There are signs that the long-anticipated supply glut is now hitting the market, with the six-month and 12-month term spreads flipping into contango. That’s what analysts at BMI said in a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Friday, adding that, “sentiment is souring, with the ratio of long to short positions held by managed money in Brent crude falling to 1.8 as of mid-October, its lowest level since April, in the wake of the reciprocal tariff announcements”. “Absent major export disruptions in Russia, prices will remain under pressure over Q4 2025 and into early 2026, amid looser supply-demand fundamentals,” the analysts added. “However, a pause in the OPEC+ supply hikes – and scope for limited market intervention in response to extreme price weakness – should help to put a floor under Brent,” they continued. The BMI analysts noted in the report that, from the second half of 2026, they “expect stronger demand growth, slower supply growth, and healthier market sentiment will foster a recovery in prices”. “That said, this hinges on several key assumptions, including near-term restraint by OPEC+, a meaningful slowdown in the U.S. shale patch, robust import demand in Mainland China, and an improved global macroeconomic backdrop heading into 2027,” the analysts said. The BMI analysts stated in the report that oil prices have come under pressure this month, pointing out that Brent fell to a five-month low of $61 per barrel on October 20, “before partially rebounding to above $64 per barrel at the time of writing on October 23”. “The recent jump was triggered by the announcement that U.S. President Donald Trump was imposing Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia, including sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, two major exporters of Russian oil,” the analysts added. In the report, the BMI analysts highlighted that their