
Oil prices are likely to be lower in 2025 than last year, Wood Mackenzie said in a statement sent to Rigzone this week.
In that statement, Wood Mackenzie revealed that its latest monthly oil market outlook sees Brent crude oil prices averaging $73 per barrel in 2025. That’s down $7 per barrel per barrel from 2024, Wood Mackenzie highlighted in its statement. It pointed out that the $73 per barrel forecast for this year is revised down $0.40 per barrel from an early February monthly report.
Wood Mackenzie noted in the statement that the outlook is primarily shaped by two factors – OPEC+ production plans and U.S. tariff policies.
Highlighting several “key points” from its forecast, Wood Mackenzie said in the statement that OPEC+ plans to increase production in small monthly increments from April 2025 through September 2026 and stated that postponing this plan would support prices and could offset the impact of additional U.S. tariffs.
Pointing out another “key point” from its forecast in the statement, Wood Mackenzie said global economic growth for 2025 is projected at 2.8 percent but added that this could be adjusted downward by around 0.5 percentage points depending on potential trade war scenarios.
Wood Mackenzie went on to note in the statement that slower GDP growth could reduce the oil demand increase in 2025 by about 0.4 million barrels per day and said the annual average for Brent crude could be $3 to $5 per barrel lower if oil demand growth weakens.
“Wood Mackenzie emphasizes that these projections are subject to change based on global economic conditions, tariff and trade policies, and OPEC+ decisions,” the company highlighted in the statement.
Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President of Oils Research at Wood Mackenzie, said in the statement, “we’re seeing a complex interplay of supply and demand factors”.
“While global demand is expected to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, non-OPEC production is forecasted to rise by 1.4 million barrels per day, potentially outpacing demand growth,” Hittle added.
“Slower GDP growth would put the demand gain in 2025 about 0.4 million barrels per day less than the current projection for the year … The resulting 0.7 million barrel per day year on year gain would be surpassed to a greater degree by the increase in non-OPEC supply, the majority of which is from conventional projects, so largely independent to oil price,” Hittle continued.
“This risk would leave little room for OPEC+ to pursue its plan to bring output back into the market,” Hittle went on to state.
In a report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell late Tuesday, analysts at Standard Chartered Bank, including Horsnell, said, “oil prices have been resilient in the face of extreme negativity”, adding that, in their view, “oil prices have held up surprising[ly] well over the past week”.
“Numerous headwinds could have pushed Brent prices more decisively below $70 per barrel, but … front-month Brent has exceeded $70 per barrel at some point on each of the past eight trading days,” the analysts stated in the report.
In the report, the Standard Chartered Bank analysts said speculative positioning remains skewed to the short side of the market, particularly for gasoline and crude oil, and noted that trader sentiment remains negative in the face of concerns over the potential demand effects of U.S. tariff policies and the potential supply effects of a U.S. switch to policies that are more accommodative of Russian targets.
“There have also been some gamma effects at work … and further downside bias has come from the market seemingly pricing in all the potential OPEC+ supply increments along the curve at once, rather than treating the rolling back of voluntary cuts as being on a flexible schedule determined by underlining balances,” the Standard Chartered Bank analysts said in the report.
“Further negativity has come from some investment banks, which have quantified the goal of the new U.S. administration’s policies as being $50 per barrel or lower prices and have endorsed the possibility and sustainability of such an outcome,” they added.
“Given the above catalogue of highly negative factors, a slump towards $60 per barrel might have looked more likely (and more explainable) over the past week rather than the modest rebound back above $70 per barrel that has taken place,” they continued.
Rigzone has contacted the Trump transition team, the White House, and OPEC for comment on Wood Mackenzie’s statement and Standard Chartered Bank’s report. Rigzone has also contacted the Department of Information and Press of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Standard Chartered Bank’s report. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.
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