U.S. gas prices were put through the wringer in 2024.
That’s what a BofA Global Research report sent to Rigzone on Tuesday by the BofA Global Research team stated, highlighting that Henry Hub natural gas prices averaged “just $2.41 per million British thermal units (MMBtu)”. That was “the lowest level since 2020 and second lowest level in at least 25 years”, the report pointed out.
“Loose balances pushed storage to a multi-year high of 678 billion cubic feet (Bcf) above five-year average levels in March, but agile producers and strong power sector demand helped whittle that surplus down to just 154 Bcf by year end,” the report said.
“Tightening storage, the first forecast for significant cold, and news that the Plaquemines terminal will begin shipping LNG cargos in January helped push Henry Hub gas up to $4 per MMBtu by late December,” it added, noting that “since then, weather forecasts have shed HDDs, causing gas to ease lower”.
The BofA Global Research report stated that U.S. output has likely peaked seasonally and predicted that this “should fall back below 104 Bcf per day (Bcfpd) by spring, before regaining its footing into year-end and registering 2.3 Bcfpd of growth year on year”.
“Most year on year growth will come from the Permian (1.9 Bcfpd) due to the ramp up of supply into year-end 2024 as the Matterhorn pipeline allowed supply to rise, and the Northeast (0.5Bcfpd), where the mid-2024 MVP start-up should support higher output this year,” the report added.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last month, U.S. dry natural gas production will average 103.3 Bcfpd in the first quarter of 2025, 104.0 Bcfpd in the second quarter, 103.6 Bcfpd in the third quarter, 103.9 Bcfpd in the fourth quarter, and 103.7 Bcfpd overall in 2025.
The STEO projected that this output will average 103.2 Bcfpd overall in 2024. This production came in at 103.8 Bcfpd overall in 2023, the STEO showed.
The BofA Global Research report also noted that U.S gas balances should tighten in 2025/26, “with storage hitting 1.9 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) at end-March and 3.7 Tcf at end-October”.
“We expect demand growth of 2.5Bcfpd year on year, largely from LNG, to outpace total supply growth of 2.1 Bcfpd,” it added.
The report stated that a shrinking storage surplus should lift gas prices later in 2025-26 but added that weather uncertainty presents two-way risk near term.
A report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell late Tuesday showed that Standard Chartered Bank is forecasting that the NYMEX basis Henry Hub nearby future U.S. natural gas price will average $3.20 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025, $3.50 per MMBtu across the second and third quarters, and $2.80 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter.
In its December STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot price will average $2.95 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025, $2.44 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.02 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $3.40 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, and $2.95 per MMBtu overall in 2025.
“Based on our expectation that the storage surplus to the five-year average will narrow over the winter, we forecast the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot price will increase from an average of just over $2.00 per MMBtu in November to an average of about $3.00 per MMBtu for the rest of the winter heating season,” the EIA noted in that STEO.
The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in November, projected that the Henry Hub spot price would average $2.84 per MMBtu in the first quarter of this year, $2.45 in the second quarter, $3.01 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $3.29 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, and $2.90 per MMBtu overall in 2025.
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