USA EIA Raises WTI Oil Price Forecast

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USA EIA Raises WTI Oil Price Forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last week. According to that STEO, the EIA sees the WTI spot price averaging $70.68 per barrel this year and $64.97 per barrel next year. […]

According to that STEO, the EIA sees the WTI spot price averaging $70.68 per barrel this year and $64.97 per barrel next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in February, the EIA forecast that the WTI spot price would average $70.62 per barrel in 2025 and $62.46 per barrel in 2026.

In its latest STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price will average $71.25 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $70.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $71.50 per barrel in the third quarter, $69.52 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $67.50 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $65.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $64.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $62.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

The EIA’s previous STEO saw the WTI spot price coming in at $73.62 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $71.00 per barrel in the second quarter, $70.00 per barrel in the third quarter, $68.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $64.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $63.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $61.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $60.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

In a report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on March 12, Macquarie projected that the WTI price will average $64.75 per barrel in 2025 and $58.38 per barrel in 2026.

Macquarie sees the commodity coming in at $70.00 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $62.00 per barrel in the second quarter, $63.50 per barrel across the third and fourth quarters, $58.50 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $56.00 per barrel in the second quarter, $57.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $61.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to the report.

A Standard Chartered Bank report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell on March 11 showed that Standard Chartered expected the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price to average $72 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $70 per barrel in the second quarter, $74 per barrel in the third quarter, $79 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $82 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, and $80 per barrel in the second quarter of next year.

Standard Chartered sees the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price averaging $82 per barrel overall in 2026, $83 per barrel overall in 2027, and $89 per barrel overall in 2028, the report showed.

A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on March 7 revealed that J.P. Morgan expected the WTI Crude price to average $70 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $60 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $59 per barrel in the second quarter, $55 per barrel in the third quarter, and $53 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

The note showed that J.P. Morgan saw the commodity coming in at $69 per barrel overall this year and $57 per barrel overall in 2026.

A BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on March 14 outlined that BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, sees the front-month WTI Crude price averaging $73.00 per barrel in 2025 and $72.00 per barrel in 2026.

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