Oil jumped to the highest in almost five months as President Donald Trump fueled speculation that the US is on the verge of joining Israel’s attack on Iran, keeping the market on edge about potential crude supply disruptions in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate rallied 4.3% to settle near $75 a barrel, the highest closing price since January. Prices swung between gains and losses early in the session, with uncertainty driving a gauge of crude market volatility to three-year highs. Trump was meeting with his national security team in Washington on Tuesday to discuss the escalating Middle East conflict, according to people familiar with the matter. Before gathering his advisers in the White House Situation Room, Trump posted a demand for Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” in a social media post and warned of a possible strike against the country’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Earlier, Trump played down the prospect of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran and said he wants “a real end” to the conflict. So far, Iran’s crude-exporting infrastructure has been spared, and most of the fallout has been confined to shipping. The market remains focused on any sign that Tehran may seek to disrupt crude flows across the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s daily output passes. Elevated options trading indicates that “investors are still positioning for potential price spikes this month as tensions persist,”  said Razan Hilal, market analyst at Forex.com. An incident in which two oil tankers collided near the waterway was a reminder of the risks to energy flows in the region. Navigation signals in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are facing increasing interference that’s affecting positional reporting, according to the UK Navy, and some shipowners are reluctant to accept bookings in the region, citing safety

China’s oil demand will stop growing earlier than expected, reinforcing the outlook for a global peak and prolonged supply surplus this decade, the International Energy Agency said. The IEA slashed forecasts for Chinese consumption until 2030 by about 1 million barrels a day amid “extraordinary” domestic sales of electric vehicles. It predicts the nation’s demand – which has dominated world growth this century – will top out in 2027, and worldwide oil use two years after that. While the Israel-Iran conflict has stirred concern over immediate energy stockpiles, “oil markets look set to be well-supplied in the years ahead,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. The agency was created in the 1970s to advise major consumers on energy policy. Crude prices surged the most in three years Friday as Israel launched airstrikes on OPEC member Iran, though the gains have since cooled as oil exports remain unaffected. US futures traded near $70 per barrel Monday, down 19% from last year’s peak, amid expectations of an impending surplus.  China’s oil use will reach a maximum 16.9 million barrels a day by 2027, peaking roughly two years earlier than previously forecast, according to the IEA’s report. Besides the ascent of EVs, high-speed rail and trucks powered with natural gas will help displace crude oil. China National Petroleum Corp., the country’s largest energy producer, predicted in December that peak demand may arrive as early as this year. The IEA projects that global oil demand growth will slow to a “trickle” the next few years, with consumption at a maximum of 105.5 million barrels a day in 2029 – roughly in line with last year’s forecast. It would then decline slightly the following year. With China fading, the anticipated worldwide demand growth – amounting to about 2.5 million barrels a day total by 2030 – will largely come from

Dive Brief: Power generators and large customers should embrace flexibility as rising power demand increases the risk of load-shedding events — interruptions in the delivery of electricity — during the spring and fall, Aurora Energy Research said in a June 6 report. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas could see shoulder-season load-shedding events by 2030, according to a model based on past thermal generator outage conditions, the report says. It will have a ramping requirement of at least 10 GW for 16% of hours by 2035, underscoring the need for a fleet of flexible resources to respond to sudden demand swings, it says.  Batteries and gas peaking plants provide crucial flexibility on the generation side, while flexibility from data centers and other large loads could prevent load-shedding and avoid 10 GW of new generation capacity by 2030, Aurora said. Dive Insight: Aurora’s modeling in ERCOT, the PJM Interconnection and other ISOs shows that the historically uneventful shoulder seasons increasingly present reliability concerns for grid operators due to aging infrastructure and ever-more-volatile weather conditions. A May 25 load-shed event that affected nearly 100,000 customers in New Orleans highlights the risk, Aurora said.  Two Louisiana nuclear power plants with more than 2 GW of combined capacity were offline during the event, one unexpectedly due to a cooling system issue. At the same time, a critical 500-kV transmission line serving New Orleans was out of service because it had been damaged in an early March tornado. Other lines in the area overloaded as demand spiked amid unseasonably hot weather.  About 70% of the 6.3 GW of outages contributing to the event were unplanned; flexible resources like batteries could have addressed some of the shortfall, representatives for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator told the New Orleans City Council on June 3. Existing capacity accreditation

Dive Brief: Meta announced a deal with geothermal energy producer XGS Energy Thursday that will provide the tech and social media giant with carbon-free power to support its New Mexico data center operations In exchange, Meta will support XGS’s development of 150 MW of next-generation geothermal energy production capacity in the state, according to the June 12 release. New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham reportedly said the new plant will result in a $1 billion private sector investment, in addition to creating 3,000 construction jobs and 100 plant operation jobs. The deal adds to the growing corporate demand for geothermal energy, which provides carbon-free power generation without weather dependence. Meta previously signed its first geothermal agreement with Sage Geosystems last year for power generation east of the Rocky Mountains. Dive Insight: XGS’s new geothermal plant will be built in two phases and is unique, as the company uses proprietary geothermal power production technology that works with zero operational water use, according to the release. The project’s completion will include an initial smaller phase of construction and a later, larger phase, with both expected to be completed and operational by 2030, the companies said.  On its own, this XGS project is expected to increase the total geothermal production in New Mexico by “a factor of 10,” according to the release. Meta Global Head of Energy Urvi Parekh said the social media giant is “excited” to work with XGS “to unlock a new category of energy supply” for its New Mexico operations. “Advances in AI require continued energy to support infrastructure development,” Parekh said in Thursday’s release. “With next-generation geothermal technologies like XGS ready for scale, geothermal can be a major player in supporting the advancement of technologies like AI as well as domestic data center development.” For Meta, it is the

NRG Energy and LS Power on Thursday asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to approve a $12 billion deal under which NRG would buy about 13 GW in gas-fired generation and CPower, a company with 6 GW in demand-response resources, from LS Power. If completed, the transaction will increase NRG’s market share in the New York Independent System Operator and PJM Interconnection footprints, and in certain submarkets in NYISO and PJM, but not enough to give NRG the ability to exert market power, the companies said in an application at FERC. Under the deal, NRG’s capacity in PJM would jump to 9.5 GW from 2.1 GW and NRG would own 2.2 GW in New York, up from 1.2 GW, according to the application. Related to the deal, LS Power would buy energy, capacity and ancillary services via a power purchase agreement from a 985-MW unit at the Ravenswood Generating Station in Queens, New York, according to the application. The PPA would start at the deal’s closing and continue through April 30, 2029. Under the deal, NRG would also buy 765 MW in ISO New England and 2 GW in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas market. NRG and LS Power asked FERC to approve the transaction by Oct. 24. They expect to close the deal early next year. The New York State Public Service Commission must sign off on the transaction. Under the deal, which NRG and LS Power announced on May 12, LS Power will acquire about 11% of NRG’s outstanding common stock. However, to prevent LS Power and its affiliates from controlling more than 10% of NRG’s voting shares — a threshold that triggers heightened oversight by FERC — NRG will deliver any share that exceeds the 10% threshold to an independent trustee, according to the application. The transaction

Dean Granoff is founder and principal of the Climate Technology Group. As the U.S. Senate works to craft a budget deal, it faces a defining choice: Will American industry seize the economic rewards of a modern energy system, or allow our competitors to take the lead? The version of the “Big Beautiful Bill” passed by the House stripped away incentives that support modern clean energy infrastructure and innovation, security and competitiveness, downing the very tools that put the United States on track for global energy leadership.  But U.S. senators and their constituents are pushing back, saying that undoing the incentives would raise electricity prices and cut jobs.  As a group of four GOP senators wrote to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, “A wholesale repeal, or termination of certain individual credits, would create uncertainty, jeopardizing capital allocation, long-term project planning, and job creation in the energy sector and across our broader economy.” Now, 13 House Republicans are urging the Senate to restore the incentives, and there is a chance they could get their way. This is not about ideology.  Wherever you are on the political spectrum, clean energy competitiveness is about “economic prosperity, a healthier planet and true national security,” according to Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah). Globally over $2 trillion was invested in clean energy technologies and infrastructure last year — double the amount spent on fossil-based infrastructure. The U.S. must not abandon its position in this ascendent sector. Markets are moving decisively towards modern clean energy systems because technologies like solar, wind, and batteries are generally cheaper and faster to install than their legacy competitors. A broad array of related new technologies is following close behind.  This isn’t a fluke; it’s basic economics. Clean energy systems generate, store and deliver power without fuel, so that once the infrastructure is in