
In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone on Friday by the EBW Analytics Group team, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, said bearish fundamentals are beginning to reassert influence over natural gas.
“Yesterday’s bearish EIA [U.S. Energy Information Administration] storage report surprise is the latest in a cascade of bearish fundamental indicators over the past two weeks,” Rubin said in the report.
“Mild March weather (with other widely followed meteorologists aligning with DTN’s warm forecast), weekly average natural gas production near year to date highs, LNG seasonally softening, and narrowing storage deficits suggest the potential for near to medium term price weakness,” Rubin added.
Rubin highlighted in the report that the NYMEX front-month contract was up 46.8¢ since Friday “despite the bearish fundamental indicators”.
“A loose supply/demand balance may be directed toward refilling storage deficits; storage east of the Rockies is 299 Bcf below five-year norms. Bullish price action in the face of soft near-term indicators remains impressive,” Rubin added.
Rubin went on to note in the report that EBW Analytics Group “continue[s] to highlight a structurally bullish long-term outlook and a fundamentally loose spring”.
“While upside price threats remain, receding momentum and soft fundamentals are increasing the likelihood of a near-term natural gas price retreat,” Rubin said.
The EIA’s latest weekly natural gas storage report, which was released on March 6 and included data for the week ending February 28, stated that “working gas in storage was 1,760 billion cubic feet as of Friday, February 28, 2025, according to EIA estimates”.
“This represents a net decrease of 80 billion cubic feet from the previous week. Stocks were 585 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 224 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 1,984 billion cubic feet,” it added.
“At 1,760 billion cubic feet, total working gas is within the five-year historical range,” the EIA’s latest weekly natural gas storage report noted.
In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone on Thursday by the EBW Analytics Group team, Rubin highlighted that the April natural gas contract “rose to a year to date high … [on Wednesday] even as near-term fundamentals softened”.
“Bullish technicals suggest a likely test of a critical technical inflection point at $4.56. While resistance held earlier this week and near-term fundamentals are relenting, substantial gains are possible if bulls can push higher,” Rubin stated in that report.
“With natural gas near a key inflection point, any surprise about today’s EIA storage report relative to consensus analyst expectations for a 92-100 billion cubic feet draw may hold increased importance,” Rubin added.
“While this week may contend for a triple-digit draw, however, today’s pull should be greater than cumulative remaining storage withdrawals in March,” Rubin continued.
In that report, Rubin also noted that “meteorologists are shedding heating demand, weekly average supply is at record highs, and LNG exports are ticking lower”.
“If the recent trend of defying near-term fundamentals continues, however, escalating price increases remain a distinct possibility,” Rubin added.
EBW Analytics Group provides independent expert analysis of natural gas, electricity, and crude oil markets, the company’s site states. Rubin is an expert in econometrics, statistics, microeconomics, and energy-related public policy, the site adds, noting that he is “instrumental in designing the algorithms used in our models, and in assessing the potential discrepancies between theoretical and practical market effects of models and historical results”.
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