
Dive Brief:
- U.S. energy storage installations reached 12.3 GW/37.1 GWh in 2024 despite a 20% year-over-year drop in the fourth quarter, Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association said Wednesday.
- The full-year 2024 and Q1 2025 Energy Storage Monitor projected 15 GW/48 GWh of energy storage deployments in 2025, a 25% increase over 2024, due to strong growth in the utility-scale segment and an expected 47% jump in the residential segment.
- But state and federal policy uncertainty cloud the medium-term outlook for energy storage, resulting in a 27-GW gap between Wood Mackenzie’s five-year “high” and “low” cases, the report said.
Dive Insight:
U.S. energy storage deployments rose 34% from 2023 to 2024, and all three energy storage segments Wood Mackenzie tracks saw double-digit growth. The utility-scale segment grew 32% to 33.7 GWh, while the residential segment jumped 64% to just over 3 GWh and the community-scale, commercial and industrial segment rose 11% to 370 MWh, Wood Mackenzie said.
The residential and CCI segments saw strong growth in Q4 2024, but utility-scale deployments fell 28%, resulting in a decline in total deployments during the quarter. Development delays in late 2024 pushed about 2 GW of projects originally expected for last year into 2025, boosting Wood Mackenzie’s 2025 forecast for utility-scale deployments by 11% from the previous quarter.
Q4 2024 saw a noticeable increase in installations outside California and Texas, the United States’ largest energy storage markets. The two states accounted for 61% of deployments in the fourth quarter, a 30% drop from Q3 2024, as New Mexico (400 MW), Oregon (292 MW), Arizona (185 MW) and North Carolina (115 MW) made meaningful contributions.
In the residential market, the storage attachment rate reached 34% despite slower-than-expected progress to retire California’s backlog of projects under the legacy NEM 2.0 tariff, Wood Mackenzie said. The NEM 3.0 tariff California adopted in late 2022 incentivizes self-consumption rather than grid exports while allowing existing residential solar installations and those that submitted interconnection applications by April 2023 to participate in the legacy program.
Nationally, absent major policy shifts, the storage attachment rate will flatten in 2025 and 2026 before declining in later years as states with net-metering policies favorable to solar-only residential installations, such as Florida, account for a larger share of total distributed solar deployments, Wood Mackenzie said.
Uncertainty around the fate of federal clean energy tax credits and tariff policy complicates the five-year outlook for U.S. energy storage, according to the report.
Wood Mackenzie expects annual storage capacity additions to grow by 22 GW to 13 GW a year on average over the next five years, depending on future tax and trade policy developments.
Wood Mackenzie’s “high case” assumes no change to federal tax credits, no further import tariffs and brisk deployment of renewables firmed with storage, resulting in an extra 10 GW installed over the next five years. Its “low case” assumes a phaseout of tax credits beginning in 2028, higher duties on imports that raise costs for Chinese-made systems, and policies that favor gas-fired power production, resulting in 22% decline in total installs through 2029.
Longer-term changes in state policy could benefit the “high-cost” CCI segment by the 2030s, but are unlikely to affect the segment’s five-year outlook, Wood Mackenzie said.