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A Visual Guide to How Diffusion Models Work

This article is aimed at those who want to understand exactly how Diffusion Models work, with no prior knowledge expected. I’ve tried to use illustrations wherever possible to provide visual intuitions on each part of these models. I’ve kept mathematical notation and equations to a minimum, and where they are necessary I’ve tried to define […]

This article is aimed at those who want to understand exactly how Diffusion Models work, with no prior knowledge expected. I’ve tried to use illustrations wherever possible to provide visual intuitions on each part of these models. I’ve kept mathematical notation and equations to a minimum, and where they are necessary I’ve tried to define and explain them as they occur.

Intro

I’ve framed this article around three main questions:

  • What exactly is it that diffusion models learn?
  • How and why do diffusion models work?
  • Once you’ve trained a model, how do you get useful stuff out of it?

The examples will be based on the glyffuser, a minimal text-to-image diffusion model that I previously implemented and wrote about. The architecture of this model is a standard text-to-image denoising diffusion model without any bells or whistles. It was trained to generate pictures of new “Chinese” glyphs from English definitions. Have a look at the picture below — even if you’re not familiar with Chinese writing, I hope you’ll agree that the generated glyphs look pretty similar to the real ones!

Random examples of glyffuser training data (left) and generated data (right).

What exactly is it that diffusion models learn?

Generative Ai models are often said to take a big pile of data and “learn” it. For text-to-image diffusion models, the data takes the form of pairs of images and descriptive text. But what exactly is it that we want the model to learn? First, let’s forget about the text for a moment and concentrate on what we are trying to generate: the images.

Probability distributions

Broadly, we can say that we want a generative AI model to learn the underlying probability distribution of the data. What does this mean? Consider the one-dimensional normal (Gaussian) distribution below, commonly written 𝒩(μ,σ²) and parameterized with mean μ = 0 and variance σ² = 1. The black curve below shows the probability density function. We can sample from it: drawing values such that over a large number of samples, the set of values reflects the underlying distribution. These days, we can simply write something like x = random.gauss(0, 1) in Python to sample from the standard normal distribution, although the computational sampling process itself is non-trivial!

Values sampled from an underlying distribution (here, the standard normal 𝒩(0,1)) can then be used to estimate the parameters of that distribution.

We could think of a set of numbers sampled from the above normal distribution as a simple dataset, like that shown as the orange histogram above. In this particular case, we can calculate the parameters of the underlying distribution using maximum likelihood estimation, i.e. by working out the mean and variance. The normal distribution estimated from the samples is shown by the dotted line above. To take some liberties with terminology, you might consider this as a simple example of “learning” an underlying probability distribution. We can also say that here we explicitly learnt the distribution, in contrast with the implicit methods that diffusion models use.

Conceptually, this is all that generative AI is doing — learning a distribution, then sampling from that distribution!

Data representations

What, then, does the underlying probability distribution of a more complex dataset look like, such as that of the image dataset we want to use to train our diffusion model?

First, we need to know what the representation of the data is. Generally, a machine learning (ML) model requires data inputs with a consistent representation, i.e. format. For the example above, it was simply numbers (scalars). For images, this representation is commonly a fixed-length vector.

The image dataset used for the glyffuser model is ~21,000 pictures of Chinese glyphs. The images are all the same size, 128 × 128 = 16384 pixels, and greyscale (single-channel color). Thus an obvious choice for the representation is a vector x of length 16384, where each element corresponds to the color of one pixel: x = (x,x₂,…,x₁₆₃₈₄). We can call the domain of all possible images for our dataset “pixel space”.

An example glyph with pixel values labelled (downsampled to 32 × 32 pixels for readability).

Dataset visualization

We make the assumption that our individual data samples, x, are actually sampled from an underlying probability distribution, q(x), in pixel space, much as the samples from our first example were sampled from an underlying normal distribution in 1-dimensional space. Note: the notation x q(x) is commonly used to mean: “the random variable x sampled from the probability distribution q(x).”

This distribution is clearly much more complex than a Gaussian and cannot be easily parameterized — we need to learn it with a ML model, which we’ll discuss later. First, let’s try to visualize the distribution to gain a better intution.

As humans find it difficult to see in more than 3 dimensions, we need to reduce the dimensionality of our data. A small digression on why this works: the manifold hypothesis posits that natural datasets lie on lower dimensional manifolds embedded in a higher dimensional space — think of a line embedded in a 2-D plane, or a plane embedded in 3-D space. We can use a dimensionality reduction technique such as UMAP to project our dataset from 16384 to 2 dimensions. The 2-D projection retains a lot of structure, consistent with the idea that our data lie on a lower dimensional manifold embedded in pixel space. In our UMAP, we see two large clusters corresponding to characters in which the components are arranged either horizontally (e.g. 明) or vertically (e.g. 草). An interactive version of the plot below with popups on each datapoint is linked here.

 Click here for an interactive version of this plot.

Let’s now use this low-dimensional UMAP dataset as a visual shorthand for our high-dimensional dataset. Remember, we assume that these individual points have been sampled from a continuous underlying probability distribution q(x). To get a sense of what this distribution might look like, we can apply a KDE (kernel density estimation) over the UMAP dataset. (Note: this is just an approximation for visualization purposes.)

This gives a sense of what q(x) should look like: clusters of glyphs correspond to high-probability regions of the distribution. The true q(x) lies in 16384 dimensions — this is the distribution we want to learn with our diffusion model.

We showed that for a simple distribution such as the 1-D Gaussian, we could calculate the parameters (mean and variance) from our data. However, for complex distributions such as images, we need to call on ML methods. Moreover, what we will find is that for diffusion models in practice, rather than parameterizing the distribution directly, they learn it implicitly through the process of learning how to transform noise into data over many steps.

Takeaway

The aim of generative AI such as diffusion models is to learn the complex probability distributions underlying their training data and then sample from these distributions.

How and why do diffusion models work?

Diffusion models have recently come into the spotlight as a particularly effective method for learning these probability distributions. They generate convincing images by starting from pure noise and gradually refining it. To whet your interest, have a look at the animation below that shows the denoising process generating 16 samples.

In this section we’ll only talk about the mechanics of how these models work but if you’re interested in how they arose from the broader context of generative models, have a look at the further reading section below.

What is “noise”?

Let’s first precisely define noise, since the term is thrown around a lot in the context of diffusion. In particular, we are talking about Gaussian noise: consider the samples we talked about in the section about probability distributions. You could think of each sample as an image of a single pixel of noise. An image that is “pure Gaussian noise”, then, is one in which each pixel value is sampled from an independent standard Gaussian distribution, 𝒩(0,1). For a pure noise image in the domain of our glyph dataset, this would be noise drawn from 16384 separate Gaussian distributions. You can see this in the previous animation. One thing to keep in mind is that we can choose the means of these noise distributions, i.e. center them, on specific values — the pixel values of an image, for instance.

For convenience, you’ll often find the noise distributions for image datasets written as a single multivariate distribution 𝒩(0,I) where I is the identity matrix, a covariance matrix with all diagonal entries equal to 1 and zeroes elsewhere. This is simply a compact notation for a set of multiple independent Gaussians — i.e. there are no correlations between the noise on different pixels. In the basic implementations of diffusion models, only uncorrelated (a.k.a. “isotropic”) noise is used. This article contains an excellent interactive introduction on multivariate Gaussians.

Diffusion process overview

Below is an adaptation of the somewhat-famous diagram from Ho et al.’s seminal paper “Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models” which gives an overview of the whole diffusion process:

Diagram of the diffusion process adapted from Ho et al. 2020. The glyph 锂, meaning “lithium”, is used as a representative sample from the dataset.

I found that there was a lot to unpack in this diagram and simply understanding what each component meant was very helpful, so let’s go through it and define everything step by step.

We previously used x q(x) to refer to our data. Here, we’ve added a subscript, xₜ, to denote timestep t indicating how many steps of “noising” have taken place. We refer to the samples noised a given timestep as x q(xₜ). x₀​ is clean data and xₜ (t = T) ∼ 𝒩(0,1) is pure noise.

We define a forward diffusion process whereby we corrupt samples with noise. This process is described by the distribution q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁). If we could access the hypothetical reverse process q(xₜ₋₁|xₜ), we could generate samples from noise. As we cannot access it directly because we would need to know x₀​, we use ML to learn the parameters, θ, of a model of this process, 𝑝θ(𝑥ₜ₋₁∣𝑥ₜ). (That should be p subscript θ but medium cannot render it.)

In the following sections we go into detail on how the forward and reverse diffusion processes work.

Forward diffusion, or “noising”

Used as a verb, “noising” an image refers to applying a transformation that moves it towards pure noise by scaling down its pixel values toward 0 while adding proportional Gaussian noise. Mathematically, this transformation is a multivariate Gaussian distribution centered on the pixel values of the preceding image.

In the forward diffusion process, this noising distribution is written as q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁) where the vertical bar symbol “|” is read as “given” or “conditional on”, to indicate the pixel means are passed forward from q(xₜ₋₁) At t = T where T is a large number (commonly 1000) we aim to end up with images of pure noise (which, somewhat confusingly, is also a Gaussian distribution, as discussed previously).

The marginal distributions q(xₜ) represent the distributions that have accumulated the effects of all the previous noising steps (marginalization refers to integration over all possible conditions, which recovers the unconditioned distribution).

Since the conditional distributions are Gaussian, what about their variances? They are determined by a variance schedule that maps timesteps to variance values. Initially, an empirically determined schedule of linearly increasing values from 0.0001 to 0.02 over 1000 steps was presented in Ho et al. Later research by Nichol & Dhariwal suggested an improved cosine schedule. They state that a schedule is most effective when the rate of information destruction through noising is relatively even per step throughout the whole noising process.

Forward diffusion intuition

As we encounter Gaussian distributions both as pure noise q(xₜ, t = T) and as the noising distribution q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁), I’ll try to draw the distinction by giving a visual intuition of the distribution for a single noising step, q(x₁∣x₀), for some arbitrary, structured 2-dimensional data:

Each noising step q(xₜ|xₜ₋₁) is a Gaussian distribution conditioned on the previous step.

The distribution q(x₁∣x₀) is Gaussian, centered around each point in x₀, shown in blue. Several example points x₀⁽ⁱ⁾ are picked to illustrate this, with q(x₁∣x₀ = x₀⁽ⁱ⁾) shown in orange.

In practice, the main usage of these distributions is to generate specific instances of noised samples for training (discussed further below). We can calculate the parameters of the noising distributions at any timestep t directly from the variance schedule, as the chain of Gaussians is itself also Gaussian. This is very convenient, as we don’t need to perform noising sequentially—for any given starting data x₀⁽ⁱ⁾, we can calculate the noised sample xₜ⁽ⁱ⁾ by sampling from q(xₜ∣x₀ = x₀⁽ⁱ⁾) directly.

Forward diffusion visualization

Let’s now return to our glyph dataset (once again using the UMAP visualization as a visual shorthand). The top row of the figure below shows our dataset sampled from distributions noised to various timesteps: xₜ ∼ q(xₜ). As we increase the number of noising steps, you can see that the dataset begins to resemble pure Gaussian noise. The bottom row visualizes the underlying probability distribution q(xₜ).

The dataset xₜ (above) sampled from its probability distribution q(xₜ) (below) at different noising timesteps.

Reverse diffusion overview

It follows that if we knew the reverse distributions q(xₜ₋₁∣xₜ), we could repeatedly subtract a small amount of noise, starting from a pure noise sample xₜ at t = T to arrive at a data sample x₀ ∼ q(x₀). In practice, however, we cannot access these distributions without knowing x₀ beforehand. Intuitively, it’s easy to make a known image much noisier, but given a very noisy image, it’s much harder to guess what the original image was.

So what are we to do? Since we have a large amount of data, we can train an ML model to accurately guess the original image that any given noisy image came from. Specifically, we learn the parameters θ of an ML model that approximates the reverse noising distributions, (xₜ₋₁ ∣ xₜ) for t = 0, …, T. In practice, this is embodied in a single noise prediction model trained over many different samples and timesteps. This allows it to denoise any given input, as shown in the figure below.

The ML model predicts added noise at any given timestep t.

Next, let’s go over how this noise prediction model is implemented and trained in practice.

How the model is implemented

First, we define the ML model — generally a deep neural network of some sort — that will act as our noise prediction model. This is what does the heavy lifting! In practice, any ML model that inputs and outputs data of the correct size can be used; the U-net, an architecture particularly suited to learning images, is what we use here and frequently chosen in practice. More recent models also use vision transformers.

We use the U-net architecture (Ronneberger et al. 2015) for our ML noise prediction model. We train the model by minimizing the difference between predicted and actual noise.

Then we run the training loop depicted in the figure above:

  • We take a random image from our dataset and noise it to a random timestep tt. (In practice, we speed things up by doing many examples in parallel!)
  • We feed the noised image into the ML model and train it to predict the (known to us) noise in the image. We also perform timestep conditioning by feeding the model a timestep embedding, a high-dimensional unique representation of the timestep, so that the model can distinguish between timesteps. This can be a vector the same size as our image directly added to the input (see here for a discussion of how this is implemented).
  • The model “learns” by minimizing the value of a loss function, some measure of the difference between the predicted and actual noise. The mean square error (the mean of the squares of the pixel-wise difference between the predicted and actual noise) is used in our case.
  • Repeat until the model is well trained.

Note: A neural network is essentially a function with a huge number of parameters (on the order of 10for the glyffuser). Neural network ML models are trained by iteratively updating their parameters using backpropagation to minimize a given loss function over many training data examples. This is an excellent introduction. These parameters effectively store the network’s “knowledge”.

A noise prediction model trained in this way eventually sees many different combinations of timesteps and data examples. The glyffuser, for example, was trained over 100 epochs (runs through the whole data set), so it saw around 2 million data samples. Through this process, the model implicity learns the reverse diffusion distributions over the entire dataset at all different timesteps. This allows the model to sample the underlying distribution q(x₀) by stepwise denoising starting from pure noise. Put another way, given an image noised to any given level, the model can predict how to reduce the noise based on its guess of what the original image. By doing this repeatedly, updating its guess of the original image each time, the model can transform any noise to a sample that lies in a high-probability region of the underlying data distribution.

Reverse diffusion in practice

We can now revisit this video of the glyffuser denoising process. Recall a large number of steps from sample to noise e.g. T = 1000 is used during training to make the noise-to-sample trajectory very easy for the model to learn, as changes between steps will be small. Does that mean we need to run 1000 denoising steps every time we want to generate a sample?

Luckily, this is not the case. Essentially, we can run the single-step noise prediction but then rescale it to any given step, although it might not be very good if the gap is too large! This allows us to approximate the full sampling trajectory with fewer steps. The video above uses 120 steps, for instance (most implementations will allow the user to set the number of sampling steps).

Recall that predicting the noise at a given step is equivalent to predicting the original image x₀, and that we can access the equation for any noised image deterministically using only the variance schedule and x₀. Thus, we can calculate xₜ₋ₖ based on any denoising step. The closer the steps are, the better the approximation will be.

Too few steps, however, and the results become worse as the steps become too large for the model to effectively approximate the denoising trajectory. If we only use 5 sampling steps, for example, the sampled characters don’t look very convincing at all:

There is then a whole literature on more advanced sampling methods beyond what we’ve discussed so far, allowing effective sampling with much fewer steps. These often reframe the sampling as a differential equation to be solved deterministically, giving an eerie quality to the sampling videos — I’ve included one at the end if you’re interested. In production-level models, these are usually preferred over the simple method discussed here, but the basic principle of deducing the noise-to-sample trajectory is the same. A full discussion is beyond the scope of this article but see e.g. this paper and its corresponding implementation in the Hugging Face diffusers library for more information.

Alternative intuition from score function

To me, it was still not 100% clear why training the model on noise prediction generalises so well. I found that an alternative interpretation of diffusion models known as “score-based modeling” filled some of the gaps in intuition (for more information, refer to Yang Song’s definitive article on the topic.)

The dataset xₜ sampled from its probability distribution q(xₜ) at different noising timesteps; below, we add the score function ∇ₓ log q(xₜ).

I try to give a visual intuition in the bottom row of the figure above: essentially, learning the noise in our diffusion model is equivalent (to a constant factor) to learning the score function, which is the gradient of the log of the probability distribution: ∇ₓ log q(x). As a gradient, the score function represents a vector field with vectors pointing towards the regions of highest probability density. Subtracting the noise at each step is then equivalent to moving following the directions in this vector field towards regions of high probability density.

As long as there is some signal, the score function effectively guides sampling, but in regions of low probability it tends towards zero as there is little to no gradient to follow. Using many steps to cover different noise levels allows us to avoid this, as we smear out the gradient field at high noise levels, allowing sampling to converge even if we start from low probability density regions of the distribution. The figure shows that as the noise level is increased, more of the domain is covered by the score function vector field.

Summary

  • The aim of diffusion models is learn the underlying probability distribution of a dataset and then be able to sample from it. This requires forward and reverse diffusion (noising) processes.
  • The forward noising process takes samples from our dataset and gradually adds Gaussian noise (pushes them off the data manifold). This forward process is computationally efficient because any level of noise can be added in closed form a single step.
  • The reverse noising process is challenging because we need to predict how to remove the noise at each step without knowing the original data point in advance. We train a ML model to do this by giving it many examples of data noised at different timesteps.
  • Using very small steps in the forward noising process makes it easier for the model to learn to reverse these steps, as the changes are small.
  • By applying the reverse noising process iteratively, the model refines noisy samples step by step, eventually producing a realistic data point (one that lies on the data manifold).

Takeaway

Diffusion models are a powerful framework for learning complex data distributions. The distributions are learnt implicitly by modelling a sequential denoising process. This process can then be used to generate samples similar to those in the training distribution.

Once you’ve trained a model, how do you get useful stuff out of it?

Earlier uses of generative AI such as “This Person Does Not Exist” (ca. 2019) made waves simply because it was the first time most people had seen AI-generated photorealistic human faces. A generative adversarial network or “GAN” was used in that case, but the principle remains the same: the model implicitly learnt a underlying data distribution — in that case, human faces — then sampled from it. So far, our glyffuser model does a similar thing: it samples randomly from the distribution of Chinese glyphs.

The question then arises: can we do something more useful than just sample randomly? You’ve likely already encountered text-to-image models such as Dall-E. They are able to incorporate extra meaning from text prompts into the diffusion process — this in known as conditioning. Likewise, diffusion models for scientific scientific applications like protein (e.g. Chroma, RFdiffusion, AlphaFold3) or inorganic crystal structure generation (e.g. MatterGen) become much more useful if can be conditioned to generate samples with desirable properties such as a specific symmetry, bulk modulus, or band gap.

Conditional distributions

We can consider conditioning as a way to guide the diffusion sampling process towards particular regions of our probability distribution. We mentioned conditional distributions in the context of forward diffusion. Below we show how conditioning can be thought of as reshaping a base distribution.

A simple example of a joint probability distribution p(x, y), shown as a contour map, along with its two marginal 1-D probability distributions, p(x) and p(y). The highest points of p(x, y) are at (x₁, y₁) and (x₂, y₂). The conditional distributions p(xy = y₁) and p(xy = y₂) are shown overlaid on the main plot.

Consider the figure above. Think of p(x) as a distribution we want to sample from (i.e., the images) and p(y) as conditioning information (i.e., the text dataset). These are the marginal distributions of a joint distribution p(x, y). Integrating p(x, y) over y recovers p(x), and vice versa.

Sampling from p(x), we are equally likely to get x₁ or x₂. However, we can condition on p(y = y₁) to obtain p(xy = y₁). You can think of this as taking a slice through p(x, y) at a given value of y. In this conditioned distribution, we are much more likely to sample at x₁ than x₂.

In practice, in order to condition on a text dataset, we need to convert the text into a numerical form. We can do this using large language model (LLM) embeddings that can be injected into the noise prediction model during training.

Embedding text with an LLM

In the glyffuser, our conditioning information is in the form of English text definitions. We have two requirements: 1) ML models prefer fixed-length vectors as input. 2) The numerical representation of our text must understand context — if we have the words “lithium” and “element” nearby, the meaning of “element” should be understood as “chemical element” rather than “heating element”. Both of these requirements can be met by using a pre-trained LLM.

The diagram below shows how an LLM converts text into fixed-length vectors. The text is first tokenized (LLMs break text into tokens, small chunks of characters, as their basic unit of interaction). Each token is converted into a base embedding, which is a fixed-length vector of the size of the LLM input. These vectors are then passed through the pre-trained LLM (here we use the encoder portion of Google’s T5 model), where they are imbued with additional contextual meaning. We end up with a array of n vectors of the same length d, i.e. a (n, d) sized tensor.

We can convert text to a numerical embedding imbued with contextual meaning using a pre-trained LLM.

Note: in some models, notably Dall-E, additional image-text alignment is performed using contrastive pretraining. Imagen seems to show that we can get away without doing this.

Training the diffusion model with text conditioning

The exact method that this embedding vector is injected into the model can vary. In Google’s Imagen model, for example, the embedding tensor is pooled (combined into a single vector in the embedding dimension) and added into the data as it passes through the noise prediction model; it is also included in a different way using cross-attention (a method of learning contextual information between sequences of tokens, most famously used in the transformer models that form the basis of LLMs like ChatGPT).

Conditioning information can be added via multiple different methods but the training loss remains the same.

In the glyffuser, we only use cross-attention to introduce this conditioning information. While a significant architectural change is required to introduce this additional information into the model, the loss function for our noise prediction model remains exactly the same.

Testing the conditioned diffusion model

Let’s do a simple test of the fully trained conditioned diffusion model. In the figure below, we try to denoise in a single step with the text prompt “Gold”. As touched upon in our interactive UMAP, Chinese characters often contain components known as radicals which can convey sound (phonetic radicals) or meaning (semantic radicals). A common semantic radical is derived from the character meaning “gold”, “金”, and is used in characters that are in some broad sense associated with gold or metals.

Even with a single sampling step, conditioning guides denoising towards the relevant regions of the probability distribution.

The figure shows that even though a single step is insufficient to approximate the denoising trajectory very well, we have moved into a region of our probability distribution with the “金” radical. This indicates that the text prompt is effectively guiding our sampling towards a region of the glyph probability distribution related to the meaning of the prompt. The animation below shows a 120 step denoising sequence for the same prompt, “Gold”. You can see that every generated glyph has either the 釒 or 钅 radical (the same radical in traditional and simplified Chinese, respectively).

Takeaway

Conditioning enables us to sample meaningful outputs from diffusion models.

Further remarks

I found that with the help of tutorials and existing libraries, it was possible to implement a working diffusion model despite not having a full understanding of what was going on under the hood. I think this is a good way to start learning and highly recommend Hugging Face’s tutorial on training a simple diffusion model using their diffusers Python library (which now includes my small bugfix!).

I’ve omitted some topics that are crucial to how production-grade diffusion models function, but are unnecessary for core understanding. One is the question of how to generate high resolution images. In our example, we did everything in pixel space, but this becomes very computationally expensive for large images. The general approach is to perform diffusion in a smaller space, then upscale it in a separate step. Methods include latent diffusion (used in Stable Diffusion) and cascaded super-resolution models (used in Imagen). Another topic is classifier-free guidance, a very elegant method for boosting the conditioning effect to give much better prompt adherence. I show the implementation in my previous post on the glyffuser and highly recommend this article if you want to learn more.

Further reading

A non-exhaustive list of materials I found very helpful:

Fun extras

Diffusion sampling using the DPMSolverSDEScheduler developed by Katherine Crowson and implemented in Hugging Face diffusers—note the smooth transition from noise to data.

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Western Midstream Secures New Deals with Occidental,ConocoPhillips

Western Midstream Partners LP (WES) announced Tuesday it has amended its natural gas gathering and processing contracts in the Delaware Basin with Occidental Petroleum Corp and expanded its partnership with ConocoPhillips in the same basin. The new agreements with ConocoPhillips and Occidental advance WES’ transition to fixed-fee arrangements in the maturing basin, The Woodlands, Texas-based company said in a statement on its website. The previous agreement with Occidental already provided for a transition to a fixed-fee structure; the new agreement speeds up that transition, according to WES. Houston, Texas-based oil, gas and chemicals producer Occidental agreed to reduce its ownership in WES from about 42 percent to around 40 percent under the renegotiated gathering and processing contracts, “further positioning WES as a standalone midstream enterprise”, WES said. “Following this amendment, approximately nine percent of WES’ total revenue will remain subject to cost-of-service rates, with approximately one percent of total revenue subject to cost-of-service rates expiring in the late 2020s”, WES said. “The remaining cost-of-service rate provisions extend into the mid-to-late 2030s and include provisions to convert to fixed-fee structures at that time. “All significant fixed-fee contracts with Occidental, including the contracts being amended, are effective through the mid-to-late 2030s”. The new gas gathering contract provides “volumetric protection via substantial minimum volume commitments (MVCs) through the original cost-of-service term, and from that point forward, the existing acreage dedication and fixed-fee structure continues through the duration of the contract”, WES added. The new gas processing contract “continues to provide volumetric protection via MVCs through 2035”, WES said. As part of the renegotiated contracts, Occidental will surrender to WES 15.3 million common units currently owned by Occidental. The volume represents around $610 million of limited partnership interests, according to WES. “This transfer was structured on terms intended to represent a value-neutral exchange for the economic concessions reflected in

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Why Are USA NatGas Prices Rising Today?

U.S. natural gas prices are rising today due to a combination of weather risk, production softness, and positioning, rather than any single structural shift. That’s what Ole R. Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), told Rigzone in an exclusive interview on Wednesday. “First, the weather premium has kicked in hard,” Hvalbye said. “Forecasts now show temperatures in the Lower-48 turning well below normal from around January 23 and extending into early February, particularly across the eastern half of the United States,” he added. “That directly lifts heating demand expectations at a time of year when the market is already sensitive(!). As a result, Henry Hub has surged from … [around] $3 per MMBtu [million British thermal units] last week to nearly $5 per MMBtu intraday today!” he noted. “Second, supply has tightened at the margin. Lower-48 dry gas production has dipped to around 110.5 Bcfpd [billion cubic feet per day], down from over 112 Bcfpd earlier this week, partly reflecting cold-weather disruptions,” Hvalbye continued. “At the same time, LNG feedgas demand remains elevated at just over 18 Bcfpd, even though flows at Sabine Pass eased slightly today, partly offset by higher intake at Elba Island,” he stated. “Third, positioning and short covering are amplifying the move,” Hvalbye highlighted. The SEB commodities analyst told Rigzone that trading volumes in Henry Hub futures hit a record high earlier this week and added that today’s rally has been pushed by hedge funds covering short positions built up during the recent sell-off. “That adds momentum once prices start moving,” he pointed out. Looking at the demand side, Hvalbye told Rigzone that U.S. gas consumption “has eased back toward ~108 Bcfpd from very high cold-weather levels earlier this week” but added that “that hasn’t been enough to offset the weather risk

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EU Hydrogen Matchmaking Platform Opens for Buyer Expressions of Interest

The European Commission on Tuesday made the first call for buyer expressions of interest for hydrogen supply offers under a matchmaking platform launched last year. In a call to suppliers that closed earlier this month, European and international companies placed offers from over 260 projects, the Commission’s Directorate-General for Energy said in an online statement. Buyers now have until March 20, 2026 to indicate interest in the offers, according to the statement. “As part of the EU Energy and Raw Materials Platform, the Hydrogen Mechanism connects potential off-takers in Europe with suppliers of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen or derivatives, including ammonia, methanol, eMethane and electro-sustainable aviation fuel”, the Directorate-General said. “Hydrogen plays an important role in decarbonizing industrial processes and industries for which reducing carbon emissions is both urgent and hard to achieve”, it added. “At the same time, it can strengthen the competitiveness of Europe’s industry and leverage the EU market towards more security of supply, diversification and decarbonization”. European Energy and Housing Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said, “The EU’s Hydrogen Mechanism is a new, innovative tool to help develop the market. With strong interest shown from suppliers across Europe and beyond, the initiative is off to a very promising start”. The broader European Union Energy and Raw Materials Platform lets buyers in the 27-member bloc offer demand for biomethane, hydrogen, natural gas and raw materials. The online platform seeks to give EU companies cost-effective and efficient access to such commodities by enabling negotiations with competing suppliers, according to the Commission. The Hydrogen Mechanism will operate until 2029 under the European Hydrogen Bank, as specified under the EU’s “Regulation on the Internal Markets for Renewable Gas, Natural Gas and Hydrogen”. The Hydrogen Bank is an EU Innovation Fund financing platform to scale up the renewable hydrogen value chain. The platform’s user

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Bulgaria Acquires 10 Percent in Han Asparuh Block

OMV Petrom SA and NewMed Energy LP have signed a deal to sell 10 percent in the Han Asparuh exploration block on Bulgaria’s side of the Black Sea to state-owned Bulgarian Energy Holding EAD (BEH) following a government order. The Bulgarian parliament had directed the Energy Ministry to have up to 20 percent of the license transferred to a government-owned corporation, NewMed Energy said in a stock filing. Operator OMV Petrom, an integrated energy company with investments from Austria’s state-backed OMV AG and the Romanian government, and equal co-owner NewMed Energy, an Israeli natural gas-focused explorer and producer, have now agreed to sell five percent each to BEH, according to the regulatory disclosure. The Bulgarian government still needs to approve the sale agreement and the companies need to amend the “joint operating agreement” for Han Asparuh before the sale could be completed, NewMed Energy said. Under the sale agreement, “the parties agreed to work jointly vis-à-vis the Bulgarian government and the Bulgarian Ministry of Energy in connection with amendments to the ordinance for determining the concession royalty payments for the production of underground resources and extension of the period of the appraisal drillings in the project to two years in lieu of one year”, NewMed Energy said. “It is noted in this context that on 8 December 2025, the Bulgarian Ministry of Energy released a draft of new regulations for determining royalty payments to the Bulgarian government, which are determined by multiplying the economic value of annual production by the royalty rate payable to the government”. “It is further proposed to establish in the draft regulations a minimum annual royalty payment obligation”, NewMed Energy added. BEH has agreed to pay NewMed Energy and OMV Petrom its proportionate share of the cost of drilling preparations, NewMed Energy said. A two-well campaign

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CyrusOne Hones AI-Era Data Center Strategy for Power, Pace, and Reliability

In the second half of 2025, CyrusOne was racing to secure buildable power and faster time-to-market capacity for AI-era customers. At the same time, its reputation for mission-critical reliability took a very public hit when a disruption at a CyrusOne facility helped knock CME trading offline. The incident forced the company into an unusually open conversation about redundancy, cooling systems, and operational discipline: systems that are meant to disappear in normal operation, and dominate the story when they malfunction. From Projects to a Playbook Which projects, missteps, and strategic moves from 2025 are now shaping how CyrusOne enters 2026? Nowhere is that view clearer than in Texas. There, CyrusOne has been leaning hard into a “power + land + interconnect” model: treating deliverable power and grid position as part of the product, not just a prerequisite. If you map the company’s announcements since late July, Texas reveals the playbook. Secure power, secure substations and grid position, then build multi-phase campuses designed to scale quickly as demand materializes. The Calpine “Powered Land” Deal: From 190 MW to 400 MW in Three Months On July 30, 2025, CyrusOne and Calpine announced a 190-MW agreement tied to a hyperscale campus (DFW10) adjacent to Calpine’s Thad Hill Energy Center in Bosque County, Texas. The structure bundled power, grid connection, and land into a single development package, with CyrusOne saying the site was already under construction and targeting operation by Q4 2026. Just three months later, on November 3–4, the partners announced a second phase, adding 210 MW and taking the campus to 400 MW. The update emphasized coordination to support grid reliability during scarcity; such curtailment and operational-coordination concepts are becoming table stakes for ERCOT-scale megaprojects. Together, the two announcements show CyrusOne placing a large bet on an emerging model: power-ready campuses, or “powered

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Forrester study quantifies benefits of Cisco Intersight

If IT groups are to be the strategic business partners their companies need, they require solutions that can improve infrastructure life cycle management in the age of artificial intelligence (AI) and heightened security threats. To quantify the value of such solutions, Cisco recently commissioned Forrester Consulting to conduct a Total Economic Impact™ analysis of Cisco Intersight. The comprehensive study found that for a composite organization, Intersight delivered 192% return on investment (ROI) and a payback period of less than six months, along with significant tangible benefits to IT and businesses. Cisco Intersight overview Cisco Intersight is a cloud-native IT operations platform for infrastructure life cycle management. It provides IT teams with comprehensive visibility, control, and automation capabilities for Cisco’s portfolio of compute solutions for data centers, colocation facilities, and edge environments based on the Cisco Unified Computing System (Cisco UCS). Intersight also integrates with leading operating systems, storage providers, hypervisors, and third-party IT service management and security tools. Intersight’s unified, policy-driven approach to infrastructure management helps IT groups automate numerous tasks and, as Forrester found, free up time to dedicate to strategic projects. Forrester study quantifies the benefits of Cisco Intersight  A composite organization using Cisco Intersight achieved:192% ROI and payback in less than six months$3.3M net present value over three years$2.7M from improved uptime and resilience 50% reduction in mean time to resolution $1.7M from increased IT productivity$267K benefit from decreased time to value due to faster project execution and earlier return on infrastructure investments Forrester Total Economic Impact study findings The analyst firm conducted detailed interviews with IT decision-makers and Intersight users at six organizations, from which it created one composite organization: a multinational technology-driven company with $10 billion in annual revenue, 120 branch locations, and a team of six engineers managing its 1,000 servers deployed in several

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SoftBank launches software stack for AI data center operations

Addressing enterprise challenges The software provides two main services, according to SoftBank. The Kubernetes-as-a-Service component automates the stack from BIOS and RAID settings through the OS, GPU drivers, networking, Kubernetes controllers, and storage, the company said. It reconfigures physical connectivity using Nvidia NVLink and memory allocation as users create, update, or delete clusters, according to the announcement. The system allocates nodes based on GPU proximity and NVLink domain configuration to reduce latency, SoftBank said. Enterprises currently face complex GPU cluster provisioning, Kubernetes lifecycle management, inference scaling, and infrastructure tuning challenges that require deep expertise, according to Dai. SoftBank’s automated approach addresses these pain points by handling BIOS-to-Kubernetes configuration, optimizing GPU interconnects, and abstracting inference into API-based services, he said. This allows teams to focus on model development rather than infrastructure maintenance, Dai said. The Inference-as-a-Service component lets users deploy inference services by selecting large language models without configuring Kubernetes or underlying infrastructure, according to the company. It provides OpenAI-compatible APIs and scales across multiple nodes on platforms including the GB200 NVL72, SoftBank said. The software includes tenant isolation through encrypted communications, automated system monitoring and failover, and APIs for connecting to portal, customer management, and billing systems, according to the announcement.

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OpenAI shifts AI data center strategy toward power-first design

The shift to ‘energy sovereignty’  Analysts say the move reflects a fundamental shift in data center strategy, moving from “fiber-first” to “power-first” site selection. “Historically, data centers were built near internet exchange points and urban centers to minimize latency,” said Ashish Banerjee, senior principal analyst at Gartner. “However, as AI training requirements reach the gigawatt scale, OpenAI is signaling that they will prioritize regions with ‘energy sovereignty’, places where they can build proprietary generation and transmission, rather than fighting for scraps on an overtaxed public grid.” For network architecture, this means a massive expansion of the “middle mile.” By placing these behemoth data centers in energy-rich but remote locations, the industry will have to invest heavily in long-haul, high-capacity dark fiber to connect these “power islands” back to the edge. “We should expect a bifurcated network: a massive, centralized core for ‘cold’ model training located in the wilderness, and a highly distributed edge for ‘hot’ real-time inference located near the users,” Banerjee added. Manish Rawat, a semiconductor analyst at TechInsights, also noted that the benefits may come at the cost of greater architectural complexity. “On the network side, this pushes architectures toward fewer mega-hubs and more regionally distributed inference and training clusters, connected via high-capacity backbone links,” Rawat said. “The trade-off is higher upfront capex but greater control over scalability timelines, reducing dependence on slow-moving utility upgrades.”

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CleanArc’s Virginia Hyperscale Bet Meets the Era of Pay-Your-Way Power

What CleanArc’s Project Really Signals About Scaling in Virginia The more important story is what the project signals about how developers believe they can still scale in Virginia at hyperscale magnitude. To wit: 1) The campus is sized like a grid project, not a real estate project At 900 MW, CleanArc is not simply building a few facilities. It is effectively planning a utility-interface program that will require staged substation, transmission, and interconnection work over many years. The company describes the campus as a “flagship” designed for scalable demand and sustainability-focused procurement. Power delivery is planned in three 300 MW phases: the first targeted for 2027, the second for 2030, and the final block sometime between 2033 and 2035. That scale changes what “site selection” really means. For projects of this magnitude, the differentiator is no longer “Can we entitle buildings?” but “Can we secure a credible path for large power blocks, with predictable commercial terms, while regulators are rewriting the rules?” 2) It’s being marketed as sustainability-forward in a market that increasingly requires it CleanArc frames the campus as aligned with sustainability-focused infrastructure: a posture that is no longer optional for hyperscale procurement teams. That does not mean the grid power itself is automatically carbon-free. It means the campus is being positioned to support the modern contracting stack, involving renewables, clean-energy attributes, and related structures, while still delivering what hyperscalers buy first: capacity, reliability, and delivery certainty. 3) The timing is strategic as Virginia tightens around very large load CleanArc is launching its flagship in the nation’s premier data center corridor at the same moment Virginia has moved to formalize a large-customer category that explicitly includes data centers. The implication is not that Virginia has become anti-data center. It is that the state is entering a phase where it

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xAI’s AI Factories: From Colossus to MACROHARDRR in the Gigawatt Era

Colossus: The Prototype For much of the past year, xAI’s infrastructure story did not unfold across a portfolio of sites. It unfolded inside a single building in Memphis, where the company first tested what an “AI factory” actually looks like in physical form. That building had a name that matched the ambition: Colossus. The Memphis-area facility, carved out of a vacant Electrolux factory, became shorthand for a new kind of AI build: fast, dense, liquid-cooled, and powered on a schedule that often ran ahead of the grid. It was an “AI factory” in the literal sense: not a cathedral of architecture, but a machine for turning electricity into tokens. Colossus began as an exercise in speed. xAI took over a dormant industrial building in Southwest Memphis and turned it into an AI training plant in months, not years. The company has said the first major system was built in about 122 days, and then doubled in roughly 92 more, reaching around 200,000 GPUs. Those numbers matter less for their bravado than for what they reveal about method. Colossus was never meant to be bespoke. It was meant to be repeatable. High-density GPU servers, liquid cooling at the rack, integrated CDUs, and large-scale Ethernet networking formed a standardized building block. The rack, not the room, became the unit of design. Liquid cooling was not treated as a novelty. It was treated as a prerequisite. By pushing heat removal down to the rack, xAI avoided having to reinvent the data hall every time density rose. The building became a container; the rack became the machine. That design logic, e.g. industrial shell plus standardized AI rack, has quietly become the template for everything that followed. Power: Where Speed Met Reality What slowed the story was not compute, cooling, or networking. It was power.

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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