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The Method of Moments Estimator for Gaussian Mixture Models

Audio Processing is one of the most important application domains of digital signal processing (DSP) and machine learning. Modeling acoustic environments is an essential step in developing digital audio processing systems such as: speech recognition, speech enhancement, acoustic echo cancellation, etc. Acoustic environments are filled with background noise that can have multiple sources. For example, […]

Audio Processing is one of the most important application domains of digital signal processing (DSP) and machine learning. Modeling acoustic environments is an essential step in developing digital audio processing systems such as: speech recognition, speech enhancement, acoustic echo cancellation, etc.

Acoustic environments are filled with background noise that can have multiple sources. For example, when sitting in a coffee shop, walking down the street, or driving your car, you hear sounds that can be considered as interference or background noise. Such interferences do not necessarily follow the same statistical model, and hence, a mixture of models can be useful in modeling them. 

Those statistical models can also be useful in classifying acoustic environments into different categories, e.g., a quiet auditorium (class 1), or a slightly noisier room with closed windows (class 2), and a third option with windows open (class 3). In each case, the level of background noise can be modeled using a mixture of noise sources, each happening with a different probability and with a different acoustic level. 

Another application of such models is in the simulation of acoustic noise in different environments based on which DSP and machine learning solutions can be designed to solve specific acoustic problems in practical audio systems such as interference cancellation, echo cancellation, speech recognition, speech enhancement, etc.

Photo by Matoo.Studio on Unsplash

A simple statistical model that can be useful in such scenarios is the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) in which each of the different noise sources is assumed to follow a specific Gaussian distribution with a certain variance. All the distributions can be assumed to have zero mean while still being sufficiently accurate for this application, as also shown in this article

Each of the GMM distributions has its own probability of contributing to the background noise. For example, there could be a consistent background noise that occurs most of the time, while other sources can be intermittent, such as the noise coming through windows, etc. All this has to be considered in our statistical model.

An example of simulated GMM data over time (normalized to the sampling time) is shown in the figure below in which there are two Gaussian noise sources, both of zero mean but with two different variances. In this example, the lower variance signal occurs more often with 90% probability hence the intermittent spikes in the generated data representing the signal with higher variance.

In other scenarios and depending on the application, it could be the other way around in which the high variance noise signal occurs more often (as will be shown in a later example in this article). Python code used to generate and analyze GMM data will also be shown later in this article.

Turning to a more formal modelling language, let’s assume that the background noise signal that is collected (using a high-quality microphone for example) is modeled as realizations of independent and identically distributed (iid) random variables that follow a GMM as shown below.

The modeling problem thus boils down to estimating the model parameters (i.e., p1, σ²1, and σ²2) using the observed data (iid). In this article, we will be using the method of moments (MoM) estimator for such purpose.

To simplify things further, we can assume that the noise variances (σ²1 and σ²2) are known and that only the mixing parameter (p1) is to be estimated. The MoM estimator can be used to estimate more than one parameter (i.e., p1, σ²1, and σ²2) as shown in Chapter 9 of the book: “Statistical Signal Processing: Estimation Theory”, by Steven Kay. However, in this example, we will assume that only p1 is unknown and to be estimated.

Since both gaussians in the GMM are zero mean, we will start with the second moment and try to obtain the unknown parameter p1 as a function of the second moment as follows.

Note that another simple method to obtain the moments of a random variable (e.g., second moment or higher) is by using the moment generating function (MGF). A good textbook in probability theory that covers such topics, and more is: “Introduction to Probability for Data Science”, by Stanley H. Chan.

Before proceeding any further, we would like to quantify this estimator in terms of the fundamental properties of estimators such as bias, variance, consistency, etc. We will verify this later numerically with a Python example. 

Starting with the estimator bias, we can show that the above estimator of p1 is indeed unbiased as follows.

We can then proceed to derive the variance of our estimator as follows.

It is also clear from the above analysis that the estimator is consistent since it is unbiased and also its variance decreases when the sample size (N) increases. We will also use the above formula of the p1 estimator variance in our Python numerical example (shown in detail later in this article) when comparing theory with practical numerical results. 

Now let’s introduce some Python code and do some fun stuff!

First, we generate our data that follows a GMM with zero means and standard deviations equal to 2 and 10, respectively, as shown in the code below. In this example, the mixing parameter p1 = 0.2, and the sample size of the data equals 1000.

# Import the Python libraries that we will need in this GMM example
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# GMM data generation
mu = 0 # both gaussians in GMM are zero mean
sigma_1 = 2 # std dev of the first gaussian
sigma_2 = 10 # std dev of the second gaussian
norm_params = np.array([[mu, sigma_1],
                        [mu, sigma_2]])
sample_size = 1000
p1 = 0.2 # probability that the data point comes from first gaussian
mixing_prob = [p1, (1-p1)]
# A stream of indices from which to choose the component
GMM_idx = np.random.choice(len(mixing_prob), size=sample_size, replace=True, 
                p=mixing_prob)
# GMM_data is the GMM sample data
GMM_data = np.fromiter((stats.norm.rvs(*(norm_params[i])) for i in GMM_idx),
                   dtype=np.float64)

Then we plot the histogram of the generated data versus the probability density function as shown below. The figure shows the contribution of both Gaussian densities in the overall GMM, with each density scaled by its corresponding factor.

The Python code used to generate the above figure is shown below.

x1 = np.linspace(GMM_data.min(), GMM_data.max(), sample_size)
y1 = np.zeros_like(x1)

# GMM probability distribution
for (l, s), w in zip(norm_params, mixing_prob):
    y1 += stats.norm.pdf(x1, loc=l, scale=s) * w

# Plot the GMM probability distribution versus the data histogram
fig1, ax = plt.subplots()
ax.hist(GMM_data, bins=50, density=True, label="GMM data histogram", 
        color = GRAY9)
ax.plot(x1, p1*stats.norm(loc=mu, scale=sigma_1).pdf(x1),
        label="p1 × first PDF",color = GREEN1,linewidth=3.0)
ax.plot(x1, (1-p1)*stats.norm(loc=mu, scale=sigma_2).pdf(x1),
        label="(1-p1) × second PDF",color = ORANGE1,linewidth=3.0)
ax.plot(x1, y1, label="GMM distribution (PDF)",color = BLUE2,linewidth=3.0)

ax.set_title("Data histogram vs. true distribution", fontsize=14, loc='left')
ax.set_xlabel('Data value')
ax.set_ylabel('Probability')
ax.legend()
ax.grid()

After that, we compute the estimate of the mixing parameter p1 that we derived earlier using MoM and which is shown here again below for reference.

The Python code used to compute the above equation using our GMM sample data is shown below.

# Estimate the mixing parameter p1 from the sample data using MoM estimator
p1_hat = (sum(pow(x,2) for x in GMM_data) / len(GMM_data) - pow(sigma_2,2))
         /(pow(sigma_1,2) - pow(sigma_2,2))

In order to properly assess this estimator, we use Monte Carlo simulation by generating multiple realizations of the GMM data and estimate p1 for each realization as shown in the Python code below.

# Monte Carlo simulation of the MoM estimator
num_monte_carlo_iterations = 500
p1_est = np.zeros((num_monte_carlo_iterations,1))

sample_size = 1000
p1 = 0.2 # probability that the data point comes from first gaussian
mixing_prob = [p1, (1-p1)]
# A stream of indices from which to choose the component
GMM_idx = np.random.choice(len(mixing_prob), size=sample_size, replace=True, 
          p=mixing_prob)
for iteration in range(num_monte_carlo_iterations):
  sample_data = np.fromiter((stats.norm.rvs(*(norm_params[i])) for i in GMM_idx))
  p1_est[iteration] = (sum(pow(x,2) for x in sample_data)/len(sample_data) 
                       - pow(sigma_2,2))/(pow(sigma_1,2) - pow(sigma_2,2))

Then, we check for the bias and variance of our estimator and compare to the theoretical results that we derived earlier as shown below.

p1_est_mean = np.mean(p1_est)
p1_est_var = np.sum((p1_est-p1_est_mean)**2)/num_monte_carlo_iterations
p1_theoritical_var_num = 3*p1*pow(sigma_1,4) + 3*(1-p1)*pow(sigma_2,4) 
                         - pow(p1*pow(sigma_1,2) + (1-p1)*pow(sigma_2,2),2)
p1_theoritical_var_den = sample_size*pow(sigma_1**2-sigma_2**2,2)
p1_theoritical_var = p1_theoritical_var_num/p1_theoritical_var_den
print('Sample variance of MoM estimator of p1 = %.6f' % p1_est_var)
print('Theoretical variance of MoM estimator of p1 = %.6f' % p1_theoritical_var)
print('Mean of MoM estimator of p1 = %.6f' % p1_est_mean)

# Below are the results of the above code
Sample variance of MoM estimator of p1 = 0.001876
Theoretical variance of MoM estimator of p1 = 0.001897
Mean of MoM estimator of p1 = 0.205141

We can observe from the above results that the mean of the p1 estimate equals 0.2051 which is very close to the true parameter p1 = 0.2. This mean gets even closer to the true parameter as the sample size increases. Thus, we have numerically shown that the estimator is unbiased as confirmed by the theoretical results done earlier. 

Moreover, the sample variance of the p1 estimator (0.001876) is almost identical to the theoretical variance (0.001897) which is beautiful. 

It is always a happy moment when theory matches practice!

All images in this article, unless otherwise noted, are by the author.

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Cologix and Lambda Debut NVIDIA HGX B200 AI Clusters in Columbus, Ohio

In our latest episode of the Data Center Frontier Show, we explore how powerhouse AI infrastructure is moving inland—anchored by the first NVIDIA HGX B200 cluster deployment in Columbus, Ohio. Cologix, Lambda, and Supermicro have partnered on the project, which combines Lambda’s 1-Click Clusters™, Supermicro’s energy-efficient hardware, and Cologix’s carrier-dense Scalelogix℠ COL4 facility. It’s a milestone that speaks to the rapid decentralization of AI workloads and the emergence of the Midwest as a serious player in the AI economy. Joining me for the conversation were Bill Bentley, VP Hyperscale and Cloud Sales at Cologix, and Ken Patchett, VP Data Center Infrastructure at Lambda. Why Columbus, Why Now? Asked about the significance of launching in Columbus, Patchett framed the move in terms of the coming era of “superintelligence.” “The shift to superintelligence is happening now—systems that can reason, adapt, and accelerate human progress,” Patchett said. “That requires an entirely new type of infrastructure, which means capital, vision, and the right partners. Columbus with Cologix made sense because beyond being centrally located, they’re highly connected, cost-efficient, and built to scale. We’re not chasing trends. We’re laying the groundwork for a future where intelligence infrastructure is as ubiquitous as electricity.” Bentley pointed to the city’s underlying strengths in connectivity, incentives, and utility economics. “Columbus is uniquely situated at the intersection of long-haul fiber,” Bentley said. “You’ve got state tax incentives, low-cost utilities, and a growing concentration of hyperscalers and local enterprises. The ecosystem is ripe for growth. It’s a natural geography for AI workloads that need geographic diversity without sacrificing performance.” Shifting—or Expanding—the Map for AI The guests agreed that deployments like this don’t represent a wholesale shift away from coastal hyperscale markets, but rather the expansion of AI’s footprint across multiple geographies. “I like to think of Lambda as an AI hyperscaler,”

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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