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A Visual Guide to How Diffusion Models Work

This article is aimed at those who want to understand exactly how Diffusion Models work, with no prior knowledge expected. I’ve tried to use illustrations wherever possible to provide visual intuitions on each part of these models. I’ve kept mathematical notation and equations to a minimum, and where they are necessary I’ve tried to define […]

This article is aimed at those who want to understand exactly how Diffusion Models work, with no prior knowledge expected. I’ve tried to use illustrations wherever possible to provide visual intuitions on each part of these models. I’ve kept mathematical notation and equations to a minimum, and where they are necessary I’ve tried to define and explain them as they occur.

Intro

I’ve framed this article around three main questions:

  • What exactly is it that diffusion models learn?
  • How and why do diffusion models work?
  • Once you’ve trained a model, how do you get useful stuff out of it?

The examples will be based on the glyffuser, a minimal text-to-image diffusion model that I previously implemented and wrote about. The architecture of this model is a standard text-to-image denoising diffusion model without any bells or whistles. It was trained to generate pictures of new “Chinese” glyphs from English definitions. Have a look at the picture below — even if you’re not familiar with Chinese writing, I hope you’ll agree that the generated glyphs look pretty similar to the real ones!

Random examples of glyffuser training data (left) and generated data (right).

What exactly is it that diffusion models learn?

Generative Ai models are often said to take a big pile of data and “learn” it. For text-to-image diffusion models, the data takes the form of pairs of images and descriptive text. But what exactly is it that we want the model to learn? First, let’s forget about the text for a moment and concentrate on what we are trying to generate: the images.

Probability distributions

Broadly, we can say that we want a generative AI model to learn the underlying probability distribution of the data. What does this mean? Consider the one-dimensional normal (Gaussian) distribution below, commonly written 𝒩(μ,σ²) and parameterized with mean μ = 0 and variance σ² = 1. The black curve below shows the probability density function. We can sample from it: drawing values such that over a large number of samples, the set of values reflects the underlying distribution. These days, we can simply write something like x = random.gauss(0, 1) in Python to sample from the standard normal distribution, although the computational sampling process itself is non-trivial!

Values sampled from an underlying distribution (here, the standard normal 𝒩(0,1)) can then be used to estimate the parameters of that distribution.

We could think of a set of numbers sampled from the above normal distribution as a simple dataset, like that shown as the orange histogram above. In this particular case, we can calculate the parameters of the underlying distribution using maximum likelihood estimation, i.e. by working out the mean and variance. The normal distribution estimated from the samples is shown by the dotted line above. To take some liberties with terminology, you might consider this as a simple example of “learning” an underlying probability distribution. We can also say that here we explicitly learnt the distribution, in contrast with the implicit methods that diffusion models use.

Conceptually, this is all that generative AI is doing — learning a distribution, then sampling from that distribution!

Data representations

What, then, does the underlying probability distribution of a more complex dataset look like, such as that of the image dataset we want to use to train our diffusion model?

First, we need to know what the representation of the data is. Generally, a machine learning (ML) model requires data inputs with a consistent representation, i.e. format. For the example above, it was simply numbers (scalars). For images, this representation is commonly a fixed-length vector.

The image dataset used for the glyffuser model is ~21,000 pictures of Chinese glyphs. The images are all the same size, 128 × 128 = 16384 pixels, and greyscale (single-channel color). Thus an obvious choice for the representation is a vector x of length 16384, where each element corresponds to the color of one pixel: x = (x,x₂,…,x₁₆₃₈₄). We can call the domain of all possible images for our dataset “pixel space”.

An example glyph with pixel values labelled (downsampled to 32 × 32 pixels for readability).

Dataset visualization

We make the assumption that our individual data samples, x, are actually sampled from an underlying probability distribution, q(x), in pixel space, much as the samples from our first example were sampled from an underlying normal distribution in 1-dimensional space. Note: the notation x q(x) is commonly used to mean: “the random variable x sampled from the probability distribution q(x).”

This distribution is clearly much more complex than a Gaussian and cannot be easily parameterized — we need to learn it with a ML model, which we’ll discuss later. First, let’s try to visualize the distribution to gain a better intution.

As humans find it difficult to see in more than 3 dimensions, we need to reduce the dimensionality of our data. A small digression on why this works: the manifold hypothesis posits that natural datasets lie on lower dimensional manifolds embedded in a higher dimensional space — think of a line embedded in a 2-D plane, or a plane embedded in 3-D space. We can use a dimensionality reduction technique such as UMAP to project our dataset from 16384 to 2 dimensions. The 2-D projection retains a lot of structure, consistent with the idea that our data lie on a lower dimensional manifold embedded in pixel space. In our UMAP, we see two large clusters corresponding to characters in which the components are arranged either horizontally (e.g. 明) or vertically (e.g. 草). An interactive version of the plot below with popups on each datapoint is linked here.

 Click here for an interactive version of this plot.

Let’s now use this low-dimensional UMAP dataset as a visual shorthand for our high-dimensional dataset. Remember, we assume that these individual points have been sampled from a continuous underlying probability distribution q(x). To get a sense of what this distribution might look like, we can apply a KDE (kernel density estimation) over the UMAP dataset. (Note: this is just an approximation for visualization purposes.)

This gives a sense of what q(x) should look like: clusters of glyphs correspond to high-probability regions of the distribution. The true q(x) lies in 16384 dimensions — this is the distribution we want to learn with our diffusion model.

We showed that for a simple distribution such as the 1-D Gaussian, we could calculate the parameters (mean and variance) from our data. However, for complex distributions such as images, we need to call on ML methods. Moreover, what we will find is that for diffusion models in practice, rather than parameterizing the distribution directly, they learn it implicitly through the process of learning how to transform noise into data over many steps.

Takeaway

The aim of generative AI such as diffusion models is to learn the complex probability distributions underlying their training data and then sample from these distributions.

How and why do diffusion models work?

Diffusion models have recently come into the spotlight as a particularly effective method for learning these probability distributions. They generate convincing images by starting from pure noise and gradually refining it. To whet your interest, have a look at the animation below that shows the denoising process generating 16 samples.

In this section we’ll only talk about the mechanics of how these models work but if you’re interested in how they arose from the broader context of generative models, have a look at the further reading section below.

What is “noise”?

Let’s first precisely define noise, since the term is thrown around a lot in the context of diffusion. In particular, we are talking about Gaussian noise: consider the samples we talked about in the section about probability distributions. You could think of each sample as an image of a single pixel of noise. An image that is “pure Gaussian noise”, then, is one in which each pixel value is sampled from an independent standard Gaussian distribution, 𝒩(0,1). For a pure noise image in the domain of our glyph dataset, this would be noise drawn from 16384 separate Gaussian distributions. You can see this in the previous animation. One thing to keep in mind is that we can choose the means of these noise distributions, i.e. center them, on specific values — the pixel values of an image, for instance.

For convenience, you’ll often find the noise distributions for image datasets written as a single multivariate distribution 𝒩(0,I) where I is the identity matrix, a covariance matrix with all diagonal entries equal to 1 and zeroes elsewhere. This is simply a compact notation for a set of multiple independent Gaussians — i.e. there are no correlations between the noise on different pixels. In the basic implementations of diffusion models, only uncorrelated (a.k.a. “isotropic”) noise is used. This article contains an excellent interactive introduction on multivariate Gaussians.

Diffusion process overview

Below is an adaptation of the somewhat-famous diagram from Ho et al.’s seminal paper “Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models” which gives an overview of the whole diffusion process:

Diagram of the diffusion process adapted from Ho et al. 2020. The glyph 锂, meaning “lithium”, is used as a representative sample from the dataset.

I found that there was a lot to unpack in this diagram and simply understanding what each component meant was very helpful, so let’s go through it and define everything step by step.

We previously used x q(x) to refer to our data. Here, we’ve added a subscript, xₜ, to denote timestep t indicating how many steps of “noising” have taken place. We refer to the samples noised a given timestep as x q(xₜ). x₀​ is clean data and xₜ (t = T) ∼ 𝒩(0,1) is pure noise.

We define a forward diffusion process whereby we corrupt samples with noise. This process is described by the distribution q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁). If we could access the hypothetical reverse process q(xₜ₋₁|xₜ), we could generate samples from noise. As we cannot access it directly because we would need to know x₀​, we use ML to learn the parameters, θ, of a model of this process, 𝑝θ(𝑥ₜ₋₁∣𝑥ₜ). (That should be p subscript θ but medium cannot render it.)

In the following sections we go into detail on how the forward and reverse diffusion processes work.

Forward diffusion, or “noising”

Used as a verb, “noising” an image refers to applying a transformation that moves it towards pure noise by scaling down its pixel values toward 0 while adding proportional Gaussian noise. Mathematically, this transformation is a multivariate Gaussian distribution centered on the pixel values of the preceding image.

In the forward diffusion process, this noising distribution is written as q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁) where the vertical bar symbol “|” is read as “given” or “conditional on”, to indicate the pixel means are passed forward from q(xₜ₋₁) At t = T where T is a large number (commonly 1000) we aim to end up with images of pure noise (which, somewhat confusingly, is also a Gaussian distribution, as discussed previously).

The marginal distributions q(xₜ) represent the distributions that have accumulated the effects of all the previous noising steps (marginalization refers to integration over all possible conditions, which recovers the unconditioned distribution).

Since the conditional distributions are Gaussian, what about their variances? They are determined by a variance schedule that maps timesteps to variance values. Initially, an empirically determined schedule of linearly increasing values from 0.0001 to 0.02 over 1000 steps was presented in Ho et al. Later research by Nichol & Dhariwal suggested an improved cosine schedule. They state that a schedule is most effective when the rate of information destruction through noising is relatively even per step throughout the whole noising process.

Forward diffusion intuition

As we encounter Gaussian distributions both as pure noise q(xₜ, t = T) and as the noising distribution q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁), I’ll try to draw the distinction by giving a visual intuition of the distribution for a single noising step, q(x₁∣x₀), for some arbitrary, structured 2-dimensional data:

Each noising step q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁) is a Gaussian distribution conditioned on the previous step.

The distribution q(x₁∣x₀) is Gaussian, centered around each point in x₀, shown in blue. Several example points x₀⁽ⁱ⁾ are picked to illustrate this, with q(x₁∣x₀ = x₀⁽ⁱ⁾) shown in orange.

In practice, the main usage of these distributions is to generate specific instances of noised samples for training (discussed further below). We can calculate the parameters of the noising distributions at any timestep t directly from the variance schedule, as the chain of Gaussians is itself also Gaussian. This is very convenient, as we don’t need to perform noising sequentially—for any given starting data x₀⁽ⁱ⁾, we can calculate the noised sample xₜ⁽ⁱ⁾ by sampling from q(xₜ∣x₀ = x₀⁽ⁱ⁾) directly.

Forward diffusion visualization

Let’s now return to our glyph dataset (once again using the UMAP visualization as a visual shorthand). The top row of the figure below shows our dataset sampled from distributions noised to various timesteps: xₜ ∼ q(xₜ). As we increase the number of noising steps, you can see that the dataset begins to resemble pure Gaussian noise. The bottom row visualizes the underlying probability distribution q(xₜ).

The dataset xₜ (above) sampled from its probability distribution q(xₜ) (below) at different noising timesteps.

Reverse diffusion overview

It follows that if we knew the reverse distributions q(xₜ₋₁∣xₜ), we could repeatedly subtract a small amount of noise, starting from a pure noise sample xₜ at t = T to arrive at a data sample x₀ ∼ q(x₀). In practice, however, we cannot access these distributions without knowing x₀ beforehand. Intuitively, it’s easy to make a known image much noisier, but given a very noisy image, it’s much harder to guess what the original image was.

So what are we to do? Since we have a large amount of data, we can train an ML model to accurately guess the original image that any given noisy image came from. Specifically, we learn the parameters θ of an ML model that approximates the reverse noising distributions, (xₜ₋₁ ∣ xₜ) for t = 0, …, T. In practice, this is embodied in a single noise prediction model trained over many different samples and timesteps. This allows it to denoise any given input, as shown in the figure below.

The ML model predicts added noise at any given timestep t.

Next, let’s go over how this noise prediction model is implemented and trained in practice.

How the model is implemented

First, we define the ML model — generally a deep neural network of some sort — that will act as our noise prediction model. This is what does the heavy lifting! In practice, any ML model that inputs and outputs data of the correct size can be used; the U-net, an architecture particularly suited to learning images, is what we use here and frequently chosen in practice. More recent models also use vision transformers.

We use the U-net architecture (Ronneberger et al. 2015) for our ML noise prediction model. We train the model by minimizing the difference between predicted and actual noise.

Then we run the training loop depicted in the figure above:

  • We take a random image from our dataset and noise it to a random timestep tt. (In practice, we speed things up by doing many examples in parallel!)
  • We feed the noised image into the ML model and train it to predict the (known to us) noise in the image. We also perform timestep conditioning by feeding the model a timestep embedding, a high-dimensional unique representation of the timestep, so that the model can distinguish between timesteps. This can be a vector the same size as our image directly added to the input (see here for a discussion of how this is implemented).
  • The model “learns” by minimizing the value of a loss function, some measure of the difference between the predicted and actual noise. The mean square error (the mean of the squares of the pixel-wise difference between the predicted and actual noise) is used in our case.
  • Repeat until the model is well trained.

Note: A neural network is essentially a function with a huge number of parameters (on the order of 10for the glyffuser). Neural network ML models are trained by iteratively updating their parameters using backpropagation to minimize a given loss function over many training data examples. This is an excellent introduction. These parameters effectively store the network’s “knowledge”.

A noise prediction model trained in this way eventually sees many different combinations of timesteps and data examples. The glyffuser, for example, was trained over 100 epochs (runs through the whole data set), so it saw around 2 million data samples. Through this process, the model implicity learns the reverse diffusion distributions over the entire dataset at all different timesteps. This allows the model to sample the underlying distribution q(x₀) by stepwise denoising starting from pure noise. Put another way, given an image noised to any given level, the model can predict how to reduce the noise based on its guess of what the original image. By doing this repeatedly, updating its guess of the original image each time, the model can transform any noise to a sample that lies in a high-probability region of the underlying data distribution.

Reverse diffusion in practice

We can now revisit this video of the glyffuser denoising process. Recall a large number of steps from sample to noise e.g. T = 1000 is used during training to make the noise-to-sample trajectory very easy for the model to learn, as changes between steps will be small. Does that mean we need to run 1000 denoising steps every time we want to generate a sample?

Luckily, this is not the case. Essentially, we can run the single-step noise prediction but then rescale it to any given step, although it might not be very good if the gap is too large! This allows us to approximate the full sampling trajectory with fewer steps. The video above uses 120 steps, for instance (most implementations will allow the user to set the number of sampling steps).

Recall that predicting the noise at a given step is equivalent to predicting the original image x₀, and that we can access the equation for any noised image deterministically using only the variance schedule and x₀. Thus, we can calculate xₜ₋ₖ based on any denoising step. The closer the steps are, the better the approximation will be.

Too few steps, however, and the results become worse as the steps become too large for the model to effectively approximate the denoising trajectory. If we only use 5 sampling steps, for example, the sampled characters don’t look very convincing at all:

There is then a whole literature on more advanced sampling methods beyond what we’ve discussed so far, allowing effective sampling with much fewer steps. These often reframe the sampling as a differential equation to be solved deterministically, giving an eerie quality to the sampling videos — I’ve included one at the end if you’re interested. In production-level models, these are usually preferred over the simple method discussed here, but the basic principle of deducing the noise-to-sample trajectory is the same. A full discussion is beyond the scope of this article but see e.g. this paper and its corresponding implementation in the Hugging Face diffusers library for more information.

Alternative intuition from score function

To me, it was still not 100% clear why training the model on noise prediction generalises so well. I found that an alternative interpretation of diffusion models known as “score-based modeling” filled some of the gaps in intuition (for more information, refer to Yang Song’s definitive article on the topic.)

The dataset xₜ sampled from its probability distribution q(xₜ) at different noising timesteps; below, we add the score function ∇ₓ log q(xₜ).

I try to give a visual intuition in the bottom row of the figure above: essentially, learning the noise in our diffusion model is equivalent (to a constant factor) to learning the score function, which is the gradient of the log of the probability distribution: ∇ₓ log q(x). As a gradient, the score function represents a vector field with vectors pointing towards the regions of highest probability density. Subtracting the noise at each step is then equivalent to moving following the directions in this vector field towards regions of high probability density.

As long as there is some signal, the score function effectively guides sampling, but in regions of low probability it tends towards zero as there is little to no gradient to follow. Using many steps to cover different noise levels allows us to avoid this, as we smear out the gradient field at high noise levels, allowing sampling to converge even if we start from low probability density regions of the distribution. The figure shows that as the noise level is increased, more of the domain is covered by the score function vector field.

Summary

  • The aim of diffusion models is learn the underlying probability distribution of a dataset and then be able to sample from it. This requires forward and reverse diffusion (noising) processes.
  • The forward noising process takes samples from our dataset and gradually adds Gaussian noise (pushes them off the data manifold). This forward process is computationally efficient because any level of noise can be added in closed form a single step.
  • The reverse noising process is challenging because we need to predict how to remove the noise at each step without knowing the original data point in advance. We train a ML model to do this by giving it many examples of data noised at different timesteps.
  • Using very small steps in the forward noising process makes it easier for the model to learn to reverse these steps, as the changes are small.
  • By applying the reverse noising process iteratively, the model refines noisy samples step by step, eventually producing a realistic data point (one that lies on the data manifold).

Takeaway

Diffusion models are a powerful framework for learning complex data distributions. The distributions are learnt implicitly by modelling a sequential denoising process. This process can then be used to generate samples similar to those in the training distribution.

Once you’ve trained a model, how do you get useful stuff out of it?

Earlier uses of generative AI such as “This Person Does Not Exist” (ca. 2019) made waves simply because it was the first time most people had seen AI-generated photorealistic human faces. A generative adversarial network or “GAN” was used in that case, but the principle remains the same: the model implicitly learnt a underlying data distribution — in that case, human faces — then sampled from it. So far, our glyffuser model does a similar thing: it samples randomly from the distribution of Chinese glyphs.

The question then arises: can we do something more useful than just sample randomly? You’ve likely already encountered text-to-image models such as Dall-E. They are able to incorporate extra meaning from text prompts into the diffusion process — this in known as conditioning. Likewise, diffusion models for scientific scientific applications like protein (e.g. Chroma, RFdiffusion, AlphaFold3) or inorganic crystal structure generation (e.g. MatterGen) become much more useful if can be conditioned to generate samples with desirable properties such as a specific symmetry, bulk modulus, or band gap.

Conditional distributions

We can consider conditioning as a way to guide the diffusion sampling process towards particular regions of our probability distribution. We mentioned conditional distributions in the context of forward diffusion. Below we show how conditioning can be thought of as reshaping a base distribution.

A simple example of a joint probability distribution p(x, y), shown as a contour map, along with its two marginal 1-D probability distributions, p(x) and p(y). The highest points of p(x, y) are at (x₁, y₁) and (x₂, y₂). The conditional distributions p(xy = y₁) and p(xy = y₂) are shown overlaid on the main plot.

Consider the figure above. Think of p(x) as a distribution we want to sample from (i.e., the images) and p(y) as conditioning information (i.e., the text dataset). These are the marginal distributions of a joint distribution p(x, y). Integrating p(x, y) over y recovers p(x), and vice versa.

Sampling from p(x), we are equally likely to get x₁ or x₂. However, we can condition on p(y = y₁) to obtain p(xy = y₁). You can think of this as taking a slice through p(x, y) at a given value of y. In this conditioned distribution, we are much more likely to sample at x₁ than x₂.

In practice, in order to condition on a text dataset, we need to convert the text into a numerical form. We can do this using large language model (LLM) embeddings that can be injected into the noise prediction model during training.

Embedding text with an LLM

In the glyffuser, our conditioning information is in the form of English text definitions. We have two requirements: 1) ML models prefer fixed-length vectors as input. 2) The numerical representation of our text must understand context — if we have the words “lithium” and “element” nearby, the meaning of “element” should be understood as “chemical element” rather than “heating element”. Both of these requirements can be met by using a pre-trained LLM.

The diagram below shows how an LLM converts text into fixed-length vectors. The text is first tokenized (LLMs break text into tokens, small chunks of characters, as their basic unit of interaction). Each token is converted into a base embedding, which is a fixed-length vector of the size of the LLM input. These vectors are then passed through the pre-trained LLM (here we use the encoder portion of Google’s T5 model), where they are imbued with additional contextual meaning. We end up with a array of n vectors of the same length d, i.e. a (n, d) sized tensor.

We can convert text to a numerical embedding imbued with contextual meaning using a pre-trained LLM.

Note: in some models, notably Dall-E, additional image-text alignment is performed using contrastive pretraining. Imagen seems to show that we can get away without doing this.

Training the diffusion model with text conditioning

The exact method that this embedding vector is injected into the model can vary. In Google’s Imagen model, for example, the embedding tensor is pooled (combined into a single vector in the embedding dimension) and added into the data as it passes through the noise prediction model; it is also included in a different way using cross-attention (a method of learning contextual information between sequences of tokens, most famously used in the transformer models that form the basis of LLMs like ChatGPT).

Conditioning information can be added via multiple different methods but the training loss remains the same.

In the glyffuser, we only use cross-attention to introduce this conditioning information. While a significant architectural change is required to introduce this additional information into the model, the loss function for our noise prediction model remains exactly the same.

Testing the conditioned diffusion model

Let’s do a simple test of the fully trained conditioned diffusion model. In the figure below, we try to denoise in a single step with the text prompt “Gold”. As touched upon in our interactive UMAP, Chinese characters often contain components known as radicals which can convey sound (phonetic radicals) or meaning (semantic radicals). A common semantic radical is derived from the character meaning “gold”, “金”, and is used in characters that are in some broad sense associated with gold or metals.

Even with a single sampling step, conditioning guides denoising towards the relevant regions of the probability distribution.

The figure shows that even though a single step is insufficient to approximate the denoising trajectory very well, we have moved into a region of our probability distribution with the “金” radical. This indicates that the text prompt is effectively guiding our sampling towards a region of the glyph probability distribution related to the meaning of the prompt. The animation below shows a 120 step denoising sequence for the same prompt, “Gold”. You can see that every generated glyph has either the 釒 or 钅 radical (the same radical in traditional and simplified Chinese, respectively).

Takeaway

Conditioning enables us to sample meaningful outputs from diffusion models.

Further remarks

I found that with the help of tutorials and existing libraries, it was possible to implement a working diffusion model despite not having a full understanding of what was going on under the hood. I think this is a good way to start learning and highly recommend Hugging Face’s tutorial on training a simple diffusion model using their diffusers Python library (which now includes my small bugfix!).

I’ve omitted some topics that are crucial to how production-grade diffusion models function, but are unnecessary for core understanding. One is the question of how to generate high resolution images. In our example, we did everything in pixel space, but this becomes very computationally expensive for large images. The general approach is to perform diffusion in a smaller space, then upscale it in a separate step. Methods include latent diffusion (used in Stable Diffusion) and cascaded super-resolution models (used in Imagen). Another topic is classifier-free guidance, a very elegant method for boosting the conditioning effect to give much better prompt adherence. I show the implementation in my previous post on the glyffuser and highly recommend this article if you want to learn more.

Further reading

A non-exhaustive list of materials I found very helpful:

Fun extras

Diffusion sampling using the DPMSolverSDEScheduler developed by Katherine Crowson and implemented in Hugging Face diffusers—note the smooth transition from noise to data.

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NextDecade contractor Bechtel awards ABB more Rio Grande LNG automation work

NextDecade Corp. contractor Bechtel Corp. has awarded ABB Ltd. additional integrated automation and electrical solution orders, extending its scope to Trains 4 and 5 of NextDecade’s 30-million tonne/year (tpy)  Rio Grande LNG (RGLNG) plant in Brownsville, Tex. The orders were booked in third- and fourth-quarters 2025 and build on ABB’s Phase 1 work with Trains 1-3, totaling 17 million tpy.  The scope for RGLNG Trains 4 and 5 includes deployment of an integrated control and safety system consisting of a distributed control system, emergency shutdown, and fire and gas systems. An electrical controls and monitoring system will provide unified visibility of the plant’s electrical infrastructure. These two overarching solutions will provide a common automation platform. ABB will also supply medium-voltage drives, synchronous motors, transformers, motor controllers and switchgear.  The orders also include local equipment buildings—two for Train 4 and one for Train 5— housing critical control and electrical systems in prefabricated modules to streamline installation and commissioning on site. The solutions being delivered to Bechtel use ABB adaptive execution, a methodology for capital projects designed to optimize engineering work and reduce delivery timelines. Phase 1 of RGLNG is under construction and expected to begin operations in 2027. Operations at Train 4 are expected in 2030 and Train 5 in 2031. ABB’s senior vice-president for the Americas, Scott McCay, confirmed to Oil & Gas Journal at CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston that the company is doing similar work through Tecnimont for Argent LNG’s planned 25-million tpy plant in Port Fourchon, La.; 10-million tpy Phase 1 and 15-million tpy Phase 2. Argent is targeting 2030 completion for its plant.

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Persistent oil flow imbalances drive Enverus to increase crude price forecast

Citing impacts from the Iran war, near-zero flows through the Strait of Hormuz, accelerating global stock draws, and expectations for a muted US production response despite higher prices, Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) raised its Brent crude oil price forecast. EIR now expects Brent to average $95/bbl for the remainder of 2026 and $100/bbl in 2027, reflecting what it described as a persistent global oil flow imbalance that continues to draw down inventories. “The world has an oil flow problem that is draining stocks,” said Al Salazar, director of research at EIR. “Whenever that oil flow problem is resolved, the world is left with low stocks. That’s what drives our oil price outlook higher for longer.” The outlook assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed for 3 months. EIR estimates that each month of constrained flows shifts the price outlook by about $10–15/bbl, underscoring the scale of the disruption and uncertainty around its duration. Despite West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices of $90–100/bbl, EIR does not expect US producers to materially increase output. The firm forecasts US liquids production growth of 370,000 b/d by end-2026 and 580,000 b/d by end-2027, citing drilling-to-production lags, industry consolidation, and continued capital discipline. Global oil demand growth for 2026 has been reduced to about 500,000 b/d from 1.0 million b/d as higher energy prices and anticipated supply disruptions weigh on economic activity. Cumulative global oil stock draws are estimated at roughly 1 billion bbl through 2027, with non-OECD inventories—particularly in Asia—absorbing nearly half of the impact. A 60-day Jones Act waiver may provide limited short-term US shipping flexibility, but EIR said the measure is unlikely to materially affect global oil prices given broader market forces.

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Equinor begins drilling $9-billion natural gas development project offshore Brazil

Equinor has started drilling the Raia natural gas project in the Campos basin presalt offshore Brazil. The $9-billion project is Equinor’s largest international investment, its largest project under execution, and marks the deepest water depth operation in its portfolio. The drilling campaign, which began Mar. 24 with the Valaris DS‑17 drillship, includes six wells in the Raia area 200 km offshore in water depths of around 2,900 m. The area is expected to hold recoverable natural gas and condensate reserves of over 1 billion boe. Raia’s development concept is based on production through wells connected to a 126,000-b/d floating production, storage and offloading unit (FPSO), which will treat produced oil/condensate and gas. Natural gas will be transported through a 200‑km pipeline from the FPSO to Cabiúnas, in the city of Macaé, Rio de Janeiro state. Once in operation, expected in 2028, the project will have the capacity to export up to 16 million cu m/day of natural gas, which could represent 15% of Brazil’s natural gas demand, the company said in a release Mar. 24. “While drilling takes place, integration and commissioning activities on the FPSO are progressing well putting us on track towards a safe start of operations in 2028,” said Geir Tungesvik, executive vice-president, projects, drilling and procurement, Equinor. The Raia project is operated by Equinor (35%), in partnership with Repsol Sinopec Brasil (35%) and Petrobras (30%).

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Woodfibre LNG receives additional modules as construction advances

Woodfibre LNG LP has received two major modules within a week for its under‑construction, 2.1‑million tonne/year (tpy) LNG export plant near Squamish, British Columbia, advancing construction to about 65% complete. The deliveries include the liquefaction module—the project’s heaviest and most critical process unit—and the powerhouse module, which will serve as the plant’s central power and control hub. The liquefaction module, delivered aboard the heavy cargo vessel Red Zed 1, is the 15th of 19 modules scheduled for installation at the site, the company said in a Mar. 24 release. Weighing about 10,847 metric tonnes and occupying a footprint roughly equivalent to a football field, it is among the largest modules fabricated for the project. Once installed and commissioned, the liquefaction module will cool natural gas to about –162°C, converting it into LNG for export. Shortly after the liquefaction module’s arrival, Woodfibre LNG received the powerhouse module, the 16th module delivered to site. Weighing more than 4,200 metric tonnes, the powerhouse module will function as a power and control system, receiving electricity from BC Hydro and managing and distributing power to the plant’s electric‑drive compressors. The Woodfibre LNG project is designed as the first LNG export plant to use electric‑drive motors for liquefaction, replacing conventional gas‑turbine‑driven compressors. The Siemens electric‑drive system will be powered by renewable hydroelectricity from BC Hydro, eliminating the largest operational source of greenhouse gas emissions typically associated with liquefaction, the company said. The project is being built near the community of Squamish on the traditional territory of the Sḵwx̱wú7mesh Úxwumixw (Squamish Nation) and is regulated in part by the Indigenous government.  All 19 modules are expected to arrive on site by spring 2026. Construction is scheduled for completion in 2027. Woodfibre LNG is owned by Woodfibre LNG Ltd. Partnership, which is 70% owned by Pacific Energy Corp.

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No joke: data centers are warming the planet

The researchers also made use of a database provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the authors pointed out contains more than 11,000 locations worldwide, of which 8,472 have been detected to dwell outside of highly dense urban areas. The latter locations were then used to “quantify the effect of data centers on the environment in terms of the LST gradient that could be measured on the areas surrounding each data center.” Asking the wrong question Asked if AI data centers are really causing local warming, or if this phenomenon is overstated, Sanchit Vir Gogia, chief analyst at Greyhound Research, said, “the signal is real, but the industry is asking the wrong question. The research shows a consistent rise in land surface temperature of around 2°C  following the establishment of large data centre facilities.” The debate, however, “has quickly shifted to causality: whether this is driven by operational heat from compute, or by land transformation during construction. That distinction matters scientifically, but it does not change the strategic implication.” Land surface temperature, said Gogia, is not the same as air temperature, and that gap will be used to challenge the findings. “But dismissing the signal on that basis would be a mistake,” he noted. “Data centers concentrate energy use, replace natural surfaces with heat-retaining materials, and continuously reject heat into the environment. Those are known drivers of thermal change.” He added, “the uncomfortable truth is this: Even if the exact mechanism is debated, the outcome aligns with first principles. Infrastructure at this scale alters its surroundings. The industry does not yet have a clean way to separate construction impact from operational impact, and that ambiguity makes the risk harder to model, not easier. This is not overstated, it is under-interpreted.” Location strategy must change But will the findings change

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Schneider Electric Maps the AI Data Center’s Next Design Era

The coming shift to higher-voltage DC That internal power challenge led Simonelli to one of the most consequential architectural topics in the interview: the likely transition toward higher-voltage DC distribution at very high rack densities. He framed it pragmatically. At current density levels, the industry knows how to get power into racks at 200 or 300 kilowatts. But as densities rise toward 400 kilowatts and beyond, conventional AC approaches start to run into physical limits. Too much cable, too much copper, too much conversion equipment, and too much space consumed by power infrastructure rather than GPUs. At that point, he said, higher-voltage DC becomes attractive not for philosophical reasons, but because it reduces current, shrinks conductor size, saves space, and leaves more room for revenue-generating compute. “It is again a paradigm shift,” Simonelli said of DC power at these densities. “But it won’t be everywhere.” That is probably right. The transition will not be universal, and the exact thresholds will evolve. But his underlying point is powerful. As rack densities climb, electrical architecture starts to matter not only for efficiency and reliability, but for physical space allocation inside the rack. Put differently, power distribution becomes a compute-enablement issue. Distance between accelerators matters, too. The closer GPUs and TPUs can be kept together, the better they perform. If power infrastructure can be compacted, more of the rack can be devoted to dense compute, improving the economics and performance of the system. That is a strong example of how AI is collapsing traditional boundaries between facility engineering and compute architecture. The two are no longer cleanly separable. Gas now, renewables over time On onsite power, Simonelli was refreshingly direct. If the goal is dispatchable onsite generation at the scale now being contemplated for AI facilities, he said, “there really isn’t an alternative

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SoftBank’s 10 GW Ohio Campus Marks a Turning Point for AI Infrastructure

Renewables can reduce carbon intensity, but they cannot independently meet the need for continuous, multi-gigawatt firm capacity without large-scale storage and balancing resources. For developers targeting guaranteed availability within this decade, natural gas remains the most readily deployable option, despite the political and environmental tradeoffs it introduces. AEP and the Cost Allocation Model If the generation plan explains the engineering logic, the AEP structure speaks to the political one. At the center is one of the most contested questions in the data center market: who pays for the transmission and grid upgrades required to serve large new loads? Utilities, regulators, consumer advocates, and large-load customers are increasingly divided on this issue. Data center developers point to economic development benefits, including jobs and tax revenue. Consumer advocates counter that residential ratepayers should not subsidize infrastructure built primarily to serve hyperscale demand. The Ohio arrangement is being positioned as a response to that conflict. DOE states that SB Energy and AEP Ohio are partnering on $4.2 billion in new transmission infrastructure, with SB Energy committing to fund those investments rather than passing costs through to ratepayers. AEP has echoed that position, indicating the structure is intended to avoid upward pressure on transmission rates for Ohio customers. Whether that outcome holds will depend on regulatory review and execution. But the structure itself is significant. It frames a model in which large-load developers directly fund the transmission infrastructure required to support their projects, rather than relying on broader cost recovery mechanisms. That makes the project more than a construction milestone. It positions it as a potential policy template. If validated, this approach could influence how utilities and regulators across the U.S. address cost allocation for AI-scale infrastructure, particularly as similar disputes intensify in constrained grid regions. Why 765-kV Transmission Signals Scale AEP says the

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Q1 Executive Roundtable Recap

Matt Vincent is Editor in Chief of Data Center Frontier, where he leads editorial strategy and coverage focused on the infrastructure powering cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and the digital economy. A veteran B2B technology journalist with more than two decades of experience, Vincent specializes in the intersection of data centers, power, cooling, and emerging AI-era infrastructure. Since assuming the EIC role in 2023, he has helped guide Data Center Frontier’s coverage of the industry’s transition into the gigawatt-scale AI era, with a focus on hyperscale development, behind-the-meter power strategies, liquid cooling architectures, and the evolving energy demands of high-density compute, while working closely with the Digital Infrastructure Group at Endeavor Business Media to expand the brand’s analytical and multimedia footprint. Vincent also hosts The Data Center Frontier Show podcast, where he interviews industry leaders across hyperscale, colocation, utilities, and the data center supply chain to examine the technologies and business models reshaping digital infrastructure. Since its inception he serves as Head of Content for the Data Center Frontier Trends Summit. Before becoming Editor in Chief, he served in multiple senior editorial roles across Endeavor Business Media’s digital infrastructure portfolio, with coverage spanning data centers and hyperscale infrastructure, structured cabling and networking, telecom and datacom, IP physical security, and wireless and Pro AV markets. He began his career in 2005 within PennWell’s Advanced Technology Division and later held senior editorial positions supporting brands such as Cabling Installation & Maintenance, Lightwave Online, Broadband Technology Report, and Smart Buildings Technology. Vincent is a frequent moderator, interviewer, and keynote speaker at industry events including the HPC Forum, where he delivers forward-looking analysis on how AI and high-performance computing are reshaping digital infrastructure. He graduated with honors from Indiana University Bloomington with a B.A. in English Literature and Creative Writing and lives in southern New Hampshire with

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Executive Roundtable: The AI Infrastructure Credibility Test

For the fourth installment of DCF’s Executive Roundtable for the First Quarter of 2026, we turn to a question that increasingly sits alongside power and capital as a defining constraint. Credibility. As AI-driven data center development accelerates, public scrutiny is rising in parallel. Communities, regulators, and policymakers are taking a closer look at the industry’s footprintin terms of its energy consumption, its land use, and its broader impact on local infrastructure and ratepayers. What was once a relatively low-profile sector has become a visible and, at times, contested presence in regional economies. This shift reflects the sheer scale of the current build cycle. Multi-hundred-megawatt and gigawatt campuses are no longer theoretical in any sense. They are actively being proposed and constructed across key markets. With that scale comes heightened expectations around transparency, accountability, and tangible community benefit. At the same time, the industry faces a more complex regulatory and political landscape. Questions around grid capacity, rate structures, environmental impact, and economic incentives are increasingly being debated in public forums, from state utility commissions to local zoning boards. In this environment, the ability to secure approvals is no longer assured, even in historically favorable markets. The concept of a “social license to operate” has therefore moved to the forefront. Beyond technical execution, developers and operators must now demonstrate that AI infrastructure can be deployed in a way that aligns with community priorities and delivers shared value. In this roundtable, our panel of industry leaders explores what will define that credibility in the years ahead and what the data center industry must do to sustain its momentum in an era of growing public scrutiny.

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International Data Center Day: Future Frontiers 2030-2070

In honor of this year’s International Data Center Day 2026 (Mar 25), Data Center Frontier presents a forward-looking vision of what the next era of digital infrastructure education—and imagination—could become. As the media partner of 7×24 Exchange, DCF is committed to elevating both the technical rigor and the human story behind the systems that power the AI age. What follows is not reportage, but a plausible future: a narrative exploration of how the next generation might learn to build, operate, and ultimately redefine data centers—from tabletop scale to lunar megacampuses. International Data Center Day, 2030 The Little Grid That Could They called it “Build the Cloud.” Which, to the adults in the room, sounded like branding. To the kids, it sounded literal. On a gymnasium floor somewhere in suburban Ohio (though it could just as easily have been Osaka, or Rotterdam, or Lagos) thirty-two teams of middle school students crouched over sprawling tabletop worlds the size of model train layouts. Only these weren’t towns with plastic trees and HO-scale diners. These were data centers. Tiny ones. Living ones. Or trying to be. Each team had been given the same kit six weeks earlier: modular rack frames no taller than a juice box, fiber spools thin as thread, micro solar arrays, a handful of millimeter-scale wind turbines, and a small fleet of programmable robotic “operators”—wheeled, jointed, blinking with LED status lights. The assignment had been deceptively simple: Design, build, and operate a self-sustaining data center campus. Then make it come alive. Now it was International Data Center Day, 2030, and the judging had begun. The Sound of Small Machines Thinking If you stood at the edge of the gym and closed your eyes, it didn’t sound like a science fair. It sounded like… something else. A low hum of micro-inverters stepping

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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