
Today’s $67 per barrel is only $44 per barrel in 2008-dollars.
That’s what Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said in a SEB report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Wednesday.
“The ‘fair price’ of oil today ($67 per barrel) is nominally not much different from the average prices over the three years to April 2008,” Schieldrop highlighted in the report.
“Since then, we have had 52 percent U.S. inflation. And still the nominal fair price of oil is more or less the same. Today’s $67 per barrel is only $44 per barrel in 2008-dollars,” he added.
“In real terms the world is getting cheaper and cheaper oil – to the joy of consumers and to the terror of oil producers who have to chase every possible avenue of productivity improvements to counter inflation and maintain margins,” Schieldrop continued, noting that, as they successfully do so, “the consequence is a nominal oil price not going up”.
In the report, Schieldrop went on to outline that a “cost-floor of around $40 per barrel” multiplied by “a natural cost inflation-drift of 2.4 percent” comes to $0.96 per barrel. He added that, since 2008, the oil industry has been able to counter this drift with an equal amount of productivity.
“The very stable five year oil price at around $67 per barrel over the past three years, and still the same today, is implying that the market is expecting the global oil industry will be able to counter an ongoing 2.4 percent inflation per year to 2030 with an equal amount of productivity,” Schieldrop said.
“The world consumes 38 billion barrels per year. A productivity improvement of $0.96 per barrel equals $36 billion in productivity/year or $182 billion to 2030,” he added.
Schieldrop outlined in the report that the Brent crude oil price “should have been $101 per barrel today if we hadn’t had any productivity improvements in oil production” since April 2008.
In the report, Schieldrop highlighted that the five year forward contract is “the anchor price of Brent crude” and has “a present price of $67.3 per barrel”. He noted that the five year nominal price of $67.3 per barrel “is the ‘correct price’ today if the global market is balanced”.
“Another way to think about the Brent five year contract price is that it is the price today which the spot price will fluctuate around,” he said.
“The price will trade above when the market is in deficit … [For] example the Brent 1 month contract traded at an average $12.3 per barrel premium to the five year contract during 2023 and 2024 (deficit market) while it now is trading at a discount of $3.6 per barrel (a surplus market),” he added.
“The five year price is thus the ‘correct price’ today if the global oil market is in perfect balance,” he continued.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Thursday morning, SEB Commodities Analyst Ole R. Hvalbye highlighted that Brent had climbed higher “the last 24 hours, holding around $63 per barrel … as the market continues to trade headline to headline on Ukraine diplomacy and renewed geopolitical noise elsewhere”.
Hvalbye said in that report that “supply fundamentals continue to remain the dominant force as we have entered December”.
“OPEC+ is still bringing barrels back, non-OPEC supply growth remains robust, and Chinese demand looks softer into 2026 according to several refiners,” he added.
Hvalbye warned in the report that SEB continues to see the path of least resistance for the oil price as “skewed to the downside”.
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Wednesday, analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said they forecast that Brent crude prices “will remain subdued and volatile, averaging $68.5 per barrel in 2025 and $67.0 per barrel in 2026”.
“Risks are skewed to the downside due to ongoing global oversupply and weak economic momentum,” the BMI analysts said in that report.
In a Stratas Advisors report sent to Rigzone by the Stratas team on Monday, the company highlighted that the price of Brent crude ended the week at $62.32 per barrel after closing the previous week at $61.89 per barrel.
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