Such a jump in production, the analysts wrote, will push down the price of Brent crude to about $70/bbl from the range of $100-110 expected for this month and next. In early-afternoon trading June 8, Brent was trading around $94.10, up about 1% on the day.
That June-July price forecast from Fitch, which acknowledged the high level of uncertainty around the end of hostilities and their effect on production and markets, is substantially lower than the range forecast late last month by senior executives of ExxonMobil Corp. and Chevron Corp.
Speaking at a conference hosted by research and brokerage firm Bernstein, both Neil Chapman of ExxonMobil and Mike Wirth of Chevron forecast mid-summer prices of $150 or higher as a result of inventories being depleted in the next few weeks.
“Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices,” Wirth said then. “There [will be] more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”
The price action on June 8 reflected air attacks by both Iran and Israel during the night before but also statements by both parties since then about ceasing strikes. In overnight trading, oil prices had risen as much as 5%.
