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I Tried Making my Own (Bad) LLM Benchmark to Cheat in Escape Rooms

Recently, DeepSeek announced their latest model, R1, and article after article came out praising its performance relative to cost, and how the release of such open-source models could genuinely change the course of LLMs forever. That is really exciting! And also, too big of a scope to write about… but when a model like DeepSeek […]

Recently, DeepSeek announced their latest model, R1, and article after article came out praising its performance relative to cost, and how the release of such open-source models could genuinely change the course of LLMs forever. That is really exciting! And also, too big of a scope to write about… but when a model like DeepSeek comes out of nowhere with a steel chair, boasting similar performance levels to other models, what does performance really mean in this context?

If you follow AI releases, you’ve seen this dance before. Every new model drops with its graphs showing how it’s somehow simultaneously better than GPT-4 on math problems while being smaller and more efficient. But what exactly are these benchmarks measuring? How are they created? And more importantly, how can we cut through the hype to create our own benchmarks for specific use cases?

I wanted to learn more about LLM Benchmarking.

Part 1: What is a Benchmark? (in 3 seconds)

TL:DR — The SATs (multiple, actually) for LLMs.

Part 1.1: What is a Benchmark? (in more than 3 seconds)

Before we dive into the nitty-gritty of specific benchmarks, let’s take a moment to unpack what we even mean by “LLM Benchmark.” Because calling them the “SATs for AI” feels both right and also slightly oversimplified.

LLM benchmarks are, at their core, structured tests used to measure how well large language models perform on certain tasks. These tasks can be anything from identifying if a statement is true or false, to summarizing a legal document, to generating valid Python functions. Think of them as curated obstacle courses specially designed by AI researchers to test every relevant muscle these models might have. These frameworks typically provide a dataset of inputs with known correct outputs, allowing for consistent comparison between models.

Modern benchmarks employ various evaluation methodologies. Classification metrics like accuracy work for tasks with discrete correct answers, while overlap-based metrics (BLEU, ROUGE) evaluate free-form text generation. Some benchmarks use functional testing for code generation, or employ other LLMs as judges to evaluate response quality.

A typical benchmark usually comes packaged as:

  • A standardized dataset of questions, prompts, or tasks (with correct or reference answers).
  • An evaluation protocol specifying how to measure success, like accuracy, F1 score, BLEU/ROUGE for text generation, or pass/fail rates for coding tasks.
  • A leaderboard or some form of comparative scoreboard, often with big flashy graphs.

Some really famous benchmarks include MMLU for testing multitask language understanding, TruthfulQA for assessing factual accuracy, and HumanEval for measuring coding capabilities. Results are pretty often published on public leaderboards, which let’s people perform some transparent comparison between different models.

From the DeepSeek paper: DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning

What Makes a Good Benchmark?

  1. A Clear Task Definition: We want tasks that are unambiguous. The more straightforward and well-specified the challenge, the easier it is to trust the results.
  2. Data Integrity: The test set shouldn’t be floating around in the training data. Because if the model’s seen the exact same question 50 times before, the evaluation is about as useful as giving a math quiz to someone who already has the answer key.
  3. Quantifiable Metrics: You need a standard for scoring performance — like how many times the model’s code passes test cases or how close the generated summary is to a “ground-truth” summary.
  4. Task Diversity & Difficulty: If a benchmark is too easy, everyone just ACES it on day one, and we learn… well, nothing. If it’s too niche (like “We test only the model’s ability to count the digits of Pi for 20 minutes”), that’s also not so helpful.

Life Ain’t All about The Grades

Benchmarks capture only a slice of what LLMs can do. In the real world, your chatbot might need to juggle domain knowledge, keep track of conversation context, abide by your company’s policies, and produce fluent, non-offensive replies. No single standardized test out there fully covers that. As we’ll see in the upcoming case studies, the design and execution of a benchmark can heavily shape the picture you get of your model’s performance… and sometimes lead you astray if you’re not careful with how you measure success.

Now that we have a sense of what Llm Benchmarks are designed to accomplish (and where they might fall short), let’s explore a couple of examples to see how people actually build and use them in practice — with mixed results!

Case Study #1: Leetcode as an LLM Benchmark

As a student in the tech space, the word “Leetcode” popping up during my search for cool benchmarks raised by blood pressure by a statistically significant amount. Unlike Leetcode, which sucks, the paper “Performance Study of LLM-Generated Code on Leetcode” was very interesting — it asks a deceptively simple question: can we use Leetcode to benchmark LLM code generation? Their findings reveal both the promise and pitfalls of this approach.

The Benchmark Design

The researchers built a three-stage validation system. Local tests catch basic errors, Leetcode’s judge verifies correctness, and a custom benchmarking setup measures performance. This setup revealed something critical: benchmarking code performance is harder than it looks.

When they compared local measurements to Leetcode’s metrics, they found only a 0.28 correlation. Leetcode’s measurements showed much higher variation (0.089 vs 0.035 locally). Even worse, Leetcode’s rankings proved unstable — identical solutions could drop from the 77th to 54th percentile just based on submission timing.

A Performance Study of LLM-Generated Code on Leetcode,” In 28th International Conference on Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering (EASE 2024), Salerno, Italy (2024)

The Real Problems

Three major issues emerged that challenge Leetcode’s viability as a benchmark:

Data Contamination: Using public problems risks LLMs having seen the solutions during training. The researchers had to use only problems from 2023 to mitigate this.

Platform Instability: Leetcode’s metrics drift over time — memory measurements showed a -0.24 correlation with test date. This makes reproducible benchmarking nearly impossible.

Measurement Reliability: The weak correlation between local and platform measurements raises questions about what we’re actually testing.

What It Means for LLM Benchmarking

This study doesn’t just critique Leetcode — it highlights what we need in a code generation benchmark: reproducible measurements, reliable performance metrics, and guaranteed training-test separation. Until we have platforms built specifically for this purpose, we need to be extremely cautious about using competition platforms as benchmarks.

So! We know that not all benchmarks are viable benchmarks — what about a more mainstream one?

Case Study #2: SuperGLUE — Building a Better Language Understanding Benchmark

The SuperGLUE paper tackles a fascinating problem in AI benchmarking: what do you do when models get too good at your tests? When GLUE became insufficient (with models surpassing human performance), the researchers had to rethink how we measure language understanding.

The Benchmark Design

SuperGLUE’s core innovation is its task selection methodology. The researchers collected task proposals from the NLP community and filtered them through a rigorous process: each task needed clear evaluation metrics, public training data, and — most importantly — significant headroom between machine and human performance.

This resulted in eight tasks (I’ve simplified the table from the document here, it’s a little less readable but you should get the sense of what the questions are asking):

SuperGLUE: A Stickier Benchmark for General-Purpose Language Understanding Systems, In 33rd Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2019), Vancouver, Canada (2019)

What makes these tasks special is their diversity in format. Unlike GLUE’s focus on sentence classification, SuperGLUE includes coreference resolution, reading comprehension, and more com plex reasoning tasks. Each task measures different aspects of language understanding while maintaining clear, quantifiable metrics.


Part 2: Let’s Build a Physical Reasoning Benchmark: To Cheat at Escape Rooms

After looking at some benchmarks like SuperGLUE and Leetcode, I had an idea: what if we tested LLMs on something completely different — physical reasoning… through escape room puzzles?

It’s a pretty valid idea — escape rooms poses possibilities and consequences for failure — screw up one too many puzzles, and your friends will think you’re pretty stupid, and relegate you to spectator duty. Luckily for us however, they (or the poor employees) don’t know that you can sneak a phone into an escape room — and you know just who to ask for the answers. Today, LLMs face off against the puzzles of a physical escape room.

Note: This is NOT a rigorous academic benchmark (please don’t cite this in papers, why would you even want to do that?), or even close to it, and it’s just supposed to be a fun way to test LLM benchmarking and evaluation. Please do not destroy my prompts, I am aware they are bad.

Why Physical Reasoning?

For real, though… most LLM benchmarks focus on linguistic tasks (like SuperGLUE) or code generation (like Leetcode). And for good reason — these are well-defined domains with clear evaluation metrics. But real-world problem solving often requires understanding physical principles and their interactions. The famous “Can GPT-4 do physics?” debates usually center around mathematical problem-solving, not practical physical reasoning.

Looking at existing benchmarks taught me a few key principles:

  1. Clear evaluation metrics are crucial (from SuperGLUE’s task-specific scores)
  2. Problems should have unambiguous solutions (from HumanEval’s test cases)
  3. The benchmark should test distinct capabilities (from MMLU’s subject categories)

Designing the Problems

I settled on escape room puzzles for two reasons. First, they naturally combine physical reasoning with clear goals. Second, they have unambiguous success conditions — either you solve it through the intended way, or you don’t. Third, and most importantly, they let me include “red herrings” — irrelevant items that test if the LLM can identify what matters physically. Fourth, I just really like doing escape rooms (did I mention that already?),

I am aware that this is more than two reasons, but if LLMs can’t count how many rs’ there are in strawberry, I’m allowed to mess up once in a while too.

Here’s how I structured the five core problems:

Fluid Dynamics (FLUID_001) (Ping pong ball stuck in a tube)

  • Tests understanding of buoyancy and fluid displacement
  • Inspired by classic physics problems but in practical context
  • Includes intentionally irrelevant items (like squishy food models)

Light Properties (UV_001) (UV light on a push numebr lock)

  • Tests understanding of UV fluorescence and material properties
  • Combines multiple physical principles (light, material science)
  • Requires understanding of environmental conditions

Mechanical Understanding (CIPHER_001) (A cipher ring)

  • Tests spatial reasoning and mechanical alignment
  • No red herrings — tests for correlating a dial to a cypher wheel
  • Requires understanding rotational symmetry

Force Application (VAC_001) (Can stuck in hole)

  • Tests understanding of vacuum forces and surface adhesion
  • Multiple possible solution approaches
  • Requires understanding force multiplication

Collaborative Physics (COLLAB_001) (Can two people shimmy a key?)

  • Tests understanding of physical constraints in multi-agent scenarios
  • Requires combining multiple physical principles
  • Tests understanding of tool creation and friction

Sounds really fancy… but it’s just some basic physical puzzles. You can access them on my GitHub.

The Technical Part

The benchmark implementation has three main components:

Problem Definition Layer

Problems are defined in a structured JSON format that enforces consistent evaluation:

{
    "problem_id": "FLUID_001",
    "setup": {
        "scenario": "A ping pong ball is at the bottom of a narrow tube...",
        "available_items": ["bottle of water", "squishy food models"...],
        "constraints": ["tube too narrow for manual retrieval"]
    },
    "physical_principles": ["buoyancy", "fluid displacement"],
    "red_herrings": ["squishy food models", "milk carton"],
    "solution": {
        "steps": ["pour water into tube", "allow ball to float"],
        "key_insights": ["water displaces air", "ping pong ball less dense"]
    }
}

This structure draws from SuperGLUE’s design — each component is clearly separated and machine-readable. The physical_principles field explicitly lists what’s being tested, while red_herrings helps in scoring the LLM’s ability to ignore irrelevant information.

2. Evaluation Framework

The evaluation system uses Python’s asyncio for concurrent testing, with retry logic for a little bit more API stability:

@retry(stop=stop_after_attempt(3), wait=wait_exponential(min=1, max=10))
async def evaluate_response(self, criteria: JudgingCriteria) -> Dict:
    """Evaluate a model's response using GPT-4 as judge."""
    async with aiohttp.ClientSession() as session:
        # ... evaluation logic

The scoring system looks at three components:

Physical Understanding Score (PUS) ∈ [0,2]

  • Measures understanding of relevant physical principles
  • Calculated as normalized sum of demonstrated principles

Solution Path Score (SPS) ∈ [0,2]

  • Evaluates completeness and correctness of solution steps
  • Considers practical feasibility of proposed solutions

Red Herring Handling (RHH) ∈ {0,1}

  • A Binary score for avoiding irrelevant items
  • Tests ability to focus on physically relevant factors

And yes, there are also so many other scoring methods, better and worse, that could be used! For example, RHH could be about how many irrelevant items are used in the solution, or it could be a measure of how viable the use is… the point is that picking these metrics are often times pretty arbitrary, but are very very important to making your benchmark is credible, which mine is very much not.

Additionally, I did not want to rewrite any code after. Sue me.

3. Model Interface Layer

The benchmark supports multiple LLM backends through a common interface:

class ModelInterface:
    """Interface for different LLM APIs."""
    async def generate_response(self, prompt: str) -> str:
        raise NotImplementedError
class GPT4Interface(ModelInterface):
    async def generate_response(self, prompt: str) -> str:
        # GPT-4 specific implementation
class ClaudeInterface(ModelInterface):
    async def generate_response(self, prompt: str) -> str:
        # Claude specific implementation

Two models… I can’t really afford any more, please understand.

Let’s Test It!

So after some refilling of API balances, I was ready to go. I ran the benchmark, and after totally not wasting credits on like, 5 different errors, the results were in. And they were… interesting! I used GPT4 and Claude 3.5 Haiku (I am aware these are not similarly spec-ed models) as our victims.

The Challenge: A can is stuck in a hole that almost exactly matches its volume. A combination is written on the bottom of the can that needs to be retrieved.

The inspiration
"VAC_001": {
        "problem_id": "VAC_001",
        "setup": {
            "available_items": [
                "ruler",
                "notebook",
                "suction cup",
                "UV light"
            ],
            "constraints": [
                "can fits too tightly for finger grip",
                "hole is same diameter as can",
                "can is clean and dry"
            ]
        },
        "physical_principles": [
            "vacuum suction",
            "surface adhesion",
            "force multiplication"
        ],
        "red_herrings": [
            "ruler",
            "notebook",
            "UV light"
        ],
        "solution": {
            "steps": [
                "inspect suction cup and can surface",
                "ensure can surface is clean",
                "firmly press suction cup onto can top",
                "create vacuum seal",
                "pull can out using suction cup"
            ],
            "key_insights": [
                "suction cup creates vacuum seal",
                "vacuum force allows extraction",
                "other items don't provide necessary force"
            ]
        }

GPT-4’s Solution

Physical Principles: The main physical principle involved in this solution is the concept of air pressure differential, which is the same principle that allows a suction cup to stick to a surface. Air pressure is higher on one side of the suction cup (outside) compared to the other (inside), and this difference in pressure causes the cup to stick to the surface.

Solution Steps:

  1. Attach the suction cup to the top of the can. The flat surface of the can should provide a good contact for the suction cup to adhere to.
  2. Once the suction cup is firmly attached, gently pull upwards. The air pressure differential should cause the suction cup (and thus the can) to be lifted out of the hole.
  3. Once the can is out of the hole, remove the suction cup from the top of the can.
  4. Use the UV light to illuminate the combination written on the bottom of the can. Some inks only become visible under UV light, which is why this step is necessary.
  5. Write down the combination on the notebook to ensure it’s not forgotten.

Required Items:

  • Suction cup: This is required to adhere to the can and pull it out of the hole, as the can fits too tightly for finger grip.
  • UV light: This is required to reveal the combination written on the bottom of the can, as it may be written in ink that only becomes visible under UV light.
  • Notebook: This is required to record the combination once it’s visible, ensuring it’s not forgotten.”

Not bad at all! GPT-4 manages to figure out the physical principle behind the solution (even if it is very wordy), and manages to step-by-step describe how to solve the problem. It does end up using the UV light and notebook, but that’s more of a problem on my end, not punishing the use of unnecessary items in the prompt enough. Also, the uses for these items seem decently reasonable… so why not!

Haiku-3.5’s Solution

Physical Principles: The key physical principles involved in this scenario are the concept of volume and the use of suction to extract the can from the hole. Since the can fits almost exactly into the hole, it is likely that the can is stuck due to the tight fit and the lack of any air gaps or space between the can and the hole. This tight fit creates a vacuum-like effect, making it difficult to grip and pull the can out.

Solution Steps:

  1. Measure the diameter of the can using the ruler. This will help determine the size of the hole and confirm that the can fits tightly within it.
  2. Inspect the bottom of the can to locate the combination written on it. Use the UV light to illuminate the bottom of the can and make the combination visible, if it is not already clearly visible.
  3. Attach the suction cup to the top of the can. The suction cup will create a temporary seal on the can’s surface, allowing you to grip and pull it out of the hole.
  4. Gently pull the can upwards using the suction cup. The suction force should be strong enough to overcome the vacuum-like effect and extract the can from the hole.
  5. Once the can is out, record the combination written on the bottom of the can in the notebook.

Required Items:

  • Ruler: To measure the diameter of the can and confirm the tight fit in the hole.
  • UV light: To illuminate the bottom of the can and make the combination visible, if it is not already clearly visible.
  • Suction cup: To create a temporary seal on the can’s surface and provide the necessary grip to pull the can out of the hole.
  • Notebook: To record the combination written on the bottom of the can.

On the other hand, Haiku’s solution was.. certainly a solution of all time.

First, it wants to measure the diameter of the can using the ruler??? To determine the size of the hole and confirm that the can fits tightly within it? Why would we need to do this? And do we need a ruler for that?

Second, it tells us to inspect the bottom of the can to locate the combination, when the entire problem is about not being able to pull the can out of the hole conventionally. This might just be an issue of order, but now I truly understand my friends’ feelings whenever I would tell them “just fix it man” to their numerous problems.

But it eventually does get the solution. So… not the worst.

Here’s a fancy radar graph of the results!

We see that both models are pretty similar in their capabilities, with GPT-4 being slightly better in physical understanding and solution path, and Haiku being slightly better in red herring handling. Overall though, both models kind of suck. Dang.

There are also only… 5 questions.

If you’d like to see the full breadth of questions, they’re on my GitHub.

LLM-as-a-Judge

By the way, the method I used to generate the evaluations, LLM-as-a-judge, has gained significant traction in the AI community, particularly after the work of Zheng et al. in their 2023 paper “Judging LLM-as-a-Judge.” The technique has proven remarkably effective, achieving over 80% agreement with human evaluators in tasks ranging from code assessment to dialogue quality evaluation!

Here’s where my experiment gets kind of cool (arguably, maybe, subjectively) — I used this methodology and had GPT-4 judge other LLMs’ physical reasoning abilities. Yes, I’m using an AI to judge other AIs.

Why does this work? Well, judging a response is actually a simpler task than generating one. When GPT-4 generates a solution to a physical puzzle, it needs to:

  • Understand the physical principles involved
  • Plan a sequence of steps
  • Consider all constraints
  • Generate a coherent explanation

But when judging, it only needs to check if specific criteria are met in an existing solution. The evaluation prompt is very focused:

def _create_evaluation_prompt(self, criteria: JudgingCriteria) -> str:
    return f"""You are an expert judge evaluating an LLM's understanding of physical reasoning puzzles.
Evaluate based on three criteria:
2. Physical Understanding Score (0-2): Does the solution correctly apply relevant physical principles?
3. Solution Path Score (0-2): Are the steps complete and feasible?
4. Red Herring Handling (0-1): Does it avoid using irrelevant items?
Scenario: {criteria.scenario}
Physical Principles Required: {criteria.correct_principles}
Solution Given: {criteria.model_response}
"""

To validate this approach, I followed the validation framework suggested by Zheng et al., performing spot-checks of GPT-4’s evaluations against my own judgments. Surprisingly (or perhaps unsurprisingly, given the broader research on LLM evaluation), it was remarkably consistent in identifying both correct physical understanding and flawed reasoning.

Is this perfect? Absolutely not. There’s something philosophically weird about using one LLM to evaluate another. But in practice, it can work surprisingly well — just like how I moan and groan about the visual presentation of a dish on Masterchef, while setting my kitchen aflame trying to microwave a hot dog.

What I Learned

Building this benchmark taught me several things about benchmark design:

Clear Metrics Matter: Even for complex tasks like physical reasoning, you need unambiguous scoring criteria.

Red Herrings Are Powerful: Including irrelevant items reveals a lot about an LLM’s reasoning process.

Context Control is Hard: Ensuring LLMs don’t “hallucinate” additional physical context is challenging.

Is this a perfect benchmark? Not even close. Please don’t rub it in. Is it scientifically rigorous? Definitely not. But it’s been a fascinating exploration into an aspect of LLM capabilities, and sometimes the best we can learn can come from just trying things out and seeing what happens.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I will be sneaking in a phone with an internet connection into my next escape room, for reasons that I am legally unmotivated to disclose.

[1] L. Zheng, W.-L. Chiang, Y. Sheng, S. Zhuang, Z. Wu, Y. Zhuang, Z. Lin, Z. Li, D. Li, E. P. Xing, H. Zhang, J. E. Gonzalez, I. Stoica, “Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena,” Proceedings of the 37th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2023), Datasets and Benchmarks Track (2023)

[2] T. Coignion, C. Quinton, R. Rouvoy, “A Performance Study of LLM-Generated Code on Leetcode,” In 28th International Conference on Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering (EASE 2024), Salerno, Italy (2024)

[3] A. Wang, Y. Pruksachatkun, N. Nangia, A. Singh, J. Michael, F. Hill, O. Levy, S. R. Bowman, “SuperGLUE: A Stickier Benchmark for General-Purpose Language Understanding Systems,” In 33rd Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2019), Vancouver, Canada (2019)

[5] DeepSeek-AI, D. Guo, D. Yang, H. Zhang, J. Song, R. Zhang, R. Xu, Q. Zhu, S. Ma, P. Wang, X. Bi, X. Zhang, X. Yu, Y. Wu, Z.F. Wu, Z. Gou, Z. Shao, Z. Li, Z. Gao et al., “DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2501.12948 (2025)

[6] Unless otherwise stated, all images are created by the author.

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Harbour Energy to add North Sea assets through Waldorf acquisition

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EIA: US oil inventories drop 1.8 million bbl

US commercial crude inventories for the week ended Dec. 5, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, dropped 1.8 million bbl from the previous week to 425.7 million bbl, which is about 4% below the average range for this time of year, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Total motor gasoline inventories gained 6.4 million bbl last week and are about 1% below the 5-year average range for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories rose. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.5 million bbl but are 7% below the 5-year average for this time of year. EIA reported that US crude refinery inputs last week averaged 16.9 million b/d, down 17,000 b/d from the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.5% of their operable capacity. Gasoline production decreased to 9.6 million b/d, while distillate fuel production increased by 380,000 b/d, averaging 5.4 million b/d. US crude imports averaged 6.6 million b/d, up 609,000 b/d from the previous week’s average. Over the last 4 weeks, crude imports averaged 6.2 million b/d, down 7.7% from the same 4-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports, including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components, averaged 659,000 b/d. Distillate fuel imports averaged 181,000 b/d last week.

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Macquarie: Oil oversupply deepens as inventory growth accelerates

The global crude market remains firmly oversupplied, and current trends point to an increasingly imbalanced supply–demand environment through late-2025 and into early-2026. According to a note from Macquarie Group, a peak surplus of more than 4 million b/d is expected by first-quarter 2026. Signs of the surplus are showing with continued offshore builds, increasing onshore builds, and extremely strong freight rates, said Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist, Macquarie. Offshore crude inventories have surged by roughly 250 million bbl since late August, while onshore storage has risen by about 30 million bbl over the same period. Over the past month alone, combined offshore and onshore builds have accelerated to nearly 3 million b/d. Despite these rapid stock increases, the forward curve remains in backwardation—supported by continued Atlantic-to-Asia flows. Roughly one-third of offshore builds are linked to long-haul shipments originating from the Americas and moving toward Asia, tying up floating storage and delaying the impact on onshore tanks. However, as these volumes eventually discharge, the market expects visible onshore builds to accelerate—particularly in Asia first, followed by the US and Europe, the report said. “We expect onshore builds to accelerate through year 2025 and into early 2026, a process which should drive Brent towards the low $50 range with a possibility of reaching $45/bbl,” Macquarie reported.   Market signals Crude tanker freight rates are exceptionally high amid limited vessel availability. If rates climb further, key arbitrage pathways could shut, forcing more crude into onshore storage. Conversely, once cargoes discharge and vessels are freed up, freight rates could correct lower—another step that typically precedes visible inventory builds. “Either way, a freight sell off should lead rising storage statistics,” Macquarie said.  Meantime, price pressure is now spreading across core benchmarks. North Sea markers have softened, while key Brent-linked grades such as West African barrels and

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Executive Roundtable: Converging Disciplines in the AI Buildout

At Data Center Frontier, we rely on industry leaders to help us understand the most urgent challenges facing digital infrastructure. And in the fourth quarter of 2025, the data center industry is adjusting to a new kind of complexity.  AI-scale infrastructure is redefining what “mission critical” means, from megawatt density and modular delivery to the chemistry of cooling fluids and the automation of energy systems. Every project has arguably in effect now become an ecosystem challenge, demanding that electrical, mechanical, construction, and environmental disciplines act as one.  For this quarter’s Executive Roundtable, DCF convened subject matter experts from Ecolab, EdgeConneX, Rehlko and Schneider Electric – leaders spanning the full chain of facilities design, deployment, and operation. Their insights illuminate how liquid cooling, energy management, and sustainable process design in data centers are now converging to set the pace for the AI era. Our distinguished executive panelists for this quarter include: Rob Lowe, Director RD&E – Global High Tech, Ecolab Phillip Marangella, Chief Marketing and Product Officer, EdgeConneX Ben Rapp, Manager, Strategic Project Development, Rehlko Joe Reele, Vice President, Datacenter Solution Architects, Schneider Electric Today: Engineering the New Normal – Liquid Cooling at Scale  Today’s kickoff article grapples with how, as liquid cooling technology transitions to default hyperscale design, the challenge is no longer if, but how to scale builds safely, repeatably, and globally.  Cold plates, immersion, dielectric fluids, and liquid-to-chip loops are converging into factory-integrated building blocks, yet variability in chemistry, serviceability, materials, commissioning practices, and long-term maintenance threatens to fragment adoption just as demand accelerates.  Success now hinges on shared standards and tighter collaboration across OEMs, builders, and process specialists worldwide. So how do developers coordinate across the ecosystem to make liquid cooling a safe, maintainable global default? What’s Ahead in the Roundtable Over the coming days, our panel

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DCF Trends Summit 2025: AI for Good – How Operators, Vendors and Cooling Specialists See the Next Phase of AI Data Centers

At the 2025 Data Center Frontier Trends Summit (Aug. 26-28) in Reston, Va., the conversation around AI and infrastructure moved well past the hype. In a panel sponsored by Schneider Electric—“AI for Good: Building for AI Workloads and Using AI for Smarter Data Centers”—three industry leaders explored what it really means to design, cool and operate the new class of AI “factories,” while also turning AI inward to run those facilities more intelligently. Moderated by Data Center Frontier Editor in Chief Matt Vincent, the session brought together: Steve Carlini, VP, Innovation and Data Center Energy Management Business, Schneider Electric Sudhir Kalra, Chief Data Center Operations Officer, Compass Datacenters Andrew Whitmore, VP of Sales, Motivair Together, they traced both sides of the “AI for Good” equation: building for AI workloads at densities that would have sounded impossible just a few years ago, and using AI itself to reduce risk, improve efficiency and minimize environmental impact. From Bubble Talk to “AI Factories” Carlini opened by acknowledging the volatility surrounding AI investments, citing recent headlines and even Sam Altman’s public use of the word “bubble” to describe the current phase of exuberance. “It’s moving at an incredible pace,” Carlini noted, pointing out that roughly half of all VC money this year has flowed into AI, with more already spent than in all of the previous year. Not every investor will win, he said, and some companies pouring in hundreds of billions may not recoup their capital. But for infrastructure, the signal is clear: the trajectory is up and to the right. GPU generations are cycling faster than ever. Densities are climbing from high double-digits per rack toward hundreds of kilowatts. The hyperscale “AI factories,” as NVIDIA calls them, are scaling to campus capacities measured in gigawatts. Carlini reminded the audience that in 2024,

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FinOps Foundation sharpens FOCUS to reduce cloud cost chaos

“The big change that’s really started to happen in late 2024 early 2025 is that the FinOps practice started to expand past the cloud,” Storment said. “A lot of organizations got really good at using FinOps to manage the value of cloud, and then their organizations went, ‘oh, hey, we’re living in this happily hybrid state now where we’ve got cloud, SaaS, data center. Can you also apply the FinOps practice to our SaaS? Or can you apply it to our Snowflake? Can you apply it to our data center?’” The FinOps Foundation’s community has grown to approximately 100,000 practitioners. The organization now includes major cloud vendors, hardware providers like Nvidia and AMD, data center operators and data cloud platforms like Snowflake and Databricks. Some 96 of the Fortune 100 now participate in FinOps Foundation programs. The practice itself has shifted in two directions. It has moved left into earlier architectural and design processes, becoming more proactive rather than reactive. It has also moved up organizationally, from director-level cloud management roles to SVP and COO positions managing converged technology portfolios spanning multiple infrastructure types. This expansion has driven the evolution of FOCUS beyond its original cloud billing focus. Enterprises are implementing FOCUS as an internal standard for chargeback reporting even when their providers don’t generate native FOCUS data. Some newer cloud providers, particularly those focused on AI infrastructure, are using the FOCUS specification to define their billing data structures from the ground up rather than retrofitting existing systems. The FOCUS 1.3 release reflects this maturation, addressing technical gaps that have emerged as organizations apply cost management practices across increasingly complex hybrid environments. FOCUS 1.3 exposes cost allocation logic for shared infrastructure The most significant technical enhancement in FOCUS 1.3 addresses a gap in how shared infrastructure costs are allocated and

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Aetherflux joins the race to launch orbital data centers by 2027

Enterprises will connect to and manage orbital workloads “the same way they manage cloud workloads today,” using optical links, the spokesperson added. The company’s approach is to “continuously launch new hardware and quickly integrate the latest architectures,” with older systems running lower-priority tasks to serve out the full useful lifetime of their high-end GPUs. The company declined to disclose pricing. Aetherflux plans to launch about 30 satellites at a time on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets. Before the data center launch, the company will launch a power-beaming demonstration satellite in 2026 to test transmission of one kilowatt of energy from orbit to ground stations, using infrared lasers. Competition in the sector has intensified in recent months. In November, Starcloud launched its Starcloud-1 satellite carrying an Nvidia H100 GPU, which is 100 times more powerful than any previous GPU flown in space, according to the company, and demonstrated running Google’s Gemma AI model in orbit. In the same month, Google announced Project Suncatcher, with a 2027 demonstration mission planned. Analysts see limited near-term applications Despite the competitive activity, orbital data centers won’t replace terrestrial cloud regions for general hosting through 2030, said Ashish Banerjee, senior principal analyst at Gartner. Instead, they suit specific workloads, including meeting data sovereignty requirements for jurisdictionally complex scenarios, offering disaster recovery immune to terrestrial risks, and providing asynchronous high-performance computing, he said. “Orbital centers are ideal for high-compute, low-I/O batch jobs,” Banerjee said. “Think molecular folding simulations for pharma, massive Monte Carlo financial simulations, or training specific AI model weights. If the job takes 48 hours, the 500ms latency penalty of LEO is irrelevant.” One immediate application involves processing satellite-generated data in orbit, he said. Earth observation satellites using synthetic aperture radar generate roughly 10 gigabytes per second, but limited downlink bandwidth creates bottlenecks. Processing data in

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Here’s what Oracle’s soaring infrastructure spend could mean for enterprises

He said he had earlier told analysts in a separate call that margins for AI workloads in these data centers would be in the 30% to 40% range over the life of a customer contract. Kehring reassured that there would be demand for the data centers when they were completed, pointing to Oracle’s increasing remaining performance obligations, or services contracted but not yet delivered, up $68 billion on the previous quarter, saying that Oracle has been seeing unprecedented demand for AI workloads driven by the likes of Meta and Nvidia. Rising debt and margin risks raise flags for CIOs For analysts, though, the swelling debt load is hard to dismiss, even with Oracle’s attempts to de-risk its spend and squeeze more efficiency out of its buildouts. Gogia sees Oracle already under pressure, with the financial ecosystem around the company pricing the risk — one of the largest debts in corporate history, crossing $100 billion even before the capex spend this quarter — evident in the rising cost of insuring the debt and the shift in credit outlook. “The combination of heavy capex, negative free cash flow, increasing financing cost and long-dated revenue commitments forms a structural pressure that will invariably finds its way into the commercial posture of the vendor,” Gogia said, hinting at an “eventual” increase in pricing of the company’s offerings. He was equally unconvinced by Magouyrk’s assurances about the margin profile of AI workloads as he believes that AI infrastructure, particularly GPU-heavy clusters, delivers significantly lower margins in the early years because utilisation takes time to ramp.

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New Nvidia software gives data centers deeper visibility into GPU thermals and reliability

Addressing the challenge Modern AI accelerators now draw more than 700W per GPU, and multi-GPU nodes can reach 6kW, creating concentrated heat zones, rapid power swings, and a higher risk of interconnect degradation in dense racks, according to Manish Rawat, semiconductor analyst at TechInsights. Traditional cooling methods and static power planning increasingly struggle to keep pace with these loads. “Rich vendor telemetry covering real-time power draw, bandwidth behavior, interconnect health, and airflow patterns shifts operators from reactive monitoring to proactive design,” Rawat said. “It enables thermally aware workload placement, faster adoption of liquid or hybrid cooling, and smarter network layouts that reduce heat-dense traffic clusters.” Rawat added that the software’s fleet-level configuration insights can also help operators catch silent errors caused by mismatched firmware or driver versions. This can improve training reproducibility and strengthen overall fleet stability. “Real-time error and interconnect health data also significantly accelerates root-cause analysis, reducing MTTR and minimizing cluster fragmentation,” Rawat said. These operational pressures can shape budget decisions and infrastructure strategy at the enterprise level.

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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