In a report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down by 2.5 million barrels for the week ending October 17. “This follows a 3.5 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing modestly tighter than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report. “For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model an increase in crude runs (+0.3 million barrels per day) following a surprisingly weak print last week; turnaround timing represents a source of meaningful potential variability in this week’s stats,” they added. “Among net imports, we model a moderate reduction, with exports higher (+0.6 million barrels per day) and imports up slightly (+0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued. The strategists also warned in the report that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance. “From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a slight decrease (-0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” the strategists went on to note. “Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a slightly larger increase (+0.9 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they added. The strategists stated in the report that, “among products”, they “look for draws in gasoline (-4.0 million barrels) and distillate (-1.2 million barrels), with a build in jet (+0.5 million barrels)”. “We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.4 million barrels per day for the week ending October 17,” the strategists added. In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on October 16 and included data for the week ending October 10, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that

Egypt is embarking on a plan to buy more oil products for power generation as the cash-strapped North African nation frees up gas for LNG exports, as part of efforts to repay money it owes to foreign operators. State-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corp. plans to buy more than a million tons of diesel, gasoline and butane gas for delivery in November, up 60 percent from the same period last year, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified as they’re not authorized to speak to the media. Egypt’s energy ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment. Egypt is seeking to encourage renewed investment by foreign energy companies, which have reduced financing in the country after years of waiting for the government to repay money it owes them. Declining domestic gas output amid surging local demand led Egypt to become a net importer of liquefied natural gas last year in order to avoid blackouts. That has added new financing strains on the government which is emerging from its worst economic crisis in decades. To break this cycle, Cairo decided to allow foreign energy operators to export their share of local gas production as LNG as a way to get their arrears paid and to go ahead with investments in Egypt’s gas output. Three LNG cargoes have been exported since September, including one that the government said was shipped from Egypt’s Idku terminal on behalf of Shell Plc. The government is now in talks with the foreign energy companies to allow them to produce volumes for two shipments every month for loading between November and March from Idku, according to the people.  Egypt’s production of crude oil and condensate fell to 486,000 barrels a day in July, the lowest in decades, according to data from Joint Oil

Woodside Energy Group Ltd has raised its projected 2025 production from 188-195 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe) to 192-197 MMboe due to “continued strong performance across assets”. The Australian company saw a one percent increase in output in the third quarter, totaling 50.8 MMboe or 552,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, according to a stock filing Wednesday. Production consisted of 1.83 billion standard cubic feet a day (Bscfd) of natural gas and 231,000 barrels per day (bpd) of liquids. The increase comes despite Woodside’s sale of producing oil and gas assets in Greater Angostura in Trinidad and Tobago to Perenco, completed in the quarter. Woodside reported 13,000 barrels of oil production and 242,000 oil-equivalent barrels of pipeline gas in Trinidad and Tobago in the July-September period, down from 93,000 barrels and 2.21 MMboe in the prior quarter respectively. In Australia Woodside produced 34.86 MMboe, up from 32.45 MMboe. Australian LNG and piped gas production totaled 20.9 MMboe and 7.85 MMboe respectively, up from 18.9 MMboe and 7.63 MMboe respectively. Australian crude and condensate production stood at 4.94 MMboe, up from 4.92 MMboe. All of Woodside’s liquefaction facilities – North West Shelf, Pluto and Wheatstone – increased output quarter-on-quarter. Pluto achieved 100 percent reliability. At North West Shelf, Woodside completed planned maintenance offshore at North Rankin and onshore at the Karratha Gas Plant. Woodside increased sales one percent quarter-over-quarter to 55 MMboe, consisting of 2.12 Bscfd of gas and 226,000 bpd of liquids. Revenue totaled $3.36 billion, up from $3.28 billion. While realized prices for LNG and East Coast and international piped gas fell, the average realized price rose two percent, “reflecting higher Dated Brent and West Texas Intermediate”, Woodside said. “We continued safe delivery of Woodside’s major growth projects to schedule and budget”, said chief executive Meg O’Neill. “Strong momentum

Nigerian National Petroleum Co Ltd (NNPC) averaged 1.37 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in crude production in the first three quarters, according to provisional figures published by the state-owned company on Tuesday. September’s oil output of 1.37 MMbpd represented the third consecutive month of decline, according to NNPC’s monthly report. Oil and condensate production totaled 1.61 MMbpd last month, with condensate accounting for 240,000 bpd. NNPC’s peak oil and condensate production in 2025 so far was 1.77 MMbpd. NNPC sold 17.81 million barrels of crude September, down for the second consecutive month. Its natural gas production and sales stood at 6.28 billion standard cubic feet a day (Bscfd) and 3.44 Bscfd in September respectively, both down for the second consecutive month. “Production levels during the period were temporarily moderated due to planned maintenance activities including those at NLNG alongside the phased recovery of previously shut-in assets and delays in the commencement of operations at OMLs 71 and 72”, the report said. NNPC reported a 77 percent petrol availability at its stations. NNPC’s upstream pipeline availability was 96 percent. NNPC logged NGN 4.27 trillion ($2.91 billion) in revenue for September. Profit after tax was NGN 216 billion. The company reported “statutory payments” of NGN 10.07 trillion. On the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano Gas Pipeline project, the report said, “Sustained focus is being directed towards completion of the mainline works with substantial progress being recorded”. NNPC said in a press release July 1 the project was on track for completion by yearend. On the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) Gas Pipeline project, the report said the execution plan was being revised “to ensure delivery within target timelines”. “113km portion of OB3 Gas Pipeline has been commissioned and flowing circa 300 MMscfd of gas”, the report added. In other developments, Shell PLC earlier this month announced a final investment

Oil eked out a gain with Washington planning on buying 1 million barrels of crude for the national stockpile, but held near a five-month low on expectations of a looming global surplus. West Texas Intermediate traded in a more than $1 range before settling near $58 a barrel. Although the US plan to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve supported prices, it wasn’t enough to shift sentiment in a market that has declined by more than 10% since late September. WTI futures are on course for a third monthly loss. The amount of crude on tankers at sea has risen to a record high, signaling that a long-anticipated surplus may have started to materialize, while time spreads are starting to signal ample supply. The International Energy Agency expects world oil inventories to exceed demand by almost 4 million barrels a day next year as OPEC+ and some countries outside the alliance ramp up output, likely in a bid to recapture market share. “We’ve got supply growth running three times faster than demand growth,” Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “Near-term we have a glut.” Commodity trading advisers, meanwhile, could potentially reach a maximum-short position in the next few sessions, helping send prices lower, according to data from Bridgeton Research Group. The robot traders are currently 91% short in both Brent and WTI, and could accelerate if futures fall by roughly 1%, the firm added. Traders are also keeping an eye on relations between the US and China, the world’s top producer and consumer of oil. US President Donald Trump again signaled that an expected meeting with counterpart Xi Jinping in South Korea next week might not materialize. The US benchmark crude future’s November expiry on Tuesday also contributed to choppy trading.

WASHINGTON — U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright today signed the final export authorization for the Venture Global CP2 LNG Project in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, allowing exports of up to 3.96 billion cubic feet per day of U.S. natural gas as liquefied natural gas (LNG) to non-Free Trade Agreement (FTA) countries. “In less than ten months, President Trump’s administration is redefining what it means to unleash American energy by approving record new LNG exports,” said Kyle Haustveit, Assistant Secretary of the Office of Fossil Energy. “Finalizing the non-FTA authorization for CP2 LNG will enable secure and reliable American energy access for our allies and trading partners, while also providing well-paid jobs and economic opportunities at home.” Today’s authorization follows the Department’s conditional authorization to CP2 LNG in March 2025 and reflects the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s May 2025 decision approving the siting, construction, and operation of the facility. It also incorporates DOE’s May 2025 response to comments on the 2024 LNG Export Study, which reaffirmed that U.S. LNG exports strengthen America’s energy leadership, expand opportunities for American workers, and provide our allies with secure access to reliable U.S. energy. On day one, President Trump directed the Energy Department to end the Biden administration’s LNG export pause and to resume the consideration of pending applications to export LNG to countries without a free trade agreement (FTA). Under President Trump’s leadership, DOE has authorized more than 13.8 Bcf/d of LNG exports—greater than the volume exported today by the world’s second-largest LNG supplier. Today, U.S. exports are approximately 15 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), an increase of approximately 25% from 2024 levels.