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A Visual Guide to How Diffusion Models Work

This article is aimed at those who want to understand exactly how Diffusion Models work, with no prior knowledge expected. I’ve tried to use illustrations wherever possible to provide visual intuitions on each part of these models. I’ve kept mathematical notation and equations to a minimum, and where they are necessary I’ve tried to define […]

This article is aimed at those who want to understand exactly how Diffusion Models work, with no prior knowledge expected. I’ve tried to use illustrations wherever possible to provide visual intuitions on each part of these models. I’ve kept mathematical notation and equations to a minimum, and where they are necessary I’ve tried to define and explain them as they occur.

Intro

I’ve framed this article around three main questions:

  • What exactly is it that diffusion models learn?
  • How and why do diffusion models work?
  • Once you’ve trained a model, how do you get useful stuff out of it?

The examples will be based on the glyffuser, a minimal text-to-image diffusion model that I previously implemented and wrote about. The architecture of this model is a standard text-to-image denoising diffusion model without any bells or whistles. It was trained to generate pictures of new “Chinese” glyphs from English definitions. Have a look at the picture below — even if you’re not familiar with Chinese writing, I hope you’ll agree that the generated glyphs look pretty similar to the real ones!

Random examples of glyffuser training data (left) and generated data (right).

What exactly is it that diffusion models learn?

Generative Ai models are often said to take a big pile of data and “learn” it. For text-to-image diffusion models, the data takes the form of pairs of images and descriptive text. But what exactly is it that we want the model to learn? First, let’s forget about the text for a moment and concentrate on what we are trying to generate: the images.

Probability distributions

Broadly, we can say that we want a generative AI model to learn the underlying probability distribution of the data. What does this mean? Consider the one-dimensional normal (Gaussian) distribution below, commonly written 𝒩(μ,σ²) and parameterized with mean μ = 0 and variance σ² = 1. The black curve below shows the probability density function. We can sample from it: drawing values such that over a large number of samples, the set of values reflects the underlying distribution. These days, we can simply write something like x = random.gauss(0, 1) in Python to sample from the standard normal distribution, although the computational sampling process itself is non-trivial!

Values sampled from an underlying distribution (here, the standard normal 𝒩(0,1)) can then be used to estimate the parameters of that distribution.

We could think of a set of numbers sampled from the above normal distribution as a simple dataset, like that shown as the orange histogram above. In this particular case, we can calculate the parameters of the underlying distribution using maximum likelihood estimation, i.e. by working out the mean and variance. The normal distribution estimated from the samples is shown by the dotted line above. To take some liberties with terminology, you might consider this as a simple example of “learning” an underlying probability distribution. We can also say that here we explicitly learnt the distribution, in contrast with the implicit methods that diffusion models use.

Conceptually, this is all that generative AI is doing — learning a distribution, then sampling from that distribution!

Data representations

What, then, does the underlying probability distribution of a more complex dataset look like, such as that of the image dataset we want to use to train our diffusion model?

First, we need to know what the representation of the data is. Generally, a machine learning (ML) model requires data inputs with a consistent representation, i.e. format. For the example above, it was simply numbers (scalars). For images, this representation is commonly a fixed-length vector.

The image dataset used for the glyffuser model is ~21,000 pictures of Chinese glyphs. The images are all the same size, 128 × 128 = 16384 pixels, and greyscale (single-channel color). Thus an obvious choice for the representation is a vector x of length 16384, where each element corresponds to the color of one pixel: x = (x,x₂,…,x₁₆₃₈₄). We can call the domain of all possible images for our dataset “pixel space”.

An example glyph with pixel values labelled (downsampled to 32 × 32 pixels for readability).

Dataset visualization

We make the assumption that our individual data samples, x, are actually sampled from an underlying probability distribution, q(x), in pixel space, much as the samples from our first example were sampled from an underlying normal distribution in 1-dimensional space. Note: the notation x q(x) is commonly used to mean: “the random variable x sampled from the probability distribution q(x).”

This distribution is clearly much more complex than a Gaussian and cannot be easily parameterized — we need to learn it with a ML model, which we’ll discuss later. First, let’s try to visualize the distribution to gain a better intution.

As humans find it difficult to see in more than 3 dimensions, we need to reduce the dimensionality of our data. A small digression on why this works: the manifold hypothesis posits that natural datasets lie on lower dimensional manifolds embedded in a higher dimensional space — think of a line embedded in a 2-D plane, or a plane embedded in 3-D space. We can use a dimensionality reduction technique such as UMAP to project our dataset from 16384 to 2 dimensions. The 2-D projection retains a lot of structure, consistent with the idea that our data lie on a lower dimensional manifold embedded in pixel space. In our UMAP, we see two large clusters corresponding to characters in which the components are arranged either horizontally (e.g. 明) or vertically (e.g. 草). An interactive version of the plot below with popups on each datapoint is linked here.

 Click here for an interactive version of this plot.

Let’s now use this low-dimensional UMAP dataset as a visual shorthand for our high-dimensional dataset. Remember, we assume that these individual points have been sampled from a continuous underlying probability distribution q(x). To get a sense of what this distribution might look like, we can apply a KDE (kernel density estimation) over the UMAP dataset. (Note: this is just an approximation for visualization purposes.)

This gives a sense of what q(x) should look like: clusters of glyphs correspond to high-probability regions of the distribution. The true q(x) lies in 16384 dimensions — this is the distribution we want to learn with our diffusion model.

We showed that for a simple distribution such as the 1-D Gaussian, we could calculate the parameters (mean and variance) from our data. However, for complex distributions such as images, we need to call on ML methods. Moreover, what we will find is that for diffusion models in practice, rather than parameterizing the distribution directly, they learn it implicitly through the process of learning how to transform noise into data over many steps.

Takeaway

The aim of generative AI such as diffusion models is to learn the complex probability distributions underlying their training data and then sample from these distributions.

How and why do diffusion models work?

Diffusion models have recently come into the spotlight as a particularly effective method for learning these probability distributions. They generate convincing images by starting from pure noise and gradually refining it. To whet your interest, have a look at the animation below that shows the denoising process generating 16 samples.

In this section we’ll only talk about the mechanics of how these models work but if you’re interested in how they arose from the broader context of generative models, have a look at the further reading section below.

What is “noise”?

Let’s first precisely define noise, since the term is thrown around a lot in the context of diffusion. In particular, we are talking about Gaussian noise: consider the samples we talked about in the section about probability distributions. You could think of each sample as an image of a single pixel of noise. An image that is “pure Gaussian noise”, then, is one in which each pixel value is sampled from an independent standard Gaussian distribution, 𝒩(0,1). For a pure noise image in the domain of our glyph dataset, this would be noise drawn from 16384 separate Gaussian distributions. You can see this in the previous animation. One thing to keep in mind is that we can choose the means of these noise distributions, i.e. center them, on specific values — the pixel values of an image, for instance.

For convenience, you’ll often find the noise distributions for image datasets written as a single multivariate distribution 𝒩(0,I) where I is the identity matrix, a covariance matrix with all diagonal entries equal to 1 and zeroes elsewhere. This is simply a compact notation for a set of multiple independent Gaussians — i.e. there are no correlations between the noise on different pixels. In the basic implementations of diffusion models, only uncorrelated (a.k.a. “isotropic”) noise is used. This article contains an excellent interactive introduction on multivariate Gaussians.

Diffusion process overview

Below is an adaptation of the somewhat-famous diagram from Ho et al.’s seminal paper “Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models” which gives an overview of the whole diffusion process:

Diagram of the diffusion process adapted from Ho et al. 2020. The glyph 锂, meaning “lithium”, is used as a representative sample from the dataset.

I found that there was a lot to unpack in this diagram and simply understanding what each component meant was very helpful, so let’s go through it and define everything step by step.

We previously used x q(x) to refer to our data. Here, we’ve added a subscript, xₜ, to denote timestep t indicating how many steps of “noising” have taken place. We refer to the samples noised a given timestep as x q(xₜ). x₀​ is clean data and xₜ (t = T) ∼ 𝒩(0,1) is pure noise.

We define a forward diffusion process whereby we corrupt samples with noise. This process is described by the distribution q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁). If we could access the hypothetical reverse process q(xₜ₋₁|xₜ), we could generate samples from noise. As we cannot access it directly because we would need to know x₀​, we use ML to learn the parameters, θ, of a model of this process, 𝑝θ(𝑥ₜ₋₁∣𝑥ₜ). (That should be p subscript θ but medium cannot render it.)

In the following sections we go into detail on how the forward and reverse diffusion processes work.

Forward diffusion, or “noising”

Used as a verb, “noising” an image refers to applying a transformation that moves it towards pure noise by scaling down its pixel values toward 0 while adding proportional Gaussian noise. Mathematically, this transformation is a multivariate Gaussian distribution centered on the pixel values of the preceding image.

In the forward diffusion process, this noising distribution is written as q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁) where the vertical bar symbol “|” is read as “given” or “conditional on”, to indicate the pixel means are passed forward from q(xₜ₋₁) At t = T where T is a large number (commonly 1000) we aim to end up with images of pure noise (which, somewhat confusingly, is also a Gaussian distribution, as discussed previously).

The marginal distributions q(xₜ) represent the distributions that have accumulated the effects of all the previous noising steps (marginalization refers to integration over all possible conditions, which recovers the unconditioned distribution).

Since the conditional distributions are Gaussian, what about their variances? They are determined by a variance schedule that maps timesteps to variance values. Initially, an empirically determined schedule of linearly increasing values from 0.0001 to 0.02 over 1000 steps was presented in Ho et al. Later research by Nichol & Dhariwal suggested an improved cosine schedule. They state that a schedule is most effective when the rate of information destruction through noising is relatively even per step throughout the whole noising process.

Forward diffusion intuition

As we encounter Gaussian distributions both as pure noise q(xₜ, t = T) and as the noising distribution q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁), I’ll try to draw the distinction by giving a visual intuition of the distribution for a single noising step, q(x₁∣x₀), for some arbitrary, structured 2-dimensional data:

Each noising step q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁) is a Gaussian distribution conditioned on the previous step.

The distribution q(x₁∣x₀) is Gaussian, centered around each point in x₀, shown in blue. Several example points x₀⁽ⁱ⁾ are picked to illustrate this, with q(x₁∣x₀ = x₀⁽ⁱ⁾) shown in orange.

In practice, the main usage of these distributions is to generate specific instances of noised samples for training (discussed further below). We can calculate the parameters of the noising distributions at any timestep t directly from the variance schedule, as the chain of Gaussians is itself also Gaussian. This is very convenient, as we don’t need to perform noising sequentially—for any given starting data x₀⁽ⁱ⁾, we can calculate the noised sample xₜ⁽ⁱ⁾ by sampling from q(xₜ∣x₀ = x₀⁽ⁱ⁾) directly.

Forward diffusion visualization

Let’s now return to our glyph dataset (once again using the UMAP visualization as a visual shorthand). The top row of the figure below shows our dataset sampled from distributions noised to various timesteps: xₜ ∼ q(xₜ). As we increase the number of noising steps, you can see that the dataset begins to resemble pure Gaussian noise. The bottom row visualizes the underlying probability distribution q(xₜ).

The dataset xₜ (above) sampled from its probability distribution q(xₜ) (below) at different noising timesteps.

Reverse diffusion overview

It follows that if we knew the reverse distributions q(xₜ₋₁∣xₜ), we could repeatedly subtract a small amount of noise, starting from a pure noise sample xₜ at t = T to arrive at a data sample x₀ ∼ q(x₀). In practice, however, we cannot access these distributions without knowing x₀ beforehand. Intuitively, it’s easy to make a known image much noisier, but given a very noisy image, it’s much harder to guess what the original image was.

So what are we to do? Since we have a large amount of data, we can train an ML model to accurately guess the original image that any given noisy image came from. Specifically, we learn the parameters θ of an ML model that approximates the reverse noising distributions, (xₜ₋₁ ∣ xₜ) for t = 0, …, T. In practice, this is embodied in a single noise prediction model trained over many different samples and timesteps. This allows it to denoise any given input, as shown in the figure below.

The ML model predicts added noise at any given timestep t.

Next, let’s go over how this noise prediction model is implemented and trained in practice.

How the model is implemented

First, we define the ML model — generally a deep neural network of some sort — that will act as our noise prediction model. This is what does the heavy lifting! In practice, any ML model that inputs and outputs data of the correct size can be used; the U-net, an architecture particularly suited to learning images, is what we use here and frequently chosen in practice. More recent models also use vision transformers.

We use the U-net architecture (Ronneberger et al. 2015) for our ML noise prediction model. We train the model by minimizing the difference between predicted and actual noise.

Then we run the training loop depicted in the figure above:

  • We take a random image from our dataset and noise it to a random timestep tt. (In practice, we speed things up by doing many examples in parallel!)
  • We feed the noised image into the ML model and train it to predict the (known to us) noise in the image. We also perform timestep conditioning by feeding the model a timestep embedding, a high-dimensional unique representation of the timestep, so that the model can distinguish between timesteps. This can be a vector the same size as our image directly added to the input (see here for a discussion of how this is implemented).
  • The model “learns” by minimizing the value of a loss function, some measure of the difference between the predicted and actual noise. The mean square error (the mean of the squares of the pixel-wise difference between the predicted and actual noise) is used in our case.
  • Repeat until the model is well trained.

Note: A neural network is essentially a function with a huge number of parameters (on the order of 10for the glyffuser). Neural network ML models are trained by iteratively updating their parameters using backpropagation to minimize a given loss function over many training data examples. This is an excellent introduction. These parameters effectively store the network’s “knowledge”.

A noise prediction model trained in this way eventually sees many different combinations of timesteps and data examples. The glyffuser, for example, was trained over 100 epochs (runs through the whole data set), so it saw around 2 million data samples. Through this process, the model implicity learns the reverse diffusion distributions over the entire dataset at all different timesteps. This allows the model to sample the underlying distribution q(x₀) by stepwise denoising starting from pure noise. Put another way, given an image noised to any given level, the model can predict how to reduce the noise based on its guess of what the original image. By doing this repeatedly, updating its guess of the original image each time, the model can transform any noise to a sample that lies in a high-probability region of the underlying data distribution.

Reverse diffusion in practice

We can now revisit this video of the glyffuser denoising process. Recall a large number of steps from sample to noise e.g. T = 1000 is used during training to make the noise-to-sample trajectory very easy for the model to learn, as changes between steps will be small. Does that mean we need to run 1000 denoising steps every time we want to generate a sample?

Luckily, this is not the case. Essentially, we can run the single-step noise prediction but then rescale it to any given step, although it might not be very good if the gap is too large! This allows us to approximate the full sampling trajectory with fewer steps. The video above uses 120 steps, for instance (most implementations will allow the user to set the number of sampling steps).

Recall that predicting the noise at a given step is equivalent to predicting the original image x₀, and that we can access the equation for any noised image deterministically using only the variance schedule and x₀. Thus, we can calculate xₜ₋ₖ based on any denoising step. The closer the steps are, the better the approximation will be.

Too few steps, however, and the results become worse as the steps become too large for the model to effectively approximate the denoising trajectory. If we only use 5 sampling steps, for example, the sampled characters don’t look very convincing at all:

There is then a whole literature on more advanced sampling methods beyond what we’ve discussed so far, allowing effective sampling with much fewer steps. These often reframe the sampling as a differential equation to be solved deterministically, giving an eerie quality to the sampling videos — I’ve included one at the end if you’re interested. In production-level models, these are usually preferred over the simple method discussed here, but the basic principle of deducing the noise-to-sample trajectory is the same. A full discussion is beyond the scope of this article but see e.g. this paper and its corresponding implementation in the Hugging Face diffusers library for more information.

Alternative intuition from score function

To me, it was still not 100% clear why training the model on noise prediction generalises so well. I found that an alternative interpretation of diffusion models known as “score-based modeling” filled some of the gaps in intuition (for more information, refer to Yang Song’s definitive article on the topic.)

The dataset xₜ sampled from its probability distribution q(xₜ) at different noising timesteps; below, we add the score function ∇ₓ log q(xₜ).

I try to give a visual intuition in the bottom row of the figure above: essentially, learning the noise in our diffusion model is equivalent (to a constant factor) to learning the score function, which is the gradient of the log of the probability distribution: ∇ₓ log q(x). As a gradient, the score function represents a vector field with vectors pointing towards the regions of highest probability density. Subtracting the noise at each step is then equivalent to moving following the directions in this vector field towards regions of high probability density.

As long as there is some signal, the score function effectively guides sampling, but in regions of low probability it tends towards zero as there is little to no gradient to follow. Using many steps to cover different noise levels allows us to avoid this, as we smear out the gradient field at high noise levels, allowing sampling to converge even if we start from low probability density regions of the distribution. The figure shows that as the noise level is increased, more of the domain is covered by the score function vector field.

Summary

  • The aim of diffusion models is learn the underlying probability distribution of a dataset and then be able to sample from it. This requires forward and reverse diffusion (noising) processes.
  • The forward noising process takes samples from our dataset and gradually adds Gaussian noise (pushes them off the data manifold). This forward process is computationally efficient because any level of noise can be added in closed form a single step.
  • The reverse noising process is challenging because we need to predict how to remove the noise at each step without knowing the original data point in advance. We train a ML model to do this by giving it many examples of data noised at different timesteps.
  • Using very small steps in the forward noising process makes it easier for the model to learn to reverse these steps, as the changes are small.
  • By applying the reverse noising process iteratively, the model refines noisy samples step by step, eventually producing a realistic data point (one that lies on the data manifold).

Takeaway

Diffusion models are a powerful framework for learning complex data distributions. The distributions are learnt implicitly by modelling a sequential denoising process. This process can then be used to generate samples similar to those in the training distribution.

Once you’ve trained a model, how do you get useful stuff out of it?

Earlier uses of generative AI such as “This Person Does Not Exist” (ca. 2019) made waves simply because it was the first time most people had seen AI-generated photorealistic human faces. A generative adversarial network or “GAN” was used in that case, but the principle remains the same: the model implicitly learnt a underlying data distribution — in that case, human faces — then sampled from it. So far, our glyffuser model does a similar thing: it samples randomly from the distribution of Chinese glyphs.

The question then arises: can we do something more useful than just sample randomly? You’ve likely already encountered text-to-image models such as Dall-E. They are able to incorporate extra meaning from text prompts into the diffusion process — this in known as conditioning. Likewise, diffusion models for scientific scientific applications like protein (e.g. Chroma, RFdiffusion, AlphaFold3) or inorganic crystal structure generation (e.g. MatterGen) become much more useful if can be conditioned to generate samples with desirable properties such as a specific symmetry, bulk modulus, or band gap.

Conditional distributions

We can consider conditioning as a way to guide the diffusion sampling process towards particular regions of our probability distribution. We mentioned conditional distributions in the context of forward diffusion. Below we show how conditioning can be thought of as reshaping a base distribution.

A simple example of a joint probability distribution p(x, y), shown as a contour map, along with its two marginal 1-D probability distributions, p(x) and p(y). The highest points of p(x, y) are at (x₁, y₁) and (x₂, y₂). The conditional distributions p(xy = y₁) and p(xy = y₂) are shown overlaid on the main plot.

Consider the figure above. Think of p(x) as a distribution we want to sample from (i.e., the images) and p(y) as conditioning information (i.e., the text dataset). These are the marginal distributions of a joint distribution p(x, y). Integrating p(x, y) over y recovers p(x), and vice versa.

Sampling from p(x), we are equally likely to get x₁ or x₂. However, we can condition on p(y = y₁) to obtain p(xy = y₁). You can think of this as taking a slice through p(x, y) at a given value of y. In this conditioned distribution, we are much more likely to sample at x₁ than x₂.

In practice, in order to condition on a text dataset, we need to convert the text into a numerical form. We can do this using large language model (LLM) embeddings that can be injected into the noise prediction model during training.

Embedding text with an LLM

In the glyffuser, our conditioning information is in the form of English text definitions. We have two requirements: 1) ML models prefer fixed-length vectors as input. 2) The numerical representation of our text must understand context — if we have the words “lithium” and “element” nearby, the meaning of “element” should be understood as “chemical element” rather than “heating element”. Both of these requirements can be met by using a pre-trained LLM.

The diagram below shows how an LLM converts text into fixed-length vectors. The text is first tokenized (LLMs break text into tokens, small chunks of characters, as their basic unit of interaction). Each token is converted into a base embedding, which is a fixed-length vector of the size of the LLM input. These vectors are then passed through the pre-trained LLM (here we use the encoder portion of Google’s T5 model), where they are imbued with additional contextual meaning. We end up with a array of n vectors of the same length d, i.e. a (n, d) sized tensor.

We can convert text to a numerical embedding imbued with contextual meaning using a pre-trained LLM.

Note: in some models, notably Dall-E, additional image-text alignment is performed using contrastive pretraining. Imagen seems to show that we can get away without doing this.

Training the diffusion model with text conditioning

The exact method that this embedding vector is injected into the model can vary. In Google’s Imagen model, for example, the embedding tensor is pooled (combined into a single vector in the embedding dimension) and added into the data as it passes through the noise prediction model; it is also included in a different way using cross-attention (a method of learning contextual information between sequences of tokens, most famously used in the transformer models that form the basis of LLMs like ChatGPT).

Conditioning information can be added via multiple different methods but the training loss remains the same.

In the glyffuser, we only use cross-attention to introduce this conditioning information. While a significant architectural change is required to introduce this additional information into the model, the loss function for our noise prediction model remains exactly the same.

Testing the conditioned diffusion model

Let’s do a simple test of the fully trained conditioned diffusion model. In the figure below, we try to denoise in a single step with the text prompt “Gold”. As touched upon in our interactive UMAP, Chinese characters often contain components known as radicals which can convey sound (phonetic radicals) or meaning (semantic radicals). A common semantic radical is derived from the character meaning “gold”, “金”, and is used in characters that are in some broad sense associated with gold or metals.

Even with a single sampling step, conditioning guides denoising towards the relevant regions of the probability distribution.

The figure shows that even though a single step is insufficient to approximate the denoising trajectory very well, we have moved into a region of our probability distribution with the “金” radical. This indicates that the text prompt is effectively guiding our sampling towards a region of the glyph probability distribution related to the meaning of the prompt. The animation below shows a 120 step denoising sequence for the same prompt, “Gold”. You can see that every generated glyph has either the 釒 or 钅 radical (the same radical in traditional and simplified Chinese, respectively).

Takeaway

Conditioning enables us to sample meaningful outputs from diffusion models.

Further remarks

I found that with the help of tutorials and existing libraries, it was possible to implement a working diffusion model despite not having a full understanding of what was going on under the hood. I think this is a good way to start learning and highly recommend Hugging Face’s tutorial on training a simple diffusion model using their diffusers Python library (which now includes my small bugfix!).

I’ve omitted some topics that are crucial to how production-grade diffusion models function, but are unnecessary for core understanding. One is the question of how to generate high resolution images. In our example, we did everything in pixel space, but this becomes very computationally expensive for large images. The general approach is to perform diffusion in a smaller space, then upscale it in a separate step. Methods include latent diffusion (used in Stable Diffusion) and cascaded super-resolution models (used in Imagen). Another topic is classifier-free guidance, a very elegant method for boosting the conditioning effect to give much better prompt adherence. I show the implementation in my previous post on the glyffuser and highly recommend this article if you want to learn more.

Further reading

A non-exhaustive list of materials I found very helpful:

Fun extras

Diffusion sampling using the DPMSolverSDEScheduler developed by Katherine Crowson and implemented in Hugging Face diffusers—note the smooth transition from noise to data.

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Sanctioned Tanker at Risk of Sinking After Blast

An oil tanker from Russia’s shadow fleet reportedly hit a mine and was at risk of sinking north of Turkey’s coastline, a local port agent said.  The vessel, called Kairos, suffered an explosion and a fire broke out on board. Turkey’s Directorate General for Maritime Affairs said an external impact caused the blaze aboard the 900-foot ship, and vessels have been dispatched to evacuate the 25 crew on board. It wasn’t carrying a cargo at the time.  The port agent report said the vessel could have hit a mine. Kairos is a Suezmax tanker that has been sanctioned by the UK and the EU for carrying Russian oil, but not by the US. Its previous voyage was from the Russian port of Novorossiysk to Paradip in India, hauling Urals crude. It was heading back to the Russian port to load its next cargo, according to vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. There has been a persistent risk of vessels being hit by mines in the region since Russia’s war in Ukraine began, with a handful of ships suffering explosions as a result. Earlier this year, there were also a series of mystery explosions on board ships that have carried oil for Russia outside of the Black Sea. An email address and phone number listed on a maritime database as the vessel’s manager didn’t respond to requests for comment outside of normal business hours. The Bosphorus, a key trade artery for commodities including Russian oil from ports in the Black Sea, remains open. The Kairos sails under the flag of Gambia, the agent said. Rusya’nın Novoroski limanına seyreden boş KAIROS tankeri, kıyılarımızdan 28 mil açıkta, dışarıdan bir etkiyle yangın çıktığı ihbarı alınmış olup gemideki 25 personelin durumu iyidir, denizcilerin tahliyesi için bölgeye kurtarma unsurlarımız sevk edilmiş, süreç takip edilmektedir. pic.twitter.com/rVcHPXL4YC — DENİZCİLİK

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Pions Takes ‘Big Step on Path Toward AEI’

In a statement sent to Rigzone by Pions’ Chief Transformation Officer (CTO) Toni Fadnes recently, Pions, previously named eDrilling, announced that it was “taking another big step on the path toward Artificial Engineering Intelligence (AEI)” and releasing Ida 2.0. The company described Ida 2.0 as its most capable AI Engineering Agent to date in the statement, noting that it delivers “significant improvements in speed, reliability, and quality across all objectives and task types”. Pions outlined that Ida 2.0 works across autonomous drilling operations, intelligent well design and engineering, drilling engineer productivity and data management, and drilling engineering large language models (LLM). “More intelligent, better at following your instructions, more perceptive to nuanced intent, detailed and information-dense visualizations, deeper interactivity, and with augmented enterprise-level customization,” Pions said in the statement. “From a system standpoint, the Ida 2.0 architecture offers much improved stability, fault tolerance, and security, making the system way more trustworthy also for production workloads,” it added. “Expanded operational control and customization provides deep observability into agent behavior, a requisite for agents to build trust with human engineers and other users,” it continued. Pions revealed in the statement that, in its internal benchmarks, Ida 2.0 “achieved significant improvement in task quality compared with previous models”.  “Testers highlighted the model’s improved relevance, and structure in its responses, and reported she was easier to understand,” Pions added. In a statement sent to Rigzone by Fadnes back in June, Pions introduced “the next generation of Ida”.  At the time, Pions outlined that the updated version “set… new standards for advanced reasoning and inference capabilities, as well as enhance[ed]… complex task management”. “Also, a new powerful feature extractor significantly boosts Ida’s adaptability and generalization, allowing her to tackle complex, real-world environments with increased confidence and efficiency,” it added, touting the update as “the most

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EIA Ups USA Oil Output Forecast, Still Sees Dip in 2026

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on November 6, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2025 and 2026 but still projected a dip in output from this year to next year. According to its November STEO, the EIA now sees U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, averaging 13.59 million barrels per day overall in 2025 and 13.58 million barrels per day in 2026. U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, averaged 13.23 million barrels per day in 2024, the EIA’s November STEO showed. The EIA sees U.S. crude oil output coming in at 13.82 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year, 13.67 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 13.60 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.47 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.57 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, according to its latest STEO. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in October, projected that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, would average 13.53 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.51 million barrels per day in 2026. In that STEO, the EIA forecast that production would come in at 13.66 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, 13.62 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 13.53 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.40 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.48 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. In its September STEO, the EIA saw U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, averaging 13.44 million barrels per day overall in 2025 and 13.30 million barrels per day in 2026. That STEO projected that U.S. crude oil

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Commodity Futures Trading Stopped After Glitch

(Update) November 28, 2025, 9:46 AM GMT: Article updated. Trading of futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was halted by a data-center fault, causing hours of disruption to markets across equities, foreign exchange, bonds and commodities. The malfunction is already longer than a similar, hours-long outage due to a technical error back in 2019 and underscores the reach of CME Group and its Globex electronic trading platform. It triggered widespread frustration as market participants contemplated the prospect of a lost trading session. “It’s a bit like flying dark,” said Thomas Helaine, head of equity sales at TP ICAP Europe in Paris. “When you’re trading cash equity like us, US futures give you an indication of where the market is going before the open. I can only imagine how complicated it must be for derivatives desks.” Millions of contracts tracking the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 trade every weekday virtually around the clock on the CME, one of the world’s largest derivatives exchanges. A spokesman for the group confirmed the outage was due to cooling issues at data centers run by CyrusOne, a Dallas-headquartered operator, but did not provide an estimated reopen time. The outage halted trading of US Treasury futures, while European and UK bond markets that trade on a different exchange were unaffected. EBS, a platform used in foreign exchange, was impacted, hurting price discovery in the market. For some traders, the timing of the disruption on Friday could cause particular inconvenience if it lasts, due to the need to roll positions from one monthly contract to another.  Gold saw erratic moves in early London trading, with the gap between bids and offers about 20 times wider than normal. US crude oil and palm oil on the Bursa Malaysia exchange were also affected. In commodities markets,

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Microsoft loses two senior AI infrastructure leaders as data center pressures mount

Microsoft did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Microsoft’s constraints Analysts say the twin departures mark a significant setback for Microsoft at a critical moment in the AI data center race, with pressure mounting from both OpenAI’s model demands and Google’s infrastructure scale. “Losing some of the best professionals working on this challenge could set Microsoft back,” said Neil Shah, partner and co-founder at Counterpoint Research. “Solving the energy wall is not trivial, and there may have been friction or strategic differences that contributed to their decision to move on, especially if they saw an opportunity to make a broader impact and do so more lucratively at a company like Nvidia.” Even so, Microsoft has the depth and ecosystem strength to continue doubling down on AI data centers, said Prabhu Ram, VP for industry research at Cybermedia Research. According to Sanchit Gogia, chief analyst at Greyhound Research, the departures come at a sensitive moment because Microsoft is trying to expand its AI infrastructure faster than physical constraints allow. “The executives who have left were central to GPU cluster design, data center engineering, energy procurement, and the experimental power and cooling approaches Microsoft has been pursuing to support dense AI workloads,” Gogia said. “Their exit coincides with pressures the company has already acknowledged publicly. GPUs are arriving faster than the company can energize the facilities that will house them, and power availability has overtaken chip availability as the real bottleneck.”

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What is Edge AI? When the cloud isn’t close enough

Many edge devices can periodically send summarized or selected inference output data back to a central system for model retraining or refinement. That feedback loop helps the model improve over time while still keeping most decisions local. And to run efficiently on constrained edge hardware, the AI model is often pre-processed by techniques such as quantization (which reduces precision), pruning (which removes redundant parameters), or knowledge distillation (which trains a smaller model to mimic a larger one). These optimizations reduce the model’s memory, compute, and power demands so it can run more easily on an edge device. What technologies make edge AI possible? The concept of the “edge” always assumes that edge devices are less computationally powerful than data centers and cloud platforms. While that remains true, overall improvements in computational hardware have made today’s edge devices much more capable than those designed just a few years ago. In fact, a whole host of technological developments have come together to make edge AI a reality. Specialized hardware acceleration. Edge devices now ship with dedicated AI-accelerators (NPUs, TPUs, GPU cores) and system-on-chip units tailored for on-device inference. For example, companies like Arm have integrated AI-acceleration libraries into standard frameworks so models can run efficiently on Arm-based CPUs. Connectivity and data architecture. Edge AI often depends on durable, low-latency links (e.g., 5G, WiFi 6, LPWAN) and architectures that move compute closer to data. Merging edge nodes, gateways, and local servers means less reliance on distant clouds. And technologies like Kubernetes can provide a consistent management plane from the data center to remote locations. Deployment, orchestration, and model lifecycle tooling. Edge AI deployments must support model-update delivery, device and fleet monitoring, versioning, rollback and secure inference — especially when orchestrated across hundreds or thousands of locations. VMware, for instance, is offering traffic management

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Networks, AI, and metaversing

Our first, conservative, view says that AI’s network impact is largely confined to the data center, to connect clusters of GPU servers and the data they use as they crunch large language models. It’s all “horizontal” traffic; one TikTok challenge would generate way more traffic in the wide area. WAN costs won’t rise for you as an enterprise, and if you’re a carrier you won’t be carrying much new, so you don’t have much service revenue upside. If you don’t host AI on premises, you can pretty much dismiss its impact on your network. Contrast that with the radical metaverse view, our third view. Metaverses and AR/VR transform AI missions, and network services, from transaction processing to event processing, because the real world is a bunch of events pushing on you. They also let you visualize the way that process control models (digital twins) relate to the real world, which is critical if the processes you’re modeling involve human workers who rely on their visual sense. Could it be that the reason Meta is willing to spend on AI, is that the most credible application of AI, and the most impactful for networks, is the metaverse concept? In any event, this model of AI, by driving the users’ experiences and activities directly, demands significant edge connectivity, so you could expect it to have a major impact on network requirements. In fact, just dipping your toes into a metaverse could require a major up-front network upgrade. Networks carry traffic. Traffic is messages. More messages, more traffic, more infrastructure, more service revenue…you get the picture. Door number one, to the AI giant future, leads to nothing much in terms of messages. Door number three, metaverses and AR/VR, leads to a message, traffic, and network revolution. I’ll bet that most enterprises would doubt

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Microsoft’s Fairwater Atlanta and the Rise of the Distributed AI Supercomputer

Microsoft’s second Fairwater data center in Atlanta isn’t just “another big GPU shed.” It represents the other half of a deliberate architectural experiment: proving that two massive AI campuses, separated by roughly 700 miles, can operate as one coherent, distributed supercomputer. The Atlanta installation is the latest expression of Microsoft’s AI-first data center design: purpose-built for training and serving frontier models rather than supporting mixed cloud workloads. It links directly to the original Fairwater campus in Wisconsin, as well as to earlier generations of Azure AI supercomputers, through a dedicated AI WAN backbone that Microsoft describes as the foundation of a “planet-scale AI superfactory.” Inside a Fairwater Site: Preparing for Multi-Site Distribution Efficient multi-site training only works if each individual site behaves as a clean, well-structured unit. Microsoft’s intra-site design is deliberately simplified so that cross-site coordination has a predictable abstraction boundary—essential for treating multiple campuses as one distributed AI system. Each Fairwater installation presents itself as a single, flat, high-regularity cluster: Up to 72 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs per rack, using GB200 NVL72 rack-scale systems. NVLink provides the ultra-low-latency, high-bandwidth scale-up fabric within the rack, while the Spectrum-X Ethernet stack handles scale-out. Each rack delivers roughly 1.8 TB/s of GPU-to-GPU bandwidth and exposes a multi-terabyte pooled memory space addressable via NVLink—critical for large-model sharding, activation checkpointing, and parallelism strategies. Racks feed into a two-tier Ethernet scale-out network offering 800 Gbps GPU-to-GPU connectivity with very low hop counts, engineered to scale to hundreds of thousands of GPUs without encountering the classic port-count and topology constraints of traditional Clos fabrics. Microsoft confirms that the fabric relies heavily on: SONiC-based switching and a broad commodity Ethernet ecosystem to avoid vendor lock-in and accelerate architectural iteration. Custom network optimizations, such as packet trimming, packet spray, high-frequency telemetry, and advanced congestion-control mechanisms, to prevent collective

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Land & Expand: Hyperscale, AI Factory, Megascale

Land & Expand is Data Center Frontier’s periodic roundup of notable North American data center development activity, tracking the newest sites, land plays, retrofits, and hyperscale campus expansions shaping the industry’s build cycle. October delivered a steady cadence of announcements, with several megascale projects advancing from concept to commitment. The month was defined by continued momentum in OpenAI and Oracle’s Stargate initiative (now spanning multiple U.S. regions) as well as major new investments from Google, Meta, DataBank, and emerging AI cloud players accelerating high-density reuse strategies. The result is a clearer picture of how the next wave of AI-first infrastructure is taking shape across the country. Google Begins $4B West Memphis Hyperscale Buildout Google formally broke ground on its $4 billion hyperscale campus in West Memphis, Arkansas, marking the company’s first data center in the state and the anchor for a new Mid-South operational hub. The project spans just over 1,000 acres, with initial site preparation and utility coordination already underway. Google and Entergy Arkansas confirmed a 600 MW solar generation partnership, structured to add dedicated renewable supply to the regional grid. As part of the launch, Google announced a $25 million Energy Impact Fund for local community affordability programs and energy-resilience improvements—an unusually early community-benefit commitment for a first-phase hyperscale project. Cooling specifics have not yet been made public. Water sourcing—whether reclaimed, potable, or hybrid seasonal mode—remains under review, as the company finalizes environmental permits. Public filings reference a large-scale onsite water treatment facility, similar to Google’s deployments in The Dalles and Council Bluffs. Local governance documents show that prior to the October announcement, West Memphis approved a 30-year PILOT via Groot LLC (Google’s land assembly entity), with early filings referencing a typical placeholder of ~50 direct jobs. At launch, officials emphasized hundreds of full-time operations roles and thousands

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The New Digital Infrastructure Geography: Green Street’s David Guarino on AI Demand, Power Scarcity, and the Next Phase of Data Center Growth

As the global data center industry races through its most frenetic build cycle in history, one question continues to define the market’s mood: is this the peak of an AI-fueled supercycle, or the beginning of a structurally different era for digital infrastructure? For Green Street Managing Director and Head of Global Data Center and Tower Research David Guarino, the answer—based firmly on observable fundamentals—is increasingly clear. Demand remains blisteringly strong. Capital appetite is deepening. And the very definition of a “data center market” is shifting beneath the industry’s feet. In a wide-ranging discussion with Data Center Frontier, Guarino outlined why data centers continue to stand out in the commercial real estate landscape, how AI is reshaping underwriting and development models, why behind-the-meter power is quietly reorganizing the U.S. map, and what Green Street sees ahead for rents, REITs, and the next wave of hyperscale expansion. A ‘Safe’ Asset in an Uncertain CRE Landscape Among institutional investors, the post-COVID era was the moment data centers stepped decisively out of “niche” territory. Guarino notes that pandemic-era reliance on digital services crystallized a structural recognition: data centers deliver stable, predictable cash flows, anchored by the highest-credit tenants in global real estate. Hyperscalers today dominate new leasing and routinely sign 15-year (or longer) contracts, a duration largely unmatched across CRE categories. When compared with one-year apartment leases, five-year office leases, or mall anchor terms, the stability story becomes plain. “These are AAA-caliber companies signing the longest leases in the sector’s history,” Guarino said. “From a real estate point of view, that combination of tenant quality and lease duration continues to position the asset class as uniquely durable.” And development returns remain exceptional. Even without assuming endless AI growth, the math works: strong demand, rising rents, and high-credit tenants create unusually predictable performance relative to

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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