Stay Ahead, Stay ONMINE

The State of AI: A vision of the world in 2030

Welcome back to The State of AI, a new collaboration between the Financial Times and MIT Technology Review. Every Monday, writers from both publications debate one aspect of the generative AI revolution reshaping global power. You can read the rest of the series here. In this final edition, MIT Technology Review’s senior AI editor Will Douglas Heaven talks with Tim Bradshaw, FT global tech correspondent, about where AI will go next, and what our world will look like in the next five years. (As part of this series, join MIT Technology Review’s editor in chief, Mat Honan, and editor at large, David Rotman, for an exclusive conversation with Financial Times columnist Richard Waters on how AI is reshaping the global economy. Live on Tuesday, December 9 at 1:00 p.m. ET. This is a subscriber-only event and you can sign up here.) Will Douglas Heaven writes:  Every time I’m asked what’s coming next, I get a Luke Haines song stuck in my head: “Please don’t ask me about the future / I am not a fortune teller.” But here goes. What will things be like in 2030? My answer: same but different.  There are huge gulfs of opinion when it comes to predicting the near-future impacts of generative AI. In one camp we have the AI Futures Project, a small donation-funded research outfit led by former OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo. The nonprofit made a big splash back in April with AI 2027, a speculative account of what the world will look like two years from now.  The story follows the runaway advances of an AI firm called OpenBrain (any similarities are coincidental, etc.) all the way to a choose-your-own-adventure-style boom or doom ending. Kokotajlo and his coauthors make no bones about their expectation that in the next decade the impact of AI will exceed that of the Industrial Revolution—a 150-year period of economic and social upheaval so great that we still live in the world it wrought. At the other end of the scale we have team Normal Technology: Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor, a pair of Princeton University researchers and coauthors of the book AI Snake Oil, who push back not only on most of AI 2027’s predictions but, more important, on its foundational worldview. That’s not how technology works, they argue. Advances at the cutting edge may come thick and fast, but change across the wider economy, and society as a whole, moves at human speed. Widespread adoption of new technologies can be slow; acceptance slower. AI will be no different.  What should we make of these extremes? ChatGPT came out three years ago last month, but it’s still not clear just how good the latest versions of this tech are at replacing lawyers or software developers or (gulp) journalists. And new updates no longer bring the step changes in capability that they once did.  And yet this radical technology is so new it would be foolish to write it off so soon. Just think: Nobody even knows exactly how this technology works—let alone what it’s really for.  As the rate of advance in the core technology slows down, applications of that tech will become the main differentiator between AI firms. (Witness the new browser wars and the chatbot pick-and-mix already on the market.) At the same time, high-end models are becoming cheaper to run and more accessible. Expect this to be where most of the action is: New ways to use existing models will keep them fresh and distract people waiting in line for what comes next.  Meanwhile, progress continues beyond LLMs. (Don’t forget—there was AI before ChatGPT, and there will be AI after it too.) Technologies such as reinforcement learning—the powerhouse behind AlphaGo, DeepMind’s board-game-playing AI that beat a Go grand master in 2016—is set to make a comeback. There’s also a lot of buzz around world models, a type of generative AI with a stronger grip on how the physical world fits together than LLMs display.  Ultimately, I agree with team Normal Technology that rapid technological advances do not translate to economic or societal ones straight away. There’s just too much messy human stuff in the middle.  But Tim, over to you. I’m curious to hear what your tea leaves are saying.  FT/MIT TECHNOLOGY REVIEW | ADOBE STOCK Tim Bradshaw responds” Will, I am more confident than you that the world will look quite different in 2030. In five years’ time, I expect the AI revolution to have proceeded apace. But who gets to benefit from those gains will create a world of AI haves and have-nots. It seems inevitable that the AI bubble will burst sometime before the end of the decade. Whether a venture capital funding shakeout comes in six months or two years (I feel the current frenzy still has some way to run), swathes of AI app developers will disappear overnight. Some will see their work absorbed by the models upon which they depend. Others will learn the hard way that you can’t sell services that cost $1 for 50 cents without a firehose of VC funding. How many of the foundation model companies survive is harder to call, but it already seems clear that OpenAI’s chain of interdependencies within Silicon Valley make it too big to fail. Still, a funding reckoning will force it to ratchet up pricing for its services. When OpenAI was created in 2015, it pledged to “advance digital intelligence in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity as a whole.” That seems increasingly untenable. Sooner or later, the investors who bought in at a $500 billion price tag will push for returns. Those data centers won’t pay for themselves. By that point, many companies and individuals will have come to depend on ChatGPT or other AI services for their everyday workflows. Those able to pay will reap the productivity benefits, scooping up the excess computing power as others are priced out of the market. Being able to layer several AI services on top of each other will provide a compounding effect. One example I heard on a recent trip to San Francisco: Ironing out the kinks in vibe coding is simply a matter of taking several passes at the same problem and then running a few more AI agents to look for bugs and security issues. That sounds incredibly GPU-intensive, implying that making AI really deliver on the current productivity promise will require customers to pay far more than most do today. The same holds true in physical AI. I fully expect robotaxis to be commonplace in every major city by the end of the decade, and I even expect to see humanoid robots in many homes. But while Waymo’s Uber-like prices in San Francisco and the kinds of low-cost robots produced by China’s Unitree give the impression today that these will soon be affordable for all, the compute cost involved in making them useful and ubiquitous seems destined to turn them into luxuries for the well-off, at least in the near term. The rest of us, meanwhile, will be left with an internet full of slop and unable to afford AI tools that actually work. Perhaps some breakthrough in computational efficiency will avert this fate. But the current AI boom means Silicon Valley’s AI companies lack the incentives to make leaner models or experiment with radically different kinds of chips. That only raises the likelihood that the next wave of AI innovation will come from outside the US, be that China, India, or somewhere even farther afield. Silicon Valley’s AI boom will surely end before 2030, but the race for global influence over the technology’s development—and the political arguments about how its benefits are distributed—seem set to continue well into the next decade.  Will replies:  I am with you that the cost of this technology is going to lead to a world of haves and have-nots. Even today, $200+ a month buys power users of ChatGPT or Gemini a very different experience from that of people on the free tier. That capability gap is certain to increase as model makers seek to recoup costs.  We’re going to see massive global disparities too. In the Global North, adoption has been off the charts. A recent report from Microsoft’s AI Economy Institute notes that AI is the fastest-spreading technology in human history: “In less than three years, more than 1.2 billion people have used AI tools, a rate of adoption faster than the internet, the personal computer, or even the smartphone.” And yet AI is useless without ready access to electricity and the internet; swathes of the world still have neither.  I still remain skeptical that we will see anything like the revolution that many insiders promise (and investors pray for) by 2030. When Microsoft talks about adoption here, it’s counting casual users rather than measuring long-term technological diffusion, which takes time. Meanwhile, casual users get bored and move on.  How about this: If I live with a domestic robot in five years’ time, you can send your laundry to my house in a robotaxi any day of the week.  JK! As if I could afford one.  Further reading  What is AI? It sounds like a stupid question, but it’s one that’s never been more urgent. In this deep dive, Will unpacks decades of spin and speculation to get to the heart of our collective technodream.  AGI—the idea that machines will be as smart as humans—has hijacked an entire industry (and possibly the US economy). For MIT Technology Review’s recent New Conspiracy Age package, Will takes a provocative look at how AGI is like a conspiracy.  The FT examined the economics of self-driving cars this summer, asking who will foot the multi-billion-dollar bill to buy enough robotaxis to serve a big city like London or New York.A plausible counter-argument to Tim’s thesis on AI inequalities is that freely available open-source (or more accurately, “open weight”) models will keep pulling down prices. The US may want frontier models to be built on US chips but it is already losing the global south to Chinese software.

Welcome back to The State of AI, a new collaboration between the Financial Times and MIT Technology Review. Every Monday, writers from both publications debate one aspect of the generative AI revolution reshaping global power. You can read the rest of the series here.

In this final edition, MIT Technology Review’s senior AI editor Will Douglas Heaven talks with Tim Bradshaw, FT global tech correspondent, about where AI will go next, and what our world will look like in the next five years.

(As part of this series, join MIT Technology Review’s editor in chief, Mat Honan, and editor at large, David Rotman, for an exclusive conversation with Financial Times columnist Richard Waters on how AI is reshaping the global economy. Live on Tuesday, December 9 at 1:00 p.m. ET. This is a subscriber-only event and you can sign up here.)

state of AI

Will Douglas Heaven writes: 

Every time I’m asked what’s coming next, I get a Luke Haines song stuck in my head: “Please don’t ask me about the future / I am not a fortune teller.” But here goes. What will things be like in 2030? My answer: same but different. 

There are huge gulfs of opinion when it comes to predicting the near-future impacts of generative AI. In one camp we have the AI Futures Project, a small donation-funded research outfit led by former OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo. The nonprofit made a big splash back in April with AI 2027, a speculative account of what the world will look like two years from now. 

The story follows the runaway advances of an AI firm called OpenBrain (any similarities are coincidental, etc.) all the way to a choose-your-own-adventure-style boom or doom ending. Kokotajlo and his coauthors make no bones about their expectation that in the next decade the impact of AI will exceed that of the Industrial Revolution—a 150-year period of economic and social upheaval so great that we still live in the world it wrought.

At the other end of the scale we have team Normal Technology: Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor, a pair of Princeton University researchers and coauthors of the book AI Snake Oil, who push back not only on most of AI 2027’s predictions but, more important, on its foundational worldview. That’s not how technology works, they argue.

Advances at the cutting edge may come thick and fast, but change across the wider economy, and society as a whole, moves at human speed. Widespread adoption of new technologies can be slow; acceptance slower. AI will be no different. 

What should we make of these extremes? ChatGPT came out three years ago last month, but it’s still not clear just how good the latest versions of this tech are at replacing lawyers or software developers or (gulp) journalists. And new updates no longer bring the step changes in capability that they once did. 

And yet this radical technology is so new it would be foolish to write it off so soon. Just think: Nobody even knows exactly how this technology works—let alone what it’s really for. 

As the rate of advance in the core technology slows down, applications of that tech will become the main differentiator between AI firms. (Witness the new browser wars and the chatbot pick-and-mix already on the market.) At the same time, high-end models are becoming cheaper to run and more accessible. Expect this to be where most of the action is: New ways to use existing models will keep them fresh and distract people waiting in line for what comes next. 

Meanwhile, progress continues beyond LLMs. (Don’t forget—there was AI before ChatGPT, and there will be AI after it too.) Technologies such as reinforcement learning—the powerhouse behind AlphaGo, DeepMind’s board-game-playing AI that beat a Go grand master in 2016—is set to make a comeback. There’s also a lot of buzz around world models, a type of generative AI with a stronger grip on how the physical world fits together than LLMs display. 

Ultimately, I agree with team Normal Technology that rapid technological advances do not translate to economic or societal ones straight away. There’s just too much messy human stuff in the middle. 

But Tim, over to you. I’m curious to hear what your tea leaves are saying. 

Tim Bradshaw and Will Douglas Heaven

FT/MIT TECHNOLOGY REVIEW | ADOBE STOCK

Tim Bradshaw responds

Will, I am more confident than you that the world will look quite different in 2030. In five years’ time, I expect the AI revolution to have proceeded apace. But who gets to benefit from those gains will create a world of AI haves and have-nots.

It seems inevitable that the AI bubble will burst sometime before the end of the decade. Whether a venture capital funding shakeout comes in six months or two years (I feel the current frenzy still has some way to run), swathes of AI app developers will disappear overnight. Some will see their work absorbed by the models upon which they depend. Others will learn the hard way that you can’t sell services that cost $1 for 50 cents without a firehose of VC funding.

How many of the foundation model companies survive is harder to call, but it already seems clear that OpenAI’s chain of interdependencies within Silicon Valley make it too big to fail. Still, a funding reckoning will force it to ratchet up pricing for its services.

When OpenAI was created in 2015, it pledged to “advance digital intelligence in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity as a whole.” That seems increasingly untenable. Sooner or later, the investors who bought in at a $500 billion price tag will push for returns. Those data centers won’t pay for themselves. By that point, many companies and individuals will have come to depend on ChatGPT or other AI services for their everyday workflows. Those able to pay will reap the productivity benefits, scooping up the excess computing power as others are priced out of the market.

Being able to layer several AI services on top of each other will provide a compounding effect. One example I heard on a recent trip to San Francisco: Ironing out the kinks in vibe coding is simply a matter of taking several passes at the same problem and then running a few more AI agents to look for bugs and security issues. That sounds incredibly GPU-intensive, implying that making AI really deliver on the current productivity promise will require customers to pay far more than most do today.

The same holds true in physical AI. I fully expect robotaxis to be commonplace in every major city by the end of the decade, and I even expect to see humanoid robots in many homes. But while Waymo’s Uber-like prices in San Francisco and the kinds of low-cost robots produced by China’s Unitree give the impression today that these will soon be affordable for all, the compute cost involved in making them useful and ubiquitous seems destined to turn them into luxuries for the well-off, at least in the near term.

The rest of us, meanwhile, will be left with an internet full of slop and unable to afford AI tools that actually work.

Perhaps some breakthrough in computational efficiency will avert this fate. But the current AI boom means Silicon Valley’s AI companies lack the incentives to make leaner models or experiment with radically different kinds of chips. That only raises the likelihood that the next wave of AI innovation will come from outside the US, be that China, India, or somewhere even farther afield.

Silicon Valley’s AI boom will surely end before 2030, but the race for global influence over the technology’s development—and the political arguments about how its benefits are distributed—seem set to continue well into the next decade. 

Will replies: 

I am with you that the cost of this technology is going to lead to a world of haves and have-nots. Even today, $200+ a month buys power users of ChatGPT or Gemini a very different experience from that of people on the free tier. That capability gap is certain to increase as model makers seek to recoup costs. 

We’re going to see massive global disparities too. In the Global North, adoption has been off the charts. A recent report from Microsoft’s AI Economy Institute notes that AI is the fastest-spreading technology in human history: “In less than three years, more than 1.2 billion people have used AI tools, a rate of adoption faster than the internet, the personal computer, or even the smartphone.” And yet AI is useless without ready access to electricity and the internet; swathes of the world still have neither. 

I still remain skeptical that we will see anything like the revolution that many insiders promise (and investors pray for) by 2030. When Microsoft talks about adoption here, it’s counting casual users rather than measuring long-term technological diffusion, which takes time. Meanwhile, casual users get bored and move on. 

How about this: If I live with a domestic robot in five years’ time, you can send your laundry to my house in a robotaxi any day of the week. 

JK! As if I could afford one. 

Further reading 

What is AI? It sounds like a stupid question, but it’s one that’s never been more urgent. In this deep dive, Will unpacks decades of spin and speculation to get to the heart of our collective technodream. 

AGI—the idea that machines will be as smart as humans—has hijacked an entire industry (and possibly the US economy). For MIT Technology Review’s recent New Conspiracy Age package, Will takes a provocative look at how AGI is like a conspiracy

The FT examined the economics of self-driving cars this summer, asking who will foot the multi-billion-dollar bill to buy enough robotaxis to serve a big city like London or New York.
A plausible counter-argument to Tim’s thesis on AI inequalities is that freely available open-source (or more accurately, “open weight”) models will keep pulling down prices. The US may want frontier models to be built on US chips but it is already losing the global south to Chinese software.

Shape
Shape
Stay Ahead

Explore More Insights

Stay ahead with more perspectives on cutting-edge power, infrastructure, energy,  bitcoin and AI solutions. Explore these articles to uncover strategies and insights shaping the future of industries.

Shape

IP Fabric 7.9 boosts visibility across hybrid environments

Multicloud and hybrid network viability has also been extended to include IPv6 path analysis, helping teams reason about connectivity in dual-stack and hybrid environments. This capability addresses a practical challenge for enterprises deploying IPv6 alongside existing IPv4 infrastructure. Network teams can now validate that applications can reach IPv6 endpoints and

Read More »

Veteran Gas Executive Leaving Mercuria

Steve Hill, who was hired by Mercuria Energy Group in 2024 to build out its liquefied natural gas business, is leaving the trading house. Hill was part of the company’s efforts to expand into the fast-growing global LNG market. Before joining, he was responsible for the vast LNG, gas and power marketing and trading business at energy giant Shell Plc. He was one of a trio of heavyweight hires Mercuria made after reaping bumper profits, setting off a renewed push into trading physical commodities, along with Kostas Bintas in metals and Nick O’Kane in gas and power. Known as one of the world’s biggest traders of oil and gas, the firm has been a relative latecomer behind other trading house rivals in building out a large-scale physical trading business for LNG. During Hill’s relatively brief tenure, Mercuria signed deals to offtake LNG from Oman, as well as supply Turkey and China. He also hired several of his former colleagues from Shell, though one — Singapore-based Dong Yuan — recently left the company. A spokesperson for Mercuria confirmed Hill is leaving the company. Hill didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. WHAT DO YOU THINK? Generated by readers, the comments included herein do not reflect the views and opinions of Rigzone. All comments are subject to editorial review. Off-topic, inappropriate or insulting comments will be removed.

Read More »

Crude Settles Higher After Volatile Week

Oil edged higher at the end of a volatile week, as traders weighed tensions in Iran and positive sentiment in wider markets. West Texas Intermediate settled near $60 a barrel after plunging 4.6% on Thursday, the most since June. President Donald Trump said in a social media post that he “greatly” respects Iran’s decision to cancel scheduled hangings of protesters. His rhetoric over recent days has reduced expectations of an immediate US response to violent protests in the Islamic Republic, which could have led to disruptions to the country’s roughly 3.3 million barrel-per-day oil production, as well as shipping. Nevertheless, Washington is boosting its military presence in the Middle East. At least one aircraft carrier is moving into the region and other military assets are expected to be shifted there in the coming days and weeks, Fox News reported, citing military sources. Traders have in the past covered bearish wagers ahead of the weekend in periods of heightened geopolitical risks. “While the risk of imminent intervention from the US against Iran has subsided, it’s pretty clear that the risk is still present, which should keep the market on its toes in the short term,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV. “However, the longer this goes on without a US response, the risk premium will continue to evaporate, allowing more bearish fundamentals to take center stage.” Disruption to Kazakh exports from the Black Sea, short-term tightness in the North Sea and a host of financial flows from options markets to commodity index rebalancing have also helped lift an oil market coming off its biggest drop since 2020 on rising supplies. In a sign that lower prices are starting to bite, Harold Hamm, the billionaire wildcatter who helped kick off the US shale revolution, said his firm

Read More »

U.S. Energy Secretary and Slovakia’s Prime Minister Sign Agreement to Advance U.S.-Slovakia Civil Nuclear Program

WASHINGTON—U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico today signed an Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) to advance cooperation on Slovakia’s civil nuclear power program. This landmark agreement includes the development of a new, state-owned American 1,200 MWe nuclear unit at the Jaslovské Bohunice Nuclear Power Plant, deepening the U.S.-Slovakia strategic partnership and strengthening European energy security. The agreement builds on President Trump’s commitment to advancing American energy leadership. A project of this scale is expected to create thousands of American jobs across engineering, advanced manufacturing, construction, nuclear fuel services, and project management, while reinforcing U.S. supply chains and expanding access to global markets for American-made nuclear technology. These efforts lay the foundation for sustained U.S. engagement in Slovakia’s nuclear energy program and support future civil nuclear projects across the region. It also supports Slovakia’s efforts to diversify its energy supply, strengthen long-term energy security, and integrate advanced American nuclear technology into Central Europe’s energy infrastructure. “The United States is proud to partner with Slovakia as a trusted ally as we expand cooperation across the energy sector,” said Energy Secretary Chris Wright. “Today’s civil nuclear agreement reflects our shared commitment to strengthening European energy security and sovereignty for decades to come. By deploying America’s leading nuclear technology, we are creating thousands of good-paying American jobs, expanding global markets for U.S. nuclear companies, and driving economic growth at home”. “I see this moment as a significant milestone in our bilateral relations, but also as a clear signal that Slovakia and the United States are united by a common strategic thinking about the future of energy – about its safety, sustainability, and technological maturity,” said the Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic Robert Fico. The planned nuclear unit represents a multibillion-dollar energy infrastructure investment and one of the largest in

Read More »

Valero to Cut 200+ Jobs as California Refinery Closes

Valero Energy Corp. plans to let go of 237 employees at its Benicia refinery as it winds down operations at one of California’s few remaining fuel-making plants. Valero expects the shutdown to be permanent and 237 jobs will be cut March 15 to July 1, the company said in a letter to California’s employment regulator and local officials. Those losing jobs are not represented by a union and represent the bulk of the plant’s 348-person staff.  “We do not plan to coordinate services with the local workforce development board or any other entity,” refinery manager Lauren Bird, whose position is being eliminated, said in the letter. The Texas-based oil company announced in 2025 plans to close the plant and last-ditch efforts by Governor Gavin Newsom, regulators and local officials to keep the gates open were unsuccessful. Multiple California refineries have closed or converted to making biofuels in recent years, dwindling fuel supply in a state where drivers regularly pay the highest gasoline prices in the nation. Last week, Newsom praised plans by Valero to continue supplying the state with gasoline amid the shutdown, saying the decision to import fuel to the region was a constructive development from an earlier possibility of a full-on exit. WHAT DO YOU THINK? Generated by readers, the comments included herein do not reflect the views and opinions of Rigzone. All comments are subject to editorial review. Off-topic, inappropriate or insulting comments will be removed.

Read More »

Trump Administration Calls for Emergency Power Auction to Build Big Power Plants Again

WASHINGTON—U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, vice-chair and chair of the National Energy Dominance Council (NEDC) respectively, today joined Mid-Atlantic governors urging PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. (PJM) to temporarily overhaul its market rules to strengthen grid reliability and reduce electricity costs for American families and businesses by building more than $15 billion of reliable baseload power generation.  The initiative calls on PJM to conduct an emergency procurement auction to address escalating electricity prices and growing reliability risks across the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The action follows a series of PJM policies over the years that have weakened the electric grid, including the premature shutdown of reliable power generation.  President Trump declared a National Energy Emergency on his first day in office, warning that the previous administrations energy subtraction agenda left the country vulnerable to blackouts and soaring electricity prices. During the Biden administration, PJM forced nearly 17 gigawatts of reliable baseload power generation offline. For the first time in history, PJM’s capacity auction failed to secure enough generation resources to meet basic reliability requirements. If not fixed, it will lead to further rising prices and blackouts.  “High electricity prices are a choice,” said Energy Secretary Chris Wright. “The Biden administration’s forceful closures of coal and natural gas plants without reliable replacements left the United States in an energy emergency. Perhaps no region in America is more at risk than in PJM. That’s why President Trump asked governors across the Mid-Atlantic to come together and call upon PJM to allow America to build big reliable power plants again. Our directives will restore affordable and reliable electricity so American families thrive and America’s manufacturing industries once again boom. President Trump promised to unleash American energy and put the American people first. This plan keeps

Read More »

Russian Oil and Gas Revenue Falls to Lowest in 5 Years

Russia’s revenues from its oil and gas industry, vital to financing its war in Ukraine, dropped to a five-year low in 2025 as crude prices slumped and gas exports declined. The nation’s budget received a total of 8.48 trillion rubles ($108 billion) in oil and gas taxes last year, Finance Ministry said on Thursday. That’s 24 percent less than in 2024 and the lowest level since the start of the decade, historic figures show.  Russia, a top-three global oil producer and home to the world’s largest gas reserves, heavily relies on tax revenues from the two industries to fill its state coffers. The decline, mainly driven by a combination of weaker global oil prices, stronger ruble and energy sanctions against Russia, comes as the Kremlin has boosted military spending significantly above what it planned to fund the war, which is about to enter a fifth year. To bridge the widening gap between revenues and spending, the government in Moscow has eaten into more than half of the country’s National Wellbeing Fund – a buffer against economic shocks – and turned to expensive borrowings that will take years to pay back.   Oil revenues dropped more than 22 percent year on year to 7.13 trillion rubles, reaching the lowest level since 2023, Bloomberg calculations show. Concerns about an oversupply in the global crude market, and discounts for Russian barrels in particular due to western sanctions, hit the flow of money into state coffers. The official data show that the average price of Urals, Russia’s main oil-export blend, for tax purposes was $57.65 a barrel in 2025, a 15 percent drop from a year earlier.   Starting from November, when the US blacklisted two major oil producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, the discount of Urals to the Brent benchmark widened to about $27 a barrel at

Read More »

NVIDIA’s Rubin Redefines the AI Factory

The Architecture Shift: From “GPU Server” to “Rack-Scale Supercomputer” NVIDIA’s Rubin architecture is built around a single design thesis: “extreme co-design.” In practice, that means GPUs, CPUs, networking, security, software, power delivery, and cooling are architected together; treating the data center as the compute unit, not the individual server. That logic shows up most clearly in the NVL72 system. NVLink 6 serves as the scale-up spine, designed to let 72 GPUs communicate all-to-all with predictable latency, something NVIDIA argues is essential for mixture-of-experts routing and synchronization-heavy inference paths. NVIDIA is not vague about what this requires. Its technical materials describe the Rubin GPU as delivering 50 PFLOPS of NVFP4 inference and 35 PFLOPS of NVFP4 training, with 22 TB/s of HBM4 bandwidth and 3.6 TB/s of NVLink bandwidth per GPU. The point of that bandwidth is not headline-chasing. It is to prevent a rack from behaving like 72 loosely connected accelerators that stall on communication. NVIDIA wants the rack to function as a single engine because that is what it will take to drive down cost per token at scale. The New Idea NVIDIA Is Elevating: Inference Context Memory as Infrastructure If there is one genuinely new concept in the Rubin announcements, it is the elevation of context memory, and the admission that GPU memory alone will not carry the next wave of inference. NVIDIA describes a new tier called NVIDIA Inference Context Memory Storage, powered by BlueField-4, designed to persist and share inference state (such as KV caches) across requests and nodes for long-context and agentic workloads. NVIDIA says this AI-native context tier can boost tokens per second by up to 5× and improve power efficiency by up to 5× compared with traditional storage approaches. The implication is clear: the path to cheaper inference is not just faster GPUs.

Read More »

Power shortages, carbon capture, and AI automation: What’s ahead for data centers in 2026

“Despite a broader use of AI tools in enterprises and by consumers, that does not mean that AI compute, AI infrastructure in general, will be more evenly spread out,” said Daniel Bizo, research director at Uptime Institute, during the webinar. “The concentration of AI compute infrastructure is only increasing in the coming years.” For enterprises, the infrastructure investment remains relatively modest, Uptime Institute found. Enterprises will limit investment to inference and only some training, and inference workloads don’t require dramatic capacity increases. “Our prediction, our observation, was that the concentration of AI compute infrastructure is only increasing in the coming years by a couple of points. By the end of this year, 2026, we are projecting that around 10 gigawatts of new IT load will have been added to the global data center world, specifically to run generative AI workloads and adjacent workloads, but definitely centered on generative AI,” Bizo said. “This means these 10 gigawatts or so load, we are talking about anywhere between 13 to 15 million GPUs and accelerators deployed globally. We are anticipating that a majority of these are and will be deployed in supercomputing style.” 2. Developers will not outrun the power shortage The most pressing challenge facing the industry, according to Uptime, is that data centers can be built in less than three years, but power generation takes much longer. “It takes three to six years to deploy a solar or wind farm, around six years for a combined-cycle gas turbine plant, and even optimistically, it probably takes more than 10 years to deploy a conventional nuclear power plant,” said Max Smolaks, research analyst at Uptime Institute. This mismatch was manageable when data centers were smaller and growth was predictable, the report notes. But with projects now measured in tens and sometimes hundreds of

Read More »

Google warns transmission delays are now the biggest threat to data center expansion

The delays stem from aging transmission infrastructure unable to handle concentrated power demands. Building regional transmission lines currently takes seven to eleven years just for permitting, Hanna told the gathering. Southwest Power Pool has projected 115 days of potential loss of load if transmission infrastructure isn’t built to match demand growth, he added. These systemic delays are forcing enterprises to reconsider fundamental assumptions about cloud capacity. Regions including Northern Virginia and Santa Clara that were prime locations for hyperscale builds are running out of power capacity. The infrastructure constraints are also reshaping cloud competition around power access rather than technical capabilities. “This is no longer about who gets to market with the most GPU instances,” Gogia said. “It’s about who gets to the grid first.” Co-location emerges as a faster alternative to grid delays Unable to wait years for traditional grid connections, hyperscalers are pursuing co-location arrangements that place data centers directly adjacent to power plants, bypassing the transmission system entirely. Pricing for these arrangements has jumped 20% in power-constrained markets as demand outstrips availability, with costs flowing through to cloud customers via regional pricing differences, Gogia said. Google is exploring such arrangements, though Hanna said the company’s “strong preference is grid-connected load.” “This is a speed to power play for us,” he said, noting Google wants facilities to remain “front of the meter” to serve the broader grid rather than operating as isolated power sources. Other hyperscalers are negotiating directly with utilities, acquiring land near power plants, and exploring ownership stakes in power infrastructure from batteries to small modular nuclear reactors, Hanna said.

Read More »

OpenAI turns to Cerebras in a mega deal to scale AI inference infrastructure

Analysts expect AI workloads to grow more varied and more demanding in the coming years, driving the need for architectures tuned for inference performance and putting added pressure on data center networks. “This is prompting hyperscalers to diversify their computing systems, using Nvidia GPUs for general-purpose AI workloads, in-house AI accelerators for highly optimized tasks, and systems such as Cerebras for specialized low-latency workloads,” said Neil Shah, vice president for research at Counterpoint Research. As a result, AI platforms operating at hyperscale are pushing infrastructure providers away from monolithic, general-purpose clusters toward more tiered and heterogeneous infrastructure strategies. “OpenAI’s move toward Cerebras inference capacity reflects a broader shift in how AI data centers are being designed,” said Prabhu Ram, VP of the industry research group at Cybermedia Research. “This move is less about replacing Nvidia and more about diversification as inference scales.” At this level, infrastructure begins to resemble an AI factory, where city-scale power delivery, dense east–west networking, and low-latency interconnects matter more than peak FLOPS, Ram added. “At this magnitude, conventional rack density, cooling models, and hierarchical networks become impractical,” said Manish Rawat, semiconductor analyst at TechInsights. “Inference workloads generate continuous, latency-sensitive traffic rather than episodic training bursts, pushing architectures toward flatter network topologies, higher-radix switching, and tighter integration of compute, memory, and interconnect.”

Read More »

Cisco’s 2026 agenda prioritizes AI-ready infrastructure, connectivity

While most of the demand for AI data center capacity today comes from hyperscalers and neocloud providers, that will change as enterprise customers delve more into the AI networking world. “The other ecosystem members and enterprises themselves are becoming responsible for an increasing proportion of the AI infrastructure buildout as inferencing and agentic AI, sovereign cloud, and edge AI become more mainstream,” Katz wrote. More enterprises will move to host AI on premises via the introduction of AI agents that are designed to inject intelligent insight into applications and help improve operations. That’s where the AI impact on enterprise network traffic will appear, suggests Nolle. “Enterprises need to host AI to create AI network impact. Just accessing it doesn’t do much to traffic. Having cloud agents access local data center resources (RAG etc.) creates a governance issue for most corporate data, so that won’t go too far either,” Nolle said.  “Enterprises are looking at AI agents, not the way hyperscalers tout agentic AI, but agents running on small models, often open-source, and are locally hosted. This is where real AI traffic will develop, and Cisco could be vulnerable if they don’t understand this point and at least raise it in dialogs where AI hosting comes up,” Nolle said. “I don’t expect they’d go too far, because the real market for enterprise AI networking is probably a couple years out.” Meanwhile, observers expect Cisco to continue bolstering AI networking capabilities for enterprise branch, campus and data centers as well as hyperscalers, including through optical support and other gear.

Read More »

Microsoft tells communities it will ‘pay its way’ as AI data center resource usage sparks backlash

It will work with utilities and public commissions to set the rates it pays high enough to cover data center electricity costs (including build-outs, additions, and active use). “Our goal is straightforward: To ensure that the electricity cost of serving our data centers is not passed on to residential customers,” Smith emphasized. For example, the company is supporting a new rate structure Wisconsin that would charge a class of “very large customers,” including data centers, the true cost of the electricity required to serve them. It will collaborate “early, closely, and transparently” with local utilities to add electricity and supporting infrastructure to existing grids when needed. For instance, Microsoft has contracted with the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) to add 7.9GW of new electricity generation to the grid, “more than double our current consumption,” Smith noted. It will pursue ways to make data centers more efficient. For example, it is already experimenting with AI to improve planning, extract more electricity from existing infrastructure, improve system resilience, and speed development of new infrastructure and technologies (like nuclear energy). It will advocate for state and national public policies that ensure electricity access that is affordable, reliable, and sustainable in neighboring communities. Microsoft previously established priorities for electricity policy advocacy, Smith noted, but “progress has been uneven. This needs to change.” Microsoft is similarly committed when it comes to data center water use, promising four actions: Reducing the overall amount of water its data centers use, initially improving it by 40% by 2030. The company is exploring innovations in cooling, including closed-loop systems that recirculate cooling liquids. It will collaborate with local utilities to map out water, wastewater, and pressure needs, and will “fully fund” infrastructure required for growth. For instance, in Quincy, Washington, Microsoft helped construct a water reuse utility that recirculates

Read More »

Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

Read More »

John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

Read More »

2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

Read More »

OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

Read More »