
Grid infrastructure has been in the spotlight for years, even before the AI-driven data center boom we’ve had headlines of long interconnection queues for both demand and generation. Now it is a mainstream (and bipartisan) issue as politicians grapple with the need to serve a growing electricity demand without landing consumers with even higher bills. International competitiveness depends on the power sector being able to create capacity, fast. A new paradigm for grid operators emerges given the flat electricity demand the United States has experienced in recent decades.
Expanding grid capacity, across both generation and network infrastructure, is required throughout the system. However, the greatest opportunity lies at the lowest rung: the low-voltage distribution network. According to research by Capgemini, global average utilization of transmission networks sits around 40 to 50%, while distribution networks operate at under 10%. This is because the lower down the network, the less actively it has been managed. A mass deployment of resources at the grid edge has outsized potential to unlock latent capacity and cascade benefits right through the network.
A more traditional approach of just building more physical network capacity (e.g. transformers and cables) at the distribution level would continue the trend of rising bills and take far longer to mobilize. In a capacity constrained paradigm, we should look to maximize the potential of every interconnection point. If lithium ion continues its track record of cost declines, the business case pencils just about anywhere the install can be done efficiently. In this paradigm, any time PV deployed without battery is a great missed opportunity.
One of the biggest barriers to this model is red tape. At the residential level, permitting and export approval for solar and battery installations can take many months. As a result, permissionless hardware is gaining traction, for example, over balcony solar systems that can be plugged into mains supply, with over one million deployed in Germany. Or we can look to Australia where the approval process typically takes a single day. This element alone greatly explains why around 40% of homes are now fitted with solar panels and the battery install rate has jumped six times in the last year.
To replicate this pace of deployment requires customer innovation. Mass-market adoption comes from simple customer offerings with a comprehensible value proposition. For example, Octopus Energy’s Zero Bills Homes program is scaling globally. It provides homeowners a guaranteed $0 monthly bill for new-build, fully electrified homes by installing solar and intelligent controlled batteries. Homebuilders install the tech during construction, reducing labor costs and removing decision-making from the customer. The cost of any extra solar and battery is rolled into the purchase price of the house, enabling financing of these assets through the mortgage, which is earned back via avoided bills. In ERCOT, further examples of customer-focused innovation are emerging, where retailers bundle rate design, installation, financing and remote asset optimization together.
However, innovative customer offerings don’t just belong in liberalized retail markets. Investor-owned utilities have many strengths to lean on; brand recognition, existing billing relationships, access to capital and intimate knowledge of where in the network flexibility brings most value. To deliver strong uptake, IOUs should align asset programs with rate design to create cohesive customer offers; and ensure simple eligibility requirements. Some socializing of value can also be useful, e.g. retailers largely opt for a consistent customer offer across a service territory, enabling simpler customer messaging, even if the underlying flexibility value does vary by location.
Finally, once distributed assets are deployed, they must be appropriately controlled to unlock network benefits. This is a non-trivial problem requiring optimization across differing system needs. For example, focusing purely on wholesale market signals incentivizes herding all devices at the cheapest few hours in the day, whereas optimizing to the network would spread charging load as much as possible out to make best use of available capacity. Flexibility must be multi-purpose to ensure cost efficiency, and hence advanced control platforms are needed, capable of trading off the value of different grid applications and avoiding creating new issues like secondary peaks.
In short, get things right at the grid edge and the whole economy stands to reap the rewards. This means reducing enrollment friction to the point where EVs and heat pumps arrive in grid programs as default. Solar and storage has the potential to unlock new capacity faster than any alternatives, and cheaper if innovative customer models can scale deployment. IOUs are well placed here and the ones that maximize these tools will attract a new industrial base and increase network efficiency; ultimately delivering cheaper power for all users.





















