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Analyst Looks at Natural Gas Price Moves

In a natural gas focused EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Friday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, warned that late December heating demand “continues to disintegrate”. “Yesterday’s 177 billion cubic foot withdrawal did little to stop the massive sell-off in natural gas, with the NYMEX front-month […]

In a natural gas focused EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Friday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, warned that late December heating demand “continues to disintegrate”.

“Yesterday’s 177 billion cubic foot withdrawal did little to stop the massive sell-off in natural gas, with the NYMEX front-month plummeting to close at a seven-week low of $4.231 [per million British thermal units (MMBtu)],” Rubin said in the report.

“Although a frigid early December may erode storage surpluses over the next two EIA [U.S. Energy Information Administration] reports, the market is focused on eroding late-December heating demand,” he added.

In the report, Rubin noted that the week leading into Christmas “shed another seven gHDDs over the past 24 hours, with exceptionally mild weather anticipated across the country in the back half of the month”.

“Daily demand may still surge into Sunday’s peak – but is expected to plunge 26 billion cubic feet per day [Bcfpd] into mid-next week, likely delivering a blow to physical gas prices,” he added.

Rubin went on to warn in the report that technicals also appear weak, “with prices falling below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages”.

“Shorts may take profits off the table ahead of the weekend, and medium to long term fundamentals appear more supportive than recent price action suggests, but momentum is bearish and this week’s 133 billion cubic foot loss of weather-driven demand will leave an enduring mark on NYMEX futures,” he said.

This EBW report highlighted that the January natural gas contract closed at $4.231 per MMBtu on Thursday. It outlined that this was down 36.4 cents, or 7.9 percent, from Wednesday’s close.

In an EBW report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on December 10, Rubin highlighted that a “weather collapse plunge[d]… natural gas into freefall”.

“The January natural gas contract plummeted to $4.455 early this morning – a $1.041 implosion from Friday’s intraday high – as late December continues to hemorrhage demand,” Rubin said in that report.

“Since Friday, Week 3 has shed 42 gHDDs, with initial forecasts for a cold end to 2025 flipping to a blowtorch solution for most of the Lower 48,” he added.

“Week over week demand may shed 9.5 Bcfpd into Week 3, with a counter-seasonal warmup negating last week’s supply concerns,” he continued.

“Still, Henry Hub spot prices cleared at $4.76 per MMBtu with daily heating demand to jump 15.6 Bcfpd into the weekend. Weekly average LNG is at a record high, production readings are declining, and the storage surplus vs. five-year average may disappear into early 2026,” he noted.

In this report, Rubin went on to state that, “although it is difficult to ascertain when weather models will stop shedding demand and selling pressure will cease, the medium-term fundamental outlook is sounder than early-week price action suggests”.

Rubin also warned that “weather forecast evolution will continue to play a dominant role in the price trajectory for NYMEX gas futures”.

This EBW report highlighted that the January natural gas contract closed at $4.574 per MMBtu on Tuesday. The report outlined that this was down 33.8 cents, 6.9 percent, from Monday’s close.

In another EBW report sent to Rigzone on December 11, Rubin noted that the “Week 3 weather-driven demand collapse” was continuing.

“The NYMEX front-month staged a half-hearted 2.1 cent bounce yesterday – with the lack of a more sizable relief rally relative to the 71.5 cent early-week collapse a cautionary signal,” Rubin said in that report.

“The ongoing Week 3 weather collapse remains a bearish weight on the near-term outlook,” he added.

In this report, Rubin said “consensus expectations” for that day’s EIA storage report “span 165-174 billion cubic feet”.

“The first sizable storage pull of the year often includes linepack to bias withdrawals higher-and pipeline flow-derived draws also hint at risks of a possible bullish surprise,” he added.

Rubin highlighted in this report that “LNG feedgas figures have ticked lower” but added that the “overwhelming catalyst remains the 116-billion cubic foot collapse in demand since Friday”.

“Heating demand may surge 16 Bcfpd into the coming weekend, only to collapse 25 Bcfpd into the middle of next week,” he warned.

“Although medium-term fundamentals appear supportive, if late-December weather does not stabilize, further near-term downside cannot be ruled out,” he went on to note.

In this report, EBW highlighted that the January natural gas contract closed at $4.595 per MMBtu on Wednesday. The report outlined that this figure was up 2.1 cents, or 0.5 percent, from Tuesday’s close.

In its latest weekly natural gas storage report, which was released on December 11 and included data for the week ending December 5, the EIA stated that working gas in storage was 3,746 Bcf as of Friday, according to its estimates.

“This represents a net decrease of 177 billion cubic feet from the previous week,” the EIA said in this report.

“Stocks were 28 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 103 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3,643 billion cubic feet. At 3,746 billion cubic feet, total working gas is within the five-year historical range,” they added.

To contact the author, email [email protected]

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Trump Administration Calls for Emergency Power Auction to Build Big Power Plants Again

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Google warns transmission delays are now the biggest threat to data center expansion

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OpenAI turns to Cerebras in a mega deal to scale AI inference infrastructure

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Microsoft tells communities it will ‘pay its way’ as AI data center resource usage sparks backlash

It will work with utilities and public commissions to set the rates it pays high enough to cover data center electricity costs (including build-outs, additions, and active use). “Our goal is straightforward: To ensure that the electricity cost of serving our data centers is not passed on to residential customers,” Smith emphasized. For example, the company is supporting a new rate structure Wisconsin that would charge a class of “very large customers,” including data centers, the true cost of the electricity required to serve them. It will collaborate “early, closely, and transparently” with local utilities to add electricity and supporting infrastructure to existing grids when needed. For instance, Microsoft has contracted with the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) to add 7.9GW of new electricity generation to the grid, “more than double our current consumption,” Smith noted. It will pursue ways to make data centers more efficient. For example, it is already experimenting with AI to improve planning, extract more electricity from existing infrastructure, improve system resilience, and speed development of new infrastructure and technologies (like nuclear energy). It will advocate for state and national public policies that ensure electricity access that is affordable, reliable, and sustainable in neighboring communities. Microsoft previously established priorities for electricity policy advocacy, Smith noted, but “progress has been uneven. This needs to change.” Microsoft is similarly committed when it comes to data center water use, promising four actions: Reducing the overall amount of water its data centers use, initially improving it by 40% by 2030. The company is exploring innovations in cooling, including closed-loop systems that recirculate cooling liquids. It will collaborate with local utilities to map out water, wastewater, and pressure needs, and will “fully fund” infrastructure required for growth. For instance, in Quincy, Washington, Microsoft helped construct a water reuse utility that recirculates

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

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