Russia’s crude oil output last month was well below its OPEC+ quota, as the country struggled to find buyers for its sanctioned barrels and Ukrainian drone attacks hampered refineries. An average 9.43 million barrels a day were pumped in November, according to people with knowledge of the data, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. While that was 19,000 barrels a day above the October level, it lagged the nation’s November target by more than 100,000 barrels a day, Bloomberg calculations show. That’s also the most that Russia’s actual reported production has lagged its monthly OPEC+ quota, including compensation cuts, in over two years. It’s another sign that Moscow faces a challenge in offloading its oil, a key source of revenue that the Kremlin uses to fund its war with Ukraine. Russia had historically been one of the biggest laggards in complying with OPEC+ output agreements, pumping above the targets, and even had to make additional cuts to compensate for overproduction. The final cuts were made in October, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. US sanctions that hit oil giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC have in recent weeks reduced appetite for Russian barrels in key buyer India. Still, traders and refiners have said that volumes could rebound as unsanctioned suppliers and new trading intermediaries appear. The difficulty in finding buyers has led to the amount of Russian oil on water growing. In addition to vessels idling for long periods, some are taking longer voyages. Drone Attacks Meanwhile, Ukraine carried out record attacks on Russian refineries last month, pressuring crude-processing volumes as refinery owners rushed to repair infrastructure. The two sides are fighting an increasingly intense energy war as they attempt to gain a meaningful advantage as peace efforts drag on. The Energy Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on

Oil declined for a second day, dragged lower by weakness in refined products as traders await data expected to shed light on the extent of crude surpluses. West Texas Intermediate dipped 1.1% to settle near $58 a barrel, pressured by routs in diesel, gasoline and other products. The difference between the price of US gasoline and crude oil, known as a crack spread, fell to the weakest since February, while a comparable gauge for diesel also slid. Refined products had been one of few tailwinds for crude this year, and the recent demand-driven weakness is exacerbating a sense of bearish gloom ahead of a widely telegraphed glut. Some trend-following commodity trading advisers were selling positions in the products, according to data from Bridgeton Research Group. Such market participants can intensify price momentum. Traders are looking ahead to a slew of reports from the International Energy Agency and OPEC set to be published this week, as well as a Wednesday decision on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. US crude output is expected to hit a record 13.61 million barrels a day this year, according to the Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday, adding to short-term oversupply concerns. The IEA has predicted a record oil surplus next year, and the volume of crude crossing oceans is rising. Fuel prices have softened in recent days, removing one factor that had supported crude during the past few weeks. Still, the US oil benchmark remains in the tight $4-a-barrel range it has traded in since the start of November. “Eventually, the current huge blob of oil at sea will move onshore where the sensation of rising crude oil stocks will be more tangible,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “The only reason why Brent crude hasn’t fallen faster and

Morocco is getting closer to creating an almost $1 billion liquefied natural gas hub at a new deep-sea port on its Mediterranean coast, as it plans to boost imports to curb the use of dirtier fuels. The nation this week issued a tender for a company to supply a floating storage and regasification unit that will be moored at the Nador West Med port that’s due to start operating next year. It’s also looking to pick firms to build, finance and operate new pipelines connecting the port to major industrial areas.  Morocco aims to become a player in LNG imports, with the government planning to spend $3.5 billion to boost gas consumption from 1.2 billion cubic meters to 12 billion cubic meters by 2030. The new projects will help counter the loss of Algerian supplies in 2021 following a diplomatic dispute, while gas is an important bridge fuel for manufacturing industries that export goods to Europe. The Ministry of Energy Transition and Sustainable Development estimated the FSRU would cost about $273 million, while the new pipelines would require investments of $681 million. The pipelines will be connected to the Maghreb-Europe link, through which Morocco imports gas from Europe, as the projects will also form the backbone of a gas network that may one day carry green hydrogen both home and abroad. The country’s gas plans involve spending $1.5 billion on infrastructure to import LNG to replace dirtier feedstocks such as fuel oil and coal in the industrial sector, and investing $2 billion to construct gas-fired plants that would triple the amount of power generated by gas. Morocco plans to decarbonize its economy by 2050 — phasing out coal along the way — including by expanding in solar and wind generation as well as battery-storage facilities. Authorities expect about $11 billion in investment to add

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OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) agreed on Sunday, Nov. 30, to keep oil production policy unchanged into early 2026 while approving a new capacity-based quota system that will reshape how the group allocates output from 2027 onward. Meeting virtually, the eight participating OPEC+ members—Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—reaffirmed their Nov. 2 decision to maintain current production levels through first-quarter 2026. They will continue meeting monthly to track adherence and discuss any need for additional action, with the next gathering set for Jan. 4, 2026. Since April 2025, the OPEC+ group has introduced about 2.9 million b/d into the market, while continuing to restrict around 3.24 million b/d of supply, which accounts for roughly 3% of global demand. The meeting took place amid renewed US efforts to negotiate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. A successful deal could potentially increase global oil supply if sanctions on Russia are lifted. In parallel, the broader OPEC+ ministerial meeting confirmed group-wide 2026 quotas previously agreed earlier this year, signaling that no fresh changes in baseline targets are planned before the end of next year unless market conditions deteriorate sharply. New Maximum Sustainable Capacity audits Beyond near-term policy, the most consequential move from the Nov. 30 meetings was approval of a new quota framework based on audited Maximum Sustainable Production Capacity (MSC), which will be used to set production baselines starting in 2027. Under the mechanism, OPEC+ will commission third-party audits of most its members’ sustainable production capacity between January and September 2026. A US consultancy, DeGolyer and MacNaughton, will assess most producers, while separate arrangements will be used for Russia and Venezuela and domestic figures for Iran because of sanctions and data-sharing constraints. MSC is defined as the level of output a country can sustain for a

US crude oil inventories for the week ended Nov. 28, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased by 600,000 bbl from the previous week, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. At 427.5 million bbl, US crude oil inventories are about 3% below the 5-year average for this time of year, the EIA report indicated. EIA said total motor gasoline inventories increased by 4.5 million bbl from last week and are about 2% below the 5-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories both increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.1 million bbl last week and are about 7% below the 5-year average for this time of year. Propane-propylene inventories decreased by 700,000 bbl from last week and are about 15% above the 5-year average for this time of year, EIA said. US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million b/d for the week ended Nov. 28, which was 433,000 b/d more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.1% of capacity. Gasoline production increased, averaging 9.8 million b/d. Distillate fuel production increased by 53,000 b/d, averaging 5.1 million b/d. US crude oil imports averaged 6.0 million b/d, down 456,000 b/d from the previous week. Over the last 4 weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.9 million b/d, 14.4% less than the same 4-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports averaged 772,000 b/d. Distillate fuel imports averaged 190,000 b/d.