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EIA Expects USA Gasoline Price to Drop in 2025 and 2026

According to its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on January 14 and completed its forecast on January 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the U.S. retail regular gasoline price to drop this year and next year. In its January STEO, the EIA projected that the retail regular gasoline price […]

According to its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on January 14 and completed its forecast on January 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the U.S. retail regular gasoline price to drop this year and next year.

In its January STEO, the EIA projected that the retail regular gasoline price would average $3.20 per gallon in 2025 and $3.02 per gallon in 2026. The retail regular gasoline price averaged $3.31 per gallon in 2024, the EIA’s January STEO showed.

According to a quarterly breakdown included in the STEO, the EIA forecast that the retail regular gasoline price would average $3.06 per gallon in the first quarter of 2025, $3.31 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.33 per gallon in the third quarter, $3.06 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $2.98 per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, $3.14 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.08 per gallon in the third quarter, and $2.85 per gallon in the fourth quarter of next year.

“U.S. retail gasoline prices in our forecast are mostly lower in 2025 and 2026 than they were in 2024, when the retail price averaged about $3.30 per gallon,” the EIA noted in its latest STEO.

“We forecast average U.S. gasoline prices in 2025 will decrease by more than 10 cents/gallon on an annual basis, down about three percent from 2024. In 2026, we forecast a further decrease of almost 20 cents/gallon, or an additional six percent,” it added.

“Retail gasoline prices decreased in both 2023 and 2024, after increasing substantially in 2022. On both a nominal and percentage basis, we estimate the price decreases in 2025 and 2026 will be smaller than the decrease between 2022 and 2023 (when prices fell 11 percent year on year),” the EIA continued.

The EIA stated in its January STEO that price decreases since 2022 have reflected both decreasing crude oil prices and narrowing refinery margins.

“In 2025 and 2026, we estimate refinery margins will remain relatively flat, but gasoline prices will continue to decrease with the price of crude oil,” the EIA added.

The EIA noted in its latest STEO that, this year, it expects lower refinery capacity will put some upward pressure on gasoline prices but added that it expects this pressure to be counteracted by lower crude oil prices.

“The lower inventories reflect a small increase in gasoline consumption in 2025, as well as reduced refinery production,” the EIA said in the STEO.

The EIA went on to state in the STEO that it estimates that retail gasoline prices will decrease in most U.S. regions during 2025. It noted that the exception is in the Rocky Mountains, “where [we] expect gasoline prices will be mostly unchanged from 2024”.

“In 2026, we expect retail gasoline prices in the West Coast to increase, though prices continue to decrease on the East Coast, on the Gulf Coast, and in the Midwest and Rocky Mountains,” the EIA said in the STEO.

“Higher West Coast prices reflect decreased regional gasoline production following the expected closure of Phillips 66’s Los Angeles refinery at the end of 2025. Higher Rocky Mountain prices reflect expectations for rising demand and ongoing regional capacity constraints,” it added.

In a release posted on its website in October, Phillips 66 announced plans to cease operations at its Los Angeles-area refinery in the fourth quarter of 2025.

“With the long-term sustainability of our Los Angeles Refinery uncertain and affected by market dynamics, we are working with leading land development firms to evaluate the future use of our unique and strategically located properties near the Port of Los Angeles,” Mark Lashier, chairman and CEO of Phillips 66, said in that release.

“Phillips 66 remains committed to serving California and will continue to take the necessary steps to meet our commercial and customer demands,” he added.

To contact the author, email [email protected]

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Intel details new efficient Xeon processor line

The new chips will be able to support up to 12-channel DDR5 memory with speeds of up to 8000 MT/s, a substantial increase over the 8 channels of 6400MT/s in the prior generation. In addition to that, the platform will support up to 6 UPI 2.0 links with up to

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Kuwait Unveils Major Offshore Discovery

State-owned Kuwait Oil Co. made a “major” discovery in the Jazah natural gas field in the OPEC member’s offshore region. “The initial exploration well recorded the highest production rate from a vertical well in the Minagish formation in Kuwait’s history,” KOC said in a statement on Monday. The company has made similar announcements for oil and gas offshore discoveries since last year. Initial tests from the Jazah-1 well revealed “exceptional production exceeding 29 million cubic feet of gas per day, and more than 5,000 barrels per day of condensate,” KOC, a unit of state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp., said. The field’s initial estimated area measures about 40 square kilometers (15.4 square miles), with projections indicating about 1 trillion cubic feet of gas and 120 million barrels of condensate, KOC said. Kuwait is OPEC’s fifth-biggest producer, with a current output of about 2.52 million barrels a day. It aims to boost capacity to 4 million barrels a day by 2035. What do you think? We’d love to hear from you, join the conversation on the Rigzone Energy Network. The Rigzone Energy Network is a new social experience created for you and all energy professionals to Speak Up about our industry, share knowledge, connect with peers and industry insiders and engage in a professional community that will empower your career in energy.

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IEA Sees Drone Strikes Suppressing Russia Refinery Runs to Mid-2026

The impact from Ukrainian drone strikes will suppress Russia’s refinery processing rates until at least mid-2026, the International Energy Agency says in its latest monthly oil-market report.  Kyiv has been intensifying attacks on its foe’s energy infrastructure — including oil refineries, pipelines and sea terminals — in a move to cut the Kremlin’s energy revenue and reduce its ability to supply fuel to the front lines.  Since the start of August, Ukraine has launched at least 28 strikes on key Russian refineries — with the range of the attacks increasing — causing gasoline shortages in several regions, including occupied Crimea. This has forced the Kremlin to impose fuel-export restrictions until the end of the year. “Previously, we had assumed a normalization of refining activity as we approached year-end but now embed a more cautious outlook,” the Paris-based agency said in a report on Tuesday. The IEA currently sees Russian processing rates at just under 5 million barrels a day through June 2026, and a recovery toward 5.4 million barrels a day later, with the outlook to be revised as more information becomes available. “The increasingly widespread and significant Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian oil refineries and infrastructure” has so far cut the nation’s crude processing by an estimated 500,000 barrels a day, the agency said. The government in Moscow has classified most energy data, including refinery runs and car-fuel production, which makes it difficult to make a precise assessment of the drone-related damage. Last week, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the nation’s refiners have increased their runs, balancing domestic fuel demand and supply. Lower Revenue With the drone strikes weighing on refinery runs, Russia raised its crude exports in September to 5.1 million barrels a day, the highest since May 2023, according to the IEA. Still, the nation’s oil-export

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BP Picks Valaris Rig to Drill Series of Wells in Med

In a statement sent to Rigzone by the BP team on Monday, BP announced the award of a rig contract to Valaris for the DS-12 deepwater drillship to drill five wells in the Mediterranean. The statement outlined that the wells will be drilled offshore Egypt in water depths ranging from 300 to 1,500 meters (984 to 4,921 feet). Drilling operations are expected to start in 2026, according to the statement, which noted that the program aims to “accelerate the development and production of gas reserves while utilizing existing production facilities in the Nile Delta”.  The rig contract signing ceremony took place at the Egypt Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources and was attended by Karim Badawi, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources and Mahmoud Abdel Hamid, Chairman of the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company, BP highlighted in the statement. BP also pointed out in the statement that the rig contract signing follows the visit of Badawi to BP’s London headquarters in September. During that visit, BP signed a Memorandum of Understanding with EGAS to drill five wells in the Mediterranean, BP highlighted. Nader Zaki, BP Regional President for the Middle East and North Africa, said in the statement, “we value our longstanding partnership with the Egyptian government”. “This signing represents a strategic milestone in our investments in Egypt’s energy sector during this decade, enabling us to develop additional gas resources in the Nile Delta and bring them into production as quickly as possible to meet the growing domestic market needs,” Zaki added. Wail Shaheen, BP Egypt President, said in the statement, “this signing builds on our recent exploration success in the Nile Delta and reflects our continued commitment to developing Egypt’s gas resources”. “The DS-12 rig will enable us to build on the momentum of our recent campaign, explore for new

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Shell Approves New Upstream Project for Nigeria LNG

Shell PLC on Tuesday announced a final investment decision (FID) to develop the HI field to supply up to 350 million standard cubic feet of natural gas a day to Nigeria LNG. The project is part of a joint venture in which Shell owns 40 percent through Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Co Ltd and Sunlink Energies and Resources Ltd holds 60 percent. At Nigeria LNG, which has a declared capacity of 22 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas a year, Shell owns 25.6 percent. “The increase in feedstock to NLNG, via the train VII project that aims to expand the Bonny Island terminal’s production capacity, is in line with Shell’s plans to grow its global LNG volumes by an average of four to five percent per year until 2030”, Shell said in a statement on its website. HI also supports Shell’s plan announced on Capital Market Day 2025 to start up upstream and integrated gas projects with a total capacity of one million barrels of oil equivalent per day between 2025 and 2030. It also contributes to the company’s target to grow top line production across its upstream and integrated gas business by one percent per year through the end of the decade, Shell said. HI is estimated to hold about 285 million barrels of oil equivalent, Shell said. The field, discovered 1985, lies 50 kilometers (31.07 miles) from shore in waters 100 meters (328.08 feet) deep, according to Shell. The development consists of a wellhead platform with four wells, a pipeline to transport the gas to Bonny and a gas processing plant on the island, from where the processed gas will be transported to Nigeria LNG and the condensate to the Bonny Oil and Gas Export Terminal, Shell said. “Following recent investment decisions related to the Bonga

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Oil Prices Fall to Lowest Point in 5 Months

Oil prices fell to their lowest point in five months on Tuesday, extending their downward trend. That’s what Daniel Takieddine, Co-founder and CEO of Sky Links Capital Group, said in a market analysis sent to Rigzone today. “Mounting concerns of a global supply surplus weighed on the market, compounded by renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China,” Takieddine stated in the analysis. “The latest International Energy Agency (IEA) market report added to the concerns and forecasts a growing oversupply of oil,” he added. “The IEA has increased its global supply growth projections to three million barrels per day for this year and 2.4 million for 2026, pointing to production hikes from OPEC+ and robust output from the Americas,” he continued. “In contrast, the agency has lowered its demand growth estimates to approximately 700,000 barrels per day for both years, reinforcing expectations of a significant surplus,” Takieddine warned. The Sky Links Capital Group CEO went on to state in the analysis that trade tensions are injecting fresh uncertainty into the market. “A brief rebound in prices on Monday, sparked by hopes for de-escalation in U.S.-China trade talks, quickly faded,” he said. “The market was further affected by a reduced geopolitical risk premium as hopes for stability in the Middle East grew,” he added. Looking ahead, Takieddine noted in the analysis that markets could closely monitor U.S.-China relations, OPEC+ supply, and upcoming inventory data from the EIA (Energy Information Administration) “to determine the market’s next direction”. “Without a positive surprise from inventory reports or broader macroeconomic data, prices could remain under pressure,” he warned. In a separate statement sent to Rigzone this morning, Naeem Aslam, Chief Market Analyst at Zay Capital Markets, highlighted that the Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil prices were “reflecting the balance between geopolitical tensions, economic policies, and

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Repsol Starts Renewable Gasoline Production at Tarragona Complex

Repsol SA has declared a “technological milestone” with the start of “industrial-scale” production of 100 percent renewable gasoline at its complex in Tarragona, Spain, making a case for combustion engines. “This new product, made entirely from renewable sources, is fully compatible with gasoline vehicles without the need for any modifications”, the Spanish energy company said in a press release. “Its use reduces net CO2 emissions by more than 70 percent compared to conventional gasoline. “Nexa 95 Gasoline of 100 percent renewable origin – Repsol’s highest-quality 95-octane product – is already available at 20 service stations in Spain, in the Madrid and Catalonia regions”. Repsol expects to deploy the product at 30 stations by yearend by expanding in other parts of the country including the cities of Bilbao, Tarragona, Valencia and Zaragoza. The formulation was developed with Honeywell, according to Repsol. In 2024 Repsol launched Nexa 100 Percent Renewable Diesel, which it says is designed for all diesel engines. Repsol said the development of the products demonstrate that “decarbonizing transport with renewable liquid fuels is a viable solution for combustion engine vehicles, whether gasoline, diesel or hybrid”. “These vehicles today represent 97 percent of the Spanish and European vehicle fleet, and 87 percent of sales in Spain so far this year”, it said. “To meet the climate targets set by Spain and the European Union, it is essential to recognize the role of 100 percent renewable fuels and, consequently, to reconsider the EU regulation on CO2 emission standards, which proposes a ban on combustion engines by 2035. The uncertainty caused by this measure has led to considerable aging of Spain’s vehicle fleet, with an average age of 14.5 years and 8.5 million vehicles – nearly one-third of the total fleet – over 20 years old. “To accelerate the development of renewable fuels, it is essential to establish

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OpenAI–Broadcom alliance signals a shift to open infrastructure for AI

The decision also reflects a future of AI workloads running on heterogeneous computing and networking infrastructure, said Lian Jye Su, chief analyst at Omdia. “While it makes sense for enterprises to first rely on Nvidia’s full stack solution to roll out AI, they will generally integrate alternative solutions such as AMD and self-developed chips for cost efficiency, supply chain diversity, and chip availability,” Su said. “This means data center networking vendors will need to consider interoperability and open standards as ways to address the diversification of AI chip architecture.” Hyperscalers and enterprise CIOs are increasingly focused on how to efficiently scale up or scale out AI servers as workloads expand. Nvidia’s GPUs still underpin most large-scale AI training, but companies are looking for ways to integrate them with other accelerators. Neil Shah, VP for research at Counterpoint Research, said that Nvidia’s recent decision to open its NVLink interconnect to ecosystem players earlier this year gives hyperscalers more flexibility to pair Nvidia GPUs with custom accelerators from vendors such as Broadcom or Marvell. “While this reduces the dependence on Nvidia for a complete solution, it actually increases the total addressable market for Nvidia to be the most preferred solution to be tightly paired with the hyperscaler’s custom compute,” Shah said. Most hyperscalers have moved toward custom compute architectures to diversify beyond x86-based Intel or AMD processors, Shah added. Many are exploring Arm or RISC-V designs that can be tailored to specific workloads for greater power efficiency and lower infrastructure costs. Shifting AI infrastructure strategies The collaboration also highlights how networking choices are becoming as strategic as chip design itself, suggesting a change in how AI workloads are powered and connected.

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Inside Nvidia’s ‘grid-to-chip’ vision: How Vera Rubin and Spectrum-XGS push toward AI giga-factories

Vera Rubin MGX brings together Nvidia’s Vera CPUs and Rubin CPX GPUs, all using the same open MGX rack footprint as Blackwell. The system allows for numerous configurations and integrations. “MGX is a flexible, modular building block-based approach to server and rack scale design,” Delaere said. “It allows our ecosystem to create a wide range of configurations, and do so very quickly.” Vera Rubin MGX will deliver almost eight times more performance than Nvidia’s GB 300 for certain types of calculation, he said. The architecture is liquid-cooled and cable-free, allowing for faster assembly and serviceability. Operators can quickly mix and match components such as CPUs, GPUs, or storage, supporting interoperability, Nvidia said. Matt Kimball, principal data center analyst at Moor Insights and Strategy, highlighted the modularity and cleanness of the MGX tray design. “This simplifies the manufacturing process significantly,” he said. For enterprises managing tens or even hundreds of thousands of racks, “this design enables a level of operational efficiency that can deliver real savings in time and cost.” Nvidia is also showing innovation with cooling, Kimball said. “Running cooling to the midplane is a very clean design and more efficient.”

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Cisco seriously amps-up Silicon One chip, router for AI data center connectivity

Some say deep buffers shouldn’t be used to handle this type of traffic; the contention is that these buffers fill and drain, creating jitter in the workloads, and that slows things down, Chopra told Network World. “But the real source of that challenge is not the buffers. It’s a poor congestion management scheme and poor load balancing with AI workloads, which are completely deterministic and predictable. You can actually proactively figure out how to place flows across the network and avoid the congestion,” he said. The 8223’s deep-buffer design provides ample memory to temporarily store packets during congestion or traffic bursts, an essential feature for AI networks where inter-GPU communication can create unpredictable, high-volume data flows, according to Gurudatt Shenoy, vice president of Cisco Provider Connectivity. “Combined with its high-radix architecture, the 8223 allows more devices to connect directly, reducing latency, saving rack space, and further lowering power consumption. The result is a flatter, more efficient network topology supporting high-bandwidth, low-latency communication that is critical for AI workloads,” Shenoy wrote in a blog post. NOS options Notably, the first operating systems that the 8223 supports are the Linux Foundation’s Software for Open Networking in the Cloud (SONiC) and Facebook open switching system (FBOSS) – not Cisco’s own IOS XR.  IXR will be supported, too, but at a later date, according to Cisco.  SONiC decouples network software from the underlying hardware and lets it run on hundreds of switches and ASICs from multiple vendors while supporting a full suite of network features such as Border Gateway Protocol (BGP), remote direct memory access (RDMA), QoS, and Ethernet/IP. One of the keys to SONiC is its switch-abstraction interface, which defines an API to provide a vendor-independent way of controlling forwarding elements such as a switching ASIC, an NPU, or a software switch in a uniform

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Utilities Race to Meet Surging Data Center Demand With New Power Models

Over the last 18 months or so, the energy generation industry and its public utilities have been significantly impacted by the AI data center boom. It has been demonstrated across North America that the increase in demand for power, as driven by the demand for hyperscale and AI data centers, greatly exceeds the ability of the industry to actually generate and deliver power to meet the demand. We have covered many of the efforts being made to control the availability of power. In response, utilities and regulators have begun rethinking how to manage power availability through means such as: temporary moratoriums on new data center interconnections; the creation of new rate classes; cogeneration and load-sharing agreements; renewable integration; and power-driven site selection strategies.  But the bottom line is that in many locations utilities will need to change the way they work and how and where they spend their CAPEX budgets. The industry has already realized that their demand forecast models are hugely out of date, and that has had a ripple effect on much of the planning done by public utilities to meet the next generation of power demand. Most utilities now acknowledge that their demand forecasting models have fallen behind reality, triggering revisions to Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs) and transmission buildouts nationwide. This mismatch between forecast and actual demand is forcing a fundamental rethink of capital expenditure priorities and long-term grid planning. Spend More, Build Faster Utilities are sharply increasing CAPEX and rebalancing their resource portfolios—not just for decarbonization, but to keep pace with multi-hundred-megawatt data center interconnects. This trend is spreading across the industry, not confined to a few isolated utilities. Notable examples include: Duke Energy raised its five-year CAPEX plan to $83 billion (a 13.7% increase) and plans to add roughly 5 GW of natural gas capacity

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Duos Pairs Mobile Power and Modular Edge Data Centers for Rapid Texas Rollout

Duos Technology Group has launched the fifth of its AI edge data centers, part of a plan to deploy 15 units by the end of 2025. The projects are executed through Duos Edge AI, a subsidiary focused on modular, rapidly installed edge data centers (EDCs) in underserved markets, beginning with school districts and regional carrier hubs across Texas. The newest site is being deployed on-premises with the Dumas Independent School District in Dumas, Texas. High-Density Edge Design Duos’ EDCs emphasize very high rack densities (100 kW+ per rack), SOC 2 Type II compliance, N+1 power with dual generators, and a 90-day build/turn-up cycle. Each site is positioned approximately 12 miles from end users, cutting latency for real-time workloads. To meet the power demands of these edge deployments, Duos formed Duos Energy and partnered with Fortress/APR Energy to deliver behind-the-meter mobile gas turbines. This approach allows compute to go live in 90 days without waiting years for utility interconnection upgrades. The goal is straightforward: move power and compute close to demand, with rapid deployment. Duos’ modular pods are designed for exurban and rural locations as localized compute hubs for carriers, schools, healthcare systems, and municipal users. The rugged design pairs high-density racks with the short deployment cycle and proximity targeting, enabling a wide range of applications. With Dumas ISD now live, Duos has five sites in Texas, including Amarillo/Region 16, Victoria/Region 3, Dumas ISD, and multiple Corpus Christi locations. Mobile Power vs. Modular Compute While Duos doesn’t consistently describe its data center units as “mobile,” they are modular and containerized, engineered for rapid, site-agnostic deployment. The “mobile” label more explicitly applies to Duos’ power strategy—a turbine fleet that can be fielded or re-fielded to match demand. From an operator’s perspective, the combined proposition functions like a mobile platform: pre-integrated compute pods

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Report: AMD could be Intel’s next foundry customer

[ Related: More Intel news and insights ] AMD has lagged behind Nvidia in the AI business but has done well in the federal supercomputing business, holding numerous top spots with supercomputers like El Capitan and Frontier. Manufacturing its chips in the United States would be a good way to get the Trump administration off its back given its push for domestic manufacturing of semiconductors. The Trump administration is pushing for 50% of chips sold in America to be manufactured domestically, and tariffs on chips that are not. It also faces outbound restrictions. Earlier this year, AMD faced export restrictions GPUs meant for China as part of U.S. export controls against China’s AI business. “I believe this is a smart move by AMD to secure capacity in the local market without fighting against Nvidia and Apple and their deeper pockets for the limited capacity at TSMC,” said Alvi Nguyen, senior analyst with Forrester Research.” With the US investment in Intel, followed by Nvidia, this is can be seen as diversifying their supply chain and providing cheaper, locally sourced parts.” For Intel, this will continue a streak of good news it has enjoyed recently. “Having customers take up capacity at their foundries will go a long way in legitimizing their semiconductor processes and hopefully create the snowball effect of getting even more US-based customers,” said Nguyen. In recent weeks, Intel has partnered with Nvidia to jointly make PC and data center chips. Nvidia also took a $5B stake in Intel. Earlier the Trump administration made a $11.1B, or 10%, stake in Intel.

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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Can we repair the internet?

From addictive algorithms to exploitative apps, data mining to misinformation, the internet today can be a hazardous place. Books by three influential figures—the intellect behind

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