In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group recently, analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, said China’s outlook for shale oil production is improving on the back of accelerated exploration and a series of new discoveries. “State-owned companies are making notable progress in shale oil exploration and production, viewing shale as a key source of future supply as conventional fields mature and face steeper decline rates,” BMI analysts stated in the report. The analysts went on to note that China “has significant potential in shale and tight oil” but said “replicating the U.S. shale boom remains unlikely”. “State-owned companies cite abundant tight oil resources in the Ordos, Junggar, Songliao, Sichuan, Qaidam, Santanghu, Jiyang, North Jiangsu, and Bohai Bay basins,” the analysts said in the report. “These firms are incentivized to pursue high-risk, high-cost projects regardless of global oil prices, given national priorities of energy security and self-sufficiency,” they added. The analysts highlighted that the country’s National Energy Administration reported a 30 percent year on year increase in shale oil output in 2024, “to 6.0 million tons (around 120,000 barrels per day)”. “Although shale currently represents a small share of total production, steady growth is expected,” the BMI analysts stated in the report. “Most projects remain pilots with small capacities relative to conventional developments, and production growth will be constrained by challenging geological conditions,” they added. “Unlike the U.S., exploiting China’s shale oil and gas resources is more challenging due to the complex and deep reservoir geology, lower reserves scattered across valleys, lower well productivity, and higher costs of production,” they continued. “Currently projects produce small volumes between 10,000 barrels per day and 50,000 barrels per day, far lower than conventional fields like Daqing. Although China has made some progress in producing shale oil, the pace of