What Should the Long-Run Oil Price Be?

Stay Ahead, Stay ONMINE

What Should the Long-Run Oil Price Be?

What should the long-run price of oil be? That was the question Standard Chartered Bank analysts, including the company’s commodities research head, Paul Horsnell, asked in a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team on Tuesday. The analysts highlighted in the report that, in the early 1990s, “the CEO of a major oil […]

What should the long-run price of oil be?

That was the question Standard Chartered Bank analysts, including the company’s commodities research head, Paul Horsnell, asked in a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team on Tuesday.

The analysts highlighted in the report that, in the early 1990s, “the CEO of a major oil company attracted fierce criticism for his bullishness in suggesting that the long-run price of oil should be $25 per barrel rather than the $18-21 per barrel range that dominated company planning and market thinking”.

“With the benefit of hindsight, the CEO was perhaps a decade too early in his challenge to consensus,” the analysts added, noting that the back end of the Brent curve eventually broke out of the $18-21 per barrel range in the early 2000s before testing higher up to the Global Financial Crisis and then settling into a $90-100 per barrel range for five years.

The analysts stated in the report that the development of U.S. shale oil brought the long-run price back below $60 per barrel and added that, since the post-pandemic recovery, the five-year out price has stayed close to $70 per barrel. It settled at $67.22 per barrel on July 29, the analysts highlighted in the report, pointing out that this was “below its one-year average ($68.06 per barrel), well below its 20-year average ($73.38 per barrel) and, in nominal terms, roughly where it was in 2007”.

“The price has been stuck close to $70 per barrel for several years and while the volume and type of trading along the curve is not what it was 15- 20 years ago, inertia at a low price still sends a powerful negative investment signal,” the analysts noted.

In the report, the Standard Chartered Bank analysts said they think the long-run oil price will adjust higher over the next few years.

“The economics of U.S. shale has changed; higher prices are needed to prevent shale oil output declines becoming precipitous,” they stated.

“Further, an imminent peak in global demand looks less of a tradeable assumption; we think a decreasing number of traders expect back-end prices to be depressed by falling demand at any point soon,” they added.

“More robust demand, weaker shale, higher production costs and lower non-OPEC supply growth in the second half of this decade all suggest to us that the next significant turning point for the long-run price of oil will involve a move back towards $100 per barrel,” the analysts went on to state.

The Standard Chartered Bank analysts also outlined in the report that, in the short term, the front of the curve “also seems to be subject to a magnetic pull” to around $70 per barrel.

“The market for front-month Brent crude appears comfortable trading around $70 per barrel, sandwiched between a range of key moving averages,” the analysts said in the report.

“Prices have moved through the entire $68.49-69.10 per barrel range every day for the past six trading days, with only brief moments of acceleration above or below in reaction to news headlines,” they added.

Standard Chartered sees the ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price averaging $61 per barrel in 2025, $78 per barrel in 2026, and $83 per barrel in 2027, Standard Chartered Bank’s report showed. The company expects the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price to come in at $58 per barrel this year, $75 per barrel next year, and $80 per barrel in 2027, according to the report.

A J.P. Morgan research note sent to Rigzone on Tuesday by Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at the company, showed that J.P. Morgan expects the Brent crude oil price to average $66 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026. In this report, J.P. Morgan projected that the WTI crude oil price will average $62 per barrel this year and $53 per barrel next year.

According to its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on July 8, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) sees the Brent spot price averaging $68.89 per barrel this year and $58.48 per barrel next year. In that STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price will average $65.22 per barrel this year and $54.82 per barrel next year.

To contact the author, email [email protected]

Stay Ahead

Explore More Insights

Stay ahead with more perspectives on cutting-edge power, infrastructure, energy, bitcoin and AI solutions. Explore these articles to uncover strategies and insights shaping the future of industries.

CMA slams Microsoft domination of UK cloud services as anti-competitive

“Microsoft’s licensing practices are adversely impacting the competitiveness of AWS and Google in the supply of cloud services, particularly in competing for customers that purchase cloud services which use the relevant Microsoft software as an input,” said the CMA. Such market power in the hands of Microsoft amounted to vendor

Intel news: networking unit spinoff, earnings uproar, AI snub

It’s a shining example of the old cliche that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. When Paul Otellini took over as CEO in 2005, he had to cut Intel’s wasted effort on communications back then as well. Intel attempted to become a player in

Observe secures $156M funding boost for AI-powered observability

“We’ve always believed that observability is a data problem, and we now live in a world where systems are more complex, data volumes are larger, and—with AI—it’s frictionless for users to ask questions,” Burton wrote. “This is a game of analytics, and the observability vendor who can answer the most

Palo Alto Networks to buy CyberArk for $25B as identity security takes center stage

Will the integration work? “If integration happens effectively, focusing on security posture improvement, ensuring consolidated interfaces, operational optimization, intel event sharing, and proactive identification of threats, it will be a great story,” said Sunil Varkey, advisor at Beagle Security. That’s the optimistic view. But cybersecurity acquisitions have a mixed track

Iberdrola to Exit Mexico

Cox Abg Group SA has agreed to buy Iberdrola SA’s remaining Mexican assets, including over 2.6 gigawatts (GW) of installed generation capacity, for $4.2 billion. The divestment includes 15 operational power plants, consisting of about 1.37 GW combined-cycle and co-generation and around 1.23 GW wind and solar, according to separate statements by the Spanish companies Thursday. “It also includes the largest qualified user supplier in Mexico, with a 25 percent market share and more than 20 tWh distributed across over 500 large clients”, said Seville-based Cox, an integrated energy and water utility. Cox plans to put into operation additional projects initiated by Iberdrola in the Latin American country. “As these projects are completed, the buyer would make payments to Iberdrola in addition to the agreed $4.2 billion”, Iberdrola said. Iberdrola’s workforce of over 800 professionals in Mexico will transfer to Cox, Cox said. In February 2024 Iberdrola said it had sold more than half of its Mexican presence to a trust led by Mexico Infrastructure Partners for approximately $6.2 billion. The sale included 13 mostly gas-fired combined-cycle generation plants with a total installed capacity of about 8.64 GW. Iberdrola said at the time it was retaining a renewables portfolio of over six GW in Mexico. On Thursday, it said the sale of its remaining Mexican operations to Cox “responds to expectations of organic investment of EUR 55 billion in transmission and distribution electricity networks in its subsidiaries in the U.S. (Avangrid Networks), the UK (ScottishPower Energy Networks), Brazil (Neoenergia) and Spain (i-DE), which will almost double its regulated asset base to EUR 90 billion in the coming years”. “This strategy has already led Iberdrola’s British subsidiary, ScottishPower, to acquire the Electricity North West distribution company, which serves the northwest of England, just a year ago for EUR 5 billion”. Iberdrola

Analysts Offer Prediction for Next OPEC+ 8 Meeting

In a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team on Tuesday, analysts at the company, including Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell, offered a prediction for the next OPEC+ 8 meeting, which is currently scheduled to take place on Sunday. “The ‘OPEC+ eight’ (the eight members who agreed additional voluntary output cuts in November 2023) meet on August 3, and we expect a decision to complete the unwind of that tranche of cuts, adding back 548,000 barrels per day to September targets,” the analysts said in the report. “This will effectively pass the torch for decisions at the margin to the ‘OPEC+ nine’ (i.e., the eight plus Gabon) that agreed voluntary cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day in April 2023,” the analysts added. In the report, the Standard Chartered Bank analysts said rolling back the November 2023 tranche of voluntary cuts has improved market transparency and allowed traders to obtain a more realistic picture of spare capacity. They added that they think removing the April 2023 tranche would have a similar effect. “With low inventories, steady demand indications and faltering non-OPEC+ supply growth, we see scope for further accelerated unwinding,” the Standard Chartered Bank analysts noted in the report. “We think a rapid removal of the April 2023 tranche of cuts is possible; we do not expect actual output to increase by as much as nominal increases given existing overproduction and compensation requirements from some members, and capacity constraints in others,” they said. “A drive for compensation for past overproduction remains to the fore. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee met virtually on 28 July to review May and June production data,” they continued. “The communiqué issued after the meeting noted overall conformity among OPEC+ members, with a request for the submission of updated compensation

Petronas Inks MoU with Microsoft to Advance Malaysia’s AI Ecosystem

Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Petronas) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Microsoft to develop an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled economy in Malaysia and help advance energy transition efforts in Asia. “At Petronas, innovation goes beyond technology – it is about shaping a future where energy is smarter, cleaner, and sustainable for not only the organizations involved, but also the nation and its people”, Mohd Yusri, Senior Vice President of Projects, Technology and Health, Safety, Security and Environment (PT and HSSE) at Petronas, said. “By harnessing our joint expertise in innovation and sustainability, we are steadfast in advancing adoption of AI and Cloud capabilities in a manner that promotes sustainable energy practices, in support of Malaysia’s aspirations of building an AI economy with a robust ecosystem in which everyone thrives”, he added. The collaboration aims to develop an ecosystem in Malaysia that empowers organizations to leverage AI for economic growth and social benefits. Focusing on nation-building, these companies will aid Malaysia in establishing regional leadership in AI and cultivating a robust local AI community through joint programs, Petronas said. As part of this MoU, Petronas and Microsoft plan to pursue additional initiatives to enhance AI and energy innovations, utilizing Microsoft’s new Malaysia West cloud region, Petronas said. They will focus on integrating Agentic AI, Microsoft Copilot, data analytics, cloud computing, and cybersecurity, among other technologies, to improve operational efficiency and sustainability throughout Malaysia’s value chain, it said. “As a trusted technology partner to Petronas, we are thrilled to strengthen our collaboration to help advance their digital and AI transformation. With Microsoft’s new cloud region in Malaysia, we are committed to supporting Petronas with secure, scalable, and sustainable cloud solutions that will drive growth and innovation in Malaysia’s energy sector”, Laurence Si, Microsoft Malaysia Managing Director, said. The parties will also

Repsol, NEO Energy Complete UK Merger

NEO Energy Group Ltd. and Repsol Resources UK Ltd. have completed their combination, touting the resulting company as one of the biggest producers on the United Kingdom continental shelf (UKCS). The combined entity, NEO NEXT Energy Ltd., is 55 percent owned by European energy investor HitecVision and 45 percent by Repsol E&P Group. Repsol E&P is 75 percent owned by Spanish integrated energy company Repsol SA and 25 percent owned by the United States’ EIG Global Energy Partners. “This equity split reflects the contributions and strategic alignment of both parties in the creation of a market-leading entity in the UKCS, with a projected 2025 production of approximately 130,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day”, Repsol said in a statement online announcing completion. According to the announcement of the deal in March, Repsol Resources UK owns stakes in 48 producing and non-producing oil and gas fields, while NEO’s portfolio in UK waters includes Penguins, Culzean, Gannet, Shearwater, Britannia Area and Elgin Franklin. NEO NEXT will operate 11 production hubs and “substantial undeveloped reserves”, the companies said March. “This combination creates a jointly governed business which will call upon the key strengths of both shareholders”, Francisco Gea, executive managing director for exploration and production at Repsol, said in comments for the closure of the transaction. “Repsol contributes operational capabilities on production, development and decommissioning activities which will be combined with NEO Energy expertise on financial and commercial matters. “We believe this combined business has many more opportunities for profitable growth in the basin and beyond”. NEO NEXT chief executive John Knight said, “Our strategy can be summarized as ‘Resilience, Yield and Growth’: the combined company has much more scale and diversity and opportunities for cost consolidation and portfolio high-grading, giving resilience despite the tough conditions in the UK”. “The benefits of synergies

India Tells Refiners to Draw Up Plans for Non-Russian Crude

India told its oil refiners to come up with plans for buying non-Russian crude, a scenario that would have far-reaching consequences for the global oil market if it ultimately meant reduced dealings with Moscow. The government has asked state-owned processors to prepare an outline of where alternate barrels can be sourced and at what volume if Russian flows get stopped, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. One of the people said that the instruction amounted to scenario planning in case Russian crude were to become unavailable. The request came after a social-media post on Wednesday by US President Donald Trump threw the Asian nation’s fuel makers into disarray. Trump said in his post that India would face “penalties” because of ongoing purchases of Russian energy that helped to fund the war in Ukraine. India is a critical source of demand for Russian oil and Moscow would have to divert millions of barrels a month to China and other buyers if New Delhi were to halt buying. They’ve helped Russian barrels to keep flowing to the world — largely undisturbed — despite wide-ranging western sanctions. So far the Indian government hasn’t set out its position and people with knowledge of the matter said it’s still evaluating the situation and will continue to do so for several more days. India’s refiners have been racing to buy barrels from elsewhere and there are tentative signs that they might be scaling back Russian cargo purchases. A senior executive at a major Indian oil refiner said the company would try to source more crude from the Middle East and Africa, while still looking to the government for guidance on how to proceed. The situation was not entirely unexpected, but would increase costs and

Oil Dips on Inflation, Geopolitical Jitters

Oil fell as broader markets weakened on worse-than-expected US inflation data and crude traders cashed out after prices reached a six-week high. While West Texas Intermediate slipped 1.1% on Thursday to settle below $70 a barrel, snapping a three day rally, prices are largely still range-bound as traders await clearer signals on balances for supply and demand. “Investors are just being cautious not to overextend the rally until we have more clarity on: one OPEC, two Russia — through the weekend,” as well as the looming Aug. 1 US tariff deadline, said Frank Monkam, head of macro trading at Buffalo Bayou Commodities. US President Donald Trump said he would impose a tariff on India’s exports and a penalty for its energy purchases from Russia from Aug. 1, the latest in a series of comments in which he expressed his anger at the lack of ceasefire in Ukraine. While the market impact of disrupting Indian purchases could be significant, as Moscow would have to find new buyers if it loses one of its largest customers, the relatively muted price movements offer a sign that there’s little expectation Trump will follow through for now. It’s the latest sign of an oil market that increasingly only reacts when there is a meaningful disruption to supply. While Trump has repeatedly threatened steps that might hurt output in producer nations from Venezuela to Iran and Russia since taking office, there’s so far not been a substantial hit to global supply, even when the US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities. India’s refiners are seeking clarity from the government in New Delhi. A senior executive at a major processor said his company would try and source more crude from the Middle East and Africa, while also looking to the government for guidance on how it should proceed. “Finding

Data center survey: AI gains ground but trust concerns persist

Cost issues: 76% Forecasting future data center capacity requirements: 71% Improving energy performance for facilities equipment: 67% Power availability: 63% Supply chain disruptions: 65% A lack of qualified staff: 67% With respect to capacity planning, there’s been a notable increase in the number of operators who describe themselves as “very concerned” about forecasting future data center capacity requirements. Andy Lawrence, Uptime’s executive director of research, said two factors are contributing to this concern: ongoing strong growth for IT demand, and the often-unpredictable demand that AI workloads are creating. “There’s great uncertainty about … what the impact of AI is going to be, where it’s going to be located, how much of the power is going to be required, and even for things like space and cooling, how much of the infrastructure is going to be sucked up to support AI, whether it’s in a colocation, whether it’s in an enterprise or even in a hyperscale facility,” Lawrence said during a webinar sharing the survey results. The survey found that roughly one-third of data center owners and operators currently perform some AI training or inference, with significantly more planning to do so in the future. As the number of AI-based software deployments increases, information about the capabilities and limitations of AI in the workplace is becoming available. The awareness is also revealing AI’s suitability for certain tasks. According to the report, “the data center industry is entering a period of careful adoption, testing, and validation. Data centers are slow and careful in adopting new technologies, and AI will not be an exception.”

Micron unveils PCIe Gen6 SSD to power AI data center workloads

Competitive positioning With the launch of the 9650 SSD PCIe Gen 6, Micron competes with Samsung and SK Hynix enterprise SSD offerings, which are the dominant players in the SSD market. In December last year, SK Hynix announced the development of PS1012 U.2 Gen5 PCIe SSD, for massive high-capacity storage for AI data centers. The PM1743 is Samsung’s PCIe Gen5 offering in the market, with 14,000 MBps sequential read, designed for high-performance enterprise workloads. According to Faruqui, PCIe Gen6 data center SSDs are best suited for AI inference performance enhancement. However, we’re still months away from large-scale adoption as no current CPU platforms are available with PCIe 6.0 support. Only Nvidia’s Blackwell-based GPUs have native PCIe 6.0 x16 support with interoperability tests in progress. He added that PCIe Gen 6 SSDs will see very delayed adoption in the PC segment and imminent 2025 2H adoption in AI, data centers, high-performance computing (HPC), and enterprise storage solutions. Micron has also introduced two additional SSDs alongside the 9650. The 6600 ION SSD delivers 122TB in an E3.S form factor and is targeted at hyperscale and enterprise data centers looking to consolidate server infrastructure and build large AI data lakes. A 245TB variant is on the roadmap. The 7600 PCIe Gen5 SSD, meanwhile, is aimed at mixed workloads that require lower latency.

AI Deployments are Reshaping Intra-Data Center Fiber and Communications

Artificial Intelligence is fundamentally changing the way data centers are architected, with a particular focus on the demands placed on internal fiber and communications infrastructure. While much attention is paid to the fiber connections between data centers or to end-users, the real transformation is happening inside the data center itself, where AI workloads are driving unprecedented requirements for bandwidth, low latency, and scalable networking. Network Segmentation and Specialization Inside the modern AI data center, the once-uniform network is giving way to a carefully divided architecture that reflects the growing divergence between conventional cloud services and the voracious needs of AI. Where a single, all-purpose network once sufficed, operators now deploy two distinct fabrics, each engineered for its own unique mission. The front-end network remains the familiar backbone for external user interactions and traditional cloud applications. Here, Ethernet still reigns, with server-to-leaf links running at 25 to 50 gigabits per second and spine connections scaling to 100 Gbps. Traffic is primarily north-south, moving data between users and the servers that power web services, storage, and enterprise applications. This is the network most people still imagine when they think of a data center: robust, versatile, and built for the demands of the internet age. But behind this familiar façade, a new, far more specialized network has emerged, dedicated entirely to the demands of GPU-driven AI workloads. In this backend, the rules are rewritten. Port speeds soar to 400 or even 800 gigabits per second per GPU, and latency is measured in sub-microseconds. The traffic pattern shifts decisively east-west, as servers and GPUs communicate in parallel, exchanging vast datasets at blistering speeds to train and run sophisticated AI models. The design of this network is anything but conventional: fat-tree or hypercube topologies ensure that no single link becomes a bottleneck, allowing thousands of

ABB and Applied Digital Build a Template for AI-Ready Data Centers

Toward the Future of AI Factories The ABB–Applied Digital partnership signals a shift in the fundamentals of data center development, where electrification strategy, hyperscale design and readiness, and long-term financial structuring are no longer separate tracks but part of a unified build philosophy. As Applied Digital pushes toward REIT status, the Ellendale campus becomes not just a development milestone but a cornerstone asset: a long-term, revenue-generating, AI-optimized property underpinned by industrial-grade power architecture. The 250 MW CoreWeave lease, with the option to expand to 400 MW, establishes a robust revenue base and validates the site’s design as AI-first, not cloud-retrofitted. At the same time, ABB is positioning itself as a leader in AI data center power architecture, setting a new benchmark for scalable, high-density infrastructure. Its HiPerGuard Medium Voltage UPS, backed by deep global manufacturing and engineering capabilities, reimagines power delivery for the AI era, bypassing the limitations of legacy low-voltage systems. More than a component provider, ABB is now architecting full-stack electrification strategies at the campus level, aiming to make this medium-voltage model the global standard for AI factories. What’s unfolding in North Dakota is a preview of what’s coming elsewhere: AI-ready campuses that marry investment-grade real estate with next-generation power infrastructure, built for a future measured in megawatts per rack, not just racks per row. As AI continues to reshape what data centers are and how they’re built, Ellendale may prove to be one of the key locations where the new standard was set.

Amazon’s Project Rainier Sets New Standard for AI Supercomputing at Scale

Supersized Infrastructure for the AI Era As AWS deploys Project Rainier, it is scaling AI compute to unprecedented heights, while also laying down a decisive marker in the escalating arms race for hyperscale dominance. With custom Trainium2 silicon, proprietary interconnects, and vertically integrated data center architecture, Amazon joins a trio of tech giants, alongside Microsoft’s Project Stargate and Google’s TPUv5 clusters, who are rapidly redefining the future of AI infrastructure. But Rainier represents more than just another high-performance cluster. It arrives in a moment where the size, speed, and ambition of AI infrastructure projects have entered uncharted territory. Consider the past several weeks alone: On June 24, AWS detailed Project Rainier, calling it “a massive, one-of-its-kind machine” and noting that “the sheer size of the project is unlike anything AWS has ever attempted.” The New York Times reports that the primary Rainier campus in Indiana could include up to 30 data center buildings. Just two days later, Fermi America unveiled plans for the HyperGrid AI campus in Amarillo, Texas on a sprawling 5,769-acre site with potential for 11 gigawatts of power and 18 million square feet of AI data center capacity. And on July 1, Oracle projected $30 billion in annual revenue from a single OpenAI cloud deal, tied to the Project Stargate campus in Abilene, Texas. As Data Center Frontier founder Rich Miller has observed, the dial on data center development has officially been turned to 11. Once an aspirational concept, the gigawatt-scale campus is now materializing—15 months after Miller forecasted its arrival. “It’s hard to imagine data center projects getting any bigger,” he notes. “But there’s probably someone out there wondering if they can adjust the dial so it goes to 12.” Against this backdrop, Project Rainier represents not just financial investment but architectural intent. Like Microsoft’s Stargate buildout in

Google and CTC Global Partner to Fast-Track U.S. Power Grid Upgrades

On June 17, 2025, Google and CTC Global announced a joint initiative to accelerate the deployment of high-capacity power transmission lines using CTC’s U.S.-manufactured ACCC® advanced conductors. The collaboration seeks to relieve grid congestion by rapidly upgrading existing infrastructure, enabling greater integration of clean energy, improving system resilience, and unlocking capacity for hyperscale data centers. The effort represents a rare convergence of corporate climate commitments, utility innovation, and infrastructure modernization aligned with the public interest. As part of the initiative, Google and CTC issued a Request for Information (RFI) with responses due by July 14. The RFI invites utilities, state energy authorities, and developers to nominate transmission line segments for potential fast-tracked upgrades. Selected projects will receive support in the form of technical assessments, financial assistance, and workforce development resources. While advanced conductor technologies like ACCC® can significantly improve the efficiency and capacity of existing transmission corridors, technological innovation alone cannot resolve the grid’s structural challenges. Building new or upgraded transmission lines in the U.S. often requires complex permitting from multiple federal, state, and local agencies, and frequently faces legal opposition, especially from communities invoking Not-In-My-Backyard (NIMBY) objections. Today, the average timeline to construct new interstate transmission infrastructure stretches between 10 and 12 years, an untenable lag in an era when grid reliability is under increasing stress. In 2024, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reported that more than 2,600 gigawatts (GW) of clean energy and storage projects were stalled in the interconnection queue, waiting for sufficient transmission capacity. The consequences affect not only industrial sectors like data centers but also residential areas vulnerable to brownouts and peak load disruptions. What is the New Technology? At the center of the initiative is CTC Global’s ACCC® (Aluminum Conductor Composite Core) advanced conductor, a next-generation overhead transmission technology engineered to boost grid

Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs). In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

Stay Ahead, Stay ONMINE