising because AI workloads are more power dense,” he pointed out. “So even if an enterprise does not expand its footprint, the cost per deployed workload can still increase because the electrical envelope changes.” His advice to enterprises: expansion is viable, but only if they diversify beyond legacy Tier 1 hubs, secure long term expansion rights early, negotiate structured pricing protection, and “optimize workload placement with ruthless clarity.” But, he added, “it is not viable if enterprises assume that incremental megawatts will remain readily available in the same region at roughly similar economics.” John Annand, practice lead at Info-Tech Research, said that, to compensate, his firm’s client base is increasingly open to moving the right workloads to private clouds or on-premises. “The shift is nuanced, not ideological,” he said, and is usually financially motivated and “framed as hybrid optimization, not public cloud reversal.”  

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Why network bandwidth matters a lot

One interesting point about VPNs is raised by fully a third of capacity-hungry enterprises: SD-WAN is the cheapest and easiest way to increase capacity to remote sites. Yes, service reliability of broadband Internet access for these sites is highly variable, so enterprises say they need to pilot test in a target area to determine whether even business-broadband Internet is reliable enough, but if it is, high capacity is both available and cheap. Clearly data center networking is taking the prime position in enterprise network planning, even without any contribution from AI. Will AI contribute? Enterprises generally believe that self-hosted AI will indeed require more network bandwidth, but again think this will be largely confined to the data center. AI, they say, has a broader and less predictable appetite for data, and business applications involving the data that’s subject to governance, or that’s already data-center hosted, are likely to be hosted proximate to the data. That was true for traditional software, and it’s likely just as true for AI. Yes, but…today, three times as many enterprises say that they’d use AI needs simply to boost justification for capacity expansion as think they currently need it. AI hype has entered, and perhaps even dominates, capital network project justifications. These capacity trends don’t impact enterprises alone, they also reshape the equipment space. Only 9% of enterprises say they have invested in white-box devices to build capacity and data center configuration flexibility, but the number that say they would evaluate them in 2026 is double that. This may be what’s behind Cisco’s decision to push its new G300 chip. AI’s role in capital project justifications may also be why Cisco positions the G300 so aggressively as an AI facilitator. Make no mistake, though; this is really all about capacity and QoE, even for AI.

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JLL: Hyperscale and AI Demand Push North American Data Centers Toward Industrial Scale

JLL’s North America Data Center Report Year-End 2025 makes a clear argument that the sector is no longer merely expanding but has shifted into a phase of industrial-scale acceleration driven by hyperscalers, AI platforms, and capital markets that increasingly treat digital infrastructure as core, bond-like collateral. The report’s central thesis is straightforward. Structural demand has overwhelmed traditional real estate cycles. JLL supports that claim with a set of reinforcing signals: Vacancy remains pinned near zero. Most new supply is pre-leased years ahead. Rents continue to climb. Debt markets remain highly liquid. Investors are engineering new financial structures to sustain growth. Author Andrew Batson notes that JLL’s Data Center Solutions team significantly expanded its methodology for this edition, incorporating substantially more hyperscale and owner-occupied capacity along with more than 40 additional markets. The subtitle — “The data center sector shifts into hyperdrive” — serves as an apt one-line summary of the report’s posture. The methodological change is not cosmetic. By incorporating hyper-owned infrastructure, total market size increases, vacancy compresses, and historical time series shift accordingly. JLL is explicit that these revisions reflect improved visibility into the market rather than a change in underlying fundamentals; and, if anything, suggest prior reports understated the sector’s true scale. The Market in Three Words: Tight, Pre-Leased, Relentless The report’s key highlights page serves as an executive brief for investors, offering a concise snapshot of market conditions that remain historically constrained. Vacancy stands at just 1%, unchanged year over year, while 92% of capacity currently under construction is already pre-leased. At the same time, geographic diversification continues to accelerate, with 64% of new builds now occurring in so-called frontier markets. JLL also notes that Texas, when viewed as a unified market, could surpass Northern Virginia as the top data center market by 2030, even as capital

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7×24 Exchange’s Dennis Cronin on the Data Center Workforce Crisis: The Talent Cliff Is Already Here

The data center industry has spent the past two years obsessing over power constraints, AI density, and supply chain pressure. But according to longtime mission critical leader Dennis Cronin, the sector’s most consequential bottleneck may be far more human. In a recent episode of the Data Center Frontier Show Podcast, Cronin — a founding member of 7×24 Exchange International and board member of the Mission Critical Global Alliance (MCGA) — delivered a stark message: the workforce “talent cliff” the industry keeps discussing as a future risk is already impacting operations today. A Million-Job Gap Emerging Cronin’s assessment reframes the workforce conversation from a routine labor shortage to what he describes as a structural and demographic challenge. Based on recent analysis of open roles, he estimates the industry is currently short between 467,000 and 498,000 workers across core operational positions including facilities managers, operations engineers, electricians, generator technicians, and HVAC specialists. Layer in emerging roles tied to AI infrastructure, sustainability, and cyber-physical security, and the potential demand rises to roughly one million jobs. “The coming talent cliff is not coming,” Cronin said. “It’s here, here and now.” With data center capacity expanding at roughly 30% annually, the workforce pipeline is not keeping pace with physical buildout. The Five-Year Experience Trap One of the industry’s most persistent self-inflicted wounds, Cronin argues, is the widespread requirement for five years of experience in roles that are effectively entry level. The result is a closed-loop hiring dynamic: New workers can’t get hired without experience They can’t gain experience without being hired Operators end up poaching from each other Workers may benefit from the resulting 10–20% salary jumps, but the overall talent pool remains stagnant. “It’s not helping us grow the industry,” Cronin said. In a market defined by rapid expansion and increasing system complexity, that

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Aeroderivative Turbines Move to the Center of AI Data Center Power Strategy

From “Backup” to “Bridging” to Behind-the-Meter Power Plants The most important shift is conceptual: these systems are increasingly blurring the boundary between emergency backup and primary power supply. Traditionally, data center electrical architecture has been clearly tiered: UPS (seconds to minutes) to ride through utility disturbances and generator start. Diesel gensets (minutes to hours or days) for extended outages. Utility grid as the primary power source. What’s changing is the rise of bridging power:  generation deployed to energize a site before the permanent grid connection is ready, or before sufficient utility capacity becomes available. Providers such as APR Energy now explicitly market turbine-based solutions to data centers seeking behind-the-meter capacity while awaiting utility build-out. That framing matters because it fundamentally changes expected runtime. A generator that operates for a few hours per year is one regulatory category. A turbine that runs continuously for weeks or months while a campus ramps is something very different; and it is drawing increased scrutiny from regulators who are beginning to treat these installations as material generation assets rather than temporary backup systems. The near-term driver is straightforward. AI workloads are arriving faster than grid infrastructure can keep pace. Data Center Frontier and other industry observers have documented the growing scramble for onsite generation as interconnection queues lengthen and critical equipment lead times expand. Mainstream financial and business media have taken notice. The Financial Times has reported on data centers turning to aeroderivative turbines and diesel fleets to bypass multi-year power delays. Reuters has likewise covered large gas-turbine-centric strategies tied to hyperscale campuses, underscoring how quickly the co-located generation model is moving into the mainstream. At the same time, demand pressure is tightening turbine supply chains. Industry reporting points to extended waits for new units, one reason repurposed engine cores and mobile aeroderivative packages are gaining

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Cooling’s New Reality: It’s Not Air vs. Liquid Anymore. It’s Architecture.

By early 2026, the data center cooling conversation has started to sound less like a product catalog and more like a systems engineering summit. The old framing – air cooling versus liquid cooling – still matters, but it increasingly misses the point. AI-era facilities are being defined by thermal constraints that run from chip-level cold plates to facility heat rejection, with critical decisions now shaped by pumping power, fluid selection, reliability under ambient extremes, water availability, and manufacturing throughput. That full-stack shift is written all over a grab bag of recent cooling announcements. On one end of the spectrum we see a Department of Energy-funded breakthrough aimed directly at next-generation GPU heat flux. On the other, it’s OEM product launches built to withstand –20°F to 140°F operating conditions and recover full cooling capacity within minutes of a power interruption. In between we find a major acquisition move for advanced liquid cooling IP, a manufacturing expansion that more than doubles footprint, and the quiet rise of refrigerants and heat-transfer fluids as design-level considerations. What’s emerging is a new reality. Cooling is becoming one of the primary constraints on AI deployment technically, economically, and geographically. The winners will be the players that can integrate the whole stack and scale it. 1) The Chip-level Arms Race: Single-phase Fights for More Runway The most “pure engineering” signal in this news batch comes from HRL Laboratories, which on Feb. 24, 2026 unveiled details of a single-phase direct liquid cooling approach called Low-Chill™. HRL’s framing is pointed: the industry wants higher GPU and rack power densities, but many operators are wary of the cost and operational complexity of two-phase cooling. HRL says Low-Chill was developed under the U.S. Department of Energy’s ARPA-E COOLERCHIPS program, and claims a leap that goes straight at the bottleneck. It can increase

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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