In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Thursday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists outlined that they “see potential for a meaningful U.S. crude build” in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) next weekly petroleum status report.
That EIA report is scheduled to be released on January 15 and will include data for the week ending January 10.
“Looking ahead to next week’s release, we yet again see potential for a meaningful U.S. crude build (+4.3 million barrels), with runs moderately lower (-0.3 million barrels per day), nominal implied supply bouncing back (+0.4 million barrels per day) despite potential freeze impacts, net imports slightly higher (+0.1 million barrels per day), and a larger increase in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] inventory (+0.9 million barrels) on the week,” the Macquarie strategists said in the oil and gas report.
“We note potential for volatility in these figures given the incomplete nature of this week’s data. Among products, our preliminary expectations yet again point to a large build in gasoline (+5.5 million barrels) with distillate (+0.5 million barrels) and jet stocks (+1.7 million barrels) also higher,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists noted in the report that, this week, the EIA “again reported draws in commercial crude (-1.0 million barrels) and at Cushing (-2.5 million barrels) with large product builds (gasoline +6.3 million barrels, distillate +6.1 million barrels, jet +0.4 million barrels)”.
“Again this week, the crude balance realized much tighter than our expectations, while in aggregate, product builds exceeded even our lofty expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“With respect to this week’s crude stats, as we previously noted, year-end/timing effects may have added noise to the balance,” they added.
“Within the crude balance, runs yet again exceeded our expectation (+0.3 million barrels per day), with net imports slightly higher than expected on a nominal basis (+0.1 million barrels per day),” the strategists went on to state.
The Macquarie strategists highlighted in the report that “implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+trans.) was again nominally soft this week at 13.5 million barrels per day”, pointing out that they “modeled ~14.3 million barrels per day”.
“Yet, we note potential noise in the crude balance this week with PADD 5 showing a relatively large inventory draw and apparent implied supply weakness,” they stated.
The strategists pointed out in the report that, “among products, implied demand was slightly above” their expectation this week, “with gasoline+distillate+jet at 13.4 million barrels per day (vs. ~13.2 million barrel per day est.), with the trailing four week average at 14.1 million barrels per day vs. 13.6 million barrels per day for the same four weeks last year”.
“In contrast, total disappearance (impl. demand + exports) for those three products slightly below our expectation at 15.8 million barrels per day (vs. ~15.9 million barrels per day est.), with the trailing four week average at 16.7 million barrels per day vs. 16.0 million barrels per day for the same four weeks last year,” they added.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 1.0 million barrels from the week ending December 27 to the week ending January 3, the EIA highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on January 8 and included data for the week ending January 3.
Crude oil stocks, excluding the SPR, stood at 414.6 million barrels on January 3, 415.6 million barrels on December 27, and 432.4 million barrels on January 5, 2024, the report revealed. Crude oil in the SPR came in at 393.8 million barrels on January 3, 393.6 million barrels on December 27, and 355.0 million barrels on January 5, 2024, the report showed.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.628 billion barrels on January 3, the report revealed. This figure was up 5.3 million barrels week on week and up 13.0 million barrels year on year, the report outlined.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone on Thursday morning by the SEB team, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at the company, noted that “Brent pulled back on technical exhaustion and somewhat disappointing U.S. inventories”.
“Brent crude rose to a high of $77.89 per barrel yesterday [Wednesday] before selling off along with disappointing U.S. inventory data. It ended the day at $76.16 per barrel, down 1.2 percent from the day before and 2.3 percent from the intraday high,” he added.
“The RSI measure came very close to overbought level at 70 at the middle of the day,” he went on to state.
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