In its most recent Oil Market Monthly Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its projections for oil demand growth for this year, while increasing its expectations for supply growth, indicating a significant supply overhang. IEA highlights that global oil inventories are already surging, particularly oil stored in tankers on water. IEA data shows that global oil demand actually expanded by 750,000 b/d year-on-year (y-o-y) in third-quarter 2025, led by a rebound in petrochemical feedstock use following the tariff-induced slowdown in second-quarter 2025. However, the agency expects oil consumption to stay subdued through the rest of 2025 and in 2026, as weaker macroeconomic conditions and rising transport electrification weigh on demand. Annual demand growth is now projected at around 700,000 b/d for both years, down from 740,000 b/d expected for 2025 in IEA’s September report. This growth is well below the 980,000 b/d pace seen in 2024 and markedly lower than the 1.3 million b/d average during the 2010s. Demand for 2025 and 2026 is now projected to be 103.8 million b/d and 104.5 million b/d, respectively. Total global oil supply increased by 760,000 b/d month-on-month (m-o-m) in September to reach 108 million b/d, driven by a 1 million b/d surge in OPEC+ output, primarily from the Middle East. In this month’s report, IEA forecasts that global oil supply will increase by 3 million b/d to reach 106.1 million b/d in 2025, followed by an additional rise of 2.4 million b/d in 2026. This projection exceeds the September forecast of 2.7 million b/d supply growth for 2025 and 2.1 million b/d growth next year.  Non-OPEC+ producers account for 1.6 million b/d of this year’s growth and 1.2 million b/d next year, led by the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina. OPEC+ output is expected to add 1.4 million b/d in 2025 and

The bp plc-led Shah Deniz consortium has awarded three offshore contracts to advance the Shah Deniz compression (SDC) project in Azerbaijan. The $2.9-billion SDC project was sanctioned earlier this year. The aim is to access and produce low pressure gas reserves in Shah Deniz gas field and maximize resource recovery. In first-half 2025, the field produced around 14 billion cu m of gas and about 16 million bbl of condensate in total from the Shah Deniz Alpha and Shah Deniz Bravo platforms. Production capacty of existing Shah Deniz infrastructure is about 77.2 million cu m/day of gas. The contracts, with a combined value of about $700 million, have been awarded to the Saipem-BOS Shelf joint venture. The scope of work under the contracts includes: Transportation and installation of the entire SDC platform – a new 19,000-tonne platform to be installed in the Caspian Sea. Engineering, procurement, construction, and installation of subsea structures, including about 26 km of new offshore pipelines, to connect the SDC platform with existing Shah Deniz infrastructure. All onshore construction activities will be carried out at Baku Deep Water Jacket Factory, operated by BOS Shelf. Offshore construction and installation will be executed using the Khankendi subsea construction vessel owned by the Shah Deniz consortium, and the Israfil Huseynov pipelay barge owned by the Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Co. (ASCO). Both vessels will be operated by Saipem. Offshore activities are expected to begin with pin pile installation in third-quarter 2026, with completion targeted for 2029. Shah Deniz compression project The SDC project is expected to enable around 50 billion cu m of additional gas and about 25 million bbl of additional condensate production and export from Shah Deniz field, bp said in a project overview on its website. The project involves installation of an electrically-powered unmanned compression platform in 85

Valeura Energy Inc. has entered into a new joint venture to explore for and develop hydrocarbons in the deep rights formations of the Thrace basin of northwest Türkiye. The agreement was entered into through a Valeura subsidiary, together with partner Pinnacle Turkey Inc., with a subsidiary of Transatlantic Petroleum LLC. “Despite our strategic pivot toward the Asia-Pacific region, we have maintained our conviction that the deep gas play we discovered in northwest Türkiye offers significant potential to add value to the company,” said Sean Guest, president and chief executive officer of Valeura, in a release Oct. 15. “Our drilling program from 2017 to 2019 demonstrated that there are multiple tcf of gas in place across Valeura’s lands in a deep tight gas play.  We drilled three wells into this play and tested 12 separate zones – every one of which flowed gas.  It is my hope that with a reinvigorated push to test the play, we will see this evolve into a commercial success,” he continued. Thrace deep gas play, Türkiye Valeura has held various blocks and operated in Türkiye for almost 15 years.  The company continues to hold the deep rights (below 2,500 m or a pressure gradient of 0.6 psi/ft, whichever is shallower) in various exploration licenses and production leases covering a total of 955 sq km (gross) in the Thrace basin, just west of Istanbul.  The current exploration phase for most of the acreage (lands held under exploration license) expires June 27, 2026, but discussions are under way with the government for a 2-year appraisal period extension, the company said.

US crude oil inventories for the week ended Oct. 10, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased by 3.5 million bbl from the previous week, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). While the federal government remains shutdown, the data was released 1 day later than usual due to the EIA’s regular holiday schedule. At 423.8 million bbl, US crude oil inventories are about 4% below the 5-year average for this time of year, the EIA report indicated. EIA said total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 300,000 bbl from last week and are slightly below the 5-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories both decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 4.5 million bbl last week and are about 7% below the 5-year average for this time of year. Propane-propylene inventories increased by 1.9 million bbl from last week and are 11% above the 5-year average for this time of year, EIA said. US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.1 million b/d for the week ended Oct. 10, about 1.2 million b/d less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 85.7% of capacity. Gasoline production decreased, averaging 9.4 million b/d. Distillate fuel production decreased by 577,000 b/d, averaging 4.6 million b/d. US crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million b/d, down 878,000 b/d from the previous week. Over the last 4 weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million b/d, 2.4% less than the same 4-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports averaged 532,000 b/d. Distillate fuel imports averaged 160,000 b/d.

During the first 7 months of 2025, combined demand for direct crude burn, fuel oil, and gasoil declined by nearly 100,000 b/d year on year, most noticeably in the summer months, when electricity demand typically peaks. The reduction came despite a 1.6% rise in cooling degree days (CDDs) and continued demographic pressures, with the working-age population expected to grow by roughly 6% this year. “While the availability of prompt data relating to electricity and natural gas is comparatively limited, the most likely driver of the fall in oil use is rising power output from other sources, especially gas. Increasing natural gas supply and utilization has long been a focus for the Saudi energy sector and the Jafurah project, with production beginning later this year, is expected to significantly boost gas (and NGLs) output during the rest of this decade,” IEA said. IEA expects this to enable a major reduction in oil use for electricity production, in a resumption of the substantial declines achieved during the late 2010s. “While monthly data can be volatile, the figures reported for June and July suggest that this progress may be outpacing the medium-term trajectory included in our Oil 2025 report, which already saw Saudi Arabian oil demand dropping by more than any country by 2030.” August and September temperatures were broadly consistent with recent seasonal norms, and CDDs were essentially flat year on year. In recent years, use of power plant input products has been less than half as responsive to underlying cooling requirements than it was during 2010-2016, and ‘base load’ winter deliveries appear to have fallen by more than 100,000 b/d since the pandemic. “Barring an unusually hot October and November, it is likely that total 2025 Saudi oil consumption will drop slightly, despite strong rises in GDP and population. With accelerating

ExxonMobil Guyana Ltd. has let a Phase 2 contract to MODEC Inc. for a floating production storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel for the Hammerhead project. The contract is for a full engineering, procurement, construction, and installation (EPCI) scope of work and follows the Phase One front-end engineering and design (FEED) contract. In April 2025, MODEC received a limited notice to proceed (LNTP) enabling it to commence FPSO design activities to support the earliest possible startup in 2029, subject to required government approvals. Phase One has since been completed and MODEC is advancing Phase Two. The Hammerhead FPSO will have the capacity to produce 150,000 b/d of oil, along with associated gas and water. It will be moored at a water depth of about 1,025 m using a spread mooring system. Hammerhead will be MODEC’s second FPSO for use in Guyana, following Errea Wittu, which is being built for ExxonMobil Guyana’s Uaru project. As with Uaru , MODEC will provide ExxonMobil with operations and maintenance services for the FPSO for 10 years from first oil.