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R.E.D.: Scaling Text Classification with Expert Delegation

With the new age of problem-solving augmented by Large Language Models (LLMs), only a handful of problems remain that have subpar solutions. Most classification problems (at a PoC level) can be solved by leveraging LLMs at 70–90% Precision/F1 with just good prompt engineering techniques, as well as adaptive in-context-learning (ICL) examples. What happens when you want to consistently achieve performance higher than that — when prompt engineering no longer suffices? The classification conundrum Text classification is one of the oldest and most well-understood examples of supervised learning. Given this premise, it should really not be hard to build robust, well-performing classifiers that handle a large number of input classes, right…? Welp. It is. It actually has to do a lot more with the ‘constraints’ that the algorithm is generally expected to work under: low amount of training data per class high classification accuracy (that plummets as you add more classes) possible addition of new classes to an existing subset of classes quick training/inference cost-effectiveness (potentially) really large number of training classes (potentially) endless required retraining of some classes due to data drift, etc. Ever tried building a classifier beyond a few dozen classes under these conditions? (I mean, even GPT could probably do a great job up to ~30 text classes with just a few samples…) Considering you take the GPT route — If you have more than a couple dozen classes or a sizeable amount of data to be classified, you are gonna have to reach deep into your pockets with the system prompt, user prompt, few shot example tokens that you will need to classify one sample. That is after making peace with the throughput of the API, even if you are running async queries. In applied ML, problems like these are generally tricky to solve since they don’t fully satisfy the requirements of supervised learning or aren’t cheap/fast enough to be run via an LLM. This particular pain point is what the R.E.D algorithm addresses: semi-supervised learning, when the training data per class is not enough to build (quasi)traditional classifiers. The R.E.D. algorithm R.E.D: Recursive Expert Delegation is a novel framework that changes how we approach text classification. This is an applied ML paradigm — i.e., there is no fundamentally different architecture to what exists, but its a highlight reel of ideas that work best to build something that is practical and scalable. In this post, we will be working through a specific example where we have a large number of text classes (100–1000), each class only has few samples (30–100), and there are a non-trivial number of samples to classify (10,000–100,000). We approach this as a semi-supervised learning problem via R.E.D. Let’s dive in. How it works simple representation of what R.E.D. does Instead of having a single classifier classify between a large number of classes, R.E.D. intelligently: Divides and conquers — Break the label space (large number of input labels) into multiple subsets of labels. This is a greedy label subset formation approach. Learns efficiently — Trains specialized classifiers for each subset. This step focuses on building a classifier that oversamples on noise, where noise is intelligently modeled as data from other subsets. Delegates to an expert — Employes LLMs as expert oracles for specific label validation and correction only, similar to having a team of domain experts. Using an LLM as a proxy, it empirically ‘mimics’ how a human expert validates an output. Recursive retraining — Continuously retrains with fresh samples added back from the expert until there are no more samples to be added/a saturation from information gain is achieved The intuition behind it is not very hard to grasp: Active Learning employs humans as domain experts to consistently ‘correct’ or ‘validate’ the outputs from an ML model, with continuous training. This stops when the model achieves acceptable performance. We intuit and rebrand the same, with a few clever innovations that will be detailed in a research pre-print later. Let’s take a deeper look… Greedy subset selection with least similar elements When the number of input labels (classes) is high, the complexity of learning a linear decision boundary between classes increases. As such, the quality of the classifier deteriorates as the number of classes increases. This is especially true when the classifier does not have enough samples to learn from — i.e. each of the training classes has only a few samples. This is very reflective of a real-world scenario, and the primary motivation behind the creation of R.E.D. Some ways of improving a classifier’s performance under these constraints: Restrict the number of classes a classifier needs to classify between Make the decision boundary between classes clearer, i.e., train the classifier on highly dissimilar classes Greedy Subset Selection does exactly this — since the scope of the problem is Text Classification, we form embeddings of the training labels, reduce their dimensionality via UMAP, then form S subsets from them. Each of the S subsets has elements as n training labels. We pick training labels greedily, ensuring that every label we pick for the subset is the most dissimilar label w.r.t. the other labels that exist in the subset: import numpy as np from sklearn.metrics.pairwise import cosine_similarity def avg_embedding(candidate_embeddings): return np.mean(candidate_embeddings, axis=0) def get_least_similar_embedding(target_embedding, candidate_embeddings): similarities = cosine_similarity(target_embedding, candidate_embeddings) least_similar_index = np.argmin(similarities) # Use argmin to find the index of the minimum least_similar_element = candidate_embeddings[least_similar_index] return least_similar_element def get_embedding_class(embedding, embedding_map): reverse_embedding_map = {value: key for key, value in embedding_map.items()} return reverse_embedding_map.get(embedding) # Use .get() to handle missing keys gracefully def select_subsets(embeddings, n): visited = {cls: False for cls in embeddings.keys()} subsets = [] current_subset = [] while any(not visited[cls] for cls in visited): for cls, average_embedding in embeddings.items(): if not current_subset: current_subset.append(average_embedding) visited[cls] = True elif len(current_subset) >= n: subsets.append(current_subset.copy()) current_subset = [] else: subset_average = avg_embedding(current_subset) remaining_embeddings = [emb for cls_, emb in embeddings.items() if not visited[cls_]] if not remaining_embeddings: break # handle edge case least_similar = get_least_similar_embedding(target_embedding=subset_average, candidate_embeddings=remaining_embeddings) visited_class = get_embedding_class(least_similar, embeddings) if visited_class is not None: visited[visited_class] = True current_subset.append(least_similar) if current_subset: # Add any remaining elements in current_subset subsets.append(current_subset) return subsets the result of this greedy subset sampling is all the training labels clearly boxed into subsets, where each subset has at most only n classes. This inherently makes the job of a classifier easier, compared to the original S classes it would have to classify between otherwise! Semi-supervised classification with noise oversampling Cascade this after the initial label subset formation — i.e., this classifier is only classifying between a given subset of classes. Picture this: when you have low amounts of training data, you absolutely cannot create a hold-out set that is meaningful for evaluation. Should you do it at all? How do you know if your classifier is working well? We approached this problem slightly differently — we defined the fundamental job of a semi-supervised classifier to be pre-emptive classification of a sample. This means that regardless of what a sample gets classified as it will be ‘verified’ and ‘corrected’ at a later stage: this classifier only needs to identify what needs to be verified. As such, we created a design for how it would treat its data: n+1 classes, where the last class is noise noise: data from classes that are NOT in the current classifier’s purview. The noise class is oversampled to be 2x the average size of the data for the classifier’s labels Oversampling on noise is a faux-safety measure, to ensure that adjacent data that belongs to another class is most likely predicted as noise instead of slipping through for verification. How do you check if this classifier is working well — in our experiments, we define this as the number of ‘uncertain’ samples in a classifier’s prediction. Using uncertainty sampling and information gain principles, we were effectively able to gauge if a classifier is ‘learning’ or not, which acts as a pointer towards classification performance. This classifier is consistently retrained unless there is an inflection point in the number of uncertain samples predicted, or there is only a delta of information being added iteratively by new samples. Proxy active learning via an LLM agent This is the heart of the approach — using an LLM as a proxy for a human validator. The human validator approach we are talking about is Active Labelling Let’s get an intuitive understanding of Active Labelling: Use an ML model to learn on a sample input dataset, predict on a large set of datapoints For the predictions given on the datapoints, a subject-matter expert (SME) evaluates ‘validity’ of predictions Recursively, new ‘corrected’ samples are added as training data to the ML model The ML model consistently learns/retrains, and makes predictions until the SME is satisfied by the quality of predictions For Active Labelling to work, there are expectations involved for an SME: when we expect a human expert to ‘validate’ an output sample, the expert understands what the task is a human expert will use judgement to evaluate ‘what else’ definitely belongs to a label L when deciding if a new sample should belong to L Given these expectations and intuitions, we can ‘mimic’ these using an LLM: give the LLM an ‘understanding’ of what each label means. This can be done by using a larger model to critically evaluate the relationship between {label: data mapped to label} for all labels. In our experiments, this was done using a 32B variant of DeepSeek that was self-hosted. Giving an LLM the capability to understand ‘why, what, and how’ Instead of predicting what is the correct label, leverage the LLM to identify if a prediction is ‘valid’ or ‘invalid’ only (i.e., LLM only has to answer a binary query). Reinforce the idea of what other valid samples for the label look like, i.e., for every pre-emptively predicted label for a sample, dynamically source c closest samples in its training (guaranteed valid) set when prompting for validation. The result? A cost-effective framework that relies on a fast, cheap classifier to make pre-emptive classifications, and an LLM that verifies these using (meaning of the label + dynamically sourced training samples that are similar to the current classification): import math def calculate_uncertainty(clf, sample): predicted_probabilities = clf.predict_proba(sample.reshape(1, -1))[0] # Reshape sample for predict_proba uncertainty = -sum(p * math.log(p, 2) for p in predicted_probabilities) return uncertainty def select_informative_samples(clf, data, k): informative_samples = [] uncertainties = [calculate_uncertainty(clf, sample) for sample in data] # Sort data by descending order of uncertainty sorted_data = sorted(zip(data, uncertainties), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) # Get top k samples with highest uncertainty for sample, uncertainty in sorted_data[:k]: informative_samples.append(sample) return informative_samples def proxy_label(clf, llm_judge, k, testing_data): #llm_judge – any LLM with a system prompt tuned for verifying if a sample belongs to a class. Expected output is a bool : True or False. True verifies the original classification, False refutes it predicted_classes = clf.predict(testing_data) # Select k most informative samples using uncertainty sampling informative_samples = select_informative_samples(clf, testing_data, k) # List to store correct samples voted_data = [] # Evaluate informative samples with the LLM judge for sample in informative_samples: sample_index = testing_data.tolist().index(sample.tolist()) # changed from testing_data.index(sample) because of numpy array type issue predicted_class = predicted_classes[sample_index] # Check if LLM judge agrees with the prediction if llm_judge(sample, predicted_class): # If correct, add the sample to voted data voted_data.append(sample) # Return the list of correct samples with proxy labels return voted_data By feeding the valid samples (voted_data) to our classifier under controlled parameters, we achieve the ‘recursive’ part of our algorithm: Recursive Expert Delegation: R.E.D. By doing this, we were able to achieve close-to-human-expert validation numbers on controlled multi-class datasets. Experimentally, R.E.D. scales up to 1,000 classes while maintaining a competent degree of accuracy almost on par with human experts (90%+ agreement). I believe this is a significant achievement in applied ML, and has real-world uses for production-grade expectations of cost, speed, scale, and adaptability. The technical report, publishing later this year, highlights relevant code samples as well as experimental setups used to achieve given results. All images, unless otherwise noted, are by the author Interested in more details? Reach out to me over Medium or email for a chat!

With the new age of problem-solving augmented by Large Language Models (LLMs), only a handful of problems remain that have subpar solutions. Most classification problems (at a PoC level) can be solved by leveraging LLMs at 70–90% Precision/F1 with just good prompt engineering techniques, as well as adaptive in-context-learning (ICL) examples.

What happens when you want to consistently achieve performance higher than that — when prompt engineering no longer suffices?

The classification conundrum

Text classification is one of the oldest and most well-understood examples of supervised learning. Given this premise, it should really not be hard to build robust, well-performing classifiers that handle a large number of input classes, right…?

Welp. It is.

It actually has to do a lot more with the ‘constraints’ that the algorithm is generally expected to work under:

  • low amount of training data per class
  • high classification accuracy (that plummets as you add more classes)
  • possible addition of new classes to an existing subset of classes
  • quick training/inference
  • cost-effectiveness
  • (potentially) really large number of training classes
  • (potentially) endless required retraining of some classes due to data drift, etc.

Ever tried building a classifier beyond a few dozen classes under these conditions? (I mean, even GPT could probably do a great job up to ~30 text classes with just a few samples…)

Considering you take the GPT route — If you have more than a couple dozen classes or a sizeable amount of data to be classified, you are gonna have to reach deep into your pockets with the system prompt, user prompt, few shot example tokens that you will need to classify one sample. That is after making peace with the throughput of the API, even if you are running async queries.

In applied ML, problems like these are generally tricky to solve since they don’t fully satisfy the requirements of supervised learning or aren’t cheap/fast enough to be run via an LLM. This particular pain point is what the R.E.D algorithm addresses: semi-supervised learning, when the training data per class is not enough to build (quasi)traditional classifiers.

The R.E.D. algorithm

R.E.D: Recursive Expert Delegation is a novel framework that changes how we approach text classification. This is an applied ML paradigm — i.e., there is no fundamentally different architecture to what exists, but its a highlight reel of ideas that work best to build something that is practical and scalable.

In this post, we will be working through a specific example where we have a large number of text classes (100–1000), each class only has few samples (30–100), and there are a non-trivial number of samples to classify (10,000–100,000). We approach this as a semi-supervised learning problem via R.E.D.

Let’s dive in.

How it works

simple representation of what R.E.D. does

Instead of having a single classifier classify between a large number of classes, R.E.D. intelligently:

  1. Divides and conquers — Break the label space (large number of input labels) into multiple subsets of labels. This is a greedy label subset formation approach.
  2. Learns efficiently — Trains specialized classifiers for each subset. This step focuses on building a classifier that oversamples on noise, where noise is intelligently modeled as data from other subsets.
  3. Delegates to an expert — Employes LLMs as expert oracles for specific label validation and correction only, similar to having a team of domain experts. Using an LLM as a proxy, it empirically ‘mimics’ how a human expert validates an output.
  4. Recursive retraining — Continuously retrains with fresh samples added back from the expert until there are no more samples to be added/a saturation from information gain is achieved

The intuition behind it is not very hard to grasp: Active Learning employs humans as domain experts to consistently ‘correct’ or ‘validate’ the outputs from an ML model, with continuous training. This stops when the model achieves acceptable performance. We intuit and rebrand the same, with a few clever innovations that will be detailed in a research pre-print later.

Let’s take a deeper look…

Greedy subset selection with least similar elements

When the number of input labels (classes) is high, the complexity of learning a linear decision boundary between classes increases. As such, the quality of the classifier deteriorates as the number of classes increases. This is especially true when the classifier does not have enough samples to learn from — i.e. each of the training classes has only a few samples.

This is very reflective of a real-world scenario, and the primary motivation behind the creation of R.E.D.

Some ways of improving a classifier’s performance under these constraints:

  • Restrict the number of classes a classifier needs to classify between
  • Make the decision boundary between classes clearer, i.e., train the classifier on highly dissimilar classes

Greedy Subset Selection does exactly this — since the scope of the problem is Text Classification, we form embeddings of the training labels, reduce their dimensionality via UMAP, then form S subsets from them. Each of the subsets has elements as training labels. We pick training labels greedily, ensuring that every label we pick for the subset is the most dissimilar label w.r.t. the other labels that exist in the subset:

import numpy as np
from sklearn.metrics.pairwise import cosine_similarity


def avg_embedding(candidate_embeddings):
    return np.mean(candidate_embeddings, axis=0)

def get_least_similar_embedding(target_embedding, candidate_embeddings):
    similarities = cosine_similarity(target_embedding, candidate_embeddings)
    least_similar_index = np.argmin(similarities)  # Use argmin to find the index of the minimum
    least_similar_element = candidate_embeddings[least_similar_index]
    return least_similar_element


def get_embedding_class(embedding, embedding_map):
    reverse_embedding_map = {value: key for key, value in embedding_map.items()}
    return reverse_embedding_map.get(embedding)  # Use .get() to handle missing keys gracefully


def select_subsets(embeddings, n):
    visited = {cls: False for cls in embeddings.keys()}
    subsets = []
    current_subset = []

    while any(not visited[cls] for cls in visited):
        for cls, average_embedding in embeddings.items():
            if not current_subset:
                current_subset.append(average_embedding)
                visited[cls] = True
            elif len(current_subset) >= n:
                subsets.append(current_subset.copy())
                current_subset = []
            else:
                subset_average = avg_embedding(current_subset)
                remaining_embeddings = [emb for cls_, emb in embeddings.items() if not visited[cls_]]
                if not remaining_embeddings:
                    break # handle edge case
                
                least_similar = get_least_similar_embedding(target_embedding=subset_average, candidate_embeddings=remaining_embeddings)

                visited_class = get_embedding_class(least_similar, embeddings)

                
                if visited_class is not None:
                  visited[visited_class] = True


                current_subset.append(least_similar)
    
    if current_subset:  # Add any remaining elements in current_subset
        subsets.append(current_subset)
        

    return subsets

the result of this greedy subset sampling is all the training labels clearly boxed into subsets, where each subset has at most only classes. This inherently makes the job of a classifier easier, compared to the original classes it would have to classify between otherwise!

Semi-supervised classification with noise oversampling

Cascade this after the initial label subset formation — i.e., this classifier is only classifying between a given subset of classes.

Picture this: when you have low amounts of training data, you absolutely cannot create a hold-out set that is meaningful for evaluation. Should you do it at all? How do you know if your classifier is working well?

We approached this problem slightly differently — we defined the fundamental job of a semi-supervised classifier to be pre-emptive classification of a sample. This means that regardless of what a sample gets classified as it will be ‘verified’ and ‘corrected’ at a later stage: this classifier only needs to identify what needs to be verified.

As such, we created a design for how it would treat its data:

  • n+1 classes, where the last class is noise
  • noise: data from classes that are NOT in the current classifier’s purview. The noise class is oversampled to be 2x the average size of the data for the classifier’s labels

Oversampling on noise is a faux-safety measure, to ensure that adjacent data that belongs to another class is most likely predicted as noise instead of slipping through for verification.

How do you check if this classifier is working well — in our experiments, we define this as the number of ‘uncertain’ samples in a classifier’s prediction. Using uncertainty sampling and information gain principles, we were effectively able to gauge if a classifier is ‘learning’ or not, which acts as a pointer towards classification performance. This classifier is consistently retrained unless there is an inflection point in the number of uncertain samples predicted, or there is only a delta of information being added iteratively by new samples.

Proxy active learning via an LLM agent

This is the heart of the approach — using an LLM as a proxy for a human validator. The human validator approach we are talking about is Active Labelling

Let’s get an intuitive understanding of Active Labelling:

  • Use an ML model to learn on a sample input dataset, predict on a large set of datapoints
  • For the predictions given on the datapoints, a subject-matter expert (SME) evaluates ‘validity’ of predictions
  • Recursively, new ‘corrected’ samples are added as training data to the ML model
  • The ML model consistently learns/retrains, and makes predictions until the SME is satisfied by the quality of predictions

For Active Labelling to work, there are expectations involved for an SME:

  • when we expect a human expert to ‘validate’ an output sample, the expert understands what the task is
  • a human expert will use judgement to evaluate ‘what else’ definitely belongs to a label L when deciding if a new sample should belong to L

Given these expectations and intuitions, we can ‘mimic’ these using an LLM:

  • give the LLM an ‘understanding’ of what each label means. This can be done by using a larger model to critically evaluate the relationship between {label: data mapped to label} for all labels. In our experiments, this was done using a 32B variant of DeepSeek that was self-hosted.
Giving an LLM the capability to understand ‘why, what, and how’
  • Instead of predicting what is the correct label, leverage the LLM to identify if a prediction is ‘valid’ or ‘invalid’ only (i.e., LLM only has to answer a binary query).
  • Reinforce the idea of what other valid samples for the label look like, i.e., for every pre-emptively predicted label for a sample, dynamically source c closest samples in its training (guaranteed valid) set when prompting for validation.

The result? A cost-effective framework that relies on a fast, cheap classifier to make pre-emptive classifications, and an LLM that verifies these using (meaning of the label + dynamically sourced training samples that are similar to the current classification):

import math

def calculate_uncertainty(clf, sample):
    predicted_probabilities = clf.predict_proba(sample.reshape(1, -1))[0]  # Reshape sample for predict_proba
    uncertainty = -sum(p * math.log(p, 2) for p in predicted_probabilities)
    return uncertainty


def select_informative_samples(clf, data, k):
    informative_samples = []
    uncertainties = [calculate_uncertainty(clf, sample) for sample in data]

    # Sort data by descending order of uncertainty
    sorted_data = sorted(zip(data, uncertainties), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)

    # Get top k samples with highest uncertainty
    for sample, uncertainty in sorted_data[:k]:
        informative_samples.append(sample)

    return informative_samples


def proxy_label(clf, llm_judge, k, testing_data):
    #llm_judge - any LLM with a system prompt tuned for verifying if a sample belongs to a class. Expected output is a bool : True or False. True verifies the original classification, False refutes it
    predicted_classes = clf.predict(testing_data)

    # Select k most informative samples using uncertainty sampling
    informative_samples = select_informative_samples(clf, testing_data, k)

    # List to store correct samples
    voted_data = []

    # Evaluate informative samples with the LLM judge
    for sample in informative_samples:
        sample_index = testing_data.tolist().index(sample.tolist()) # changed from testing_data.index(sample) because of numpy array type issue
        predicted_class = predicted_classes[sample_index]

        # Check if LLM judge agrees with the prediction
        if llm_judge(sample, predicted_class):
            # If correct, add the sample to voted data
            voted_data.append(sample)

    # Return the list of correct samples with proxy labels
    return voted_data

By feeding the valid samples (voted_data) to our classifier under controlled parameters, we achieve the ‘recursive’ part of our algorithm:

Recursive Expert Delegation: R.E.D.

By doing this, we were able to achieve close-to-human-expert validation numbers on controlled multi-class datasets. Experimentally, R.E.D. scales up to 1,000 classes while maintaining a competent degree of accuracy almost on par with human experts (90%+ agreement).

I believe this is a significant achievement in applied ML, and has real-world uses for production-grade expectations of cost, speed, scale, and adaptability. The technical report, publishing later this year, highlights relevant code samples as well as experimental setups used to achieve given results.

All images, unless otherwise noted, are by the author

Interested in more details? Reach out to me over Medium or email for a chat!

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Var Energi Raises Estimates for New Barents Sea Oil Discovery

An appraisal well has confirmed Vår Energi ASA’ Zagato oil discovery in the Goliat area on Norway’s side of the North Sea, with preliminary estimated recoverable resources of 21-25 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe), the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) said. That is equivalent to 3.3-11.9 million standard cubic meters of oil equivalent (MMscmoe), up from the previous estimate of 2.8-10.1 MMscmoe before appraisal well 7122/8-3 A was drilled, the upstream regulator said in a press release. The latest target represents the 14th exploration well drilled in production license 229, awarded under the Barents Sea Project in 1997, the NOD noted. Var Energi said separately, “The latest well tested two intervals with each showing maximum flow rates of more than 4,000 barrels of oil per day, confirming reservoir quality”. “The production tests confirmed good quality reservoirs and oil quality similar to the Goliat field”, Vår Energi said. Goliat, discovered 2000, started producing 2016 and expanded with the startup of the Snadd and Goliat West accumulations in 2017 and 2021 respectively, according to field information on government website Norskpetroleum.no. Operator Vår Energi (65 percent) and partner Equinor ASA (35 percent) have now drilled five wells in the Goliat Ridge, Vår Energi noted. “Including the latest well, the Goliat Ridge is estimated to contain gross discovered recoverable resources of 35-138 MMboe, and with additional prospective resources taking the total gross potential to over 200 MMboe”, it said. “A tie-back to the nearby Goliat FPSO [floating production, storage and offloading vessel] is being planned, targeting first production in 2019. “Vår Energi was recently awarded an adjacent license to the Goliat field in the 2025 Awards in Predefined Areas, which offers additional prospectivity on trend with the Goliat Ridge discovery”. Norskpetroleum.no says plans for Goliat include a connection to the Equinor-operated gas liquefaction facility on Melkøya island.   “The recent discoveries reinforce Vår Energi’s position as a leading exploration company on the Norwegian continental shelf and continue to strengthen our ability to sustain high-value production of

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Where Will the WTI Oil Price Land in 2026 and 2027?

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO) which was published on January 13, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price average will drop in 2026 and 2027. The EIA projected in this STEO that the WTI spot price will come in at $52.21 per barrel this year and $50.36 per barrel next year. The commodity averaged $65.40 per barrel in 2025, the EIA’s January STEO showed. A quarterly breakdown included in the outlook forecast that the WTI spot price will come in at $54.93 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $52.67 per barrel in the second quarter, $52.03 per barrel in the third quarter, $49.34 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $49.00 per barrel in the first quarter of 2027, $50.66 per barrel in the second quarter, $50.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $51.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in December, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $65.32 per barrel in 2025 and $51.42 per barrel in 2026. That STEO did not offer an average WTI spot price forecast for 2027. The EIA’s November STEO saw the WTI spot price averaging $65.15 per barrel in 2025 and $51.26 per barrel in 2026. A chart hosted on the EIA’s website, which was last updated on January 14 and displayed the annual average Cushing, OK, WTI spot price, on a free on board basis, from 1986 to 2025, showed that this commodity hit a peak in 2008, at $99.67 per barrel. The commodity saw its lowest price, between 1986 and 2025, in 1986, at $15.05 per barrel, the chart highlighted. The highest price the commodity has seen this decade came in 2022, at $94.90 per barrel,

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Leviathan Partners Approve Expansion Project

Chevron Corp and its local partners have agreed on a $2.36-billion final investment decision (FID) for stage 1 of a project to raise production in the Leviathan natural gas and condensate field offshore Israel. Expected to start operation in the second half of 2029, the first stage of Phase 1B aims to increase capacity to about 21 billion cubic meters (741.61 billion cubic feet) a year, consortium member NewMed Energy LP said in a stock filing on Friday. On August 21, 2025, it said the Energy and Infrastructures Ministry had approved Phase 1B. Leviathan, discovered 2010 off the coast of Haifa city, went onstream December 2019 under Phase 1A, which has a capacity of about 12 Bcm per annum, according to NewMed Energy. Chevron upstream president Clay Neff said in a separate statement issued online by the United States energy giant, “Chevron is a leading energy player in the Eastern Mediterranean, where we are focused on natural gas production and exports”. “Our decision to invest in the expansion of Leviathan’s production capacity reflects our confidence in the future of energy in the region”, Neff added. Neff claimed, “Pragmatic U.S. and regional energy policies are helping to strengthen energy security across the Eastern Mediterranean and foster an environment that encourages investment in the Middle East and globally”. “This milestone demonstrates our ongoing commitment to partner with the state of Israel to develop natural gas resources and provide essential energy to millions of people in Israel, Egypt and Jordan”, said Jack Baker, Chevron managing director for the Eastern Mediterranean.  NewMed Energy’s regulatory disclosure said, “According to the development plan, Stage One of the Expansion Project includes the drilling and completion of three additional production wells, the addition of supplementary subsea systems and expansion of the processing systems on the platform, with the aim

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Philippines Makes Discovery Near Dwindling Malampaya

The Philippines has discovered a new natural gas source for the first time in over a decade, extending the life of its depleting gas field as the nation seeks to cut its dependence on coal. The discovered reservoir in Malampaya East-1, near the existing Malampaya gas field, is estimated to contain around 98 billion cubic feet of gas, equivalent to almost 14 billion kilowatt hours of electricity per year, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said in a video message on Monday. “This helps Malampaya’s contribution and strengthens our domestic gas supply for many years to come,” Marcos said. Initial testing showed that the well flowed at 60 million cubic feet per day, indicating it has the potential to produce more and confirming it’s a rich resource comparable to the original Malampaya wells, he added. The latest gas find could help the Southeast Asian nation reduce its dependence on coal but it will need to continue importing liquefied natural gas to meet its growing energy needs.  Yet it pales in comparison with the massive gas assets in neighboring Indonesia and Malaysia, which are in the trillions of cubic feet. Malaysia’s state-owned gas company produces 7 billion cubic feet per day, while Indonesia’s oil firm has output at 2.8 billion cubic feet per day. Shares in Philippine energy firms climbed following the announcement. PXP Energy Corp. surged as much as 20.8 percent while Oriental Petroleum rose as much as 8.3 percent and First Gen Corp., which sources gas from Malampaya, jumped by up to 10.2 percent. The discovery could help secure long-term gas supply and eventually benefit companies like First Gen and San Miguel Corp., said Luis Limlingan, head of sales at Regina Capital Development Corp. in Manila. “But any real impact may take time as infrastructure and development need to catch up,” he said. Malampaya has

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NVIDIA’s Rubin Redefines the AI Factory

The Architecture Shift: From “GPU Server” to “Rack-Scale Supercomputer” NVIDIA’s Rubin architecture is built around a single design thesis: “extreme co-design.” In practice, that means GPUs, CPUs, networking, security, software, power delivery, and cooling are architected together; treating the data center as the compute unit, not the individual server. That logic shows up most clearly in the NVL72 system. NVLink 6 serves as the scale-up spine, designed to let 72 GPUs communicate all-to-all with predictable latency, something NVIDIA argues is essential for mixture-of-experts routing and synchronization-heavy inference paths. NVIDIA is not vague about what this requires. Its technical materials describe the Rubin GPU as delivering 50 PFLOPS of NVFP4 inference and 35 PFLOPS of NVFP4 training, with 22 TB/s of HBM4 bandwidth and 3.6 TB/s of NVLink bandwidth per GPU. The point of that bandwidth is not headline-chasing. It is to prevent a rack from behaving like 72 loosely connected accelerators that stall on communication. NVIDIA wants the rack to function as a single engine because that is what it will take to drive down cost per token at scale. The New Idea NVIDIA Is Elevating: Inference Context Memory as Infrastructure If there is one genuinely new concept in the Rubin announcements, it is the elevation of context memory, and the admission that GPU memory alone will not carry the next wave of inference. NVIDIA describes a new tier called NVIDIA Inference Context Memory Storage, powered by BlueField-4, designed to persist and share inference state (such as KV caches) across requests and nodes for long-context and agentic workloads. NVIDIA says this AI-native context tier can boost tokens per second by up to 5× and improve power efficiency by up to 5× compared with traditional storage approaches. The implication is clear: the path to cheaper inference is not just faster GPUs.

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Power shortages, carbon capture, and AI automation: What’s ahead for data centers in 2026

“Despite a broader use of AI tools in enterprises and by consumers, that does not mean that AI compute, AI infrastructure in general, will be more evenly spread out,” said Daniel Bizo, research director at Uptime Institute, during the webinar. “The concentration of AI compute infrastructure is only increasing in the coming years.” For enterprises, the infrastructure investment remains relatively modest, Uptime Institute found. Enterprises will limit investment to inference and only some training, and inference workloads don’t require dramatic capacity increases. “Our prediction, our observation, was that the concentration of AI compute infrastructure is only increasing in the coming years by a couple of points. By the end of this year, 2026, we are projecting that around 10 gigawatts of new IT load will have been added to the global data center world, specifically to run generative AI workloads and adjacent workloads, but definitely centered on generative AI,” Bizo said. “This means these 10 gigawatts or so load, we are talking about anywhere between 13 to 15 million GPUs and accelerators deployed globally. We are anticipating that a majority of these are and will be deployed in supercomputing style.” 2. Developers will not outrun the power shortage The most pressing challenge facing the industry, according to Uptime, is that data centers can be built in less than three years, but power generation takes much longer. “It takes three to six years to deploy a solar or wind farm, around six years for a combined-cycle gas turbine plant, and even optimistically, it probably takes more than 10 years to deploy a conventional nuclear power plant,” said Max Smolaks, research analyst at Uptime Institute. This mismatch was manageable when data centers were smaller and growth was predictable, the report notes. But with projects now measured in tens and sometimes hundreds of

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Google warns transmission delays are now the biggest threat to data center expansion

The delays stem from aging transmission infrastructure unable to handle concentrated power demands. Building regional transmission lines currently takes seven to eleven years just for permitting, Hanna told the gathering. Southwest Power Pool has projected 115 days of potential loss of load if transmission infrastructure isn’t built to match demand growth, he added. These systemic delays are forcing enterprises to reconsider fundamental assumptions about cloud capacity. Regions including Northern Virginia and Santa Clara that were prime locations for hyperscale builds are running out of power capacity. The infrastructure constraints are also reshaping cloud competition around power access rather than technical capabilities. “This is no longer about who gets to market with the most GPU instances,” Gogia said. “It’s about who gets to the grid first.” Co-location emerges as a faster alternative to grid delays Unable to wait years for traditional grid connections, hyperscalers are pursuing co-location arrangements that place data centers directly adjacent to power plants, bypassing the transmission system entirely. Pricing for these arrangements has jumped 20% in power-constrained markets as demand outstrips availability, with costs flowing through to cloud customers via regional pricing differences, Gogia said. Google is exploring such arrangements, though Hanna said the company’s “strong preference is grid-connected load.” “This is a speed to power play for us,” he said, noting Google wants facilities to remain “front of the meter” to serve the broader grid rather than operating as isolated power sources. Other hyperscalers are negotiating directly with utilities, acquiring land near power plants, and exploring ownership stakes in power infrastructure from batteries to small modular nuclear reactors, Hanna said.

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OpenAI turns to Cerebras in a mega deal to scale AI inference infrastructure

Analysts expect AI workloads to grow more varied and more demanding in the coming years, driving the need for architectures tuned for inference performance and putting added pressure on data center networks. “This is prompting hyperscalers to diversify their computing systems, using Nvidia GPUs for general-purpose AI workloads, in-house AI accelerators for highly optimized tasks, and systems such as Cerebras for specialized low-latency workloads,” said Neil Shah, vice president for research at Counterpoint Research. As a result, AI platforms operating at hyperscale are pushing infrastructure providers away from monolithic, general-purpose clusters toward more tiered and heterogeneous infrastructure strategies. “OpenAI’s move toward Cerebras inference capacity reflects a broader shift in how AI data centers are being designed,” said Prabhu Ram, VP of the industry research group at Cybermedia Research. “This move is less about replacing Nvidia and more about diversification as inference scales.” At this level, infrastructure begins to resemble an AI factory, where city-scale power delivery, dense east–west networking, and low-latency interconnects matter more than peak FLOPS, Ram added. “At this magnitude, conventional rack density, cooling models, and hierarchical networks become impractical,” said Manish Rawat, semiconductor analyst at TechInsights. “Inference workloads generate continuous, latency-sensitive traffic rather than episodic training bursts, pushing architectures toward flatter network topologies, higher-radix switching, and tighter integration of compute, memory, and interconnect.”

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Cisco’s 2026 agenda prioritizes AI-ready infrastructure, connectivity

While most of the demand for AI data center capacity today comes from hyperscalers and neocloud providers, that will change as enterprise customers delve more into the AI networking world. “The other ecosystem members and enterprises themselves are becoming responsible for an increasing proportion of the AI infrastructure buildout as inferencing and agentic AI, sovereign cloud, and edge AI become more mainstream,” Katz wrote. More enterprises will move to host AI on premises via the introduction of AI agents that are designed to inject intelligent insight into applications and help improve operations. That’s where the AI impact on enterprise network traffic will appear, suggests Nolle. “Enterprises need to host AI to create AI network impact. Just accessing it doesn’t do much to traffic. Having cloud agents access local data center resources (RAG etc.) creates a governance issue for most corporate data, so that won’t go too far either,” Nolle said.  “Enterprises are looking at AI agents, not the way hyperscalers tout agentic AI, but agents running on small models, often open-source, and are locally hosted. This is where real AI traffic will develop, and Cisco could be vulnerable if they don’t understand this point and at least raise it in dialogs where AI hosting comes up,” Nolle said. “I don’t expect they’d go too far, because the real market for enterprise AI networking is probably a couple years out.” Meanwhile, observers expect Cisco to continue bolstering AI networking capabilities for enterprise branch, campus and data centers as well as hyperscalers, including through optical support and other gear.

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Microsoft tells communities it will ‘pay its way’ as AI data center resource usage sparks backlash

It will work with utilities and public commissions to set the rates it pays high enough to cover data center electricity costs (including build-outs, additions, and active use). “Our goal is straightforward: To ensure that the electricity cost of serving our data centers is not passed on to residential customers,” Smith emphasized. For example, the company is supporting a new rate structure Wisconsin that would charge a class of “very large customers,” including data centers, the true cost of the electricity required to serve them. It will collaborate “early, closely, and transparently” with local utilities to add electricity and supporting infrastructure to existing grids when needed. For instance, Microsoft has contracted with the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) to add 7.9GW of new electricity generation to the grid, “more than double our current consumption,” Smith noted. It will pursue ways to make data centers more efficient. For example, it is already experimenting with AI to improve planning, extract more electricity from existing infrastructure, improve system resilience, and speed development of new infrastructure and technologies (like nuclear energy). It will advocate for state and national public policies that ensure electricity access that is affordable, reliable, and sustainable in neighboring communities. Microsoft previously established priorities for electricity policy advocacy, Smith noted, but “progress has been uneven. This needs to change.” Microsoft is similarly committed when it comes to data center water use, promising four actions: Reducing the overall amount of water its data centers use, initially improving it by 40% by 2030. The company is exploring innovations in cooling, including closed-loop systems that recirculate cooling liquids. It will collaborate with local utilities to map out water, wastewater, and pressure needs, and will “fully fund” infrastructure required for growth. For instance, in Quincy, Washington, Microsoft helped construct a water reuse utility that recirculates

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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